Trump hits new low in approval poll

[Eric the Green]

Trump has indeed hit a new low in his recent job approval rating, with a deficit of 12 points, about 54 to 42 according to the latest RCP average. That's not his low for his whole term, though (see post #1). As Malvina Reynolds once sang, or was it Ric Mastin, "there's a bottom below."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html

Here she is!

[Eric the Green]

RCP Average 5/25 - 6/9 -- 42.2 54.9 -12.7
Economist/YouGov 6/7 - 6/9 1241 RV 43 56 -13
Rasmussen Reports 6/7 - 6/9 1500 LV 44 55 -11
Politico/Morning Consult 6/6 - 6/7 1992 RV 39 58 -19
CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 40 57 -17
The Hill/HarrisX 6/1 - 6/4 2827 RV 44 56 -12
NPR/PBS/Marist 6/2 - 6/3 958 RV 42 55 -13
Emerson 6/2 - 6/3 1431 RV 43 50 -7
IBD/TIPP 5/31 - 6/3 964 RV 42 52 -10
Gallup 5/28 - 6/4 1034 A 39 57 -18
Reuters/Ipsos 6/1 - 6/2 964 RV 40 57 -17
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/28 - 6/2 1000 RV 45 53 -8
Monmouth 5/28 - 6/1 742 RV 43 54 -11
CNBC 5/29 - 5/31 1457 LV 44 56 -12
ABC News/Wash Post 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html

[pbrower2a]

Crayons out for Civiqs 50-state polling data (again not to be confused with other polls) for May 2020. Things may have gotten worse for the President since the start of this month.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true



Approval:

60% or higher for Trump  (saturation 9)
55-59  (saturation 7)
51-54 (saturation 5)
exactly 50 (saturation 3)
below 50 but above disapproval 

exact ties white -- but none this time

above 45 but lower than disapproval (saturation 2)
43-45 (saturation 4)
40-42 (saturation 6)
under 40 (saturation 8 )

It's a different scale from which you may be accustomed...

I do not have symmetry.  I use the 43-45 zone as one in which an incumbent  has some chance to win if he begins the electoral season with such support -- with a spirited and competent campaign and no disasters.  40-42? Possible but unlikely. Under 40? It is rare.

46-49 has an above 50% chance of winning, barring calamities. 50%? Overwhelming chance. 51% or higher? High 50's or higher.

[Eric the Green]

Using this map above, if Biden gets all the darkest and next-to-darkest (red) states, including Maine 1, he would still need PA to win.

[Eric the Green]

President Trump Job Approval
Approve42.1
Disapprove55.1

Disapprove +13.0

General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Biden49.8
Trump41.7

Biden +8.1

I guess it depends on how far into Trump Nation the approval number can fall. It's like a separate nation that lives in its own reality, so it takes a while.

[girl21]

Voting cannot fix the US now.
All that can save the USA is a violent revolution.

Trump may or may not be part of the establishment,
but the 1% can easily make Trump dance if the elites want him to.
The ruling powers control the government and the media.

Since everything is illegal, how can you drain the swamp if firing
corrupt officials is against the law?

The Deep State has a black budget and can torture, drug, blackmail,
and threaten a president and his family.

The shadow government can intercept the letters, emails, and
phone calls of the president.

The ruling powers can forge presidential letters that threaten wars against foreign countries.

The Deep State can bribe and threaten workers to disobey presidential orders.

The 1% can find real or fake victims and persuade the victims to sue the president.

The Deep State can find or download child porn onto computers used by the president.

The Deep State could say that the president is a tax cheat.

The media could run stories claiming that the president is mentally ill.

The US is past the point return.

Americans should go Galt, dropout, become mobile,
and go underground today.
Anyone who has a house or a car becomes a target because of property taxes.

Americans should be fanatic about promoting freedom and be obsessed with resisting.

Protest.

Make songs and art about tyranny.

Disobey nanny state laws. Make laws unenforceable.

The elites can't kill us all. There aren't enough
prisons.

The US is no longer a democracy.
Politicians, government officials, the Gestapo,
and soldiers are puppets for the 1% and Americans
should make traitors feel extremely uncomfortable.

Americans shouldn't say that they are waiting for
more proof that the USA is a bankrupt warmongering police state.
All the lines have been crossed.

Thinking that the elites will turn around and
reduce the debt, end the wars, and restore the Bill of Rights is delusional.

