Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

Polling averages Oct.24, 8:30 PM EDT, edit Oct.25 4 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
Biden declining from his 10.7 high a week ago to 9.1 today. FL, AZ and NC back into tossup status.
Trump may have gained from the debate after all, when he reminded folks in PA and OH that they are going to have to switch from fossil fuels. Some folks there want to hang on to their dirty money regardless of the climate. Also, Biden is open to reforming the Court. It will be necessary with Barrett having been rammed onto it against the rules. But it may have reduced his numbers. Biden still won the debate. He showed himself fully in command, so that will probably keep his numbers from tanking much more.

National Biden +9.1

Alaska Trump +6
Arizona Biden +2.6
Florida Biden +2.4
Georgia Biden +0.4
Indiana Trump +10.1
Iowa Biden +1.3
Kansas Trump +9.2
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.1
Michigan Biden +7.6
Minnesota Biden +7.9
Missouri Trump +6.5
Montana Trump +6.8
Nevada Biden +6.6
New Hampshire Biden +11.2
North Carolina Biden +2.9
Ohio Trump +1.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.7
South Carolina Trump +7.5
Texas Trump +0.1
Wisconsin Biden +6.6

[pbrower2a]

OK. Consider this scenario: Anne Romney, Mitt's wife, does not have MS. Mitt and Anne Romney are able to participate in the grueling struggle to win the Presidency. Mitt Romney decides that the only reason that he lost in 2012 was that he faced a strong incumbent who had made few mistakes as President but would have a strong chance in an open-seat election. Promising to unleash the full power of free enterprise and free markets as a solution to the last economic distress under Obama, he faces Hillary Clinton... and wins because Hillary Clinton made much the same mistakes. Mitt Romney was born in Michigan, but he effectively has three home states: Michigan, New Hampshire, and Utah.



(blue -- Romney; red-Clinton. Pale shades are for states and districts decided by less than 5%, middle shades for states and districts decided by 5-9.99%; dark shades for states decided by

It is much like the reality of 2016. Romney does not win Pennsylvania, but he wins by picking of Michigan and Wisconsin, which are surprises, and New Hampshire. Clinton barely holds onto Colorado, Minnesota, and Virginia.

A scenario like this allows me to "retrodict" a counterfactual 2016 election:

M. Romney 289
H. Clinton 248

Clinton wins the popular vote only because she is able to run up the vote in a few states that she does win (CA and NY, largely), as in 2016.

It is a close election, but as Dubya showed, one can win following a bare win in the Electoral College if one of three things go right:

1. Nothing really goes wrong, or things that eventually go wrong don't implode until the second term
2. The President makes no glaring errors
3. The President is able to address some hazard effectively and decisively.

Romney is able to replace Obamacare with a system of mandatory participation in for-profit medical insurance, exemptions being related to a subsidize3d system for military veterans and their families, disabled people, and for Social Security. Poor? Work! Nothing good comes cheaply, and the system that best fits the plutocratic heritage of America has profits above all else with competition among profiteers (aside from the monopolistic Big Pharma). There are plenty of jobs opening in the new system. It may not be perfect -- but nothing good comes cheap.

Plenty of jobs appear in the insurance industry and for domestic servants (economic inequality intensifies, of course), and people are working more hours -- largely at second jobs just to make things meet. youth are obliged to pay their way, so kids are flocking even more to retail and restaurant jobs and saving retailers such as JC Penney, Sears, Radio Shack, Perkins', and so on -- which thrive because they have smart people working for them cheaply. Nothing, including convenience and economic security, comes cheap.

Romney's foreign policy is more of the same. He has a huge success in foreign policy as Secretary of State Jon Huntsman cuts a deal good for everyone in the general area of the Korean Peninsula. The People's Republic accepts the existence of its old bogey, the remnant of the republic that had largely been overthrown in 1949... as the independent Republic of Taiwan, which renounces all claims to represent any part of mainland China . China (of course there is now only one China even if it does not include Taiwan), South Korea, Taiwan, Russia, and Japan concur on a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and on the dismantling of North Korean nukes. North Korea is obliged to return persons kidnapped from Japan to Japan. North Korean missile and germ-warfare programs? To be dismantled. Counterfeit US (and other) currency? Stopped.

