Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Mar-17 World View -- As more American troops are deployed to Syria, the endgame is more uncertain

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hundreds of American troops deployed to Syria in support of local forces
  
• As more US troops enter Syria, the endgame becomes fuzzier
  

****
**** Hundreds of American troops deployed to Syria in support of local forces
****


Syrian civilians fleeing Manbij on Wednesday (AFP)

The Pentagon is deploying about 400 Marines and Army Rangers to Syria
to assist in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).

Soldiers from the 75th Army Ranger Regiment are deployed in the city
of Manbij. Manbij is currently under the control of the Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which is an ally of both the
US and Russia, but whom Turkey's government considers to be terrorists
aligned with Turkey's terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Turkey has vowed to attack Manbij and eject the Kurds. So the
American troops are in Manbij to act as a buffer between the Turks and
the Kurds, and to prevent them from fighting each other.

Both Russian and Syrian forces are also being deployed to Manbij.
Although the US and Russia have held talks to coordinate their forces,
it's not know what's in any agreements that were reached, or how the
forces will interact with each other.

Forces from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are being deployed to
the city of Raqqa, which is considered to be the capital city of ISIS.
According to the Pentagon, local forces will do the actual fighting,
while the American troops will provide artillery support:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"A U.S. Marine Corps artillery unit deployed to
> provide the Coalition greater agility to enable and expedite our
> Syrian partnered forces defeat of ISIS in Raqqa. The strategy
> adopted by the Coalition remains the same – we will continue to
> work by, with and through partnered forces to defeat ISIS in Iraq
> and Syria. Our partners in Syria face an entrenched foe and like
> the Iraqis will require additional support to enable them to fight
> and defeat ISIS in Raqqa. The deployment of these additional key
> enabling capabilities allows the coalition to provide flexible
> all-weather fire support to our Syrian partners when they need it
> most."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

These deployments are raising concerns that the US is becoming more
deeply involved in the war in Syria. The Obama administration had a
policy, in both Iraq and Syria, of minimal involvement, while
supporting local forces with airstrikes and artillery. This new
deployment continues that policy, but concerns are growing that the
number of troops deployed will continue to increase.

Robert Ford, the Obama administration's last ambassador to Syria until
2014, says that these deployments are "fraught with risk." According
to Ford, "That’s not a small policy change. It is a huge policy
change. We have never in our Syrian policy ever put U.S. personnel in
between warring Syrian factions or to maintain a local cease-fire."

The number of U.S. troops now authorized to be in Syria is capped at
503, though that amount does not include the 400 Marines and Army
Rangers because they are on a temporary deployment.

Other reports indicate that the U.S. is preparing for a larger
deployment of troops in Syria. Close to 1,000 troops will be sent to
Kuwait in order to be available for quick deployment to Syria if
necessary. Stars and Stripes and US Naval Institute and Washington Post and Press TV (Tehran)

****
**** As more US troops enter Syria, the endgame becomes fuzzier
****

We now have American, Russian, al-Assad regime, Free Syrian Army (FSA)
Sunni insurgent, Turkish, Kurdish YPG, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah
soldiers all fighting in Syria. These forces are all united in their
fight against their common enemy, ISIS, with absolutely no clarity
whatsoever about what will happen if and when ISIS is defeated.

Furthermore, while the al-Assad regime still controls an area in
western Syria along the Mediterranean coast, there are still large
regions controlled by Sunni insurgents. Furthermore, the Kurdish YPG
controls a large strip, almost 100 miles deep, along the entire
northern border with Syria -- except for a small region still
controlled by Turkish forces and FSA insurgents.

Of the above forces, the Turks and the YPG Kurds are bitter enemies.
The al-Assad regime and the FSA Sunni insurgents are bitter enemies.
The Turks and the al-Assad regime are bitter enemies. They're all
getting along now, more or less, because the common enemy is ISIS.

The Kurds would like to control the entire northern border with
Turkey, and form an independent state called Rojava. The Turks are
bitterly opposed to this, and will not give up the small region they
control along the border. Bashar al-Assad will never tolerate even
peaceful opposition from the Sunni insurgents. The Sunni insurgents
will never stop fighting as long as Bashar al-Assad is president.
Iran will not tolerate anyone else as president. Russia couldn't care
less who's president, as long as they're controlling Syria. Iran will
not tolerate Russia controlling Syria.

Those are all "big picture" issues. Even the current "small picture"
issues are unresolved. There are Kurdish, Russian, American and
Turkish in or around Manbij, all with different agendas. Who will end
up controlling the city?

And who's going to be fighting ISIS in Raqqa? The US considers the
YPG Kurds to be the best and most reliable force fighting ISIS, but
Kurdish control of Raqqa will be intolerable to both Turkey and the
al-Assad regime.

There actually is a kind of precedent in the fight to recapture Mosul
Iraq from ISIS. The Iraqi army is entering the city from the east and
doing the fighting. The Kurds are blocking ISIS from fleeing to the
north. The Iran-backed Shia militias are blocking ISIS from fleeing
to the west or south. They seem to have coordinated the attack, at
least for the time being.

So in Syria it's a little different. Apparently, the Russians and the
Kurds are joining forces in Raqqa, backed by American artillery. The
battle hasn't yet begun, so we won't know for a while whether this
will work.

So we have two "small picture" issues and a dozen "big picture"
issues. Up until the last couple of months, all of these forces were
able to keep separate. The al-Assad regime was fighting in Aleppo,
Turkey was fighting in northern Syria, Russia and the US-led coalition
were coordinating airstrikes. But those simple solutions are no
longer possible.

I read many media sources from many countries every day, and I have
not read any article or analysis or white paper that convinces me that
anyone has the vaguest clue what's going to happen in the endgame, if
and when ISIS is defeated.

And this is why many people are concerned about the new deployment of
American forces to Manbij and Raqqa. The concern is that once ISIS is
defeated, all these forces will start fighting each other, and US
troops will be drawn in and be part of a major new war.

As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. We may be seeing the start of that major regional war in
Manbij and Raqqa. Gulf News and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Arab News and The National (UAE) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• US forced to choose between two close allies, as Turks bomb Kurds in Syria (29-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij, Raqqa,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, Rojava, Russia,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Iraq, Mosul,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Robert Ford, Kuwait, Iran, Hezbollah

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims responsibility for hospital attack in Kabul, Afghanistan
  
• CENTCOM commander: Afghanistan 'stalemate' requires 'thousands' more US troops
  
• Report: Trump administration shuts out Russia and Turkey in Syria
  

****
**** ISIS claims responsibility for hospital attack in Kabul, Afghanistan
****


Afghan Taliban (AP)

Militants dressed as doctors on Wednesday stormed the largest military
hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan. The militants were armed with guns
and grenades, and gained entry after one detonated explosives at a
hospital gate and then opened fire on staff and patients.