The US is going to get much worse.
All that is unknown is when. Will the ruling class be
able to kick the debt can down the road for another 50 years?

[David Horn]

(06-17-2020, 07:50 AM)girl21 Wrote: Voting cannot fix the US now.
All that can save the USA is a violent revolution.

Trump may or may not be part of the establishment,
but the 1% can easily make Trump dance if the elites want him to.
The ruling powers control the government and the media.

Since everything is illegal, how can you drain the swamp if firing
corrupt officials is against the law?

The Deep State has a black budget and can torture, drug, blackmail,
and threaten a president and his family.

The shadow government can intercept the letters, emails, and
phone calls of the president.

The ruling powers can forge presidential letters that threaten wars against foreign countries.

The Deep State can bribe and threaten workers to disobey presidential orders.

The 1% can find real or fake victims and persuade the victims to sue the president.

The Deep State can find or download child porn onto computers used by the president.

The Deep State could say that the president is a tax cheat.

The media could run stories claiming that the president is mentally ill.

The US is past the point return.

Americans should go Galt, dropout, become mobile,
and go underground today.
Anyone who has a house or a car becomes a target because of property taxes.

Americans should be fanatic about promoting freedom and be obsessed with resisting.

Protest.

Make songs and art about tyranny.

Disobey nanny state laws. Make laws unenforceable.

The elites can't kill us all. There aren't enough
prisons.

The US is no longer a democracy.
Politicians, government officials, the Gestapo,
and soldiers are puppets for the 1% and Americans
should make traitors feel extremely uncomfortable.

Americans shouldn't say that they are waiting for
more proof that the USA is a bankrupt warmongering police state.
All the lines have been crossed.

Thinking that the elites will turn around and
reduce the debt, end the wars, and restore the Bill of Rights is delusional.

The US is going to get much worse.
All that is unknown is when. Will the ruling class be
able to kick the debt can down the road for another 50 years?

There may be Boogaloo Girls too.  You seem to be a perfect candidate.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan pollster: Trump’s Bible photo op caused immediate drop in support
Updated Jun 16, 4:35 PM; Posted Jun 16, 4:29 PM




Trump at St. John's Church with bible
President Donald Trump holds a Bible as he visits outside St. John's Church across Lafayette Park from the White House Monday, June 1, 2020, in Washington. Part of the church was set on fire during protests on Sunday night. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)AP


By Malachi Barrett | mbarret1@mlive.com
President Donald Trump’s support among Michigan voters took a sharp dive in polls taken immediately after protesters were forcefully removed so Trump could have his photo taken holding a Bible outside a historic church.

Two surveys of Michigan voters taken by Lansing polling firm EPIC-MRA found a widening gap between Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden after protests against police brutality began outside the White House and across the country. One poll conducted from May 30 to June 3 found Biden leading by 12 percentage points, but the second poll, which started and ended just one day later, recorded a 16-point lead for the former vice president.


EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn attributed the quick drop to public backlash and negative press resulting from Trump’s staged photo on June 1. The two polls collected responses from separate samples of 600 likely Michigan voters and both had a 4% margin of error.

“That is, by the process of elimination, the only reason that you go from a 12-point lead to a 16-point lead,” Porn said. “(Trump) went from 38% of people saying they would definitely vote to re-elect him to only 33% saying that they would definitely vote to re-elect him.”

The two polls showed the percentage of Michigan voters who felt the country is headed in the wrong direction increased from 63% to 70% and the percentage of voters who held a negative view of the president’s job performance also rose from 56% to 61%.


Respondents in West Michigan, an area of the state that largely voted for Trump during his 2016 campaign, also experienced a drop in support. The first poll showed Trump leading 57% to 41%, which narrowed to a 48% to 46% lead for Trump in the second poll.

Porn said the polling indicates Trump’s religious supporters may not have agreed with the treatment of protesters.

Trump was widely criticized, even by some in his own party, after peaceful demonstrators outside the White House were dispersed by law enforcement using chemical irritants, smoke canisters, rubber bullets and other riot control measures.

Demonstrators had gathered between the White House and the St. John’s Episcopal Church to protest the death of George Floyd, a 46-year-old unarmed black man who was killed after a white Minneapolis police officer pinned him to the ground for nearly nine minutes. Attorney General William Barr reportedly ordered law enforcement to clear the protesters before Trump gave a speech in the White House Rose Garden.


The president then traveled across the street to the historic church with a security detail and other members of his administration. Trump posed with a Bible outside the church, which had been damaged in a fire during protests one day earlier but gave no formal remarks.

