Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

(07-23-2018, 10:13 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I wonder if the states in green in your first map will continue to vote by race. The last 3 elections especially people have been voting in those states by identity politics, and they are dominated by southern whites. If some of them begin to see the folly of voting by race instead of economic interest, then they may swing back Democratic. It's a faint hope, perhaps.

West Virginia has one of the smallest proportions of black people in America. It seceded from Virginia because the Mountain folk had no desire to die to protect the institution of slavery entrenched in eastern Virginia but not in 'western' Virginia. Kentucky has a smaller-than-average percentage of black people. West Virginia went Republican as the once-powerful United Mine Workers union declined as mine seams were worked out -- and Democrats were caught with under-investing in roads, schools, and public health. The other states (Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee) have larger-than-average black populations. That group of states is not a monolith.

The "Mountain South", which used to vote strongly Democratic because Republicans had nothing to offer, went Republican as Republicans  played up religious identity. Note that West Virginia and southern Missouri (except for the extreme Southeastern part of Missouri that is more like Mississippi than like any other part of Missouri) are very similar. Missouri was slower to drift R than the other states in green on the top map because it has big chunks of Greater St.  Louis and Greater Kansas City, but those parts of the state, as non-growth areas, are becoming less relevant to statewide politics in Missouri. Contrast Georgia, which has the fast-growing Atlanta metro area -- and whose partisan map could easily come to resemble that of Illinois, which is highly R except for the Greater Chicago area. But Greater Chicago is where the people are, and it is firmly D. 

The states in green on the top map have problems -- big ones -- poverty and really bad habits (smoking, obesity, and drugs -- and low levels of educational attainment). As I see it. Texas is closer to going Democratic at the statewide level and switching several House seats from R to D than are any of the states in green on the top map. If one ignores Missouri as a bellwether state until 2008. I see all of the states of the arc from Louisiana to West Virginia less likely to vote for a Democrat for President than Texas.

So what about Texas? It has a large Mexican-American population, and a fast-growing Mexican-American electorate. There has never been the enmity toward Mexican-Americans as there has been for blacks at any time in American history. Mexican-Americans do not have the same contempt for education that white fundamentalists have. Positive attitudes toward formal education now favor Democrats about as much as they did Republicans in the 1950s. (Just take a look at my overlay of the Eisenhower and Obama elections). Texas used to be below average in education and public health, but it is below average in smoking and obesity (two things at which one wants to be low), much in contrast to states to the east of Texas. Texas actually attracts transplants from relatively liberal Northern and Western states.

I can imagine every state in green going for Trump in his re-election bid -- but Texas going for the Democrat.  It may be ironic, but states that have gone for the Democrat twice (both times for Bill Clinton) beginning in 1992 may be less likely to go Democratic than those that have gone Democratic once (Arizona, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina... and even Indiana!) or Texas.

[Eric the Green]

I think that's all correct. But I wonder if Tennessee is going to elect its former Democratic governor to the Senate (and he's leading in the polls), then who knows, it might be possible for some people in the states in green to recognize that voting Republican is adding to their problems, as you pointed out. But in West Virginia the identity issues and guns and coal are still big factors keeping them tied to their political misjudgment and therefore to their problems.

[pbrower2a]

Polling of a significant part of the electorate: people who hold both Parties in contempt:

So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are over-performing among voters who hold negative views of both parties (representing 13 percent of the sample). Here’s the past and current congressional preference among these voters:

- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ poll (through June): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
- 2018 NBC/WSJ poll from July: 55 percent DEM, 25 percent GOP (D+30)

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

 Democratic candidates are increasingly seen as being out of the mainstream

Those numbers above are good news for Democrats in the NBC/WSJ poll. Here’s some bad news, however: Democratic candidates for Congress are increasingly seen as out of the mainstream — a change from 2012 and 2016.

According to our poll, 33 percent of voters view Democratic congressional candidates as in the mainstream, versus 56 percent who say they are out of step. That’s essentially the same score that GOP congressional candidates get — 33 percent mainstream, 57 percent out of step.

But the 33 percent viewing Democratic candidates in the mainstream is a drop of 15 points from 2016 and 12 points from 2012 (while the GOP numbers have been pretty flat).

Read down to see the relevant material.

Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018. I will also be posting this in "the 2018 Election".