The attack began at 9 am. One hospital staff member who was able to
get out saw an attacker "wearing a white coat holding a Kalashnikov
and opening fire on everyone, including the guards, patients and
doctors." More than 30 people were killed, and dozens more were
wounded.

The Afghan Taliban have conducted similar terror attacks in the past,
but they've denied responsibility for Wednesday's attack. The
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) did claim
responsibility, once again raising the question of what it means for
Syria-based ISIS to be taking responsibility for a terror attack in
Kabul.

In Syria, ISIS was formed mainly by thousands of young men coming from
over 80 countries around, wanting to fight Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad after he began massacring and committing atrocities against
innocent Sunni women and children. These included young jihadists
from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Now that ISIS has become a brand name (like al-Qaeda), it's using the
same model to form ISIS branches in other countries, including
Afghanistan. According to Afghanistan's national security adviser
Hanif Atmar said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"First of all, the violent extremist organizations
> that we are confronted by are not just Taliban. There are four
> groups — first, Taliban and Haqqanis; second Pakistani groups
> including LeT, JeM, LeJ, TTP and others; third are regional groups
> like ETIM [East Turkestan Islamic Movement (mainly Uighurs)] and
> IMU [Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan], and fourth are international
> terrorists like Daesh [ISIS] and Al Qaeda.
>
> These four groups have a symbiotic relationship with the Afghan
> terrorists. They need the Afghans, the Afghans need them. Second,
> they have symbiotic relationships with the two other relationships
> I described earlier, the criminal economy and state
> sponsorship. ...
>
> Our response cannot be peace and reconciliation. We can make peace
> and reconciliation with the Afghan groups based on certain
> principles, but cannot reconcile with the other three groups. They
> are not fighting there for anything related to Afghanistan. They
> want to have a sanctuary there to fight others. LeT would like a
> sanctuary to fight India, ETIM to fight China, and so on. We told
> our Pakistani interlocutors that Taliban will allow sanctuary to
> the TTP, your enemy. Therefore, blind support to the Taliban will
> be creating a frankenstein again."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Of particular importance is that the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan
Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban or TTP) are distinct groups, though they're
both from the Pashtun ethnic group, and they provide havens for each.
As I've described in the past, their behaviors are significantly
different, because they're in different generational eras. Pakistan's
last generational crisis war was the 1947 Partition war that created
Pakistan and India, and so the Pakistan Taliban are in a generational
Crisis era. Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the
1992-96 civil war between Afghan ethnic groups, and so the Afghan
Taliban are in a generational Awakening era. That's the reason why
Atmar can say that "We can make peace and reconciliation with the
Afghan groups based on certain principles, but cannot reconcile with
the other three groups."

One fascinating sign of this that I wrote about in 2008
was a study by the Jamestown Foundation that
showed that Afghan Taliban suicide bombers almost never kill anyone
but themselves. That study appears as part of a lengthy article that
I wrote at the time on the Sunni-Shia conflict. It's a fascinating
example of how a societies beliefs and behaviors can differ radically
and predictably, depending on what generational era they're in.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and CNN and Times of India

Related Articles

• The Taliban jihadists: The World's Worst Suicide Bombers (22-Dec-2008)
  
  
• The Afghanistan elections and the Afghan-Pakistan Taliban alliance (13-Apr-2014)
  

****
**** CENTCOM commander: Afghanistan 'stalemate' requires 'thousands' more US troops
****

A month ago, General John W. Nicholson, command of the US forces in
Afghanistan, testified to Congress that the war in Afghanistan was in
a "stalemate," and that thousands more American troops would be
required. After Wednesday's attack in Kabul, CENTCOM command Joseph
Votel said that he agreed with those statements.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I do believe it will involve additional forces to
> ensure that we can make the advise-and-assist mission more
> effective."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Afghanistan’s ambassador to the U.S., Hamdullah Mohib, said his
country would welcome additional troops. He said that he's encouraged
by what he's seen so far from the Trump administration:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They’re not hesitant. There is no hesitancy that I
> noticed with the previous administration on the war on terrorism
> and their engagement in that aspect.
>
> We welcome that because what we need now more than anything is an
> attitude of winning, an attitude of ending this conflict once and
> for all. And we have had a lot of positive hints from the
> administration in that regard."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Thursday, the White House said that the administration is reviewing
its Afghanistan policy, including whether to send more U.S. troops.
Military Times and ABC News and Defense One (2-Feb) and Senate Armed Services Committee hearings (2-Feb)

Related Articles

• Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms (12-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan (08-May-2015)
  

****
**** Report: Trump administration shuts out Russia and Turkey in Syria
****

In yesterday's article,
I wrote
that the deployment of hundreds of additional American troops into the
Syrian battles at Manbij and Raqqa continues the policy from the
previous administration of minimal involvement, only supporting local
forces with airstrikes and artillery. Thus, Russia, Iran and Turkey
would continue to take the lead.

However, according to Debka, the administration of president Donald
Trump is being far more aggressive than that description suggests.

As long-time readers know, I like to reference Debka's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), which is written from
Israel's point of view, because they have military and intelligence
sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to
warn readers that they definitely do get some things wrong. The
information that I'm presenting here from their newsletter is not
confirmed by any other sources I've seen, but it's generally
consistent with other reports.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Elements of the 25th Rangers Regiment, spearhead of
> the forthcoming offensive to liberate Raqqa from the Islamic
> State, flew in from Fort Lewis air base, Washington, to the US air
> facility in Rmeilan, near the Syrian Kurdish town of Hasaka. They
> were equipped with light Stryker tanks. More tanks and heavy
> equipment reached the base overland from Iraqi Kurdistan.
>
> Coming in from Iraq was the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, part
> of an artillery battery with M777 Howitzers for firing 155-mm
> shells. The Marine unit's ground force consists of the Landing
> Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marines for manning the guns and providing
> fire support for the local forces assigned to the assault on
> Raqqa. Additional infantrymen from this unit are available to
> provide security.
>
> Gen. Dunford did not need to explain to the Russian and Turkish
> generals what had happened. It was obvious that President Donald
> Trump had jumped the gun on Moscow and Ankara. At one stroke, he
> had knocked over all ... question marks hanging over his
> administration's Middle East orientation:
>
>