COVID-19 appears in China... but Romney is able to get a nationwide lockdown with the cooperation of Democratic pols who know which way the wind is blowing. Romney uses martial rhetoric against a dangerous virus, and Americans do not have the divisions that happen in "Earth 1", with the bumbling and cruel Donald Trump as President. Romney addresses the issue of statues of Confederate statues in southern cities by suggesting alternatives -- like heroes of other American wars. Pershing, MacArthur, Patton, Bradley, Clark, Ridgway, Schwarzkopf... and of the Civil Rights struggle. Political and military figures who waged a war to keep the great-great-great grandparents of current black boys and girls in bondage are no more viable heroes than Frank and Jesse James, Al Capone, John Dillinger, Clyde Barrow, Bonnie Parker, Carlo Gambino, or Meyer Lansky. The Alt-Right finds no semblance of a friend in the White House.

Still the polarization remains in 2020, and some changes happen:




The Democratic nominee goes all out to win Florida and Wisconsin, and succeeds at that, swinging 39 electoral votes toward the Democratic nominee. That should be enough... except that Romney wins over Maine at large, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Only five states flip from 2016. On the whole Romney loses only four electoral votes from 2016 in a similar election. Such becomes an electoral "four-peat", reinforcing the idea that effective Presidents, or at least those who get away with their errors for four years (the infamous inverted-yield curve that portends recessions returns in October, but few voters understand what that means) get re-elected.

This is of course hypothetical. Donald Trump lacks a moral compass, overall competence, or principle.. and that looks set to doom Trump's chances of re-election.

[Eric the Green]

I think Biden needs to win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona to win. That's 334. Right now, Iowa and Georgia are tilting his way, plus Maine CD-2. He really needs those too. That's 357. The election will be decided in Barrett's Supreme Court. Biden needs to win a lot of states and electoral votes in order to convince It of the folly of overturning lower court rulings against Trump's charges that mail-in ballots are fraudulent and the count went on too long. Usually most Courts pay attention to evidence. The 5-vote extremist majority of right-wing ideologues may not do this.

This is how it might go if things go well, then.

[pbrower2a]

Florida could now be a bigger marginal loss to Trump than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. I am guessing that Michigan is dead to Trump. Thus this is possible:

Trump losses 2016 232
Michigan 248
Florida 277

--or --

Trump losses 2016 232
Michigan 248
Wisconsin 258
Florida 287

[Eric the Green]

But if current trends continue it will probably look like this:



But I'm sure Classic Xer and James Glick would give even more states to the drump.

Nate Silver has a new probabilities map:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...ction-map/

[Eric the Green]

Polling averages Oct.25, 11 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
The polls are still a bit unsettled from hour to hour. Biden declining from his 10.7 high a week ago to 9.2 today. FL and NC back into tossup status, and AZ wobbling back and forth on the edge. White voters in red states, especially in the heart of Dixie, seem ready to roll over and line-up more solidly behind their racist dear leader, and senate races in KS and SC may be affected. But some of the swing states such as MI and WI seem to be holding steady or getting bluer. Montana's red tinge, with its important senate race, is getting lighter, and Texas may be flipping. Biden's lead in California has been trimmed by about 2 points in recent days, which can move the national needle. But CO is getting more blue.

CA will count mail-in and early ballots as soon as they come in, and FL, NC and AZ will count ballots fast. If Biden can hold his slim lead in the sun belt swing states, the election might be called before election night is over. If not, since counting in PA, MI and WI will be slow we might not know for weeks. And Trump's Court challenges will be stronger.

National Biden +9.2

Alaska Trump +6.1
Arizona Biden +3
Florida Biden +2.4
Georgia Biden +0.4
Indiana Trump +10.1
Iowa Biden +1.2
Kansas Trump +10
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.1
Michigan Biden +8
Minnesota Biden +8
Missouri Trump +6.6
Montana Trump +6.7
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +11.2
North Carolina Biden +2.5
Ohio Trump +1.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.6
South Carolina Trump +8.5
Texas even
Utah Trump +10
Wisconsin Biden +6.7

[Eric the Green]

If Florida and North Carolina stay in Biden's camp, an election call on election night/early morning for Biden may look like this.

[Eric the Green]

Polling averages Oct 26 7:30 PM EDT, edited Oct 27, 9:30 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +9.0

Alaska Trump +6.4
Arizona Biden +2.8
Florida Biden +2.4
Georgia Biden +1.2
Indiana Trump +9.0
Iowa Biden +1.2
Kansas Trump +9.3
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.1
Michigan Biden +8.3
Minnesota Biden +7.9
Missouri Trump +6.6
Montana Trump +6.8
Nevada Biden +7.1
New Hampshire Biden +11.1
North Carolina Biden +2.4
Ohio Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania Biden +5.3
South Carolina Trump +7.9
Texas Trump +1.3
Utah Trump +10.6
Wisconsin Biden +7.1

[jleagans]

Y’all I live in Austin Texas and Texas is going real blue . We’re not leading the early turnout for nothing , and if you look at the trends from 2012 to 2016 and just extend them...this is predictable .