[Eric the Green]

New polling suggests that as Donald Trump solidifies the GOP base, he and the Republican party are also repelling independent voters. In a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump's approval rating among Republican voters is at an all-time high for the poll—88 percent. But while 29 percent of all voters say they "strongly approve" of his performance, another 44 percent of all voters "strongly disapprove" of his performance.

That disparity is expressing itself in his drop in approvals among independent voters, writes NBC News.

The bad news for the president is that his standing — plus the GOP’s — is now worse with independents than it was a month ago. Just 36 percent of independents approve of Trump’s job (down 7 points from June). What’s more, independents prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by more than 20 points, 48 percent to 26 percent. In June, the Dem lead among indies was just 7 points, 39 percent to 32 percent. (emphasis added)

That 22-point gap among independents who favor Democrats over Republicans in the generic ballot also seems to track with the 30-point gap between the number of independents who "strongly disapprove" of Trump versus those who "strongly approve" of him (with 46 percent strongly disapproving and just 16 percent strongly approving).

Chart showing a 30-point gap between independents who "strongly" disapprove of Trump vs. those who "strongly" approve of him (46-16 percent).



The bottom-line takeaway appears to be: the more Trump appeals to Republicans while ignoring the rest of the country, the more independents are turning against him. That ripple effect is also spilling over onto Republican lawmakers, positioning this fall’s elections as a clear referendum on Trump's performance more than any other single factor.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll: approval numbers of the President (they are execrable and highly detailed, as if anyone should expect otherwise). The prognosis is catastrophic failure for this Presidency.

American voters believe 51 - 35 percent "that the Russian government has compromising information about President Trump," according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Republicans don't believe 70 - 18 percent there is compromising information, the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which does not believe it, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Two other groups are divided:

• 44 percent of white voters with no college degree believe the Russians have something and 43 percent don't believe it;
  
• 42 percent of white men believe it and 43 percent don't believe it.
  

The U.S. and Russia share the blame for the relationship between the two countries, 54 percent of U.S. voters say, while 38 percent say Russia is to blame and 4 percent say the U.S. is to blame.

The Helsinki summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a failure for the U.S., voters say 52 - 27 percent. The summit was a success for Russia, voters say 73 - 8 percent.

Trump was not acting in the best interest of the U.S., voters say 54 - 41 percent.

"Whether it is with love or not, President Donald Trump's relationship with Russia has delivered a small blow to his already poor standing with the American people," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump's job approval is back below 40 percent again.

"The president gets a split 49 - 47 percent score on the economy, but he receives negative reviews on his handling of a bevy of international problems and especially his relationship with Russia."

President Trump should defend all of America's NATO allies, American voters say 78 - 16 percent.

A total of 68 percent of American voters are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" about President Trump's relationship with Russia, while 32 percent are "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."

President Trump's Approval Rating

American voters give President Trump a negative 38 - 58 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 52 percent rating in a June 20 Quinnipiac University Poll after the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The president's only clear support among listed groups is from Republicans, who approve 82 - 15 percent, and white evangelical Christians, who approve 71 - 26 percent. White voters with no college degree are split 49 - 47 percent and white men are divided as 49 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove.

Voters disapprove 58 - 38 percent of the way Trump is handling foreign policy and say 51 - 35 percent that he has weakened the U.S. position as leader of the free world.

The Russia Investigation

Trump did not collude with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election, American voters say 48 - 39 percent. But voters are divided on whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, as 46 percent say it did and 44 percent say it did not.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into possible collusion, voters say 55 - 31 percent.

This investigation is "legitimate," 54 percent of voters say, while 40 percent say it is a "witch hunt."

A total of 63 percent of voters are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" that the Russian government may try to interfere in the 2018 elections, as 36 percent are "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."

From July 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or http://www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2557

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
                    APPROVE......   DISAPPROVE.....
                    Strngly Smwht   Smwht   Strngly DK/NA

Jul 24, 2018         28      10       7      51       5
Jul 03, 2018         30      10       8      47       5
Jun 20, 2018         32      10       5      47       6
Jun 06, 2018         29      11       8      44       9
Apr 25, 2018         31       8       6      47       8
Apr 10, 2018         30      10      10      42       7
Mar 21, 2018         30       9       7      46       8
Mar 07, 2018         28      10       7      48       7
Feb 21, 2018         26      10       6      52       6
Feb 07, 2018         30      10       8      47       5


Strong disapproval is at 51%

[pbrower2a]

Quote:Marist just tweeted that approval ratings for the President are execrable in Minnesota (which he barely lost), Michigan (which he barely won), and Wisconsin (which he barely won). In each, the President's approval is in the mid-30s.