• The United States had decided to come down heavily on
  > direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict. ...
  >
• America was ready to go to war on the Islamic State terrorists
  > without the standard wrapping of a 'coalition' and only a
  > competent local force. ...
  >
• The local force chosen for the Raqqa operation is the
  > Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force, an alliance of 45,000 Syrian
  > Kurdish fighters of the YPG militia, which has proven its prowess
  > in combat against ISIS, and 10,000 members of the Arab Shammar
  > tribe of northern Syria. ...
  >
• Neither Russia, nor Syria or Turkey received invitations for
  > their armies to join the US Raqqa offensive. Therefore, Vladimir
  > Putin, Bashar Assad and Tayyip Edrogan are cut out of any say in
  > the American military operation. ...
  >
• The prominently posted images of US tanks flying the Stars and
  > Stripes and the Pentagon spokesman's description of 'deliberate
  > action,' posted a keep-out marker for the Russian and Turkish
  > forces at the scene. ...
  >
• Gen. Dunford notified his Russian and Turkish colleagues that
  > the American army's first mission in Syria was to capture the
  > ISIS stronghold of Raqqa, following which the troops would make
  > for the Deir ez-Zour province and undertake the task of cleansing
  > northern and eastern Syria of Islamist concentrations. ...
  >
• [Turkey's] President Erdogan [expressed] strong objections to
  > the American plan and raise his voice in particular against the
  > Kurdish-led SDF's integration in the Raqqa operation.
  >
• The Turks were not content with angry words. US Air Force jets
  > preparing to take off from the southern Turkish Incirlik air base
  > were slowed by official red tape over the necessary permits. The
  > air crews picked up rumors that Erdogan was about to cancel
  > permission for the US warplanes to use the
  > base.

<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Debka report is not confirmed by other sources, though it's
consistent with other media reports. If it's true, then it marks a
substantial change in Mideast policy by the Trump administration, in
contrast to the Obama administration. In particular, for the first
time, American forces are taking the lead in defining and implementing
a clear objective - the defeat of ISIS in Raqqa. Whether this is a
change in outcome or just a change in tone remains to be seen.
USA Today and Debka

Related Articles

• As more American troops are deployed to Syria, the endgame is more uncertain (10-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Pakistan, India,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afghan Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Pashtuns,
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
Hanif Atmar, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
John W. Nicholson, CENTCOM, Joseph Votel, Hamdullah Mohib,
Turkey, Syria, Manbij, Raqqa, Kurds, Russia, Iran

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Mar-17 World View -- Netherlands provokes growing crisis with Turkey by blocking ministers' entry

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Netherlands provokes growing crisis with Turkey by blocking ministers' entry
  
• Turkey's crisis with Germany, Austria, Netherlands has been escalating
  
• The escalating crisis once again throws EU-Turkey migrant deal into doubt
  

****
**** Netherlands provokes growing crisis with Turkey by blocking ministers' entry
****


Demonstrators outside the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam on Saturday evening (Reuters)

Dutch riot police on horseback used batons and water cannon to
disperse hundreds of pro-Turkey demonstrators at the Turkish consulate
in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, on Saturday evening, after two
ministers in Turkey's government were blocked from entering the
Netherlands.

The clashes between protesters and police are part of an escalating
crisis in relations between Turkey and the European Union, that has
been growing for the three weeks.

On Saturday, the Netherlands refused to permit Turkey's foreign
minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to land in the country, and forced his plane
to turn back to Istanbul. Cavusoglu was planning to address a rally
in Rotterdam of the Turkish citizens living in the Netherlands to
campaign for approval of a referendum vote that will take place in
Turkey on April 16. The Netherlands action comes just days before an
election in that country is expected to show significant gains for the
anti-Islam leader of the Freedom Party, Geert Wilders, who campaigned
against the Turkish minister's visit.

Returning to Istanbul airport, Cavusoglu said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"So they cancelled it due to security concerns, what,
> so is the minister a terrorist? We will give them the response
> they deserve. ...
>
> We have received many supportive messages from the Netherlands,
> saying they don't agree with their government's racist, fascist
> policies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Upon hearing that Cavusoglu had been forced to turn back, Turkey's
Minister of Family and Social Policies Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya, who had
been at a meeting in Germany, drove overland to Rotterdam to speak to
demonstrators. She was stopped by Dutch police and forced to return
back across the border to Germany. Through her twitter account, Kaya
condemned Dutch authorities in "the name of all our citizens," and
said, "The whole world must take action against this fascist practice!
Such a treatment against a woman minister cannot be accepted."

The action against Kaya triggered violence on the part of the hundreds
of protesters at the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam, throwing bottles
and mobbing police vehicles. AP

****
**** Turkey's crisis with Germany, Austria, Netherlands has been escalating
****

Tensions between Turkey and the European Union have been growing for
some time, but they began to reach a crisis point last weekend when
two German cities, Cologne and Gaggenau, canceled March 5 rallies that
Turkish citizens had planned in support of Turkey's government and the
April 16 referendum. This was after Austria's government had
previously said that Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan would not
be permitted hold rallies in Austria. There are some 400,000 Turks
living in the Netherlands, and 300,000 living in Austria, many with
the right to vote in Turkey's elections.

Turkey's politicians are already furious because EU politicians are
always lecturing them about human rights. This has been particularly
true since the failed coup attempt that occurred on July 15 of last
year, after which Turkey's government has fired or arrested over
100,000 people suspected of involvement in the coup with virtually no
evidence. This has included the arrest of a number of journalists,
including the February 27 arrest of Turkish-German journalist Deniz
Yücel, who writes for the German newspaper Die Welt.

So, from Turkey's point of view, the EU is always lecturing Turkey
about journalistic freedom, freedom of speech and human rights, and
now EU politicians were blocking perfectly legal rallies begin held in
Germany.

A furious Erdogan lashed out:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I thought that Nazism was over in Germany, but it
> turns out that it is still going on. It is still going on, it is
> clear.
>
> My brothers; now they think that Tayyip Erdogan will come to
> Germany. I will come tomorrow if I want to. I will come and when
> they won't let me enter or don't let me talk, I will set the whole
> world in an uproar."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Monday, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel commented on Erdogan's
utterances:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"One cannot even comment on such utterances, they are
> not justifiable. Comparisons with Nazis always just lead to one
> thing -- to belittle those crimes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Merkel tried to calm things down with Erdogan this week, but the
crisis sharply escalated again on Saturday when the Netherlands
blocked Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from attending a
rally by Turkish citizens in Rotterdam.