[David Horn]

(10-27-2020, 01:46 AM)jleagans Wrote: Y’all I live in Austin Texas and Texas is going real blue . We’re not leading the early turnout for nothing , and if you look at the trends from 2012 to 2016 and just extend them...this is predictable .

Yah, but Austin isn't the rest of the state.  I'm sure you're bluish, but Truly Blue is a future event.

[Isoko]

I just checked the Rasmussen poll. Now obviously concern about Rasmussen but I remember they were the only poll last time to pick up on the Trump win where the others like five thirty eight had a heavy lead for Clinton. 

Rasmussen had Biden solidly in the lead a few weeks ago. It's looking like by their estimates, the polls are narrowing in to neck and neck territory. They had Trump 1 point ahead of Biden yesterday and now Biden 2 points ahead of Trump. 

Sky News had a video early today too pointing out that Trump and Biden are neck on neck in Pensylvania. So it's looking like we are getting close to 2016 territory again. Trump is strongly back on the campaign trial, showing strength after covid. His crowds are bigger then Bidens and he's mobilising the base again. 

Honestly, I thought Biden had this. However, I am beginning to think this is going to be not an outright Trump win like last time but a closely fought battle that could be decided by the supreme Court, as Eric pointed out. 

Astrologically speaking, I did a bit of reading what others are saying and they are pointing to similar conclusions. This is going to be one rough election and heavily contested by both sides.

[Eric the Green]

(10-27-2020, 12:04 PM)Isoko Wrote: I just checked the Rasmussen poll. Now obviously concern about Rasmussen but I remember they were the only poll last time to pick up on the Trump win where the others like five thirty eight had a heavy lead for Clinton. 

Rasmussen had Biden solidly in the lead a few weeks ago. It's looking like by their estimates, the polls are narrowing in to neck and neck territory. They had Trump 1 point ahead of Biden yesterday and now Biden 2 points ahead of Trump. 

Sky News had a video early today too pointing out that Trump and Biden are neck on neck in Pensylvania. So it's looking like we are getting close to 2016 territory again. Trump is strongly back on the campaign trial, showing strength after covid. His crowds are bigger then Bidens and he's mobilising the base again. 

Honestly, I thought Biden had this. However, I am beginning to think this is going to be not an outright Trump win like last time but a closely fought battle that could be decided by the supreme Court, as Eric pointed out. 

Astrologically speaking, I did a bit of reading what others are saying and they are pointing to similar conclusions. This is going to be one rough election and heavily contested by both sides.

The issue seems to be whether the election can be called on election night. For that to happen Florida and North Carolina need to be projected or called for Biden, and that's where the election could be close. Now they have fallen to about 2% Biden, and they could fall further. Meanwhile, in 2 even-closer states, Georgia and Iowa, Biden's polls are rising.

If it comes down to the rust-belt midwest, then counting will take longer and Trump could more-likely bring the election to the Barrett Court. That could be the end of democracy in the USA, and will rile up the blue side to virtual revolution and secession.

[Eric the Green]

Polling averages Oct 27 7 PM EDT, edit Oct.28, 8:30 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +9.0

Alaska Trump +6.3
Arizona Biden +2.9
Florida Biden +1.9
Georgia Biden +1.1
Indiana Trump +9.0
Iowa Biden +1.7
Kansas Trump +9.4
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.9
Michigan Biden +8.1
Minnesota Biden +9.1
Missouri Trump +6.6
Montana Trump +5.7
Nevada Biden +6.4
New Hampshire Biden +11.3
North Carolina Biden +2.0
Ohio Trump +1.7
Pennsylvania Biden +5.3
South Carolina Trump +7.7
Texas Trump +1.4
Utah Trump +10.6
Wisconsin Biden +9

[Classic-Xer]

(10-27-2020, 05:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-27-2020, 12:04 PM)Isoko Wrote: I just checked the Rasmussen poll. Now obviously concern about Rasmussen but I remember they were the only poll last time to pick up on the Trump win where the others like five thirty eight had a heavy lead for Clinton. 

Rasmussen had Biden solidly in the lead a few weeks ago. It's looking like by their estimates, the polls are narrowing in to neck and neck territory. They had Trump 1 point ahead of Biden yesterday and now Biden 2 points ahead of Trump. 

Sky News had a video early today too pointing out that Trump and Biden are neck on neck in Pensylvania. So it's looking like we are getting close to 2016 territory again. Trump is strongly back on the campaign trial, showing strength after covid. His crowds are bigger then Bidens and he's mobilising the base again. 