In case you wonder why I was so slow to put up the polling numbers for these three states, Marist asked a question even more telling than whether people approve or disapprove of the President's performance. The response is even more devastating than my 100-DIS model, which may be a bit conservative in estimating the chance of a Trump loss. Approval of the President is horrid in these three states, but even if the President won the decided on approval vs. disapproval he would lose all three states --   if barely.



These are devastating, suggesting a loss analogous to that of Carter in 1980. Of course, Carter actually won Minnesota in 1980, but then Minnesota was the most Democratic state in the Union as shown in the solitary win by Mondale in 1984. Minnesota has drifted away from being the strongest Democratic state, and I can easily imagine it being slightly more R than the national average in a Democratic blowout.    



As in 2008, 2012, and 2016 these states were very close to each other (differing by a margin of about 2%), and will likely be so again in 2020. I still have but three states for which I have the answer to the question of re-election or bring in someone else... but that is enough to suggest that President Trump will lose to a Democrat who will win at least as decisively as Obama in 2008. Sure, I would love to see this question asked of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Have patience, folks.   




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

Two states that President Trump will absolutely, positively have to win:

GEORGIA

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.


You know the joke about Georgia, don't you? It's that Atlanta is a very sophisticated city surrounded by Georgia. A similar joke can be made of Chicago and Illinois or (almost) Indianapolis and Indiana.

Not my favorite pollster -- but the 2018 midterm election looks like a potential disaster for Republicans.

Republicans might be able to canvass in this state -- just avoid black and Hispanic voters, but at this level I am seeing more support for the African-American female Democrat running for Governor of Georgia than there ever was for some black fellow running from Illinois for President.

  Senators Isakson and Perdue have approvals in nearly the same area as President Trump. Mercifully for Republicans, neither is up for re-election in 2018. In 2020 and 2022 they will be vulnerable.

Democrats have edges in Secretary of State and the general ballot for the House of Representatives.  Greater Atlanta is probably no less D than such places as Cleveland . But it is one giant metro area dominating the politics of a state, something like Phoenix -- if with a different ethnic mix and about seven times as much rain as Phoenix -- which also has trouble with air quality, rain or not. The President's environmental policies can hurt him in Georgia. 46-49? I have seen wilder polling of Georgia, and I have just tossed one such poll on this map. The 100-DIS model says that Georgia is still possible for Donald Trump.,

It is risky to draw conclusions from one pollster to another, let alone try to extrapolate an answer to an unasked question...  but if you compare the Marist polls of Arizona. Florida (neighboring!). and Ohio to the Gravis poll of Georgia, and making an analogue for Georgia one gets

st    app     elect/not reelect
    
AZ   42-48     35-57
FL    42-46    37-54
OH   42-49    34-58

GA   46-49     39-58  (estimate)

Based on what I see of the Marist polls of three states that Trump won by margins of 3.5%, 1.17%, and 8.07% in 2016 -- a state that he won by 4.09%  should be very much in play. I have seen worse polls of Georgia for Donald Trump. Things get really bleak for President Trump should the Democrat win the gubernatorial election , and a Democratic nominee can make campaign appearances with the Governor practically at will as Obama could not.  

No, I am not showing this extrapolation on the map. I do not show any estimates other than 100-DIS. But I can treat Georgia as a pure toss-up at this point. It is worse for Republicans in 2020 than it was for them in 2008 or 2016.



TEXAS

From Quinnipiac:

Quote:President Trump's Approval

Texas voters are divided on President Donald Trump as 46 percent approve of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapprove.

Republicans approve 84 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 52 - 43 percent among independent voters.

Texas' college grads still approve of the President 56-42, which is lower than one used to expect.

Senator Ted Cruz has a positive approval rating barely above 50 (50-42, both approval and favorability), but only a 6-point gap over his challenger Beto O'Rourke (49-43).

Governor Abbott has a large, but shrinking lead over his Democratic challenger.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559

At this point I must consider Texas a toss-up for 2020. Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for Texas as a Republican Presidential nominee since Barry Goldwater.  