After Cavusoglu was denied entry, Erdogan said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They don't know anything about politics or
> international diplomacy. They are very nervous, and they are
> cowards. They are Nazi remnants. They are
> Fascists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Netherland's prime minister Mark Rutte called Erdogan's words a "crazy
remark," and said, "I understand they are angry but this is of course
way out of line." BBC (27-Feb) and
Hurriyet (Istanbul, 28-Feb) and CNN (6-Mar) and BBC

****
**** The escalating crisis once again throws EU-Turkey migrant deal into doubt
****

On Saturday, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, said on
Saturday that all deals with the European Union, including the
EU-Turkey migrant deal, would be jeopardized if the EU failed to
implement its commitment to visa-free travel for Turks in Europe's
Schengen Zone. As part of the original agreement, the visa
liberalization commitment was scheduled to be implemented in June of
last year, but the EU has continued to postpone it.

Cavusoglu said that Turkey would present a final text to the EU "and
either it will all be canceled, including the visa liberalization and
migrant deal, or it will all be implemented."

Turkish officials have made this threat before, but the events of the
last week have so infuriated both sides that the threat is now more
likely to be carried out than before.

There's a completely separate threat to the EU-Turkey migrant deal,
and this one is coming from Greece.

Greece's highest administrative court, the Greek Council of State, will
rule later this month on whether Turkey meets the criteria to be a
"safe country" for refugees -- whether refugees can live safely in
Turkey. If the court rules that Turkey is not a "safe country," it
would have far-reaching consequences. It would make it illegal for
the EU to send rejected asylum-seekers back to Turkey. Furthermore,
it would open the door to allowing the three million Syrian refugees
already living in Turkey to come to Europe.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the
coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China will be allied with
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries, including Turkey, while the
West will be allied with India, Russia and Iran. A recurring
discussion is over the question of how the European countries will
align themselves: will they ally as a unit, or will they split and
fight among themselves, as they have in every other war in history?
The continuing crisis with Turkey may provide some clarification.
Reuters and Eur Activ and Middle East Eye

Related Articles

• Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan eliminates more opposition in quest for power (06-Nov-2016)
  
  
• A dark shadow looms over EU-Turkey refugee deal, as Turkey passes harsh anti-Kurdish law (21-May-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal (23-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Netherlands, Rotterdam, Mark Rutte, Geert Wilders,
Turkey, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya, Deniz Yücel,
Austria, Germany, Angela Merkel, Greece

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Mar-17 World View -- Al-Nusra descendant claims credit for massive terror attack in Damascus, Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Nusra descendant claims credit for massive terror attack in Damascus, Syria
  
• Al-Nusra becomes Levant Liberation Committee (LLC) and gains at expense of ISIS
  

****
**** Al-Nusra descendant claims credit for massive terror attack in Damascus, Syria
****


Aftermath of double terror explosions in Damascus suburb (ARA News)

Two explosions killed 74 people and injured 120 more in Damascus, the
capital city of Syria, on Saturday.
The second of the two explosions went off ten minutes after the first,
killing many who came to help the wounded from the first explosion.

The attacks targeted Shia pilgrims from Iraq who were visiting one of
Shia Islam's holiest sites, the Bab al-Saghir cemetery. The cemetery
is near one of the seven gates of the old city of Damascus, and many
prominent religious figures are buried there, including family members
of the Prophet Muhammad.

On Sunday, a group with the previously unknown name Levant Liberation
Committee (LLC), also known as Tahrir al-Sham, took credit for the
attacks. LLC is the current incarnation of the former al-Qaeda linked
Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). The group issued a statement saying
that it was targeting Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad
and Iran-linked Shia targets in general:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"On Saturday... a twin attack was carried out by two
> heroes of Islam ... in the center of the capital Damascus, killing
> and wounding dozens. ...
>
> Iran and its militias have, from the start of the revolution,
> supported the tyrannical and criminal regime and have been killing
> and displacing our people, This is a message to Iran and its
> militias that the right will not go wasted."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Last year, the delusional Bashar al-Assad issued a delusional
statement saying that the destruction of Aleppo would be a victory
that would be remembered throughout history, and that it would end the
war, since the jihadists would no longer have any reason to continue
fighting. In December, a ceasefire came into effect, brokered by
Russia, Iran and Turkey, but it's never been a ceasefire in more than
in name only.

Two weeks ago, the LLC carried out another major terrorist attack,
this one in Homs. It was a very complex, well-planned attack on some
of al-Assad's most highly secure military installations, killing 32
people and injuring dozens more. In particular, Major-General Hassan
Daaboul, head of Syrian regime's Military Security Department, was
killed during the attacks.

There has never been any credible reason to support al-Assad's
delusional belief that a victory in Aleppo or any other city would
bring about the end of Syria's civil war. These two terror attacks by
a single group, two weeks ago in Homs and on Saturday in Damascus,
obviously have the objectives of stoking sectarian Sunni vs Shia
conflicts and of proving to al-Assad, Russia and Iran that the war is
far from over.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other. The actions by this terror
group bring that day much closer. ARA News (Damascus) and France 24 and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

• Syria's so-called ceasefire collapses after terrorist bombings in Homs (26-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement (25-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation (11-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Al-Nusra becomes Levant Liberation Committee (LLC) and gains at expense of ISIS
****

In January 2012, a shadowy al-Qaeda linked terrorist group called the
"al-Nusra Battlefront" appeared in Syria and conducted a series of car
and bomb attacks. In May of that year, it was behind the first major
terror attack against the al-Assad regime, twin suicide car bombs
outside a military intelligence building in Damascus, killing 55
people. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, the successor to Osama bin
Laden, issued a statement asking terrorists to support the group.

In 2012-3, a parallel development occurred, when thousands of young
jihadists came to Syria to fight al-Assad, who was massacring,
torturing and committing atrocities against thousands of Sunni Muslims
in Syria, including many women and children. Al-Assad's attack on a
Palestinian refugee camp near Latakia in October 2011 in particular
energized young jihadists around the world. They came to Syria and
formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Thus, Syrian jihadists joined Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra front), while
foreign jihadists joined ISIS. Since then, ISIS expanded into Iraq
and had some major successes, but today is under attack and facing
existential threats in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria.

