It's in the "stars" (predicting by astrology and other means)

[Eric the Green]

I think the DeMark graph hits the mark. I think the recovery and stock boom is already stalling, and I think it has reached a high and won't go much higher. Next year could see declines, probably in the Fall.

I think Uranus entering Taurus is an indicator. Things slow down under Taurus, especially during a sign change. Then also we are in the last years of the Establishment cycle, the next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction being due in Dec.2020. Those kinds of indicators are what I look at. Saturn will be in Capricorn soon, which is usually not so hot for the economy.

I'm not sure what technical indicator charts would be.

But economic cycles are pretty regular, usually about 10 years. So we're due for a recession, but it is unlikely to be severe. People who want to stick it out for the long term might be wise to keep their stocks until the next boom, which I think will materialize gradually after 2021.

[Eric the Green]

See my video predicting which candidates can win the presidential election of 2020. You might be surprised!

[gabrielle]

Uranus moves back into Aries again today, just in time for the US mid-terms. 

[gabrielle]

Okay, so there was no blue wave.  But the Dems have taken back the House, and a number of things happened last night to give progressives some hope, all the same.

Question for Eric the Green:  What are Beto O'Rourke's astrological chops according to your system?  He is being touted as a "rising superstar" in the Democratic party, in spite of having lost to Cruz.  If that's the case, there could be some hope for my generation having prominent figures on the political scene besides a few creeps and jerks (Greitens, Cruz, Ryan etc).  He was born Sept 26, 1972 in El Paso TX (time unknown).

Beto O'Rourke 'as hopeful as I've ever been' despite narrow loss to Ted Cruz

Quote:O’Rourke began his David versus Goliath mission to topple Cruz less than two years ago with a staff of just two – both old friends from El Paso – travelling in a rented sedan. He started from scratch in a state with next to no Democratic party infrastructure, criss-crossing the state to stump in all of its 254 counties – no small task in Texas, which is bigger than France.

Wherever he went, he planted seeds of a new Democratic infrastructure – something that has been sorely lacking in Texas since the 1990s. They began recruiting volunteers, often young and inexperienced but energetic and eager, who grew into an army by election day, numbering 25,000.

O’Rourke’s team created 727 “pop-up” offices, converting volunteers’ homes into hubs of activity. By the end they had knocked on almost 2m doors.

The Democratic candidate went to extreme lengths to mobilise every potential vote. When the Guardian reported on an Hispanic young man in Gonzalez that had never voted and had no intention of starting now, he dispatched his field officer from 70 miles away to register the individual and encourage him to cast his ballot.

Financially, he also tore up the traditional rulebook. He refused from the beginning to accept money from big donors or political action committees, preferring instead to rely on the beneficence of his passionate supporters.

The gamble worked – O’Rourke smashed previous US Senate fundraising records, hugely outgunning Cruz by drawing in about $70m from more than 1m small online donations to his opponent’s $30m.

In the end, the vastly superior ground game that the Republican party has built up over many years was simply too much for one individual politician to overcome.

But the narrow result still represents a stark improvement for the Democrats in Texas, a state that turned majority minority in 2004 and with its rapidly growing population holds enormous weight in US electoral politics. 

[Eric the Green]

I already posted my video about most of the 2020 potential candidates, right above your video post. No, as much as I admire and root for Beto, his chart does not measure up on my system. The system would have to be way off, and Beto a major anomaly, if he were ever to be elected president. It's surprising, I know, but he's close to the bottom of the list among Democrats. Only Kamala Harris scores lower among those currently on the radar. I hate to even say how many negative points Beto has on my system.

But Beto did great work opening up Texas to more Democratic voters, and helping to flip two federal house seats by comfortable margins. According to the Texas Tribune:

Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas House, moving the lopsided 95-55 split to 83-67. State Rep. Matt Rinaldi, R-Irving, an important member of the Texas House Freedom Caucus, lost his re-election bid to Democrat Julie Johnson as a group of Dallas-area Democrats bested their GOP opponents. Moderates Tony Dale and Paul Workman were unseated as well. Those changes shift calculations for House lawmakers who will elect a new speaker in January. Democrats had been hoping that pickups in the midterm elections would boost their bargaining power — and they seem to have gotten their wish.

