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(03-09-2020, 09:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: This thread is by far the most popular thread on the site because it's funny. If you can't get him out of our lives, at least you can laugh at him. And he keeps the comics in the money. Great cartoons and great monologues. What will they do without him?
Maybe the joke writers would have to work for a living, other than at further dividing the country?
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The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Recession? It is supposed to be a big scary word, but I wonder if we will wind up in a full scale depression.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(03-13-2020, 07:29 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Recession? It is supposed to be a big scary word, but I wonder if we will wind up in a full scale depression.
Many were scared of a full-scale depression late in 2008. We got a new President who did what he could get away with to solve the underlying problems. Only thing -- it was back to the same conditions that made another similar situation. Obama rescued the rich-and-powerful, and they used much of their revived profits to buy the political system. So it was back to the old imbalances, the callous treatment of working people, and finally a President who truly believes that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it leads to elite gain, indulgence, and power. Guess what? Those elites are not so competent that we can find their cruelty and greed necessary.
COVID-19 scares us as if it were a personal, or at least family, crisis. The death rate for an infection is very high for the elderly. When people start acting as if it is an honest-to-God Crisis and keeps doing so until the danger is not only over but also resolved permanently, it is a Crisis Era.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(03-10-2020, 05:06 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (03-09-2020, 09:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: This thread is by far the most popular thread on the site because it's funny. If you can't get him out of our lives, at least you can laugh at him. And he keeps the comics in the money. Great cartoons and great monologues. What will they do without him?
Maybe the joke writers would have to work for a living, other than at further dividing the country?
Dividing the country is what we need. Or more especially, victory by one side. Informing the people, with a laugh as a bonus; that's good work. What's also funny is you still don't get it. ![[Image: angel.png]](http://generational-theory.com/forum/images/smilies/angel.png)
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(03-14-2020, 01:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Dividing the country is what we need. Or more especially, victory by one side. Informing the people, with a laugh as a bonus; that's good work. What's also funny is you still don't get it.
I just find Trump no longer funny. It is something about him killing those he is supposed to protect for his own gain.
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This chart will be soon be terribly obsolete --- because another bad bear market shows signs of joining the other four:
![[Image: saupload_4-bad-bears.png]](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/10/11/saupload_4-bad-bears.png)
Obviously, huge losses in retirement savings is not funny. 32.7% off in one month is not quite as severe as the 47% at the 1929 Crash... but it is an ominous start.
Cashing out means that one pays taxes. Transferring the funds to an annuity means getting back a very low real return when interest rates are low. (The government seems to prefer that people do so because that means that there will be no inheritance, which means only a few people will have the privilege of owning the assets that are the focus of the only meaningful power in our nearly-pure plutocracy in which the owners and executives wield total power over Americans).
At this point, the "Trump" component of the longest bull market has vanished.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(03-17-2020, 07:13 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This chart will be soon be terribly obsolete --- because another bad bear market shows signs of joining the other four:
Obviously, huge losses in retirement savings is not funny. 32.7% off in one month is not quite as severe as the 47% at the 1929 Crash... but it is an ominous start.
Cashing out means that one pays taxes. Transferring the funds to an annuity means getting back a very low real return when interest rates are low. (The government seems to prefer that people do so because that means that there will be no inheritance, which means only a few people will have the privilege of owning the assets that are the focus of the only meaningful power in our nearly-pure plutocracy in which the owners and executives wield total power over Americans).
At this point, the "Trump" component of the longest bull market has vanished.
Do you think this is all related to all the closures and shutting down due to coronavirus fears, or do you feel that it would have happened anyway? Might we be seeing the end of the stock market being worshipped as religion?
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The eleven-year bull market was going to end, and market speculation that got the DJIA to nearly 30K was the last act. The market was already sliding as news of COVID-19 started to appear. AIDS did not have that effect.
