Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

With the death of the Fourth Turning Forum, and with the community
moving to this forum, these are the Generational Dynamics World View
articles.

When Neil Howe announced that he was killing the Fourth Turning Forum,
he invited everyone to copy any content they like. There are in fact
hundreds of threads that contain valuable discussion, particularly
about history and other countries. As a public service, I've created
a Generational Dynamics Fourth Turning Forum Archive at

http://generationaldynamics.com/tftarchive/

If you're looking for an old thread, you'll find it in the archive
if you're lucky.


John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

---

*** 10-May-16 World View -- Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
  
• Syria: A victim of colonial politics
  
• Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
  
• Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact
  

****
**** Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
****


The 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement split the Mideast between Britain and France (Jewish Virtual Library)

Few American have heard of the Sykes-Picot agreement of May, 1916,
although today it's a matter of widespread interest in the Arab world,
and is considered to be a piece of Western treachery that has caused
untold misery in the Arab world for the last century.

This year is the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot agreement, named
after Frenchman Francois Georges-Picot and Briton Mark Sykes. The
secret agreement was reached on May 9, 1916, and signed a week later
by Britain, France and Tsarist Russia on May 15, 1916. The purpose of
the agreement was to split up the remains of the Arab countries after
the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, which had ruled them for centuries.

During the British fight against the Turkish Ottomans, the British had
obtained the help of Arab armies by promising that after the war there
would be a truly independent Syrian state that included Palestine,
Transjordan, and Lebanon. However, that promise was made in the
knowledge that it would be betrayed, because the secret Sykes-Picot
agreement described how the region would be split between France and
Britain as their respective colonies. The betrayal was exposed when
the secret agreement was revealed, and that occurred after the
Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, when Leon Trotsky published the
details of the deal in November 1917.

The next betrayal was the Balfour Declaration by the British in 1917,
promising the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine.

The borders set by Sykes-Picot/Balfour have remained largely intact,
with few exceptions. There was the independence of Sudan from Egypt,
and then the secession of South Sudan. North and South Yemen were
unified, as were the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There were also
changes to the Palestinian territories and Palestine, related to the
establishment of Israel.

But there are many Arabs, especially Palestinians, who blame
Sykes-Picot/Balfour as the source of all their misery. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has specifically said that
Sykes-Picot is dead, but other nationalist Arab groups are calling for
its abolition, mostly for local political reasons. The Kurds have
been leading the calls for an end to Sykes-Picot, and the creation of
a Kurdistan state.

In the past two decades, and especially since the "Arab Spring" of
2011, the Arab world has been disintegrating, with wars in Syria,
Libya, Iraq and Yemen. Many Arabs blame todays troubles on the
Sykes-Picot agreement that was signed a century ago.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, to suggest that the
Arab world has disintegrated in the war because of an agreement signed
in 1917 is nonsense. The Mideast has been in an almost constant state
of war for centuries, and no Western agreement could have either
caused or prevented further wars. As I've been writing for years, the
entire Mideast is headed for massive sectarian and ethnic wars, and
those wars are coming about because of powerful generational forces
that no politicians can control.

The Gulf News has done a series of articles on the effects of the
Sykes-Picot agreement on different Mideast countries, and those
articles are summarized in the sections below. Globe and Mail (Canada) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Syria: A victim of colonial politics
****

As the Ottomans were leaving Syria in 1920, the French forces landed
on Syria's coast and started marching toward Damascus, with the
specific objective of taking control of France's share of the
Sykes-Picot agreement. The French crushed the Syrian army, imposed
martial rule, and divided Syria into border-free mini-states. Syria's
borders with the British Mandate Palestine, the newly-created State of
Greater Lebanon, and the newly created emirate of Transjordan were all
set by the French.

Syria declared a republic in 1932, and became independent in 1946,
when it was a co-founder of both the Arab League and the United
Nations.

Egyptian President Jamal Abdul Nasser merged Syria and Egypt in 1958
to form the United Arab Republic (UAR). It lasted only 43 months, and
crashed in September 1961. The UAR was an attempt to reshape the
borders defined by Sykes-Picot, however it failed and the original
borders are still standing. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
****

As the Ottoman armies retried, the British, with the help of their
Arab allies, conquered Palestine and all of Greater Syria. The
British administered Palestine directly until they received a mandate
from the League of Nations that ran from 1923 to 1948. At the same
time, the British favored the Zionist agenda of creating a
protectorate and a government based on "some kind of Council to be
established by the Jews."

This was formulated in 1917 by the Balfour Declaration, issued by
British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour that, "His Majesty’s
government view with favor the establishment in Palestine of a
national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavors
to facilitate the achievement of this object." This is considered by
the Arabs to be a double-cross, a betrayal of well-documented British
promises to seek an Arab government of the territories liberated from
the Ottomans.

In the decades that followed, Jewish colonies and Zionist aspirations
advanced steadily, culminated in the 1948 Naqba ("Catastrophe"), the
creation of the State of Israel, and the bloody crisis war that
evicted more than 700,000 Palestinians from their homes. For Arabs,
and especially Palestinians, this is the savage legacy of the
Sykes-Picot agreement and the Balfour Declaration, causing enormous
suffering and misery to the present day. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact
****

Lebanon has existed for thousands of years, home of Christians,
Muslims, Druze, Maronites, and others. Lebanon came out pretty well
in the 1919 Paris Versailles Peace Conference. One reason was
sympathy for Lebanon because during the war, an Ottoman embargo lead
to a famine in which 200,000 died in Mount Lebanon alone. So Lebanon
survived intact, and elected a president in 1926. The French mandate
was terminated with independence in 1943. Gulf News (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sykes-Picot Agreement, Francois Georges-Picot, Mark Sykes,
Turkey, Ottoman Empire, Balfour Declaration, Palestine,
Russia, Leon Trotsky, Bolshevik Revolution, Transjordan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Jamal Abdul Nasser, United Arab Republic, UAR,
League of Nations, Naqba, Israel,
Christians, Muslims, Druze, Maronites

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-May-16 World View -- Azerbaijan and Dagestan celebrate culture as Islamist insurgencies grow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
  
• Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
  
• Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
  

****
**** Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
****


Flame Towers -- skyscrapers in Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan, will host the Days of Culture of
Dagestan on May 12-13. The event will feature a concert of Dagestani
singers, dancers and musicians, and an exhibition of arts and crafts
entitled "Dagestan: History and Modernity". "Lezginka" Academic Dance
Ensemble, "Khasavyurt" State Dance Ensemble and soloists will perform
in the concert. An assortment of business deals will be signed.