Neither poll included any questions about Trump’s response to police brutality or the Black Lives Matter movement. Porn said he’s confident that survey respondents were affected by news coverage of the incident, which lasted for several days.

“All of that suggests that saturation coverage of one event had an impact,” Porn said.

Porn said the large difference between Biden and Trump is notable. Trump lagged behind his Democratic opponent during the 2016 election, but Hillary Clinton never led by more than 11 percentage points.

Trump went on to win Michigan in 2016 by 10,704 votes, a narrow 0.3% margin. U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Dearborn, warned Michigan Democrats not to read too much into polls during a virtual event held by Biden’s campaign this week.

“Things can obviously change, and I fully expect the race will tighten up again as we proceed toward the election, but this was such a stark difference,” Porn said.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/20...pport.html

1. Yes... the name is exactly what you think it is.
2. Michigan looks about as safe D as Massachusetts. 
3. This is the vilest stunt that I have ever seen by a President.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-17-2020, 06:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: 1. Yes... the name is exactly what you think it is.
2. Michigan looks about as safe D as Massachusetts. 
3. This is the vilest stunt that I have ever seen by a President.

The photo op reaction ought to be pretty much nation wide. With the expected virus upswing coming, the Trump brand will likely take another hit.

Is there a way Massachusetts can get rated as any safer? After Nixon took 49 states, then Watergate came around, I still remember the bumper sticker. "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts". Looks like we'll have lots of company this time.

[David Horn]

(06-17-2020, 07:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-17-2020, 06:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: 1. Yes... the name is exactly what you think it is.
2. Michigan looks about as safe D as Massachusetts. 
3. This is the vilest stunt that I have ever seen by a President.

The photo op reaction ought to be pretty much nation wide.  With the expected virus upswing coming, the Trump brand will likely take another hit.

Is there a way Massachusetts can get rated as any safer?  After Nixon took 49 states, then Watergate came around, I still remember the bumper sticker.  "Don't blame me.  I'm from Massachusetts".  Looks like we'll have lots of company this time.

I would be ideal for the opposite to occur, but there are just too many crimson red states to have that happen.  Too bad.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-18-2020, 10:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-17-2020, 07:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-17-2020, 06:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: 1. Yes... the name is exactly what you think it is.
2. Michigan looks about as safe D as Massachusetts. 
3. This is the vilest stunt that I have ever seen by a President.

The photo op reaction ought to be pretty much nation wide.  With the expected virus upswing coming, the Trump brand will likely take another hit.

Is there a way Massachusetts can get rated as any safer?  After Nixon took 49 states, then Watergate came around, I still remember the bumper sticker.  "Don't blame me.  I'm from Massachusetts".  Looks like we'll have lots of company this time.

I would be ideal for the opposite to occur, but there are just too many crimson red states to have that happen.  Too bad.

Trump seems to be trying. Maybe he has enough time.

[pbrower2a]

I can't say that Donald Trump has offended all Bible-believing Christians. For me it is the ethical teachings of the Old Testament and the Sermon on the Mount... but that is enough to offend my limited Christianity.

It would have been comically inept except for the violence, and that is scary.

His display of the Bible as a political stunt proves to be sacrilege.

[Eric the Green]

This article about the Lichtman Keys spells out how the Keys have turned. 6 Keys have turned as of late May 2020, according to the NY Daily News. And they forgot the charisma key; that is false for Trump too, so that makes 7. And social unrest continues, making a possible 8th Key turned against the Drump too. Read 'em and weep, Classic Xer!

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-o...story.html

[Isoko]

Personally I am starting to get sceptical if Trump can win it. After that low turnout in Tulsa, honestly I think he could be done for. I think it all depends on two factors:

1) The Silent Majority. Stay with better the devil you know scenario.

2) Biden and his VP choice.

[David Horn]

(06-22-2020, 10:53 AM)Isoko Wrote: Personally I am starting to get sceptical if Trump can win it. After that low turnout in Tulsa, honestly I think he could be done for. I think it all depends on two factors:

1) The Silent Majority. Stay with better the devil you know scenario.

2) Biden and his VP choice.

First, the idea of a Silent Majority was valid in 1970, but it's certainly not today.  So many in that group were disillusioned Democrats, who though their party was for them (i.e. middle class white people).  Those folks are now solid Republicans, and dying-off in droves.  And fwiw, I doubt Biden's VP choice will have all that much impact. This election is all about the Orange One -- love him of hate him.