In the Texas Senate, incumbents Don Huffines and Konni Burton were unseated by Democratic challengers. But the GOP still holds 19 seats in the upper chamber — enough to bring legislation to the floor without any support from Democrats, and more than enough to pass it.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/07/...n-results/


Texas still has a long way to go. I guess if Missouri (and I think Ohio) can pass a law to not allow its politicians to choose their voters rather than the other way around, maybe Texas can do that too. I'm just not sure how, though. Texas Republicans like Cruz are fanatical and ruthless.

And Beto's poor score only applies to a presidential run; candidates for other offices are not greatly affected by my system's scoring. Our governor Jerry Brown does well in California, but he failed three times as a presidential candidate, as indicated by his poor 5-10 score. So there's no reason Beto can't come back and run again for statewide office and win, and become a major national figure. But if he runs for president of the USA, he will lose unless he's a huge anomaly.

[Eric the Green]

I have been predicting a recession would start in late Oct-Nov.2018. The stock market began going down in late Oct. And now there's a virtual crash.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dow...7e907af14e

"Ahead of a looming government shutdown, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst week since the 2008 global financial crisis as stocks continued to plummet on Friday.

The Dow ― which indicates the value of Apple, Microsoft and more than two dozen other companies ― dropped 6.8 percent by week’s end, marking the index’s biggest percentage drop since the height of the financial crash in October 2008.

The Dow wasn’t the only index that took a hit this week as President Donald Trump squabbled with Congress over securing funding for his long-promised border wall. The S&P 500 dropped 7 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 8.3.

Those major indexes are now 16 to 26 percent below the peaks they reached over the summer and fall. It’s unlikely they will be able to make significant gains in the final days of December, as trading typically slows during the winter holidays.

Aside from the border wall debate triggering shutdown fears, other ongoing factors affecting the market include “tighter U.S. monetary policy, flagging global growth and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations,” MarketWatch reported.

Financial experts warn that the U.S. could be heading toward another recession, CNBC reported Friday, as it saw following the 2008 crash."

Can I predict 'em, or what?

[Ragnarök_62]

(12-21-2018, 08:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I have been predicting a recession would start in late Oct-Nov.2018. The stock market began going down in late Oct. And now there's a virtual crash.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dow...7e907af14e

"Ahead of a looming government shutdown, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst week since the 2008 global financial crisis as stocks continued to plummet on Friday.

The Dow ― which indicates the value of Apple, Microsoft and more than two dozen other companies ― dropped 6.8 percent by week’s end, marking the index’s biggest percentage drop since the height of the financial crash in October 2008.

The Dow wasn’t the only index that took a hit this week as President Donald Trump squabbled with Congress over securing funding for his long-promised border wall. The S&P 500 dropped 7 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 8.3.

Those major indexes are now 16 to 26 percent below the peaks they reached over the summer and fall. It’s unlikely they will be able to make significant gains in the final days of December, as trading typically slows during the winter holidays.

Aside from the border wall debate triggering shutdown fears, other ongoing factors affecting the market include “tighter U.S. monetary policy, flagging global growth and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations,” MarketWatch reported.

Financial experts warn that the U.S. could be heading toward another recession, CNBC reported Friday, as it saw following the 2008 crash."

Can I predict 'em, or what?

Dunno man.   I sold  a bunch of stocks about 3 months ago because stock prices are too damn high. I also sold another batch about a year ago.   It's better to sell before something breaks than after man.  There's no magic.  If mundane things like PE ratios and debt to equity are off, then a bust is gonna happen sooner or later. Sanity will return when there's a half price off sale.

Stocks are going down because there's too much debt and stocks are priced too high as per fundamentals.  The stuff above is fluff, IMHO.

[Hintergrund]

And meanwhile the stock market has recovered pretty well. Find some better explanation.

[Galen]

(02-06-2019, 11:50 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: And meanwhile the stock market has recovered pretty well. Find some better explanation.

Maybe that have but it seems to me that this is a bear market rally.  There are plenty of signs that the economy is in recession or about to be in recession.  Truck orders falling off is a big clue that something isn't quite right.  I will leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the others.

[David Horn]

(02-07-2019, 05:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 11:50 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: And meanwhile the stock market has recovered pretty well. Find some better explanation.

Maybe that have but it seems to me that this is a bear market rally.  There are plenty of signs that the economy is in recession or about to be in recession.  Truck orders falling off is a big clue that something isn't quite right.  I will leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the others.