The singing and dancing and jolly atmosphere hides a great deal
of tension that both sides would like to ignore.

Dagestan is not an independent country. It's in the North Caucasus,
and is one of Russia's southern provinces, and opposite its southern
border is Azerbaijan. As with all of Russia's Caucasian provinces,
it's populated mostly by Sunni Muslims, many of whom have gone to
Syria to fight against the Shia/Alawite army of Bashar al-Assad, often
joining the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Although a political border separates Dagestan from Azerbaijan, the
ethnic groups that have lived in the region for centuries don't always
follow the political boundaries. AzerTag (Baku) and Azerbaijan News

****
**** Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
****

Azerbaijan's population is about 80% Shia Muslim, 15% Sunni Muslim and
3% Christian. The government is secular. As I wrote in "7-Dec-2015 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
, Azerbaijan is
in the unfortunate situation that it suffers from both a radical Shia
Islamist insurgency, and also a radical Sunni Islamist insurgency.
The latter is occurring mostly in the north, along the border with
Dagestan, where poverty is extensive corruption is widespread, the
government is increasingly oppressive, and the gap between rich and
poor is growing wider every day.

It's estimated that of 1,500 people from Azerbaijan who have gone to
Syria to fight with ISIS are from Sunni groups in the north, on the
border with Dagestan. As in Russia and Central Asia, Azerbaijan
officials are worried that people who have gone to Syria to join ISIS
will return to their homelands to use their newly acquired terrorist
skills. Jamestown and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran state media)

****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
****

Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave of Armenian citizens in the midst of
Azerbaijan. Depending on whose side you're on, NK is either
legitimately Armenian territory or else an illegal occupation of
Azerbaijan territory by Armenian forces.

Armenia and Azerbaijan got along pretty well during the days when they
were both part of the Soviet Union, but they fell into a bloody war
after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. By the time that the war
ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had annexed several
Azerbaijani regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.

Low-level violence has been almost continuous since then, with each
side typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.

However, early in April the low-level conflict spiraled into the worse
violence since 1994, with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters.
( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)

A new cease-fire was agreed a few days later, with a return to
low-level violence, but no one doubts that the region could
explode once more, affecting the entire region.

Russia claims to be neutral between the two sides, but few doubt that
Russia strongly supports Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has a
Turkic population and is closely allied with Turkey. Thus, an
escalation in war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could quickly
escalate into a war between Russia and Turkey.

The Armenian government has recently approved a draft bill recognizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh region's independence and sent it to the
country's parliament. If it becomes law, it might be considered a
casus belli by Azerbaijan. For that reason, it's thought that
the independence motion is for domestic consumption in Armenia, and
there are no plans to push it forward. Moscow Times and Trend (Baku)
and ArmenPress (Yerevan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Baku, Dagestan, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Turkey

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-May-16 World View -- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland
  
• The 'New IRA' recalls the 1916 Easter Rising against British rule
  

****
**** England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland
****


A New IRA parade commemorating the Easter Rising of 1916 (Barcroft)

England, Scotland and Wales were put on high alert on Wednesday
by possibly imminent threats from the "New IRA" (Irish Republican
Army). According to Home Secretary Theresa May:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The Security Service, MI5, has increased the threat
level to Great Britain from Northern Ireland-related terrorism
from moderate to substantial.

This means that a terrorist attack is a strong possibility and
reflects the continuing threat from dissident republican activity.

As a result of this change, we are working closely with the police
and other relevant authorities to ensure appropriate security
measures are in place."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The increase in the perceived risk to Great Britain from Northern
Irish terrorism from "moderate" to "substantial" was caused by a fresh
assessment leading to concerns about the increasing capabilities of
the dissident groups and their growing desire to attack the mainland.
With this rating, a terror attack is considered "a strong
possibility," which is not at the level of "highly likely" if the
threat level had been raised all the way up to "severe." BBC and
Belfast Telegraph (30-Apr) and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** The 'New IRA' recalls the 1916 Easter Rising against British rule
****

On Easter Sunday, March 27 of this year, thousands of soldiers marched
through Dublin to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Easter
Rising, which was an Irish insurgency against the government of the
United Kingdom. That was just one of the many clashes between the
Irish and the English over the centuries.

Northern Ireland terrorism has been out of the news lately, because of
concerns over jihadist terrorism. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, all religious and ethnic groups have the
potential for terrorism at different times. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, there is little significant difference between
terrorism by Catholic drug cartels in Mexico, ethnic terrorism by
Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland, and Islamist terrorism,
with the similarities more significant than the differences. However,
at this point in time, terrorism related to Syria is considered to be
the greatest terror threat.

Violent paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland has resulted in
1,100 bombings and shootings over the past 10 years, along with almost
800 so-called punishment attacks and 4,000 cases of people being
forced out of their homes. There are still thousands of people
associated with paramilitary groups responsible for acts of violence
and intimidation. Last week, police arrested 14 people in Northern
Ireland after the funeral of of Michael 'Mickey' Barr, a "New IRA"
member who was gunned down for being a dissident republican.