Texas is the difference between a Democrat winning the state as did Barack Obama in 2008 or Bill Clinton in the 1990s -- and an Eisenhower-style win. It has looked like the state containing the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat since about 1992.



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

John Harwood‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood 9h9 hours ago


how narrow is Trump's base? in new Gallup poll, his rating among whites without college degrees is 58% approve, 39% disapprove among all other Americans, it's 29% approve, 66% disapprove

[Classic-Xer]

(08-06-2018, 11:55 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: John Harwood‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood 9h9 hours ago


how narrow is Trump's base? in new Gallup poll, his rating among whites without college degrees is 58% approve, 39% disapprove among all other Americans, it's 29% approve, 66% disapprove

Well, if the 58% is twice as large in size as the 66%, I'd say Trump is in pretty good shape.

[pbrower2a]

(08-10-2018, 10:32 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(08-06-2018, 11:55 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: John Harwood‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood 9h9 hours ago


how narrow is Trump's base? in new Gallup poll, his rating among whites without college degrees is 58% approve, 39% disapprove among all other Americans, it's 29% approve, 66% disapprove

Well, if the 58% is twice as large in size as the 66%, I'd say Trump is in pretty good shape.

You might want to contrast the number of white people of voting age without college degrees to everyone else. That is a shrinking share of the electorate.

Here is a tool for adjusting demographics to fit electoral results to voting patterns among the different groups. If I move the percentage of non-college-educated white people to 66% from what it was in 2012, then Trump picks up Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and he did that.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...-election/

Nate Silver didn't see Donald Trump exciting the white buffoons in America -- people who care little about policy and fall for excitement. Trump was exciting... but the thrill is gone.  He has offended the sensibilities of millions, some of whom voted for him.

Will your meager tax cut make your increased cost of living through tariffs  a triviality? I discussed this with my auto insurance agent. After-market replacement parts used in vehicle repairs will be more expensive. Collisions will be more expensive, so guess what that will do to insurance premiums!

Got comprehensive coverage on your house? The value of the stuff in your house just increased, which is fine if you intend to sell it. If you lose it in a fire or other calamity it will be much more expensive to replace it.

Got electronic gadgets? If one breaks or goes obsolete, then you will replace it. Most of the electronic toys such as stereos. televisions, computers, and cell phones are made overseas. Guess what that will do!

I live in a farming area, and farmers already see some declining prices for the commodities that they sell. Tax cuts are poor compensation for falling income. Farmers, ranchers, and dairymen who rely upon export markets for income usually vote Republican out of concern for taxes, as they those hard-working people are easy marks for taxes. But as in 1930 and 1932 they could make a sharp swing Democratic as falling income hurts them.

But here I give qualitative suggestions on how polling will go, and how Trump will fare in a re-election bid. Polling is quantitative. I can expect economic chaos or stagflation. Look at what that did for Carter in 1976 (probably getting him elected against the incumbent Gerald Ford), but contributing to his landslide loss in 1980.

[pbrower2a]

[quote author=GeorgiaModerate link=topic=297289.msg6353747#msg6353747 date=1534179959]
Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).
[/quote]

Trump is about 6% behind Obama eight years ago. Obama was a good enough politician that even with a constant barrage of cat-calls by the Tea Party critics he was able to transform a 45% approval rating into a 51% share of the binary vote nationwide in 2012. That was enough to win 332 electoral votes, although 29 of those (Florida) were shaky in the last week.

Should Trump do as well in parlaying his approval rating into electoral support (by adding 6% to his approval rating), he ends up with 45% of the popular vote. That will not be enough unless the Democrats rift -- a possibility, but one less likely than the 'conservative' vote rifting. 45% of the vote share is about what Dukakis got in 1988, and decidedly less than Kerry got in 2004, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.

The cat-calls against Donald Trump may be more civilized, but I see them no less effective.

I can't really show you what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like for a Republican. I can show it for Dukakis:



428-111 for the elder Bush.

OK, Trump will win West Virginia, which is about as R now as it was D in 1988. America has been so polarized regionally that Obama would have gotten at most 379 electoral votes had he gotten 55% of the popular vote in 2008. Strange things start to happen as one gets away from a near 50-50 split of the popular vote -- mostly that unlikely states swing wildly in one direction.

The 56% disapproval rating suggests a ceiling of 44% (100-DIS) of the popular vote for President Trump. This is consistent with my polling map.