Al-Nusra, which is a jihadist group of mostly local Syrian fighters,
appears to have taken a more methodical approach, without
overstretching as ISIS did. Many anti-Assad fighters in Syria didn't
want to join a foreign terror organization like al-Qaeda, since they
felt that their fight was against al-Assad, but not targets in Asia or
Europe or other countries. So in July of last year, al-Nusra split
with al-Qaeda, and changed its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS,
Front for the Conquest of Syria). Many people have doubted the
sincerity of that split, but it did have the purpose of making the
group more welcoming to Syrians who wanted to fight al-Assad, but
didn't want to join al-Qaeda.

In January, JFS announced another organizational change and another
name change. It would become Hayat Tahrir al-Sham -- Liberation of
the Levant Organization, or the Levant Liberation Committee
(LLC). Furthermore, LLC would be a merger with four smaller local
groups -- the Nour al-Din Zinki Movement, one of the most important
opposition factions in Aleppo province, Ansar al-Din Front, the
Homs-based Jaysh al-Sunnah, and Liwa al-Haqq, which operates in Idlib,
Aleppo and Hama provinces. Under the new name, LLC has conducted two
spectacular terrorist acts in the last two weeks, the one in Homs two
weeks ago, and the one in Damascus on Saturday.

This seems to point to a trend that we already suggested in our article two days ago
on Syria and
Afghanistan. ISIS is claiming to be an international organization,
and it supports that claim by taking credit for any terrorist attack
anywhere, whether it was part of it or not. In addition, some
local jihadist groups are pledging allegiance to ISIS, giving it
the appearance of being larger than it is.

Although ISIS was successful in drawing thousands of jihadists to
Syria, it really doesn't make sense for someone to want to spend his
life fighting someone else's war in someone else's country. So while
ISIS is claiming to be an international organization, what we're
seeing is that it's really a collection of local jihadist groups in
different countries, with no real connection to one another beyond
public relations.

In Syria, the al-Assad regime rarely attacked ISIS, and considered
them his ally, because they were fighting against al-Nusra and other
Sunni groups, which were al-Assad's real targets. However, now we see
that this has not ended well for either al-Assad or ISIS. ISIS is
under attack from local Kurdish and Arab militias in Mosul and Raqqa,
and al-Assad is under attack from local LLC militias in Damascus and
Homs.

One can enjoy a certain amount of Schadenfreude that when a
psychopathic war criminal like al-Assad decided to ally himself with a
horrific terror group like ISIS, it's ending badly for both of them.
Making a deal with the devil really doesn't seem to pay off, even for
another devil. Unfortunately, as Generational Dynamics predicts, when
these two devils become allies it also means that the rest of us will
suffer, as the Mideast heads into a major sectarian war that will
engulf the region and the world. BBC (28-Feb)
and BBC (4-Jan-2016)

Related Articles

• Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (29-Jul-2016)
  
  
• US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria (11-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria suicide bombs may be linked to al-Qaeda's 'al-Nusra Battlefront' (11-May-2012)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Damascus, Homs, Bashar al-Assad, Hassan Daaboul,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Shia, Alawite, Sunni,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Aleppo, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Mosul, Raqqa,
Nour al-Din Zinki Movement, Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunnah, Liwa al-Haqq

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

There's so much sadness in the world, in all the subjects that I write
about. I can usually just pretend that it's all happening on another
planet, but this picture in Syria really got to me:



What a sad picture.

[Kinser79]

(03-13-2017, 02:37 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-13-2017, 12:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There's so much sadness in the world, in all the subjects that I write
about.  I can usually just pretend that it's all happening on another
planet, but this picture in Syria really got to me:



What a sad picture.

There were many diystopian films during the 2T. Some of the best ones were during the late 2T (Mad Max, The Terminator, etc). Those films depicted the advanced countries. Well, here it is 30 - 40 years later and the advanced countries did not turn out that way. But lo and behold, in places like Syria on the other hand ....

And yet it never occurs to some that perhaps places like Syria and so forth are the way they are because of the, perhaps well intentioned, meddling of others. That perhaps the most humanitarian thing to do is to do nothing.

[Galen]

(03-13-2017, 02:51 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(03-13-2017, 02:37 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-13-2017, 12:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There's so much sadness in the world, in all the subjects that I write
about.  I can usually just pretend that it's all happening on another
planet, but this picture in Syria really got to me:



What a sad picture.

There were many diystopian films during the 2T. Some of the best ones were during the late 2T (Mad Max, The Terminator, etc). Those films depicted the advanced countries. Well, here it is 30 - 40 years later and the advanced countries did not turn out that way. But lo and behold, in places like Syria on the other hand ....

And yet it never occurs to some that perhaps places like Syria and so forth are the way they are because of the, perhaps well intentioned, meddling of others.  That perhaps the most humanitarian thing to do is to do nothing.

Odd how that never occurs to anyone.  Maybe there is some merit to the non-aggression principle after all.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Mar-17 World View -- Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea
  
• A sad picture
  

****
**** Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea
****


China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a recent meeting (AP)

In what some are describing as a "World War II show of force," Japan
is planning to send its largest warship, the JS Izumo, to the South
China Sea during the summer. It will train with the US Navy in the
South China Sea, will make stops in Singapore, Indonesia, the
Philippines and Sri Lanka, and will join Indian and U.S. naval forces
in the Indian Ocean for military exercises in July.

The JS Izumo is not a traditional aircraft carrier, but is called a
"helicopter destroyer." It can carry up to fourteen helicopters, and
specializes primarily in anti-submarine missions. The threat of an
expanded Chinese submarine fleet was a key driver of Japan developing
the Izumo.

The word "destroyer" usually refers to a warship equipped to serve in
a defensive rather than an offensive role. This is necessary because
Japan's post-war pacifist constitution forbids acquisition of
offensive weapons, and forbids military action except in self-defense
on Japanese soil. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has been
campaigning for years to amend the constitution to permit offensive
operations, but the proposal has been extremely controversial.
Instead, Abe has succeeded in redefining "self-defense" to mean
"collective self-defense," which allows Japanese to defend Japan's
allies anywhere in the world. The "helicopter destroyer" designation
is consistent with the warship's use for collective self-defense.