The violence in Northern Ireland is usually portrayed as religious in
nature, where Catholics fight against Protestants.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it can be called
an ethnic conflict between indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually
Catholic, republican, nationalist) versus descendants of invading
English and Scottish people (usually Protestant, loyalist, unionist).
As is often the case, religion is not the "cause" of this conflict,
but is a tool used by the factions to rally supporters.

Generally speaking, the objective of the republicans is to unify the
Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland) with Northern Ireland into a
single republic, while the unionists (loyalists) want Northern Ireland
to remain part of the United Kingdom.

As I described in detail in "23-Jun-2011 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
, the English and the Gaelics have been fighting
generational crisis wars regularly since the 1400s. The most
important was the Nine Years War (1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics
attempted to overthrow English rule. The result was the Plantation of
Ulster, which Gaelics today refer to as "ethnic cleansing," because
the British drove the Gaelics from their land, took it over as
landlords, and used the Gaelics as servants.

Those feelings are as strong as ever today among the many of the Irish
republicans. That's why, on Easter of this year, the "New IRA"
warned:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The volunteer soldiers of the IRA are ready and
determined to take the war to the age old enemy of our
nation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

AP and Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London, 29-Mar)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales,
New IRA, Irish Republican Army, MI5, Theresa May,
Easter Rising, Catholics, Protestants, Nine Years War,
Ulster Plantation

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-May-16 World View -- EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides
  
• More refugees now reaching Europe via Italy than via Greece
  
• Italy rescues 800 migrants from Mediterranean Sea, many of them from Syria
  

****
**** EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides
****


Italy's coast guard rescued over 800 migrants from the Mediterranean Sea on one day, Thursday (Reuters)

Both Turkey and the European Union are issuing ultimatums.

Turkey is demanding that the EU honor its agreement to allow all
Turkish citizens to have visa-free travel throughout Europe's Schengen
Zone. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and former prime minister Ahmet
Davutoglu have been said repeatedly, since March 20 when the EU-Turkey
migrant deal was signed, that the EU must fulfill its pledge to permit
visa-free travel by Turkish citizens by June, or else Turkey would
cancel the deal and allow floods of migrants to resume flooding across
the Aegean Sea to Greece.

The EU is demanding that Turkey must bring its anti-terrorism laws
into line with European standards. Turkey's anti-terrorism laws are
so broad that they criminalize almost any kind of political dissent,
and are used to arrest journalists and academics critical of
government policies. They were used as justification for the seizure
of the country's largest newspaper, Today's Zaman, because it
criticized Erdogan's policies. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)

Changing the anti-terrorism laws was one of the terms of the agreement
that the European Union negotiated with Turkey's prime minister Ahmet
Davutoglu. There were 72 conditions that Turkey would have to meet
before the visa-free travel could be implemented. Almost all of them
have been met, but the anti-terrorism change has not. Erdogan was
infuriated that Davutoglu made this concession, and fired him last,
saying that Turkey could not and would not change its terrorism laws
while it is being receiving terror attacks from both the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). ( "7-May-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan threatens EU: 'We'll go our own way, you go yours!'"
)

Turkish officials point out that Turkey is currently hosting the
largest number of Syrian refugees in the world with 2.7 million, and
has spent more than 7 billion euros meeting their needs. Erdogan says
that the EU has a much smaller refugee problem and a much smaller
terrorism problem, and that EU officials are hypocritical for
criticizing Turkey.

With positioning hardening on both sides, people are looking for a
face-saving agreement. Otherwise, the EU-Turkey deal is going to fall
apart. Irish Times and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** More refugees now reaching Europe via Italy than via Greece
****

For the first time since April 2015, more refugees arrived in Italy by
crossing the Mediterranean from Libya than arrived in Greece by
crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey.

The change wsa mostly due to a slowdown of migrants arriving in Greece
since the EU-Turkey migrant deal.

In March, 26,971 people arrived in Greece, while 9,676 arrived in
Italy.

In April, after the deal 3,462 people arrived in Greece, while 9,149
migrants arrived in Italy.

Migrants arriving in Greece come from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Asylum seekers making their way through the Mediterranean are
primarily from Nigeria, Gambia, Somalia and other Sub-Saharan African
nations. EU Observer and Bloomberg

****
**** Italy rescues 800 migrants from Mediterranean Sea, many of them from Syria
****

There are signs in the last few days that a new wave of refugees from
Syria have shifted traveling through Turkey to Greece via the Aegean
Sea to a new route from Libya to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea.

The Italian coast guard says that it rescued more than 800 migrants
off the coast of Sicily in one day alone, Thursday, and that at least
150 of them were Syrian, and 40 were from Iraq.

Authorities had feared that with the closing of the "Balkan Route" for
refugees crossing the Aegean Sea to Greece, people smugglers would
begin redirecting refugees to Libya, to cross to Italy. Typically,
the people smugglers put hundreds of migrants into a single large
rubber dinghy, and give the migrants enough fuel to leave Libyan
waters and a cell phone to use to call the Italian coast guard.

Fearing a flood of migrants crossing Brenner Pass from Italy to
Austria, Austria is building a fence on the common border. ( "28-Apr-16 World View -- Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees"
) Austria's plan
has received widespread condemnation from human rights groups and many
EU officials. Reuters and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Ahmet Davutoglu, Greece, Aegean Sea,
Austria, Brenner Pass, Italy, Libya, Mediterranean Sea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-May-16 World View -- Syria's Aleppo campaign falters after disastrous Iranian loss at Khan Tuman

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
  
• Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
  
• Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
  

****
**** Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
****


A neighborhood of Aleppo Syria, after being targeted by Syrian regime airstrikes (AFP)

Thousands of people on Friday attended the funeral in Beirut, Lebanon,
of Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who
was leading Hezbollah's forces in the war in Syria. The death of
Badreddine is a huge embarrassment to the terrorist group Hezbollah
and to Hezbollah's puppetmasters in Iran. Iranian officials
immediately claimed that Badreddine was killed by a "huge blast" in
Damascus, the capital city of Syria, and that the blast was caused by
an Israeli air strike. However, Iran quickly backed down from that
claim, since after all that claim would be even more embarrassing to
Hezbollah and Iran than the truth.

