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Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability
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AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

AP is really cautious.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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KEY POINTS

  • Vegas oddsmakers, shrugging off the House Democrats’ midterm election triumph, favor President Trump to win a second term in 2020. So do Wall Street insiders.
  • It’s easy to understand why they would consider 2018 a temporary setback. Republican routs in 1994 and 2010 didn’t keep Bill Clinton and Barack Obama from getting subsequently winning reelection.
  • But a closer look at those lopsided midterms suggests a different conclusion. For three overlapping reasons, 2018 sent a stronger-than-usual signal about the upcoming White House contest.

Vegas oddsmakers, shrugging off the House Democrats’ midterm election triumph, favor President Trump to win a second term in 2020. So do Wall Street insiders.

It’s easy to understand why they would consider 2018 a temporary setback. Republican routs in 1994 and 2010 didn’t keep Bill Clinton and Barack Obama from getting subsequently winning reelection.

But a closer look at those lopsided midterms suggests a different conclusion. For three overlapping reasons, 2018 sent a stronger-than-usual signal about the upcoming White House contest.

Looking forward, not back

In 1994, House Republicans amassed much of their 54-seat gain on conservative ground. It deepened a political realignment that had already occurred at the presidential level, most dramatically among white Southerners.

The 2010 elections reflected a similar dynamic, wiping out conservative remnants within the Democratic caucus. The 63-seat House Republican gain included 51 rural districts that Democrats had snatched amid the Wall Street crisis and unpopular Iraq War in 2008.

That made both midterms trailing presidential indicators. Last November looks different.

In 2016, Trump edged Hillary Clinton among suburban voters, just as Mitt Romney had edged Obama four years earlier. Republicans approached 2018 confident that favorable district boundaries and strong economic conditions would safeguard their majority.

Instead, Democrats smashed through those barriers for a 40-seat gain propelled by suburban voters, especially women. Overcoming traditional weakness in midterm turnout by their disproportionately young, non-white coalition, they captured 21 seats Trump won in 2016.

“A big achievement – they managed to overcome their structural disadvantages,” observes congressional elections scholar Gary Jacobson of the University of California-San Diego. “The same factors that inspired that turnout apply now.”

Trump’s consistent unpopularity
Jacobson was alluding to Trump’s polarizing presence, which has repelled young, female, non-white and college-educated voters. His inability to inspire higher support distinguishes him from modern predecessors.

Both Clinton and Obama began their presidencies with Gallup job approval well above 50%. They dipped below that level before their first midterms, but moved above 50% again approaching their reelections.

Public regard for Trump has not been nearly so fluid. He remains the only president in the polling era never to reach 50% approval.

“The inelasticity of people’s views on Trump is important,” notes Ruy Teixeira of the Century Foundation.

Approaching last year’s midterms, Trump languished underwater by a double-digit margin: 40% approve, 54% disapprove. His Gallup standing today: 39% approve, 57% disapprove.

A slowing economy

In 1992, Clinton rode economic discontent to the White House. The 1980s Reagan boom had given way to recession under President George H.W. Bush.

Unfortunately for congressional Democrats, it remained unclear by fall 1994 how much things were improving. Fortunately for Clinton, the takeoff toward the late-1990s boom was clearer two years later.

Obama took office during the Wall Street crisis and Great Recession. By Nov. 2010, unemployment still hovered near its 10% peak.

That fueled the signature Republican attack line: “Where are the jobs?” But by fall 2012, unemployment had fallen below 8% and the economy resumed steady growth.

Trump faces a different economic trajectory. In 2018, stimulus from higher spending and lower taxes fueled strong 2.9% growth, though even that wasn’t enough to forestall GOP defeat.

Now, the stimulus has all but run out while Trump’s trade war disrupts business supply chains and shrouds new investment in uncertainty. Even if the president backs off, independent economist Mark Zandi expects 2020 growth to slow to 1.6%.

If he doesn’t, Zandi sees growth slowing to 0.9% with a recession beginning in mid-2020. The last president to suffer an election-year recession was Jimmy Carter, who lost badly.