China has repeatedly objected to Japan operating warships in the South
China Sea. Referring to World War II, China's foreign ministry
spokesman said last year:

<blockquote">Japan should reflect upon rather than forget what it
has done during the aggression, act and speak cautiously on issues
concerning the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and make
more efforts to increase mutual trust with its neighbors and
promote regional peace and stability instead of sowing
discord."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

In fact, naming the warship "Izumo" is highly symbolic, as it's the
name of a Japanese World War II warship which was originally used in a
decisive Japanese victory in the 1905 Battle of Tsushima in a war
between Russia and Japan. US Naval Institute and Reuters

Related Articles

• Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
  
  
• China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' (18-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
  

****
**** A sad picture
****

There's so much sadness in the world, in all the subjects that I write
about. I can usually get through it by pretending that it's all
happening on another planet, but this picture in Syria really got to
me:




What a sad picture. As one person pointed out, it looks like one of
those dystopian movies from the 70s and 80s. Al-Jazeera

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, JS Izumo, Shinzo Abe

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Mar-17 World View -- Bahrain postpones trial of Shia cleric after threats from Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bahrain postpones trial of Shia cleric after threats from Iran
  
• Iran - Saudi Arabia relations continue to deteriorate
  

****
**** Bahrain postpones trial of Shia cleric after threats from Iran
****


Manama's Pearl Square after March 15, 2011, Arab Spring protests. The beautiful Pearl monument was torn down by the regime on March 18, because it was thought to be encouraging protests.

A ruling in the trial of Bahrain's leading Shia cleric, Sheikh Isa
Ahmed Qasim, on charges of corruption and money laundering, was
postponed on Tuesday to May 7. No reason was given for the
postponement, but it was announced after an Iranian cleric said that
the arrest of Qasim would be followed by a "bloodbath" in Bahrain.
Qasim was also charged with promoting "sectarianism and violence" and
"helping terrorism."

On Sunday, a senior adviser to Iran's parliament said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Holding trial for Ayatollah Sheikh Qassim is an
> unwise act and the Bahraini government should know that it will
> never be able to bear the consequences of such an unwise measure.
>
> "The Bahraini government is facing a serious crisis much worse
> than the challenge that it faced when detaining Sheikh Ali Salman,
> as trying Ayatollah Issa Qasim will be the depth of the
> crisis."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In a speech on Monday in Iran, Sheikh Abdullah al-Daqqaq said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Bahraini government felt threatened by the
> popular uprising under the leadership of Sheikh Qasim and has
> taken some measures against him.
>
> Bahraini youths will not leave their leader (Qasim) alone. If
> Sheikh Isa Qasim is arrested a bloodbath will occur in
> Bahrain."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Al-Daqqaq called for nationwide strikes and civil disobedience.

Bahrain is led by an oppressive Sunni Muslim government closely allied
with Saudi Arabia. Tensions are high because 2/3 of the the
population are Shia Muslim, while only 1/3 are Sunni Muslim. In the
days following the "Arab Spring" protests in 2011, Bahrain's security
services overreacted with extremely violent and bloody massacres of
unarmed protesters, backed up by troops from Saudi Arabia. The Saudi
troops arrived in Bahrain after crossing a long bridge connecting the
two countries. The protests began in Bahrain on February 14, 2011.
Dozens of protesters were killed, over 1,600 were arrested, and
thousands were injured.

Writing about Iran and Bahrain is always interesting, because both
countries are equally bloody, jailing, massacring and torturing
peaceful protesters. Reuters and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Tehran) and Tasnim News (Tehran)

Related Articles

• Iran threatens coup, after Bahrain revokes citizenship of Shia cleric (21-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Bahrain tensions rise as Sunni government cracks down on Shias (18-Jul-2016)
  
  
• HRW: Bahrain's Sunni government continues abusing and torturing Shia majority (03-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive (15-Mar-2011)
  

****
**** Iran - Saudi Arabia relations continue to deteriorate
****

The increasingly sectarian war in Syria between Shia/Alawites and
Sunni Muslims continues to polarize the entire Mideast along the
Shia-Sunni fault line. This has been particularly true in the
relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, respectively the major Sunni
Muslim country and the major Shia Muslim country.

Relations between the two countries became explosive early in 2016
when Saudi Arabia executed 47 alleged terrorists -- 46 Sunnis and one
Shia, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr. Iran and Shias were infuriated
because the execution implied that Shia terrorism is equivalent to
Sunni terrorism. Iranian mobs firebombed the Saudi embassy in Tehran,
and attacked the consulate in Meshaad. Saudi Arabia and Iran broke
diplomatic relations as a result. Other Saudi allies followed suit.

There are many bitter disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and
one of the worst is the outcome of stampede that occurred at the
annual Hajj pilgrimage near Mecca in 2015. All Muslims are required
to take part in the Hajj at least one in their lifetimes, and so there
are always millions of people taking part each year. In 2015, one of
the roads became so crowded with people that there was a stampede that
killed hundreds of people who were trampled to death, including 464
Iranians. Although Saudi officials blamed "inevitable fate and
destiny" for the disaster, Iranian officials blamed the disaster on
the incompetence of Saudi officials, and even criminal acts by them.

Iran banned Iranians from attending the Hajj in 2016, after months of
talks between the two countries failed to lead to agreement over blame
for the 2015 incident and security guarantees for the 2016 Hajj. The
2017 Hajj will occur in August. Iran and Saudi Arabia are in talks
over the same issues as in 2016, and although "relative progress" has
been claimed, it's quite possible that Iranians will be banned from
this year's Hajj as well.

Another major issue separating Saudi Arabia and Iran is the war in
Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels are fighting Saudi-backed Sunni
militias, supported by Saudi airstrikes.