The truth is that Badreddine was killed a week ago while leading
Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Khan Tuman in Iran's disastrous battle
of Aleppo. It's believed that he was killed in battle, although there
are unconfirmed conspiracy claims that either the Syrian regime or
Israel had something to do with his death.

Hezbollah praised the "Martyr Badreddine": In 1982, he formed jihadist
groups to confront the Zionist entity. After becoming commander in
1992, he prepared many heroic operations against the Israeli
occupation. With the inception of Syrian crisis in 2011, the martyr
was one of the first commanders who confronted the takfiri plot across
Syria, according to Hezbollah.

Badreddine's death brings to an end a long manhunt by Israeli and
Western intelligence services for the guerrilla leader who has managed
to remain in the shadows while taking part in assassinations and
military operations. Independent (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (13-May) and Al Manar (Hezbollah)

****
**** Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
****

All last year, until Russia actively entered the war in Syria, we were
reporting that Syria's army was losing one city after another to the
opponents of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. ( "5-Jun-2015 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment"
)

A major objective of Russia's entry into the war was the recapture of
Aleppo from opposition forces. For the past few months, there
have been massive forces -- combining forces from Syria's regime army,
Hezbollah, and Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) --
focused on the recapture of Aleppo. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)

On May 6, IRGC forces were caught by surprise by an attack on Khan
Tuman, south of Aleppo, by anti-Assad forces, killing and capturing
about two dozen IRGC fighters, at a time when there was supposed to be
a cease-fire in progress. This is the same battle in which
Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine was
killed.

Former commander of the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, retired general Mohsen
Rezaei, was brought out of retirement, possibly to provide guidance to
the IRGC forces in Aleppo. He said:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Some months ago Khan Tuman in south Aleppo was freed,
but a few days ago, takfiris, taking advantage of a cease-fire at
a time neither a plane nor artillery was active, surprise attacked
Syrian forces and Iranian advisers.

[Expressing anger and dismay over the IRGC losses:] Their
martyrdom shall not remain unavenged. We will liberate Aleppo
soon and wipe out the takfiri terrorists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani was also dispatched to the region
to provide moral support.

The loss of several dozen IRGC fighters is not a significant loss
militarily, but it has big symbolic significance. It's the first
major setback for the IRGC forces in Aleppo. Other IRGC forces have
suffered losses in other places in Syria, though not at this level.
The strategic logic of Iran’s mission in Syria will likely drive the
IRGC toward greater escalation in response to this setback. The Guard
will want to avenge this defeat, moreover, and re-establish its
credibility in the fight around Aleppo, which remains a strategically
important prize for the Assad regime. Al-Monitor and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (12-May)

****
**** Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
****

I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable
insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of
view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the
battle to recapture Aleppo, and says that it's being stymied because
of conflicting objectives among the three armies -- Russia, Iran and
Syria.

After the loss of Khan Tuman and the deaths of IRGC fighters, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad demanded that Iran send more forces to
Aleppo to defeat the rebels. Iran refused the request, and just sent
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani to raise the morale of Iranian and
Hezbollah forces, as previously described above.

According to Debka, al-Assad does not want to deploy his own army
forces to Aleppo, because he wants to keep them close by in Damascus
and Latakia to defend his own regime, even if it means losing Aleppo.
This has inevitably infuriated both Iran and Russia, whose troops
wonder why they're fighting someone else's battle. Russia in
particular has no use for al-Assad and would except as a way of
keeping control of Syria.

Russia's forces entered the Syrian war actively last year to save
al-Assad from losing the war. It may be that al-Assad will lose the
war anyway. Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Syria, Aleppo, Khan Tuman, Hezbollah,
Russia, Mohsen Rezaei, Qassem Soleimani

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[radind]

I don’t agree with Forbes that generational theory is just a fad. I appears to me that the theory has good explanatory power, provided that this is not applied to individuals.
I do agree the use of labels( although a convenient shorthand) is generally overdone. Elimination of labels may be impossible, but great restraint in use of labels would be constructive.

Quote:http://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2015/...5d1ef63611

… "We must begin to see generational theory for what it is: an opportunistic fad that exaggerates differences between generations to no real benefit except to the Gen-Experts themselves.
You can begin to make a difference by eliminating labels from your vocabulary and explaining to your colleagues why you’ve chosen to do so.”

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash
  
• Maduro orders jailing of owners of closed factories
  
• Maduro recalls Brazil ambassador over Dilma Rousseff 'coup'
  

****
**** Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash
****


An injured man lies next to national guard members during a demonstration in Caracas, Venezuela on Wednesday (AFP)

Pity the poor Venezuelan citizen who enjoyed years of free Socialist
giveaways under president Hugo Chávez and more recently president
Nicolás Maduro, and now has to pay for it all, as Chávez's Socialist
paradise faces financial disaster.

The inflation rate in 2015 was 275%, the highest in the world,
and it's continued to surge. The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) estimates that it will reach 720% in 2016, and over 2200%
in 2017.

Maduro's government is drenched in corruption, with officials not
giving a s--t about anyone but themselves. Common staples are in
scarce supply, and citizens have to stand in line to get milk, rice,
flour, ketchup, diapers, and toilet paper. Crime and violence are
becoming rampant. And the fall into hell has been rapid -- 75% of
Venezuelan homes now live in poverty, compared to 27% just two years
ago.