[shorty]

Americans scream Trump is a patriot
for banning flag-burning, but maybe
restoring the Bill of Rights, paying off the debt,
and ending the wars would be a better way to bring back respect for the US.

[Eric the Green]

Real Clear Politics:

President Trump Job Approval
Approve 41.4
Disapprove 56.3
Disapprove +14.9

General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Biden 49.4
Trump 40.6
Biden +8.8

Fivethirtyeight.com:

Biden 50.5%
Trump 41.6%

270towin consensus predictive map:



July 17: Georgia, Ohio, ME-2 move from Leans Republican to Toss-up

[pbrower2a]

(06-22-2020, 10:53 AM)Isoko Wrote: Personally I am starting to get sceptical if Trump can win it. After that low turnout in Tulsa, honestly I think he could be done for. I think it all depends on two factors:

1) The Silent Majority. Stay with better the devil you know scenario.

2) Biden and his VP choice.

Ordinarily at this stage in a re-election bid it is an election whose chances for the challenger depend more upon the failure of the incumbent than upon the excellence of the challenger. By most reasonable accounts, Mitt Romney was a far better-than-average challenger; he simply faced an above-average President. I can see Romney having trounced Hillary Clinton had he been the Republican nominee for President in 2016. Maybe his wife's MS kept him from running for president in 2016?

Romney is one of those go-by-the-book, tight-ship leaders who just doesn't give an opening to failure. It's pure speculation on my part... but I can't imagine him as the captain of a Ship of Fools. I can't see him having any use for such types as Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, and Michael Cohen around. The people he would have would more likely be conservative versions of Obama's people. We would be talking about a Romney landslide... maybe 400 or more electoral votes against someone who won the Democratic nomination for President for long and faithful service to the Party, something like Walter Mondale in 1984. This is after Romney (in this scenario) had called together the sharpest minds of medical science, public health, Big Business, organized labor, and political figures from both Parties to squelch COVID-19 before it becomes a real menace and causes lasting harm to the American economy. In the meantime, Romney hasn't made a fool of himself with allusions to crotch-grabbing.
        
We now have the catastrophic failure of the incumbent. Trump may have gotten away with an attempt to get a foreign leader to aid in the ruin of one of his potential rivals due to partisan voting in the impeachment process -- and through that alone. Just when you thought him charmed, along comes COVID-19. The medical profession, public health, the scientific community, Big Business, organized labor, and (some) political figures from both Parties did their job well. Donald Trump failed about as catastrophically as he could short of dying of COVID-19. How has he not gotten it?

[downtown3]

Every country is a police state now, but only countries that
disobey the globalists are called dictatorships.

[pbrower2a]

(08-14-2020, 07:23 AM)downtown3 Wrote: Every country is a police state now, but only countries that
disobey the globalists are called dictatorships.

OK... if you take a trip to Wal*Mart to do a little shopping you will notice that video cameras are everywhere, often hidden. Filch something? You will be detected. Cameras will be directed at people's faces to detect tell-tale signs of dishonest behavior (most often shoplifting) in facial expressions. Cameras are above the self-serve checkout counters whereat someone might be tempted to pay for some highly-visible grocery items but hide some items with high price-to-volume rations (let us say beauty products, patent medicines, or certain video items). So buy a jug of milk, some boxes of cereal, and maybe some bread honestly but keep  the latest edition of a series of Game of Thrones in the basket that you eventually take to the car and put the 'liberated' video in your trunk or passenger compartment... then some security guard will be following you. Although most people spend little time in a parking lot unless they have forgotten where they parked their cars, Wal*Mart really has the parking lot covered. Someone looking into parked cars for keys in the ignition? Vandalism? An attempted drug deal? Fighting? Or of course taking pilfered items to one's car? 

Every Wal*Mart is effectively a police state. Then again, I don't want anyone stealing or vandalizing my car, and I don't want to be where drug deals and fights happen. Shoplifters aren't my friends. 

OK, we generally recognize that surveillance is the norm in business to deter or detect illegal behavior by employees or customers. If the government is using my postings on the Web to keep me from getting a job or cause me to lose a job after I disparage Donald Judas Iscariot Trump... then that is inexcusable. Terrorist threats are of course inexcusable, but I would not ask for any undue consequences (such as prison time or harassment on the job, or loss of a professional license or liquor license for this:

 

Yes, it is repugnant, but certainly not criminal.