China has offered to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia, according
to China's foreign minister Wang Yi:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We hope that Saudi Arabia and Iran can resolve the
> problems that exist between them via equal and friendly
> consultations. China is friends with both Saudi Arabia and
> Iran. If there is a need China is willing to play our necessary
> role."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China is actively seeking friendship with all Mideast countries, since
it needs to import vast amounts of oil. However, as regular readers
are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching
Clash of Civilizations world war, China will be allied with the Sunni
Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, while the West
will be allied with Iran, Russia and India. Al Monitor and Al Araby

Related Articles

• After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah' (27-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj (27-May-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran (18-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Iran, Sheikh Abdullah al-Daqqaq,
Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qasim, Saudi Arabia,
Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Hajj, Yemen, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Regarding that Syrian picture with the children that I presume was taken in either Aleppo or Homs or their environs, Xers and Millies laugh at them. They deserved what they got, when you rebel against true human values and masculinity and embrace globalistic and childish decadence, like a large proportion of the people of Syria did, THOSE are the consequences you can expect. Shedding crocodile tears like you are doing (because lets admit it, you only care about "helping" them because it suits you and other boomers globalistic agenda) does not change the law of nature. Trump, Duterte and soon to be Le Pen are taking the west back to its strong Manly Roman-derived roots. Trump is tearing down the old image of Americans as helpers of the rest of the world, for now on the new attitude of america will be: we will keep what we have for ourselves; to foreign nations: as long as your sufferings does not negatively impact ourselves or our prosperity, we will not care whether you refugees live or die, you exist to serve us. LONG LIVE TRUMP AND THE NEW AMERICA HE IS CREATING. WE MILLENNIALS AND XERS will not allow TRUMP to be "defanged"; we will not allow him to be turned into a puppet for the Neo-liberal/Neocon/Globalist agenda of global decadence.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-15-2017, 10:42 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Regarding that Syrian picture with the children that I presume was
> taken in either Aleppo or Homs or their environs, Xers and Millies
> laugh at them. They deserved what they got, when you rebel against
> true human values and masculinity and embrace globalistic and
> childish decadence, like a large proportion of the people of Syria
> did, THOSE are the consequences you can expect. Shedding crocodile
> tears like you are doing (because lets admit it, you only care
> about "helping" them because it suits you and other boomers
> globalistic agenda) does not change the law of nature. Trump,
> Duterte and soon to be Le Pen are taking the west back to its
> strong Manly Roman-derived roots. Trump is tearing down the old
> image of Americans as helpers of the rest of the world, for now on
> the new attitude of america will be: we will keep what we have for
> ourselves; to foreign nations: as long as your sufferings does not
> negatively impact ourselves or our prosperity, we will not care
> whether you refugees live or die, you exist to serve us. LONG LIVE
> TRUMP AND THE NEW AMERICA HE IS CREATING. WE MILLENNIALS AND XERS
> will not allow TRUMP to be "defanged"; we will not allow him to be
> turned into a puppet for the Neo-liberal/Neocon/Globalist agenda
> of global decadence.

I'm going to guess that whoever laughs at that picture has never had
sons.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-15-2017, 11:53 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Somewhat OT question for you John. Do you think we have Russian
> trolls on this forum?

The only Russian troll I'm aware of was Justin '77, though I haven't
seen him since 2014 in the old forum.

(03-15-2017, 11:53 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Follow on question, what do you think would happen if the
> management of this forum used the same approaches you did for
> dealing with Russian trolls?

I'm not sure what you're asking me. I always confront trolls by
responding to their posts. Even in my own forum, I've never shut
anyone out (except spammers). In a place like Breitbart, I have no
other choice anyway.

[John J. Xenakis]

About five or six years ago, there were some trolls in my forum
posting offensive messages. I handled them by moving their messages
to other threads where they could troll all they wanted.

[SomeGuy]

He appears to be convinced myself and a few other people are Russian agents for some reason.  We told him to adjust his meds, and he said that that was just further proof that we are in fact working for Putin.

*shrugs*

[Cynic Hero '86]

Yeah anyone who doesn't accept the political class' view of what America should be like is a "Russian Troll". It Never occurs to Neocons and Neolibs that a growing majority of the American People are tired of being ruled by the globalist/financial class. Not That Russia is not an adversary of the US, It is, but nations prior to the boomers dealt with such things by tried and true methods, Realpolitik, Military Buildups for deterrence or as a final resort, war. America ever since the boomers assumed power has turned its back on the traditions that had made the country and western civilization as a whole great. The numerous opportunities over the past 30 years wasted because selfish boomers had to go "my human rights, my globalism" in reply to any suggestion that they are collectively incompetent idiots while taking up all the space in the government and ramming down disgusting feminine philosophies down the American People's throat. If it wasn't for the boomers we would have transformed into a military state soon after 9/11.

[SomeGuy]

Have you been taking YOUR medication?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Mar-17 World View -- Terrorist bombings in Damascus, airstrikes in Idlib, break Syria's ceasefire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Terrorist bombings in Damascus, airstrikes in Idlib, break Syria's ceasefire
  
• Russian troops join Americans, Kurds, Sunni rebels in Manbij, Syria
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad says that the Americans are invaders
  

****
**** Terrorist bombings in Damascus, airstrikes in Idlib, break Syria's ceasefire
****


Aftermath of terrorist bombing in Damascus (CNN)

Wednesday was another day of a great deal of bloody violence across
Syria, at a time when there's supposed to be a ceasefire in effect and
peace talks in process.

A suicide bomber blew himself up at old Justice Palace building,
Syria's central court, in the heart of Damascus. The terrorist, who
was dressed in a military uniform and was carrying a gun and a
grenade, was stopped by the guards at the external door of the old
Justice Palace building. After he handed over his gun and grenade to
the guards as he was told to do, he ran quickly towards the door of
the lobby of the Justice Palace, where there was a large were a large
group of people, and blew himself up. At least 32 people were killed
and 100 wounded.

An hour later, another suicide bomber struck at a restaurant at the
outskirts of Damascus, killing a large number of civilians, mostly
women and children.

On Saturday, 74 people were killed and 120 more were injured. The
casualties were mostly Shia pilgrims visiting one of Shia Islam's
holiest sites, the Bab al-Saghir cemetery. Two weeks earlier, a
complex, well-planned terror attack in Homs on one of Syria's most
highly secure military installations killed 32 people. An indigenous
Sunni jihadist group, Levant Liberation Committee (LLC), formerly the
al-Qaeda linked al-Nusra, took credit for Saturday's attack and the
attack in Homs.

Nobody has taken credit for the latest terror attacks in Damascus on
Wednesday. LLC issued a statement denying responsibility for
Wednesday's attacks, saying that its targets are restricted to
security and military installations, but that's obviously a lie since
Saturday's attack was on innocent Shia pilgrims visiting a cemetary.

A delusional Syrian official said that "the terrorist bombings reflect
the state of collapse within the ranks of the terrorist organizations
as a result of the resilience of the Syrian people and the victories
of the Syrian Arab Army and its allies." He added that Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and Turkey are to blame for the terror attacks.

According to Democratic Senator Tim Kaine on Wednesday:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Syrian civil war -- one of the world's worst
> humanitarian crises since World War II -- continues to be the most
> dangerous and destabilizing conflict in the Middle East today.
>
> Six years in, Assad has created a safe haven for ISIS and
> Al-Qaeda, while he commits unspeakable acts of violence against
> his own people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In other ceasefire activity, 21 people were killed in Idlib by Syrian
and/or Russian warplanes.