New indignities keep getting piled on, one after the other:

• Beer has become unavailable because the country's largest
  brewery shut down for lack of malted barley.
  
  
• Get this: Despite the highest inflation rate in the world,
  Venezuela can't print any more money because they can't
  pay the printing bill. Oh, the irony.
  
  
• In order to save power, Maduro ordered that all clocks be
  moved ahead one-half hour.
  
  
• Also to save energy, Maduro ordered that state employees
  work only two days per week.

Oh, wait. Maduro has found a solution. He's ordered a 30% increase
in the minimum wage. Increasing the minimum wage 30% is sure to cause
even greater super-inflation and even deeper shortages, but logic
never stops a Socialist loon.

Maduro's opposition have collected two million signatures on a
petition to force a recall vote that would remove Maduro from power,
but Maduro has control of the courts and all national agencies. One
of those agencies that Maduro controls is the National Electoral Board
(CNE) which supposed to have certified the signatures a week ago, but
under Maduro's orders they're stalling.

Opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles
said on Saturday that if Maduro blocks the recall referendum, then the
country "can explode at any given moment."

Maduro has announced that's calling out the army for military drills
starting on Saturday, to protect the country from "foreign
aggression," meaning the United States. Since the United States has
no plans to invade Venezuela, it's more likely that Maduro will use
the military to attack protestors violently, which is what Socialists
always do to stay in power. Miami Herald and Reuters (11-Apr) and VOA (2-May) and Bloomberg (27-Apr) and VOA (1-May)

****
**** Maduro orders jailing of owners of closed factories
****

As we mentioned above, the country's largest producer of beer has
closed down the last of its four domestic breweries, for lack of the
imported malted barley needed as the principal ingredient. Cerveceria
Polar, the manufacturer, is blaming the problem on Venezuela's
government for not giving the company the dollars it needs to import
supplies.

Venezuelan citizens are only allowed to have inflation-bloated and
increasing worthless currency, the Bolivar. Dollars are tightly
controlled by the government, and have been in particularly short
supply since the price of oil crashed over the last two years.
Cerveceria Polar and other manufacturing firms have been forced to
close their doors because they could import the goods they needed.

Like all good Socialists, president Maduro has a ready solution.

On Friday, Maduro declared a full-scale state of emergency. If a
factory has closed because they were unable to import what they need
to make their products, then Maduro will have the factory seized and
the factory owner jailed.

According to Maduro, the country is facing an "economic war," led by
the United States. BBC and
Fox News and USA Today (8-May)

****
**** Maduro recalls Brazil ambassador over Dilma Rousseff 'coup'
****

Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro recalled his ambassador to
Brazil, Alberto Castelar, following a vote by Brazil's parliament to
suspend president Dilma Rousseff from office and subject her to an
impeachment trial on charges of corruption. The debate in Brazil that
preceded the vote lasted for days, and resulted in wild protests and
fury from both opponents and supporters of Rousseff. Rousseff claims
that the corruption charges are bogus, and many people agree, saying
that Rousseff's real problem is that her left-wing policies have
brought the country to near ruin, though not yet as bad off as
Venezuela.

Maduro claims that the impeachment vote was actually a palace coup
against a democratically elected left-wing government. With Maduro
himself facing a recall petition in Venezuela, he has become an ally
of Rousseff.

There have been a string of coups and attempted coups against mostly
left-wing Latin American leaders in the last decade.

In 2004, there was a coup against Haiti's president Jean-Bertrand
Aristide; in 2008, widespread violence left dozens dead as opposition
groups sought to oust President Evo Morales; in the early hours of
June 28, 2009, the Honduran military kidnapped President Manuel Zelaya
and flew him to Costa Rica; on September 30, 2010, the police and
military kidnapped Ecuador's president Rafael Correa, who eventually
escaped; in June 2012, Peru's left-wing president Fernando Lugo was
impeached and removed from office.

Rousseff is just the latest in this string of "coups." Next in line
is Maduro, unless he completely destroys the democratic process by
ordering the army to use violence against his political enemies.
Reuters and TeleSur TV (Caracas)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez,
Cerveceria Polar, Alberto Castelar, Brazil, Dilma Rousseff

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-May-16 World View -- China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations
  
• Pentagon documents massive China buildup, but omits 'Maritime Militia'
  

****
**** China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations
****


Chinese vessel in South China Sea (Reuters)

China on Friday accused the Pentagon of "sensationalizing" China's
military buildup in the South China Sea, claiming that China has "the
legitimate right to deploy military facilities on its own islands in
the South China Sea." The problem with this claim is that China is
using its vast military power to annex regions of the South China Sea
that have historically belonged to other countries, including Vietnam
and the Philippines.

China always says that its claims "are indisputable," and this much at
least is a total lie since the claims are very much in dispute, and
are currently being adjudicated by a United Nations international
court in the Hague, which is expected to rule on counterclaims by the
Philippines very soon, possibly by the end of May.

Friday's Pentagon report documents a massive buildup in the size,
sophistication and power of China's military, including the the South
China Sea. The Chinese response is essentially to call the Americans
war-mongers, for documenting China's military buildup, and for freedom
of navigation patrols in the South China Sea.

Statements by Chinese officials include the following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"There’s no difference between China’s deployment of
defense facilities on its own territory and the defense
installation by the US in Hawaii. ...

We don’t hope to see militarized close-in reconnaissance by the US
military. Nor do we want to see more missile destroyers or
strategic fighters coming to this region. This is what all sides
need to take for a responsible behavior on demilitarization. ...