We rarely agree on anything, but this time, I think you're right.  The economy has been doing a happy dance for quite a while, all logic to the contrary.

[Eric the Green]

The economy seems about to have some kind of recession developing or maybe just some mixed signals. But the real question is where will the likely war start in December 2020. I studied this question again today, and the most likely scenarios as indicated by astrological cartography indicate what we would expect now anyway. The Middle East will explode again. The area around Raqqa should be especially dangerous, as the Kurds/Syrian Democratic Forces, Assad regime, The Islamic State, and Turkey all want to get involved with each other.

If Trump is defeated, he will be a lame duck president at this time. Whatever he is, I expect him to stay out of the war. But another scenario has been opened up by his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Iran could resume it's nuclear program, prompting bombing by Israel, with US help behind the scenes. And of course, Iraq is likely to be involved in whatever is going on too.

I have been looking at this period as the start of a war for decades now. This time is rapidly approaching now. I had expected Russia or Central Asia to be centrally involved, but this looks less likely according to this new review, but more Russian aggression is still possible. They are certainly likely to be involved in whatever happens in the Raqqa region. Will a new president take more responsibility to preserve Kurdish freedom from these other tyrannical forces, or will the Kurds have to suffer until 2025, when a new president gets the USA involved in this region again? Perhaps because of mischief committed against the USA because it had been abandoned by the USA after 2020?

There is some indication of Japan getting aggressive for some reason in this period, but China and the Vietnam/Indochina areas seem fairly peaceful. They may need to make economic moves or ask nations for humanitarian help due to climate or refugee challenges. Trouble in Panama seems possible.

Another wrinkle is that some kind of early version of this war could start as early as early 2020. I may need to study this more.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-12-2019, 01:19 AM)taramarie Wrote:

(02-12-2019, 01:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The economy seems about to have some kind of recession developing or maybe just some mixed signals. But the real question is where will the likely war start in December 2020. I studied this question again today, and the most likely scenarios as indicated by astrological cartography indicate what we would expect now anyway. The Middle East will explode again. The area around Raqqa should be especially dangerous, as the Kurds/Syrian Democratic Forces, Assad regime, The Islamic State, and Turkey all want to get involved with each other.

If Trump is defeated, he will be a lame duck president at this time. Whatever he is, I expect him to stay out of the war. But another scenario has been opened up by his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Iran could resume it's nuclear program, prompting bombing by Israel, with US help behind the scenes. And of course, Iraq is likely to be involved in whatever is going on too.

I have been looking at this period as the start of a war for decades now. This time is rapidly approaching now. I had expected Russia or Central Asia to be centrally involved, but this looks less likely according to this new review, but more Russian aggression is still possible. They are certainly likely to be involved in whatever happens in the Raqqa region. Will a new president take more responsibility to preserve Kurdish freedom from these other tyrannical forces, or will the Kurds have to suffer until 2025, when a new president gets the USA involved in this region again? Perhaps because of mischief committed against the USA because it had been abandoned by the USA after 2020?

There is some indication of Japan getting aggressive for some reason in this period, but China and the Vietnam/Indochina areas seem fairly peaceful. They may need to make economic moves or ask nations for humanitarian help due to climate or refugee challenges. Trouble in Panama seems possible.

Yes, Tammarie, this is so true.  Popcorn for all of us who don't care.   Syria.  The US Neocons are so stupid.  Turkey will never, never allow Kurds to join up with PKK. All of the little wars since Korea and non won at all.  So now in Venezuela and soon the empire shall fall.  




So that's all watch the show,
and the failures one by one grow
so grab your popcorn and watch
as the Neocons go from botch to botch.
In cynicism I wallow,
I grab more popcorn and swallow
Let's see another fail
Let's here the Neocons rail
The US is after all just there for the oil
'cause human rights and the rulles based order are just a foil.

[pbrower2a]

(02-07-2019, 05:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 11:50 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: And meanwhile the stock market has recovered pretty well. Find some better explanation.

Maybe that have but it seems to me that this is a bear market rally.  There are plenty of signs that the economy is in recession or about to be in recession.  Truck orders falling off is a big clue that something isn't quite right.  I will leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the others.

Average weekly hours (manufacturing)

Average weekly jobless claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials

Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index)

[b]Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods[/b]

Building permits


[b]Stock prices of 500 common stocks[/b]

[b][b]Money Supply (M2)[/b][/b]

[b][b]Interest rate spread[/b][/b]

[b][b]Index of consumer expectations[/b][/b]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_i...Indicators

[TnT]

I'm going to make a really radical prediction ...

