*** 19-Oct-20 World View -- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
This morning's key headlines from
GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
- Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt protests
- Red shirt protests in 2010
- Returning 'power to the people' in 2014
- Demands to reform Thailand's monarchy
- Brief generational history of Thailand
****
**** Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
****
![[Image: g201018b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g201018b.jpg)
Pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok hold up their mobile phones as they rally in defiance of the government's emergency declaration (EPA)
Thailand's military junta government is in crisis after five
continuous days of anti-government protests in Bangkok by thousands of
protesters, mostly young students, demanding that army general Prayuth
Chan-ocha step down as prime minister. Protests are also spreading to
other provinces.
A new aspect of these protests is the demand that the monarchy
be reformed. In the past, protesters have not made this kind
of demand, since criticizing the monarchy in Thailand is
considered a severe violation of the law.
On Friday, police in Bangkok used a water cannon with chemical-laced
water that stings the eyes to repel thousands of pro-democracy
protesters. However, the protesters were mostly young students, and
some were children, and so the police have been heavily criticized for
attacking children with chemical laced water.
The protests began in July, and reached tens of thousands of
protesters on some days in the last few days. The protesters have
been copying some of the tactics of the Hong Kong pro-democracy
protests of last year, forming flash mobs that scatter when confronted
by police, but then form a new protest in another place.
Dozens of pro-democracy activists have been jailed, but that hasn't
stopped the protests, as they've used online communications to play
cat and mouse with the police.
The protesters used "pop-up demonstrations" to outfox the police,
leaving the police protecting an empty intersection, while they
gathered at another intersection.
The protesters are mostly young people, born since the late 1990s, who
have known only coups, protests and military governments during their
lifetime. Many of them have vivid memories of 2010, when the Bangkok
army, led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, used tanks and live fire to
disperse and kill "red shirt" protesters in Bangkok.
The most recent coup occurred in May 2014, when a military junta led
by General Prayuth Chan-ocha overthrew the democratically elected
government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, and made Prayuth the
prime minister.
****
**** Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt protests
****
The core issue in Thailand is that there are two ethnic groups, and
the ones in charge are in the minority, and the minority is repressing
the majority ethnic group. In any country, this would be a situation
resulting in riots, protests or even civil war, and Thailand is no
exception.
The vast majority of Thailand's population are the dark-skinned lower
class indigenous people, also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts,"
comprising about 3/4 of the population, living mostly in the northern
and northeastern regions of Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly
to work in menial jobs as servants of the Thai-Chinese.
The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned
descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country
to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live
mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the
indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior.
What this means is that if Thailand holds a free and fair election,
and race is an issue, as it always is, then the indigenous Thai-Thai
red shirts are going to win every time, much to the distress of the
élite Thai-Chinese in Bangkok.
In the 2000s decade, an extremely charismatic leader Thaksin
Shinawatra became prime minister in 2001. He was born in Chiang Mai,
a city in northern Thailand with a long history of restive opposition
to control by Bangkok. In office, he implemented a number of programs
that were favored by the large mass of rural Thai-Thai voters in the
northeast of the country. Thaksin became very popular with the poor
rural voters in the north and northeast, but he angered the wealthier,
better educated elite population in the southern areas around Bangkok.
When he was reelected in 2005, the army staged a bloodless coup that
overthrew Thaksin's government, and forced Thaksin into exile. There
were new elections in 2007, and a Thaksin's party easily won control
of the government, and named a Thaksin ally as prime minister.
The new prime minister, Samak Sundaravej took office in December 2007.
This is where everything turned to farce. Apparently Samak is also
quite a good amateur cook, and for many years he hosted a televised
cooking show. He kept on with the cooking show after he became Prime
Minister, causing a court to remove him from office, because the
cooking show represented a conflict of interest with his job as Prime
Minister.
So Samak Sundaravej was ousted because he had a cooking show, and the
parliament, still controlled by Thaksin's party, then named Somchai
Wongsawat, another Thaksin ally, as prime minister. That's when the
"yellow shirt" protests began.
It became clear to the élite in Bangkok that the indigenous Thai-Thai
were going to keep on winning, so the yellow-shirt Thai-Chinese held
massive protests in 2008, mostly peaceful, but shutting down the
entire city, including the airport. Samak Sundaravej was forced to
resign, and the army installed a Thai-Chinese prime minister, Abhisit
Vejjajiva.
****
**** Red shirt protests in 2010
****
At the beginning of April 2010, the "red shirt" protests began,
demanding that Abhisit Vejjajiva resign, followed by new elections.
Of course, new elections would mean a new red-shirt political victory.
Masses of protesters occupied Bangkok's high-class shopping district,
forcing stores to close, and leading to a state of emergency. Army
troops attempted to clear the protestors on April 10, but suffered a
humiliating defeat, with 25 people killed, and hundreds injured.