President Trump is not as astute a campaigner as Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Detail through polling on what underlies the numbers:


August 14, 2018 - U.S. Voters Dislike Trump Almost 2-1, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Media Is Important To Democracy, 65% Of Voters Say

Quote:Only 31 percent of American voters like President Donald Trump as a person, while 59 percent dislike him, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Republicans like Trump 66 - 24 percent, the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which likes him, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds.

By a smaller 54 - 43 percent margin, American voters dislike President Trump's policies.

Voters disapprove 54 - 41 percent of the job Trump is doing as president, including 48 percent who disapprove strongly. Another 30 percent approve strongly.

The Trump Administration is not doing enough to help middle class Americans, voters say 58 - 38 percent. Republicans say 80 - 16 percent that the administration is doing enough, and white men agree 51 - 45 percent. White voters with no college degree are divided as 46 percent say the administration is doing enough and 49 percent say it is not doing enough. Every other listed group says the Trump Administration is not doing enough.

Their personal financial situation has gotten better in the last two years, 36 percent of voters say, as 17 percent say it's worse and 45 percent say their financial situation is the same.

"Not the kind of numbers that gets you a date to the prom - or helps your party as the Midterm Elections approach. Only one in three Americans 'likes' President Donald Trump," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For President Trump, another Groundhog Day. His job approval gets another cool reception in midst of the sweltering summer. What does it mean? Simple: The base is hanging in and the rest aren't buying in."

President Trump does not treat people of color with the same amount of respect he affords white people, American voters say 54 - 39 percent.

American voters say 54 - 37 percent that "President Trump has emboldened people who hold racist beliefs to express those beliefs publicly."

Trump, The Media, Twitter

The news media is an important part of democracy, 65 percent of American voters say, while 26 percent of voters say the media is the enemy of the people. Republicans say 51 - 36 percent that the media is the enemy of the people rather than an important part of democracy, the only listed group to feel that way.

While 44 percent of American voters are concerned that President Trump's criticism of the news media will lead to violence against people who work in media, 52 percent of voters are not concerned. Democrats are concerned about violence 76 - 21 percent. Not concerned are Republicans 80 - 14 percent and independent voters 55 - 41 percent.

American voters say 66 - 26 percent that Trump should stop tweeting from his personal Twitter account. Republicans are divided as 44 percent say tweet and 47 percent say stop.

"The media, so frequently excoriated by the White House, is (sic!) not considered an enemy of the people. Far from it," Malloy said.

Trump and Russia

President Trump is not tough enough on Russia, 55 percent of American voters say, as one percent says he is too tough and 36 percent say his attitude towards Russia is about right.

It is never acceptable for a presidential campaign to obtain information on a political opponent from a hostile foreign power, voters say 79 - 12 percent, including 69 - 19 percent among Republicans.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into possible coordination between the Trump presidential campaign and the Russian government, voters say 51 - 33 percent. The president is guilty of wrongdoing in this matter, 42 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say he is not guilty.

From August 9 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,175 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2561

"Dislike" gives even higher numbers -- significantly higher -- than does "disapprove", "dislike (his) policies", or "embolden... people to express beliefs" (the latter three practically the same).

[pbrower2a]

Here is my prediction map:

First I recognize all states that Donald Trump lost by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost in 1992 or later. Those are the same states. They are in very deep red, and approval ratings for President Trump are consistently awful in every one of them. On the other side I have all the states that Donald Trump won by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost by 5% or less beginning in 2008, but not in any state in which he got less than 47% of the vote in 2016 (Utah -- in green) You will see why I have those conditions.



Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

If you wonder about Utah, a state that President Trump could get less than 47% of the vote and in which he gets low approval is vulnerable to a third-party or independent campaign, if not a likely pickup for any Democrat. Utah Democrats know this, and given the choice between wasting their votes for the Democratic nominee or voting for a third-party nominee they might vote for the conservative alternative to Trump. I'd prefer that my state's electoral votes go to the Libertarian or some vanity candidate than to Trump.      