The economy and the stock market go up and down in cycles ...

[Eric the Green]

The anti-neocons such as our friend Ragnarock like to invent wars that don't exist in order to oppose them. Just as there is no war against Assad by the USA in Syria, there is no war by the USA against Venezuela. Nor will there be.

Seth Curry doesn't really sit on the sidelines and eat popcorn. He's out there playing, and helps with charity and social movements too.

[pbrower2a]

(02-12-2019, 04:26 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 05:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 11:50 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: And meanwhile the stock market has recovered pretty well. Find some better explanation.

Maybe that have but it seems to me that this is a bear market rally.  There are plenty of signs that the economy is in recession or about to be in recession.  Truck orders falling off is a big clue that something isn't quite right.  I will leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the others.

Average weekly hours (manufacturing)

Average weekly jobless claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials

Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index)

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods

Building permits for residential properties


Stock prices of 500 common stocks]

Money Supply (M2)

Interest rate spread

Index of consumer expectations


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_i...Indicators

Basically, as the economy strengthen, employers tend to lengthen hours for existing workers because such is easier to undo than to hire new workers. New workers require training that makes them more costly to employ at first. But there are limits, and workplace efficiency drops off rapidly after ten hours a day. During World War II, the British ramped up hours of toil in industrial plants -- but found that at a certain point they had to cut back hours so that workers would be more efficient in the hours that they worked. That was not charity; there were just too many industrial accidents, and productivity by tired people was falling off. At a certain point, employers seek new workers for industrial jobs.

On the other side, hours get reduced as industrial demand weakens. It is easier to cut back on hours than to lay people off -- especially if people laid off might find work elsewhere and no longer be available. New hires and mass firings come later in a boom or a recession.

Old claims for unemployment insurance change nothing as an indicator. New claims suggest that people are losing jobs. Fewer new claims indicates that people are not losing jobs. Termination of unemployment may indicate that people completely drop out of the paid labor force or join the precarious informal sector.

Manufacturers' purchases for raw materials or sub-assemblies for consumer products indicate reflect what those manufacturers expect to do in the next few months. Thus if an automotive manufacturer is buying up lots of glass or leather, such can only suggest taht the manufacturer expects to build more automobiles. But should the vendor requests go down, such suggests a lower level of manufacturing.

Related to such is the relative difficulty of getting raw materials and components.  Suppliers may have surpluses in slack times, and in slack times one can buy such things and get them rapidly. In boom times, such things may not be so readily available. Do people want them -- or do they not?

Purchases of new capital goods typically imply re-tooling for new lines or expansion of productive facilities. This may also reflect that equipment has been damaged in calamities. Capital expenditures are huge (and this applies to people buying transportation equipment such as eighteen-wheelers, obviously huge capital costs to truckers or trucking businesses) and are not made for trivial reasons. Capital expenditures are among the most cyclical of purchases.

Building permits for residential property? New construction of any kind suggests a huge increase in hiring as construction workers go from being unemployed or underemployed to fully employed. Construction labor can really cut into unemployment. On the other hand, as construction activity diminishes, construction workers lose jobs and their participation in the economy falls. This is the classic example of a leading indicator.

Prices of the top 500 stocks? This is highly visible, and even proles pay attention to the Dow Jones. High prices create a wealth effect in expectations of people who do not even own stocks. Note also that high stock prices might reflect low interest rates. When Obama was President, owning stock shares made more sense than savings for many people. Why get 0% interest on a savings account when you can own a stock that pays dividends? On the other side, falling stock prices suggest the inverse of a wealth effect -- and low stock prices may reflect high interest rates.

Governments set the money supply to justify their economic objectives, whether by fostering investment or 'cooling' an over-heated economy. Interest rates get to feel the effect.

The spread between short and long interest rates suggests whether people might want to invest. Borrowing short for long-term investment is risky, but any opportunity suggests risk. If people think that they can get away with the risk they might take the chance. But borrowing short when long-term lending is less expensive is something that one does only in desperation.