The US has increasingly dispatched military vessels and aircraft
to the adjacent waters and airspace of China’s islands in the
South China Sea. It has engaged in highly targeted military
exercises and joint patrols. The US is turning a blind eye to its
own militarization and has made irresponsible accusations about
China. This is a typical double standard. ...

Recent actions by the US have severely damaged mutual trust
between the two sides, and violates the consensus reached by two
sides. We urge the US to take concrete measures to remove
obstacles for healthy development."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

These freedom of navigation patrols are infuriating the Chinese. In
China's Alice in Wonderland world, freedom of navigation patrols are
the biggest military actions, not building several massive military
bases in the South China Sea on top of artificial islands. Dept. of Defense - China military report and China TV and Defense News

****
**** Pentagon documents massive China buildup, but omits 'Maritime Militia'
****

Friday's Pentagon report documents a massive buildup in the size,
sophistication and power of China's military, in a way that indicates
that the situation has changed in a significant way. In the past,
Americans have soothed themselves by saying that despite China's
buildup, and their obvious preparations for a first strike military
attack on the United States, America's military is still capable of
fending off a pre-emptive Chinese attack.

However, the tone of the report suggests that China's military buildup
is just about at a tipping point, where it could overwhelm American
defense forces. This had to happen sometime, as America's military
has been cutting back and China's has been building up. At some
point, China's military had to surpass America's and the tone of the
report suggests that that time is now or very soon.

Here are some highlights:

• In the South China Sea, China added more than 3,200 acres in
  artificial islands, used for military bases. China's Cost Guard has
  acquired more than 100 new, improved long-range ocean-going patrol
  ships, many capable of embarking helicopters.
  
  
• China's navy has been on a building binge, with quality improving
  even faster than quantity. China's navy "now possesses the largest
  number of vessels in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships,
  submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft, [many of them] larger,
  multi-mission ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and
  anti-submarine weapons and sensors. Submarine force modernization
  remains a leading priority."
  
  
• China's air force "is the largest air force in Asia and the third
  largest in the world, with more than 2,800 total aircraft (not
  including UAVs) and 2,100 combat aircraft (including fighters,
  bombers, fighter-attack and attack aircraft)," rapidly closing the gap
  vis-à-vis Western counterparts "across a broad spectrum of
  capabilities from aircraft and command-and-control (C2) to jammers,
  electronic warfare (EW), and datalinks."
  
  
• China's PLA Rocket Force has an extensive inventory of
  sub-strategic nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles—notably
  including 75-100 ICBMs, and is "developing and testing several new
  classes and variants of offensive missiles, including a hypersonic
  glide vehicle."
  
  
• In space, China launched 19 rockets bearing 45 spacecraft in 2015
  alone. Chinese counter-space capabilities under development include
  directed energy weapons, satellite jammers, and kinetic kill
  vehicles.

However, the Pentagon reports omits discussion of a major portion of
China's naval military capabilities: The "Maritime Militia." This is
a secret force of fishing vessels that patrol the South China Sea and
act as a guerrilla force under civilian cover, occupying and helping
to build disputed islands. National Interest and Reuters and Australian Broadcasting and International Business Times (Singapore)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Pentagon, South China Sea,
Vietnam, Philippines, Maritime Militia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-May-16 World View -- Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
  
• ISIS continues to grow in Libya in size and effectiveness
  

****
**** Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
****


ISIS in Libya

The headline on this article seems a bit perverse, doesn't it. How is
lifting the arms embargo on Libya going to fight ISIS? A lot of
people are wondering exactly that.

On Monday, officials from 25 countries in Europe and the Middle East
met in Vienna, in a meeting jointly chaired by the U.S. and Italy, to
discuss what to do about the rapid growth of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya. The decision was to
supply arms to Libya's "unity government," the Government of National
Accord (GNA), which is backed by the United Nations.

Despite the continuing growth of the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya, and the danger that this represents
not only to northern Africa but also to Europe, Western powers are
unable to agree on a form of military action that will destroy ISIS or
even stop its growth. As we reported in January, Western countries
felt that it was urgent to mount a military action in Libya by the
beginning of March. ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
)

However Italy, Libya's former colonial power, has always insisted that
Libya's government had to approve any Western military action before
it could occur. That's been a continuing problem, since there are two
major governments in Libya, one in Tripoli in charge of western Libya
and one in Tobruk in charge of eastern Libya. There are also nearly
2,000 militias running different parts of Libya.

The United Nations approved Government of National Accord (GNA) has
received some level of approval from the government in Tripoli, but
little from the government in Tobruk. The GNA controls only a
fraction of Libya, and only a fraction of the militias.

The result is that Italy has decided that it's too early to send in
troops. Italy's defense minister Roberta Pinotti says, "The first
step to stabilize Libya is having a government that can represent the
different parts, and can thus take the necessary step to make a
request to the international community."

Reports in March seemed to suggest that Italy might send up to 5,000
troops. By late April, that number was said to be closer to 900. But
now, Italy will not even contribute troops to a peacekeeping force,
and reports indicate that the U.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSML)
would instead be bolstered by Nepalese troops instead.

Monday's decision to lift the arms embargo in Libya has been derided
by some analysts as "kicking the can down the road." First, Libya is
already awash in weapons that were left behind in weapons stores
previously owned by Muammar Gaddafi before he was overthrown. Second,
the government in Tobruk has been receiving weapons allies, and so has
gotten around the embargo. Third, lifting the arms embargo may end up
benefitting ISIS, by making it easier for them to import arms.