Honestly, I thought Biden had this. However, I am beginning to think this is going to be not an outright Trump win like last time but a closely fought battle that could be decided by the supreme Court, as Eric pointed out. 

Astrologically speaking, I did a bit of reading what others are saying and they are pointing to similar conclusions. This is going to be one rough election and heavily contested by both sides.

The issue seems to be whether the election can be called on election night. For that to happen Florida and North Carolina need to be projected or called for Biden, and that's where the election could be close. Now they have fallen to about 2% Biden, and they could fall further. Meanwhile, in 2 even-closer states, Georgia and Iowa, Biden's polls are rising.

If it comes down to the rust-belt midwest, then counting will take longer and Trump could more-likely bring the election to the Barrett Court. That could be the end of democracy in the USA, and will rile up the blue side to virtual revolution and secession.

It's funny how democracy may/could put an end to democracy as you see it. It's to bad we live in a democratic republic instead of a pure democracy like other countries.

[Eric the Green]

(10-27-2020, 07:51 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-27-2020, 05:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-27-2020, 12:04 PM)Isoko Wrote: I just checked the Rasmussen poll. Now obviously concern about Rasmussen but I remember they were the only poll last time to pick up on the Trump win where the others like five thirty eight had a heavy lead for Clinton. 

Rasmussen had Biden solidly in the lead a few weeks ago. It's looking like by their estimates, the polls are narrowing in to neck and neck territory. They had Trump 1 point ahead of Biden yesterday and now Biden 2 points ahead of Trump. 

Sky News had a video early today too pointing out that Trump and Biden are neck on neck in Pensylvania. So it's looking like we are getting close to 2016 territory again. Trump is strongly back on the campaign trial, showing strength after covid. His crowds are bigger then Bidens and he's mobilising the base again. 

Honestly, I thought Biden had this. However, I am beginning to think this is going to be not an outright Trump win like last time but a closely fought battle that could be decided by the supreme Court, as Eric pointed out. 

Astrologically speaking, I did a bit of reading what others are saying and they are pointing to similar conclusions. This is going to be one rough election and heavily contested by both sides.

The issue seems to be whether the election can be called on election night. For that to happen Florida and North Carolina need to be projected or called for Biden, and that's where the election could be close. Now they have fallen to about 2% Biden, and they could fall further. Meanwhile, in 2 even-closer states, Georgia and Iowa, Biden's polls are rising.

If it comes down to the rust-belt midwest, then counting will take longer and Trump could more-likely bring the election to the Barrett Court. That could be the end of democracy in the USA, and will rile up the blue side to virtual revolution and secession.

It's funny how democracy may/could put an end to democracy as you see it. It's to bad we live in a democratic republic instead of a pure democracy like other countries.

No, the problem i'm mentioning here is that your supreme court could put an end to democracy, if the race is too close and the issue comes before these idiots.

And no, it is not funny.

You guys really seem to have a love affair with the post office. You are telling me you believe a letter can be mailed and get there the same day, or even the next day? Or maybe next week? Yet your goons on the Court think a ballot should not be counted unless it arrives at the registrar on the day of the election? Your trump goons only care about your side's own stupid power and greed.

Who knows, Biden just jumped up in the polls to 9.0 in Wisconsin, thanks to the ABC/Washington Post poll whom Nate Silver rates as A+. If it's right, maybe Trump is paying a price for his supreme crap's decision.

[Eric the Green]

(10-27-2020, 01:46 AM)jleagans Wrote: Y’all I live in Austin Texas and Texas is going real blue . We’re not leading the early turnout for nothing , and if you look at the trends from 2012 to 2016 and just extend them...this is predictable .

We're rootin fer ya!

[pbrower2a]

(10-28-2020, 06:41 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-27-2020, 01:46 AM)jleagans Wrote: Y’all I live in Austin Texas and Texas is going real blue . We’re not leading the early turnout for nothing , and if you look at the trends from 2012 to 2016 and just extend them...this is predictable .

We're rootin fer ya!

Charlie Cook, who is slow to assess any Democratic chance favorably, now rates Texas a toss-up due to conflicting polls, as I do..

[pbrower2a]

[quote author=pbrower2a link=topic=407194.msg7689843#msg7689843 date=1603726649 uid=3398]


lead and likelihood of winning at one week before the election:

L  %W
0    50
1    60
2    67   
3    76   
4    85   
5    89
6    92   
7    94   
8    96 
9    97
10  98

Directly from Nate Silver's probabilities of wins in Senate races with one week left in the race; others interpolated

Numbers on states indicate chances of a Biden win; subtract from 100 for the chance of a Trump win.