Any bull market fosters bad habits such as short-term borrowing for long-term projects, under-reliance upon bonds for financing, inadequate savings, and over-payment to executives while workers get the shaft. Were it not for COVID-19, then something else would have triggered a downturn.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(03-17-2020, 02:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The eleven-year bull market was going to end, and market speculation that got the DJIA to nearly 30K was the last act. The market was already sliding as news of COVID-19 started to appear. AIDS did not have that effect.
Any bull market fosters bad habits such as short-term borrowing for long-term projects, under-reliance upon bonds for financing, inadequate savings, and over-payment to executives while workers get the shaft. Were it not for COVID-19, then something else would have triggered a downturn.
Possibly not this soon. The Republican habit of using voodoo economics, of using debt to stimulate in good times and bad, usually lasts well past the first term in the White House before the economy gets ugly. The virus seems to have caused the crash much sooner.
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(03-17-2020, 06:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (03-17-2020, 02:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The eleven-year bull market was going to end, and market speculation that got the DJIA to nearly 30K was the last act. The market was already sliding as news of COVID-19 started to appear. AIDS did not have that effect.
Any bull market fosters bad habits such as short-term borrowing for long-term projects, under-reliance upon bonds for financing, inadequate savings, and over-payment to executives while workers get the shaft. Were it not for COVID-19, then something else would have triggered a downturn.
Possibly not this soon. The Republican habit of using voodoo economics, of using debt to stimulate in good times and bad, usually lasts well past the first term in the White House before the economy gets ugly. The virus seems to have caused the crash much sooner.
Well, I am reminded that Dubya did a lot of blunders that didn't catch up with his administration until after he was re-elected. Still, the run-up in stock prices until February looks like behavior in 1929 before the Crash. The 2008 crash had speculation in real estate as its core while stock prices had not gone "crazy high". Adjusted for inflation, securities prices had not reached those of before the "Tech crash", and in fact had barely reached the nominal prices of 2000.
The virus can expose fundamental weaknesses in our system. Most obvious is Donald Trump -- but also, under-investment in manufacturing, severe inequality of income, an inadequate level of personal saving, regional distress, excessive leverage in corporate finance, and excessive concentration of economic activity. Severe inequality of income and inadequate savings relate because blue-collar and low-level white-collar workers save if paid well.
We have our work cut out, and the usual Trump solution of making those already filthy-rich even more filthy-rich has gone as far as it can go. It could work with Reagan, but forty years later it is no longer a viable solution. The Skowronek cycle strikes again.
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(06-04-2016, 12:55 AM)Galen Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:43 AM)taramarie Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Galen Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:24 AM)taramarie Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:21 AM)Galen Wrote: [quote pid='2172' dateline='1465016177']
IThat is interesting. Looks like James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg were right but about twenty years early. This seems to be a general theme emerging in the western world these days and it is not unexpected. If they are right then it would not be unexpected to see organizations like the EU to go the way of the League of Nations.
And this has historically happened before? Prior to ww2? What was the cause for it to happen in America back then and is it similar to what is causing it now?
Foreign policy in the United States was far less interventionist prior to the Second World War. The term isolationist, most often used as a pejorative, originates from the thirties and the anti-war protests led by the Lost. In fact America had a foreign policy close to modern Switzerland. Trade with anyone but no entangling alliances with no one which dates from George Washington.
Oh wow now that is interesting. Now that definitely needs to return. Makes me wonder if we had something similar here in my country. Should look that up.
I am inclined to agree with you. I don't remember New Zealand having a particularly aggressive foreign policy but having anything to do with the US is turning into a definite liability for them. The rest of the world seems to be catching on to this and are starting to drop the dollar as a result.
[/quote]
In opposition is the Domino Theory. Somebody has to stand against the autocratic expansionist powers or they will eat you. In many places this was the major lesson learned from World War II.
Both approaches have their merits, Washington's and FDR's. Sharing the burden of a Domino Theory based foreign policy is wise too. Being too ready to escalate into a hot war is a problem. The Domino Theory leading you to defend something just as reprehensible as we did in Vietnam is a problem. Colonial Imperialism disguised as something Domino Theory inspired, such as Bush 43's Iraq war, is a problem.