The bottom line is that Western nations can only watch as ISIS becomes
larger and more powerful in Libya. Western leaders and Western
publics have little appetite for any military intervention in Libya,
and so it will probably take some major crisis event to change things.
BBC and
Washington Post and Guardian (London) and Washington Post

****
**** ISIS continues to grow in Libya in size and effectiveness
****

The ISIS stronghold in Libya is in Sirte, from which it controls a
strip of more than 250 km (155 miles) of Libya’s central coastline,
from which it has launched attacks to the east, west and south. ISIS
forces last week launched a surprise attack on local militias,
enabling it to capture several towns southwest of Sirte, increasing
the area it controls.

There are signs of increased cooperation between Boko Haram in Nigeria
and ISIS in Libya. Both Boko Haram and ISIS have become increasingly
effective with time, and analysts are now concerned that the ties
between the two terrorist organizations could herald a push south into
the vast, lawless Sahel region and create a springboard for wider
attacks.

ISIS has also been stepping up attacks on neighboring Tunisia from its
strongholds in Libya, where it has set up training camps. In March,
ISIS launched a major assault on the town of Ben Guerdane in Tunisia,
on the border with Libya. More than 4,000 Tunisians are thought to
have left to fight for ISIS and other militant groups in Iraq and
Syria. Some are returning to join ISIS in Libya, threatening more
attacks on Tunisia.

Last week, the United States said it would give jeeps, communications
technology and small aircraft to Tunisia to help protect the border
with Libya. The US is already striking training camps in Libya to
protect Tunisia. ( "20-Feb-16 World View -- US warplanes strike suspected ISIS training base in Libya"
)

Concerns are also growing because of the EU-Turkey migrant deal, which
has reduced the flow of migrants from Turkey into Greece. The flow of
migrants from Syria and Iraq has been irrepressible, and reports
indicate that human traffickers are planning to use different routes.
It's possible that there may be hundreds of thousands of migrants
crossing from Libya to Europe this summer. Many of the human
traffickers in Libya are part of ISIS, and the surge in migrants will
pour a lot of money into ISIS coffers. Telegraph (London) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Reuters and Business Insider


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Sirte, Tripoli, Tobruk, Italy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Roberta Pinotti,
U.N. Support Mission in Libya, UNSML, Nepal, Muammar Gaddafi,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Tunisia, Ben Guerdane, Turkey

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-May-16 World View -- Venezuela's Maduro accuses US of planning an imminent invasion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's Maduro accuses US of planning an imminent invasion
  
• Syria peace talks in Vienna collapse in farce - again
  

****
**** Venezuela's Maduro accuses US of planning an imminent invasion
****


Nicolás Maduro on Tuesday (AP)

Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro on Tuesday renewed his accusation
that the collapse of the country's economy is being caused by United
States sabotage. ( "15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners"
)

And he accused the United States of planning an imminent invasions
because, he claimed, two American military surveillance planes had
illegally entered Venezuelan airspace last week.

According to Maduro on Tuesday:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Our military aviation detected the illegal entry, for
unusual espionage tasks, of the Boeing 707 E-3 Sentry, which is an
airborne early warning control center system that has all the
mechanisms for espionage. ...

Washington conducts these tasks to support communications of armed
groups in war zones or to prepare actions to disable electronic
equipment of the government, the armed forces or the
economy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Maduro has decreed a state of emergency, giving himself additional
powers that will permit the use of violence and arrests against
opposition protests.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles told his followers to ignore the
decree, said that the army has to make a choice:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We, Venezuelans, will not accept this decree. This is
Maduro putting himself above the constitution. To impose this,
he'd better start preparing to deploy the war tanks and military
jets.

And I tell the armed forces: The hour of truth is coming, to
decide whether you are with the constitution or with
Maduro."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Capriles called on its supporters to take to the streets again
Wednesday. BBC and
TeleSurTV (Caracas) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Syria peace talks in Vienna collapse in farce - again
****

Every month, the Syria peace talks start up, then collapse a few days
later. Then they would be restarted, and the cycle repeats. I've
reported on several rounds of this just in the last few months.

So it's not surprising that the latest round of peace talks has
collapsed, but this time the impasse is a lot worse since they didn't
even bother to schedule a new date for the peace talks to restart, as
they've always done in the past.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said that Syria
might return to full scale war unless the peace talks could resume,
and added some political bromides:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We need to bear in mind that credible intra-Syrian
talks will become credible when [...] there is a credible
development on the cessation of hostilities and a credible
improvement on the humanitarian side."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In other words, there couldn't be any peace talks between the Syrian
regime and the opposition as long as they were still shooting at each
other.

US Secretary of State John Kerry as usual made a statement that
sounded like an SNL skit:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The challenge that we face now is to transform these
possibilities into the reality of an agreement at some point. And
because of the gains that we've made in recent months, yet because
of their fragility, and we acknowledge they're fragile, and
increasingly threatened by irresponsible and dangerous actions
taken by those who would rather have this effort fail, who want to
create problems, cause rather than solutions, they see a different
outcome, and there are frankly actors on both side."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Kerry referred to "those who would rather have this effort fail," and
that includes pretty much everyone, though for different reasons:

• Syria's president Bashar al-Assad started this war in 2011 by
  starting to exterminate peaceful demonstrators, including women and
  children. If there were some kind of cease-fire agreement, he would
  violate it as soon as another peaceful demonstration started.
  Al-Assad has been carrying out an extermination campaign on Syrian
  Sunni civilians, and he's going to continue until either they're all
  dead or he's dead.
  
  
• The Syrian opposition won't agree to a cease-fire if al-Assad is
  going to keep dropping barrel bombs on their women and children, which
  he is certainly going to do.
  
  
• The jihadist groups, so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
  or Daesh) and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).
  In fact, the peace plans have actually worsened the hostilities, are
  not going to agree to any cease-fire until al-Assad is overthrown, and
  a caliphate can be declared. ISIS and al-Nusra are specifically
  excluded from the "peace talks." This fact alone makes them a
  farce.
  