Except that I do not have an extremely-recent number for Arizona,  Iowa, Ohio, ME-02, or NE-02, this is all that you need to know at this point. Trashy, falsehood-laden, garbage polls (you know from whom) do not count.

[/quote]

As I have said ad nauseam. politics is a timed contest, and unlike football, basketball, and hockey, it is the calendar and not the clock that eventually decides the event.

I saw one poll of Florida, and early voting was heavy enough and D-leaning enough that the votes that remained could not keep Trump from losing his adopted state. Florida will be close, but ... in an area rich in dangerous top predators, the alligator is in its death roll, the python is squeezing the life out of the victim, the cougar or pack of dogs has severed the spinal cord with bites, or the shark-bite is causing fatal blood loss to Trump's chances.

Nate Silver has simulations of random results for the 2020 election, but he seems to have stopped offering it. It may be that Trump chances have gone into the black hole. When Trump was projected to have something like a 13% chance of winning based upon him winning such states as Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maine, and New Hampshire there were no possible Trump wins in which he lost any of the following states:

Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas

I now give Biden about an 85% chance of winning Iowa, which is far from where I saw Iowa (Biden could win it but everything had to go right) Iowa was not going to go to Biden unless Biden was winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Arizona looked like a harder win for Biden than is Wisconsin, but it counts the same (that assessment remains). Biden wins Ohio (which I consider a genuine toss-up) only if he also wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, which seems now to be a lock. Michigan and Florida are enough to put Biden over the top; North Carolina and Georgia both indicate a monumental loss for Trump. I see no reason to tell anyone that Biden wins Texas only of he is getting 400 or more electoral votes, but Biden has an outside chance of doing that. He must of course win Texas, which is very close to being a toss-up.

Except for Nevada (where Biden is up 6%, which is lethal for Trump's chances at this point anyway), every state that Trump lost in 2016 is going to Biden by at least 10%. Michigan is gone.

[Isoko]

I'm still looking at the Rasmussen poll. The Trafalgar poll I am a sceptic on and I agree with Eric and Pbrower on that one. However the Rasmussen poll is interesting. 

They did accurately predict the huge Biden lead two weeks ago when he was actually 12 points ahead. Then a week ago they dropped it to 5 points ahead. Now today they have Trump 1 point ahead of Biden with the potentiality of a Florida win.

I think if Trump was doing really badly, Rasmussen wouldnt change the polls so drastically. 

That said, I think it's only Trumps base who are super charged to turn out for him. I think that last time around in 2016, you did have moderates who held their noses and voted for Trump because they did not like Hilary Clinton. Those moderates this time around I think will back Biden because of the covid thing.

Plus when I check out the tweets that Trump posts, the responses are usually very negative towards him. 

I don't know honestly. If I was to offer advice, I would say better to stay on the side of caution and take note of the Rasmussen poll as it could be indicating the mood of where things are going.

[Eric the Green]

Polling averages Oct.29, 2 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
The Supreme Court decided to cut off votes from mail-in ballots received after election day, so I figure this vote suppression makes it necessary to have about 5% or better margin to be a leaning state for Biden. So I am putting PA as tossup. Democrats in Philadelphia have been estimated as voting by mail by a margin of 17-1. This could disenfranchise the state when the decision comes down. North Carolina as well as PA could also be disenfranchised by this method, according to reports about pending lawsuits. This has already happened to Wisconsin, but the margin for Biden is about 8 to 9% there. I wonder how many more states the Trump Court could do this to, even after election day. If they are going to do this, then I assume the Democrats will need to add 4 justices to the Court right away if we are going to get our democracy back-- IF they still get control. This method could cut this off too.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/supreme.../id/994083
© Copyright 2020 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.

Update: Barrett did not participate as the Court refused to overturn the lower court decision to allow counting of absentee ballots in PA AND NC postmarked by Nov.3 but which arrive after election day. So I put PA back to lean Biden. Barrett says she did not have time yet to read about the case. If Biden can hold on and win in these two states, he wins. But the Supreme Court could decide to take up these cases after the election, so nothing is settled.

75 million already voted.

National Biden +9.0

Alaska Trump +7.4
Arizona Biden +2.8
Florida Biden +2.2
Georgia Biden +1.6
Indiana Trump +8.8
Iowa Biden +1.5
Kansas Trump +9.4
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.7
Michigan Biden +8.1
Minnesota Biden +8.0
Missouri Trump +6.7
Montana Trump +5.6
Nevada Biden +6.2
New Hampshire Biden +10.6
North Carolina Biden +2.2
Ohio Trump +2.3
Pennsylvania Biden +5.2
South Carolina Trump +7.8
Texas Trump +1.4
Wisconsin Biden +8.4