Finally -- consumers generally make rational choices on big-ticket purchases from cars to appliances to furniture -- and of course housing. If they think things shaky they might make things do or do without while waiting for better times. Consumers have typically been largely blue-collar workers, whether construction laborers or industrial toilers. They can tell when fewer and less-expensive things are going in and out the loading dock. They are the first to know when production lines slow. Construction workers know when their role in building things comes to an end.

End of lesson.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-18-2019, 12:51 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The anti-neocons such as our friend Ragnarock like to invent wars that don't exist in order to oppose them. Just as there is no war against Assad by the USA in Syria, there is no war by the USA against Venezuela. Nor will there be.

Seth Curry doesn't really sit on the sidelines and eat popcorn. He's out there playing, and helps with charity and social movements too.

Do you think US troops in Syria are just smoking ganja or something.  Perhaps widening your news sources help.


https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-...d=46020582

And some come home in body bags as well.  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-1...oops-syria

So the Neocons have even more blood on their hands.

https://news.antiwar.com/2017/10/31/us-g...-in-syria/

So of course the US is doing a war in Syria, silly.

Venezuela:


http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/wor...rence.html

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/...zuela.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-...listc_pos4

Well, here, it's not a war ... yet.  I do see that any cooked up war by the Neocons has a good chance of crashing and buring and then splatting a whole chicken farm of eggs in their face.  And guess what Eric? If that happens, Rags will gloat and take supreme pleasure in schadenfreude in yet another big fat fail.  I truly despise Neocons and I wish I may, I wish I wish I might watch the whole thing go pear shaped on them.     Dunno how many fails it will take for them to become discredited but that's what I want.



Uh, who is Seth Curry?  Never heard of him.

[Eric the Green]

(02-18-2019, 08:50 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(02-18-2019, 12:51 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The anti-neocons such as our friend Ragnarock like to invent wars that don't exist in order to oppose them. Just as there is no war against Assad by the USA in Syria, there is no war by the USA against Venezuela. Nor will there be.

Seth Curry doesn't really sit on the sidelines and eat popcorn. He's out there playing, and helps with charity and social movements too.

Do you think US troops in Syria are just smoking ganja or something.  Perhaps widening your news sources help.

You never get it on this, do you? There is no USA war against Assad in Syria. Period, end of story, and already explained ad infinitum.

Quote:Venezuela:

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/wor...rence.html

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/...zuela.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-...listc_pos4

Well, here, it's not a war ... yet.  I do see that any cooked up war by the Neocons has a good chance of crashing and burning and then splatting a whole chicken farm of eggs in their face.  And guess what Eric? If that happens, Rags will gloat and take supreme pleasure in schadenfreude in yet another big fat fail.  I truly despise Neocons and I wish I may, I wish I wish I might watch the whole thing go pear shaped on them.     Dunno how many fails it will take for them to become discredited but that's what I want.

I don't like neo-cons either, but I know that you despise them partly because you are a nationalist isolationist, and I am not that. For me, it's a question of balance and responsibility, with the balance leaning toward non-intervention.

Quote:Uh, who is Seth Curry?  Never heard of him.

The man in the picture above your comments. He's a star on the Golden State Warriors basketball team, voted MVP twice. I see you have inserted Putin below him.

[Marypoza]

(11-08-2018, 02:28 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I already posted my video about most of the 2020 potential candidates, right above your video post. No, as much as I admire and root for Beto, his chart does not measure up on my system. The system would have to be way off, and Beto a major anomaly, if he were ever to be elected president. It's surprising, I know, but he's close to the bottom of the list among Democrats. Only Kamala Harris scores lower among those currently on the radar. I hate to even say how many negative points Beto has on my system.[\quote]

  
-- 4 real? Bcuz she appears 2 be the DNCs Annointed One 4 next yr

[David Horn]

(02-20-2019, 11:31 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(11-08-2018, 02:28 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I already posted my video about most of the 2020 potential candidates, right above your video post. No, as much as I admire and root for Beto, his chart does not measure up on my system. The system would have to be way off, and Beto a major anomaly, if he were ever to be elected president. It's surprising, I know, but he's close to the bottom of the list among Democrats. Only Kamala Harris scores lower among those currently on the radar. I hate to even say how many negative points Beto has on my system.[\quote]

  
-- 4 real? Bcuz she appears 2 be the DNCs Annointed One 4 next yr

She's high in the pack for sure, but this will be the Dems version of the Sweet 16 outing the GOPpers had last time.  How that plays is hard to predict this early in the process.