The protests finally ended in May when the Thai army ran tanks through
their barricades and assaulted them with live ammunition, and after
the most radical elements of the protestors retaliated by burning down
shopping centers and the stock exchange. The violence left civilians
on both sides extremely bitter.
So in 2011 there was another election. The party of Thaksin
Shinawatra's political party easily won the parliamentary election
decisively again, as was obvious that it would, and the parliament
selected a new prime minister -- Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of
Thaksin, who was still in exile in Dubai. And to add the comedy, she
said the following:
<QUOTE>I am ready to fight according to the rules and I ask
for the opportunity to prove myself. I ask for your trust as you
used to trust my brother. I will utilise my femininity to work
fully for our country."<END QUOTE>
Well, the misogynists in the Thai-Chinese élite somehow weren't
fully charmed by Yingluck's femininity.
****
**** Returning 'power to the people' in 2014
****
In December 2013, yellow shirt rioters were back in the street again,
with anti-government protests. About 30,000 "yellow shirt" rioters
occupied government buildings and hurled stones and petrol bombs at
police, who fired back tear gas. At least four people were killed and
dozens injured. The anti-government yellow shirt leader Suthep
Thaugsuban met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and gave her a
48 hour ultimatum "to return power to the people."
Was Suthep calling for new elections? Obviously not, since that would
just mean another victory for the hated dark-skinned Thai-Thai
indigenous red shirt majority. It turned out that what he meant was
that he was demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's
Council" select the next prime minister. Presumably, the People's
Council would be packed with Thai-Chinese.
What the yellow-shirts were objecting to was a rice-subsidy scheme
that Yingluck began in 2011 that paid rice farmers above market rate
for their crop. This pleased the Thai-Thai rice farmers in the north
around Chiang Mai, but it cost the government $21 billion, and
infuriated the powerful élite Thai-Chinese opposition in Bangkok.
A month later, in January 2014, Yingluck offered to resign and call
for new elections, but the yellow shirt élite protesters forced the
new election to be called off because they knew that Yingluck's party
would win.
In Thailand, the Thai-Chinese elites are backed by the monarchy, the
army and the courts. So in May 2014, the courts ruled that Yingluck
and her government should be impeached because of the rice subsidy.
Then they used the courts to appoint the "People's Council" described
above.
However, General Prayuth Chan-ocha didn't wait that long. He seized
control of the government two days later, and announced on Thai
television:
<QUOTE>"In order for the situation to return to normal
quickly and for society to love and be at peace again ... and to
reform the political, economic and social structure, the military
needs to take control of power."<END QUOTE>
Love and peace - more comedy. In 2017, Yingluck was convicted of
corruption, but the army looked the other way when she fled the
country, fearing popular riots from her supporters. Yingluck is now
in exile with her brother Thaksin.
After the 2014 coup, Prayuth promised to hold elections in
early 2015, then in 2016, and then in November 2018, canceling
them each time. Finally he held a rigged election in March
2019, which he won.
That brings us to 2020, and new protests by the Thai-Thai red shirts.
Many of these protesters were young children when General Prayuth used
bullets and tanks to disperse and kill their parents and older
brothers and sisters during the red shirt protests in 2011.
The army is being criticized for using water cannons on the protesters
on Friday, since the water contained burning chemicals, and many of
the protesters were children.
****
**** Demands to reform Thailand's monarchy
****
The ruling élite face the continuing problem that 3/4 of Thailand's
population are the hated dark-skinned indigenous Thai-Thai red shirts,
and they will win any election in a democracy. The ruling élite may
have found a solution: Restore the monarchy so that the King is ruling
again, and there are no more elections. No more democracy.
The problem with this solution is that the current king is so
scandal-ridden and so unpopular that any solution like this would lead
to a further backlash among red shirts, and possibly even among yellow
shirts.
Thailand's previous king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, also known as Rama IX,
was born on December 5, 1927, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He was on
the throne in Thailand since 1946, and so until his death on October
13, 2016, he was ever-present as King of Thailand, and the only
monarch that almost every resident of Thailand had ever known.
Bhumibol had been a calming voice that had seen Thailand through
multiple national crises, including several coups and military
takeovers, and so he was highly revered, so much so that the country
has passed so-called "lèse-majesté" laws that make it a crime to even
criticize the monarchy.
Despite his being 88 years old, Bhumibol's death in 2016 still came as
a shock to the Thai people, probably most of all to the person next in
line for the throne, the highly unpopular 62-year-old Crown Prince
Maha Vajiralongkorn. Vajiralongkorn was an international playboy,
living mostly in Germany, who had been divorced four times, and who
had disowned his own children by one of the wives. So he didn't even
want to be king, but he reluctantly assumed the throne a year later,
under pressure from the army, and became King Rama X.