Life is complicated.
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(03-17-2020, 09:17 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:55 AM)Galen Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:43 AM)taramarie Wrote: (06-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Galen Wrote: And this has historically happened before? Prior to ww2? What was the cause for it to happen in America back then and is it similar to what is causing it now?
Foreign policy in the United States was far less interventionist prior to the Second World War. The term isolationist, most often used as a pejorative, originates from the thirties and the anti-war protests led by the Lost. In fact America had a foreign policy close to modern Switzerland. Trade with anyone but no entangling alliances with no one which dates from George Washington.
Oh wow now that is interesting. Now that definitely needs to return. Makes me wonder if we had something similar here in my country. Should look that up.
I am inclined to agree with you. I don't remember New Zealand having a particularly aggressive foreign policy but having anything to do with the US is turning into a definite liability for them. The rest of the world seems to be catching on to this and are starting to drop the dollar as a result.
In opposition is the Domino Theory. Somebody has to stand against the autocratic expansionist powers or they will eat you. In many places this was the major lesson learned from World War II. [/quote]
Both approaches have their merits, Washington's and FDR's. Sharing the burden of a Domino Theory based foreign policy is wise too. Being too ready to escalate into a hot war is a problem. The Domino Theory leading you to defend something just as reprehensible as we did in Vietnam is a problem. Colonial Imperialism disguised as something Domino Theory inspired, such as Bush 43's Iraq war, is a problem.
Life is complicated.
[/quote]
Aggression by Hitler and Tojo was sudden and unpredictable. Aggression by Stalin was more mixed. The Baltic Republics, Finland, northeastern Romania (in 1940 boundaries), and much of Poland had been territories of the Russian Empire. After WWII he had the tanks and troops in place and found willing collaborators in expanding the Stalinist empire. The domino theory as applied to southeast Asia was simply wrong. It was all the former French Indochina, with the commies able to take over Laos, southern Vietnam, and Cambodia. Thailand never had a strong Communist insurgency.
We may learn the lessons of history only to misinterpret them. $#!+ happens.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Morbid, but...
![[Image: 1c18697457827285ab4cca7e3b0b499c6c3eb75e...pg?w=800&h]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c18697457827285ab4cca7e3b0b499c6c3eb75e3fd95cd428fc010eefb5bda3.jpg?w=800&h)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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It's not all Trump's fault:
![[Image: b82761135efa03f2dce86f6434e4938a]](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/pLnw6jFYiXiTLEOLvxQaqA--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/ibd.com/b82761135efa03f2dce86f6434e4938a)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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![[Image: b8aba9b52023c2467edf04ad2d1380a1e9a89211...=800&h=660]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8aba9b52023c2467edf04ad2d1380a1e9a8921148b4072fe77a13d3b7388e90.jpg?w=800&h=660)
At least I put my life on hold while taking care of some parents at the ends of their lives. I could put up with a recession to save some lives.
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Gray champion he's not. He's the crisis embodied.
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![[Image: 87030a1c79a2308f0e75077bca9b6cd9f1082ecf...=800&h=441]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/87030a1c79a2308f0e75077bca9b6cd9f1082ecffac50a4fb774c54870a8f516.jpg?w=800&h=441)
![[Image: 4f55de0392e8b146601e84ae5838421f051c0c75...=800&h=479]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f55de0392e8b146601e84ae5838421f051c0c759830b0c7c41e4dcf0d8ebf88.jpg?w=800&h=479)
![[Image: 6c6ba9e0b1d963e59dacb33df4e258a918c9116b...=800&h=416]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c6ba9e0b1d963e59dacb33df4e258a918c9116ba3f4f5bdffc8fdcbc857dbf0.jpg?w=800&h=416)
![[Image: 28834a5c55dcc5d24966bacb612600c2fd697638...=800&h=306]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/28834a5c55dcc5d24966bacb612600c2fd6976383fb0b58ddb69738c2a8fa4a3.jpg?w=800&h=306)