Now in strong red (60%) I must put New Mexico, which was at twice the usual margin of error, voted for Dubya in 2004; Colorado and Virginia, which seem to have voted about as strongly for Hillary Clinton as for Obama, Trump is doing execrably in all three states in polling. Colorado and Virginia both went for Dubya, but that won't be relevant in 2020. Less-bright red applies to four states that have either never voted for any Republican nominee since 1988 (Minnesota) or have done so only once (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) and have a re-elect/do not re-elect poll indicating that they would go decisively against Trump. States in which Trump    



Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

I'm sure you want to see some not-so-deep blue on the map. The problem is that Trump is underwater in every state on this map still in gray. That includes four states that Republicans have not lost since 2000 but in which Trump is underwater (Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and Texas), Obama actually won Indiana, Nebraska-02, and North Carolina in 2008, so those states can go for the right Democrat or against the wrong Republican.

...Execrable polls for Trump based on re-elect or not to re-elect put Arizona and Ohio in pink. There is no such poll for Pennsylvania or Nevada, but I can't imagine anything else for Pennsylvania or Nevada. Maine at-large is a good analogue to New Hampshire, so I put it in this category. Finally, I can't quite categorize Florida, Iowa, or Maine-02, so they are in white.  



Really-strong Trump 95
Normally R but feebly anti-Trump 68
Usually R but feebly anti-Trump this time 27
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Real swing states barely against Trump 36
Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020  59 (note change)
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

[Eric the Green]

"Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020 46"
57 I think

[pbrower2a]

(08-20-2018, 10:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: "Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020  46"
57 I think

59. Sorry about that.

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I can't believe how quickly the polls are coming in. Maybe some pollsters wanted to calibrate themselves on the weekend before the verdict on Paul Man O' Fraud. This weekend we will see the results of the legal problems of Paul Man O' Fraud and (even worse) Michael Cohen, former personal lawyer to Donald Trump (and he will be a former attorney due to the felony conviction which will disbar him).

[quote author=GeorgiaModerate link=topic=297289.msg6372157#msg6372157 date=1535058425]
Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll
[/quote]


I'd love to see the re-elect/do not re-elect numbers for Pennsylvania as I have for AZ, FL, MI, MN, OH, and WI (NH is a different pollster)... but Marist did not poll that. It would probably be horrid.

[quote author=GeorgiaModerate link=topic=297289.msg6372002#msg6372002 date=1535054434]
Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

[/quote]




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east. I have no split on the districts of Maine.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.

[pbrower2a]

You can draw some strange conclusions from this poll, one that includes questions of whether people believe that the President colluded with Russia and whether they believe that the President authorized illegal payments as hush money to women with whom he had affairs.

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker.  

Among adults:

Approve 44 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)


Some additional questions:

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

... If the President directed someone to make illegal payments, then he committed a crime! Colluding with a foreign power in an election is itself a disloyal deed. To be sure, Putin is nowhere near being as bad as Stalin, but on the whole such Commies as Bierut (Poland) Gottwald (Czechoslovakia), Rakosi (Hungary), Groza (Romania), and Dimitroff  (Bulgaria) are widely recognized as traitors for their collaboration with Stalin in establishing Commie regimes. Trump may not be that bad, but he did misbehave badly.

At least 20% of adults and 22% of registered voters believe that the President ordered his personal attorney to make illegal payments to women whose involvement he wanted to silence... and still approve of the President. ( I cannot subdivide this polling to establish how many people disbelieve that Trump ordered the payments yet still disapprove of the President.

A guilty plea is definitive, and with this goes disbarment.

[pbrower2a]

A pattern may be emerging.  White people with less than a college education are not especially prone to supporting reactionary politics -- if they are not Christian Protestant fundamentalists or evangelicals.

Quote:Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO’s political director, suggests that if we want to have a better understanding of white, non-college educated voters, we need to stop lumping them into one, catch-all category. What really distinguishes a Trump-supporting white voter from one who doesn’t isn’t education or even gender, it's whether or not that voter is evangelical.

Using a data set from Public Religion Research Institute, Podhorzer broke out white voters by gender, education and whether they identified as evangelical. The gap between white voters who approve and disapprove of Trump by gender was 25 points. By education (college versus non-college) it was about the same at 26 percent. But the gap in perceptions of the president between white voters who are evangelical and those who aren’t was a whopping 60 percent!

This evangelical support gap transcends education and gender. For example, among white evangelicals, college-educated men and non-college educated men give Trump equally impressive job approval ratings (78 percent and 80 percent respectively). But, among white men who aren’t evangelical, the education gap is significant. Those without a college degree give Trump a 52 percent job approval rating, while just 40 percent of those with a college degree approve of the job he’s doing.