At least part of that equation is within Trump’s control. GOP strategists consider continued growth vital for his chances.

“Can Trump regain the narrative about the economy?” asks David Winston, a pollster for congressional Republicans. “That’s the way he could win.”

As 2016 proved, Trump could win with well under 50% of the vote. Since many voters Trump has turned off live in states whose electoral votes won’t be in doubt, analyst David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says he could garner a second term while losing the popular vote by even more in 2020.

One massive unknown is the identity of the Democratic nominee with whom Trump can draw a contrast. Wasserman still considers the incumbent an even-money bet to win.

Wasserman’s boss does not, reflecting divisions on the question inside and outside the political parties.

“President Trump is facing a very, very difficult reelection challenge,” says Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report. “If this thing is a referendum on Donald Trump, he’s going to lose.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/these-ar...n-bid.html
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (D), Sep. 7-11, 800 RV including 775 LV

RV:

Biden 50
Trump 41
Amash 4

Warren 48
Trump 41
Amash 5

Sanders 48
Trump 43
Amash 4

The only difference with LV is that Sanders gets 47 instead of 48.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index....rdseen#new

...relating a possible libertarian challenge to big-government right-winger Donald Trump.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that health care is a key issue for the majority
(69%) of voters in 2020 battleground states (AZ, FL, PA, MI, WI & TX) and that President
Trump’s health care record is a major liability for him with voters, including independents
and even Republicans.

● President Trump’s lawsuit, which began in a Texas court, to strike down the
Affordable Care Act is unpopular with battleground voters, including Texans, by a
21-point margin. The majority of voters (55%) oppose the lawsuit’s goal of striking
down the Affordable Care Act, while only 34% think it should be struck down.

● By a 19-point margin, voters think that President Trump and the Department of
Justice should drop their support for the lawsuit (54-35). This includes a majority
of independents (52%), and even 30% of Republicans.

Beyond the implications of the Texas lawsuit for President Trump, battleground voters are
overwhelmingly opposed to other elements of his agenda as well:

● An overwhelming majority (84%) support ending the ban on Medicare negotiating
with drug companies to get lower prices for prescription drugs, which Republicans
in the Senate Finance Committee recently voted against. This is an issue voters
agree on across party lines, with 82% of Republicans, 86% of independents, and
85% of Democrats in support of ending the ban.

● A large majority of battleground voters (70%) also oppose a proposal from the
Trump administration which allows health insurance companies to sell junk health
insurance plans that don’t cover prescription drug costs or protect people with pre-
existing conditions. A majority of Republicans (58%), independents (62%), and
Democrats (86%) oppose this proposal.

● Protecting Medicare is important to voters, with a majority (57%) saying that they
would not consider voting for a candidate for President who proposed a new budget
including $845-billion in cuts to Medicare, including majorities of Democrats
(67%), independents (52%) and a plurality of Republicans (49%). Only 20% say
they would consider voting for such a candidate.

● A clear majority of voters (68%) say that twenty million people completely losing
their health insurance coverage as a result of the ACA being struck down is a major
concern, including a majority of independents (65%) and a plurality of Republicans
(48%).

The bottom line: President Trump’s actions on health care are extremely unpopular with
voters in key November 2020 battleground states, including independents and
Republicans. Indeed, if framed around the issue of health care, voters say they would even
vote for Attila the Hun over President Trump (45-41), if Attila the Hun would maintain
and improve the health care law including protections for people with pre-existing
conditions.

PPP surveyed 733 battleground state voters in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Texas from September 4-5, 2019. The margin of error is +/- 3.6%. The
survey was conducted by telephone on behalf of Protect Our Care.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-conten...0-Memo.pdf

Trump approval in these states: 46% approve, 52% disapprove.

vote for Trump: 46%
vote against 51%

If it is fairly even across these states, then Trump loses them all. If Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin overwhelmingly reject Trump and the rest don't, then Donald Trump is doomed to defeat for those states alone.

Note that Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio are not mentioned in this poll.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply


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