Vajiralongkorn's numerous scandals and his reported cruelty to his
wives and servants have made him a target of the protesters. However,
even a mild criticism can make someone liable for arrest under the
"lèse-majesté" laws. In fact, the army junta has made draconian use
of the lèse-majesté as a tool for jailing dissidents.
The protesters are demanding that the monarchy be reformed. They're
particularly critical of his vast wealth and his taking personal
control of $40 billion of Thailand's financial assets.
The élite have decided that they can no longer hold elections, since
the hated Thai-Thai red shirts will always win. Prayuth denies that
there are plans to replace the democracy with a new monarchy ruled by
Vajiralongkorn. However, Vajiralongkorn's act in taking control of
$40 billion of Thailand's assets leads many to believe that replacing
the democracy with a monarchy is just a step away.
****
**** Brief generational history of Thailand
****
Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra were born in Chiang Mai in northern
Thailand. Chiang Mai is the red shirt stronghold, and plays an
important part in Thailand's history.
Chiang Mai was built in 1296 to be the capital city of the Lanna
Kingdom (the kingdom of a million rice fields). The Lanna kingdom was
successfully invaded and incorporated into Burma as a vassal state in
1557. Over the next 200 years Chiang Mai fell at various times under
the rule of the strongest invader, be it Burma or Siam.
In 1774, Siam finally drove the Burmese out of the Lanna Kingdom. The
Lanna Kingdom eventually became part of Siam in 1892. The Lanna
Kingdom was gradually dissolved and condensed into an area centered
around Chiang Mai. 1932 the whole Chiang Mai area officially became a
province of Siam.
Thailand's King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early
1830s when he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a
Vietnamese army.
Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern
Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in
southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country,
mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule
were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the southern
Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war.
By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in
1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani,
consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and
Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the
province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement
established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia.
During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was
faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim
population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the
generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932
overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government
that promised a high degree of political participation of the
Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening
era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more
Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced
assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success, as
resistance and rebellion have continued since then.
The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to
the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the
indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control
of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the
indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority.
Thailand's next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing
fields" war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge
government, backed by China, killed up to 3 million people in a
massive genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the
form of a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King
Bhumibol (Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the
communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage
anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally
killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands
forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party.
The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's
doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the
Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present
time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling
era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s.
During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military coup
of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern Muslims,
only to have it taken away a few years later.
During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free
elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai, and now
that's been taken away by a military junta.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Sources:
- Thai protest leaders play cat and mouse with police as thousands rally (Guardian, London, 18-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok Thailand / 'We are all leaders today': Arrests don't stop Thai protests (Reuters, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thailand’s celebs break silence on protests, demand changes (Manila Standard / AFP, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thailand's 'Hunger Games' crisis has its roots in dismal economics (Nikkei Asia, 18-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok Thailand / Protesters rally as BTS, MRT shut down (Bangkok Post, 17-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok protests: Thailand's ‘Tahrir Square’ moment (Free Press Journal, India, 17-Oct-2020)
- Thailand: Protesters take to Bangkok streets despite warning (Al-Jazeera, 17-Oct-2020)
- Thailand / Sign pointing to confrontation during student protests in Bangkok (En24 News, India, 17-Oct-2020)
- So who are these Thai students, and what are the protests about? (The Thaiger, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thai police fire water cannon at Bangkok protesters (Al-Jazeera, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thai protesters rally in Bangkok defying state of emergency (Al-Jazeera, 15-Oct-2020)
- Thailand Braces for Fresh Round of Pro-Democracy Protests (Diplomat, 13-Oct-2020)
- Maha Vajiralongkorn / A royal bubble bursts: Thailand’s king faces trouble on two continents (LA Times, 16-Oct-2020)
- Protests in Thailand are a 'double whammy' for the economy, which is reeling from Covid-19 (CNBC, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thailand latest: Protesters show up in droves despite rain (Nikkei Asia, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thailand / Water cannon used on protesters (Bangkok Post, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thai Protesters Defy New State of Emergency (Foreign Policy, 15-Oct-2020)
- red-white shirts / Progressive politics in Thailand’s polarised polity (Lowy Institute, 16-Oct-2020)
- King Maha Vajiralongkorn / Thailand’s king seeks to bring back absolute monarchy (Economist, 14-Oct-2020)
- 2010 Red Shirt rallies in Bangkok / Reds protest peacefully (Bangkok Post, 20-Sep-2010)
- Thailand / La Na / Lanna Kingdom - Chiang Mai - Short History (Visit Chiang Mai)
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Siam, Prayuth Chan-ocha,
Thai-Thai, red shirts, Thai-Chinese, yellow shirts,
Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Samak Sundaravej,
Somchai Wongsawat, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suthep Thaugsuban,
Bhumibol Adulyadej, Rama IX, Maha Vajiralongkorn, Rama X,
lèse-majesté laws, Chiang Mai, Lanna Kingdom, Burma,
Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat,
China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields
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