Meanwhile, among women, if you remove evangelicals, white women with and without a college degree have the same (very low) opinion of the president.

White evangelical women without a college degree give Trump a 68 percent job approval rating, while those with a degree give him a much lower, though still positive 51 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval among white, non-evangelical women without a college degree is 35 percent, just five points higher than the 30 percent approval rating he gets from white, non-evangelical college-educated women.

Podhorzer’s analysis leads to two conclusions. First, stop assuming that all white, non-college voters are core Trump supporters. Trump’s base is evangelical white voters, regardless of education level. Second, white non-evangelical, non-college women are the ultimate swing voters.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...ite-voters

...I am guessing that the distinction in the polls between white voters with college degrees and white voters without college degrees is that Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians are much less likely to attain college degrees. Fundamentalist and evangelical Christianity have strong currents of anti-intellectualism that secularism, mainline Protestantism, and Roman Catholicism do not have. Biblical literalism to the extent of promoting young-earth creationism is strongly anti-intellectual, and anti-intellectualism is not good for surviving four years of college without dropping out.

[pbrower2a]

Quote:Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College, Aug. 20-26, 511 registered voters (change from June)

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Excellent 18 (+1)
Good 20 (+2)
Fair 10 (-3)
Poor 52 (nc)

The excellent + good category is roughly the same as the most recent poll that anyone has taken of Pennsylvania for approval, and "poor" is very close to "strong disapproval". The word "fair" has ambiguity; you might be amazed at a 'fair' performance of a 7-year-old violinist or pianist, but you would be extremely disappointed to pay good money and hear only a 'fair' violinist or pianist. I am not sure that I can quite compare the Presidency to a concert performance, a stage act, or an athletic event.

[Eric the Green]

(08-30-2018, 11:45 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: A pattern may be emerging.  White people with less than a college education are not especially prone to supporting reactionary politics -- if they are not Christian Protestant fundamentalists or evangelicals.

Quote:Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO’s political director, suggests that if we want to have a better understanding of white, non-college educated voters, we need to stop lumping them into one, catch-all category. What really distinguishes a Trump-supporting white voter from one who doesn’t isn’t education or even gender, it's whether or not that voter is evangelical.

Using a data set from Public Religion Research Institute, Podhorzer broke out white voters by gender, education and whether they identified as evangelical. The gap between white voters who approve and disapprove of Trump by gender was 25 points. By education (college versus non-college) it was about the same at 26 percent. But the gap in perceptions of the president between white voters who are evangelical and those who aren’t was a whopping 60 percent!

This evangelical support gap transcends education and gender. For example, among white evangelicals, college-educated men and non-college educated men give Trump equally impressive job approval ratings (78 percent and 80 percent respectively). But, among white men who aren’t evangelical, the education gap is significant. Those without a college degree give Trump a 52 percent job approval rating, while just 40 percent of those with a college degree approve of the job he’s doing.

Meanwhile, among women, if you remove evangelicals, white women with and without a college degree have the same (very low) opinion of the president.

White evangelical women without a college degree give Trump a 68 percent job approval rating, while those with a degree give him a much lower, though still positive 51 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval among white, non-evangelical women without a college degree is 35 percent, just five points higher than the 30 percent approval rating he gets from white, non-evangelical college-educated women.

Podhorzer’s analysis leads to two conclusions. First, stop assuming that all white, non-college voters are core Trump supporters. Trump’s base is evangelical white voters, regardless of education level. Second, white non-evangelical, non-college women are the ultimate swing voters.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...ite-voters

...I am guessing that the distinction in the polls between white voters with college degrees and white voters without college degrees is that Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians are much less likely to attain college degrees. Fundamentalist and evangelical Christianity have strong currents of anti-intellectualism that secularism, mainline Protestantism, and Roman Catholicism do not have. Biblical literalism to the extent of promoting young-earth creationism is strongly anti-intellectual, and anti-intellectualism is not good for surviving four years of college without dropping out.

This data would also seem to support those of us on the new "commandments" thread who say that evangelicals are predominantly narrow-minded, prejudiced and/or stereotypically dogmatic and conservative.

This is still not true for all evangelicals, although it is much more true today than 50 or 100 years ago. You might not have guessed, for example, that ultra-liberal George McGovern, the idol of young hippie anti-war rebels like me in 1972, was evangelical.