SANA (Damascus) and SFGate and AFP

Related Articles

• Al-Nusra descendant claims credit for massive terror attack in Damascus, Syria (13-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria's so-called ceasefire collapses after terrorist bombings in Homs (26-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation (11-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Russian troops join Americans, Kurds, Sunni rebels in Manbij, Syria
****

As we've been reporting, American troops have been deployed to the
Syrian city of Manbij to keep the Sunni rebels loyal to Turkey and the
Kurdish militias, both allies of the United States, from killing each
other.

Now Russian troops are also in Manbij, and according to a US official
on Wednesday, the American and Russian troops can clearly see each
other. According to a military spokesman:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They can observe each other's movements. They can
> see each other. They are not talking to each other, and they are
> not hanging out together."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A plan to deploy an additional 1,000 ground troops to northern Syria
is awaiting approval by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and President
Trump. The additional troops will be used for the operation in Raqqa,
considered to be the capital city of the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). AFP and Military Times and Washington Post

Related Articles

• US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria (11-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad says that the Americans are invaders
****

In an interview with Hong Kong based Phoenix TV, Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad said that the American troops are invaders:

> [indent]<QUOTE>Question 8: Now, US troops are in Manbij. Is the
> greenlight from your side? Did you open the door for these
> American troops?
>
> President Assad: No, no, we didn’t. Any foreign troops coming to
> Syria without our invitation or consultation or permission, they
> are invaders, whether they are American, Turkish, or any other
> one. And we don’t think this is going to help. What are they going
> to do? To fight ISIS? The Americans lost nearly every war. They
> lost in Iraq, they had to withdraw at the end. Even in Somalia,
> let alone Vietnam in the past and Afghanistan, your neighboring
> country. They didn’t succeed anywhere they sent troops, they only
> create a mess; they are very good in creating problems and
> destroying, but they are very bad in finding
> solutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In the same interview, al-Assad was also asked how long the war would
last, and he gave a totally delusional answer:

> [indent]<QUOTE>Question 14: "How many days do you think this war is
> going to last?"
>
> President Assad: "If we presume that you don’t have foreign
> intervention, it will take a few months. It’s not very complicated
> internally. The complexity of this war is the foreign
> intervention. This is the problem. So, in the face of that
> intervention, the good thing that we gained during the war is the
> unity of the society. At the very beginning, the vision for many
> Syrians wasn’t very clear about what’s happening. Many believed
> the propaganda of the West about the reality, about the real
> story, that this is against the oppression. If it’s against the
> oppression, why the people in Saudi Arabia didn’t revolt, for
> example? So, now what we gained is this, this is our strongest
> foundation to end that war. We always have hope that this year is
> going to be the last year. But at the end, this is war and you
> can’t expect what is going to happen precisely."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So it's good to remember how we got here. The civil war in Syria was
caused by al-Assad when he unleashed his army and air force against
peaceful protesters in 2011. Up to that point, Turkey and Saudi
Arabia were friendly with al-Assad. Things really turned around in
August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a
large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens
of thousands of women and children Palestinians.

Al-Assad's unprovoked attack on this refugee camp, and the slaughter
of thousands of Palestinian women and children, drew young jihadists
from around the world to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting in the
formation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). Sunnis in Syria itself turned against al-Assad, forming
either "moderate" rebel militias or joining the jihadist Al-Nusra
Front, which is now the Levant Liberation Committee (LLC). Al-Assad
is responsible for displacing millions of Syrians, including over a
million that have flowed into Europe as refugees.

There is zero probability that the Syrian civil war will end as long
as al-Assad is in power. Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other. SANA (Damascus)

Related Articles

• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  
  
• After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad (13-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad (19-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Damascus, Homs, Bashar al-Assad,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Shia, Alawite, Sunni,
Levant Liberation Committee, LLC, Tim Kaine, Jim Mattis,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Iran, Idlib, Raqqa, Manbij, Latakia

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[John J. Xenakis]

(03-15-2017, 02:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > He appears to be convinced myself and a few other people are
> Russian agents for some reason. We told him to adjust his meds,
> and he said that that was just further proof that we are in fact
> working for Putin.

*shrugs*

(03-16-2017, 10:43 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > I can't tell whether you are a Russian troll, or merely an angry
> American who uses the same tactics as Russian trolls.

> How would anyone be able to tell? Russian trolls use Western
> sounding handles on the web.

Why do you think that Jordan is a Russian troll?

[Kinser79]

(03-16-2017, 10:43 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-15-2017, 02:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: He appears to be convinced myself and a few other people are Russian agents for some reason.  We told him to adjust his meds, and he said that that was just further proof that we are in fact working for Putin.

*shrugs*

I can't tell whether you are a Russian troll, or merely an angry American who uses the same tactics as Russian trolls.

How would anyone be able to tell? Russian trolls use Western sounding handles on the web.

He has to be an American.  He seems incapable of responding to the Russian Language when seeing it written and the Russian spam bots end up being reported by me.  So he's either really really disciplined or he's a yank.

I'm not a Russian (though you'll likely say that's proof I'm a highly trained FSB agent) but I can read not-so-technical Russian and speak a bit more.  Needed to know it in the USN when we were listening to Russian communications.  Didn't want to surface and slam into a fishing trawler or anything.

Finally how do we even know any of the so-called hacking going on is even the Russians doing it?  Were I a hacker, let alone a Russian one, I'd use a proxy server if I wanted to reach out and touch someone.

[Kinser79]

(03-16-2017, 11:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-15-2017, 02:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: >   He appears to be convinced myself and a few other people are
>   Russian agents for some reason.  We told him to adjust his meds,
>   and he said that that was just further proof that we are in fact
>   working for Putin.

*shrugs*

(03-16-2017, 10:43 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: >   I can't tell whether you are a Russian troll, or merely an angry
>   American who uses the same tactics as Russian trolls.

>   How would anyone be able to tell? Russian trolls use Western
>   sounding handles on the web.  

Why do you think that Jordan is a Russian troll?

My hypothesis is that Alphabet is mentally ill in some way.  But I'm not qualified to provide a diagnosis and even if I were I'd need more evidence than forum posts.  For all we know Alphabet is a Russian Troll himself and is projecting to throw everyone off his trail.