  
• Russia and Iran don't care how many innocent women and children
  al-Assad slaughters, if they can control Syria. In fact, the leaders
  of these countries are as guilty of war crimes and crimes against
  humanity as al-Assad, since they supplying the weapons and troops to
  allow him to continue is war crimes.

So it's not surprising that the International Syria Support Group
(ISSG), which was meeting in Vienna and which comprises the United
States, Russia, the UN, the Arab League, the European Union, and 16
countries, announced on Tuesday that they had, once again, failed to
reach any agreement to bring peace to Syria. The whole thing is an
international farce.

People always criticize me when I call al-Assad a genocidal monster,
but he's clearly comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and Stalin
from the last century. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor
any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his
psychopathy.

Al-Assad is the lynchpin and the engine behind the Syrian war. It
would never have started without him, and would have ended quickly if
he had let it, or if he hadn't been supported by Russia and Iran.
Thanks to his policy of exterminating Sunni civilians, tens of
thousands of young jihadists have come from around the world to Syria
to fight him. This has resulted in the creation of ISIS, and it's
resulted in millions of refugees flooding neighboring countries,
including countries in Europe.

I've written thousands of Generational Dynamics analyses since 2003,
which is the year that the current generational Crisis era began, and
although the types of behavior we're seeing were all predictable and
were all predicted, it's incredible to see them being played out on
the world stage. The world is changing rapidly, as we're seeing
people, especially young people, support Socialism, racism, and
xenophobia in country after country exactly like the 1930s. These
young people have no knowledge of history and the massive disasters
caused by the Socialism or racism or the Holocaust, and are not even
fazed as we see Socialist Venezuela collapse right before our very
eyes.

In 2013, when Hugo Chávez died, Hollywood liberals Sean Penn, Michael
Moore and Oliver Stone were effusive in their praise,
but we haven't been hearing from them lately. Also, Britain's
new ultra-left Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn tweeted:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Thanks Hugo Chavez for showing that the poor matter
and wealth can be shared. He made massive contributions to
Venezuela & a very wide world"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The pathological stupidity of these people is amazing.

Meanwhile, the incredible geopolitical destruction being perpetrated
by Bashar al-Assad is not only tolerated, but is praised by Russia,
Iran and other acolytes. As I've said before, what's happening today
is beyond belief to me, as if I'm watching a bad movie but I can't
leave the movie theatre. But it's increasingly obvious to me what
caused World War II, and that exactly the same things are happening
today. United Nations and AFP and Washington Times and Twitter


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez, Henrique Capriles,
Syria, International Syria Support Group, ISSG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Staffan de Mistura,
Bashar al-Assad, Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong, Josef Stalin,
Sean Penn, Michael Moore, Oliver Stone, Jeremy Corbyn

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[Cynic Hero '86]

JohnX, one problem with generational dynamics is that assumes the current policies remain in place through the onset of the crisis climax. Trump would not keep the current policies. Relations with both Russia and China would improve if trump becomes president. Both Russian and Chinese geopolitical/military think tanks assume this if Trump is elected. Also Trump has promised both to massively strengthen the US military and move the US away from a foreward geopolitical position, thus eliminating any tensions that could be used as a pretext for war as well as making an attack from either Russia or China against the US too prohibitive. These policies would strengthen Americas Geopolitical and Security position.

Russian Think Tanks:

http://katehon.com/article/donald-trump-realist

Chinese article on trump:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/976299.shtml

Anti-trump, Pro-Hillary articles on foreignpolicy.com and elsewhere:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/12/a-vo...for-china/

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/28/fear...-the-deal/

And Last But not least, Doomsday prophecy on Hillary Clinton (I believe this article was actually read by many millennials and contributed to her loss in 2008, this is not the first time the author posted this prophecy, The author appears to be PRO-Hillary though):

http://www.newprophecy.net/2016part3.htm#The Last U.S. President: A Female Candidate Is Elected

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-May-16 World View -- Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'
  
• Hong Kong's history and culture make it very different from China
  

****
**** Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'
****


Pro-democracy protests greet Zhang Dejiang in Hong Kong on Wednesday (CNN)

China's state leader Zhang Dejiang, making a three-day "inspection
visit" to Hong Kong, criticized Hong Kong who protest against Beijing
policies. Nominally, the purpose of the speech was to describe Hong
Kong's role in Beijing’s "One Belt, One Road" trade initiative. But
there was also an iron hand. Zhang, a member of China’s all-powerful
Politburo Standing Committee, made clear in his speech that calls for
independence of Hong Kong from China would not be tolerated.

Hong Kong residents were promised fully free and fair elections when
Britain returned the British colony over to China in 1997. China has
consistently stalled on the promise, triggering the large protests in
mid-2014 that shut down the business district for weeks. These
protests were mostly peaceful, but there were some clashes with
police. The protests were called the "Umbrella Revolution," after
protesters brought umbrellas to protect themselves from police
teargas.

The particular trigger for the 2014 protests was a demand by China
that the "free" elections in Hong Kong in 2017 would be tightly
controlled by Beijing. The elections would be "free," but the only
candidates who will be permitted to be run have to be approved a
"nominating committee" completely controlled by Beijing. China's
hand-picked Hong Kong leader, Leung Chun-ying, announced that there
was no chance whatsoever that Beijing would yield on this. ( "22-Oct-14 World View -- Hong Kong leader suggests that the poor shouldn't be allowed to vote"
)

Now, almost two years later, China's state leader Zhang Dejiang is
making an "inspection visit" to make sure that everyone understands
that Beijing has not softened its position:

[indent]<QUOTE>"'One country, two systems' has ... won wide
recognition in the international community. This did not come
easily, and deserves pride and protection.

It should be respected that Hong Kong compatriots treasure their
lifestyle and values – in fact, the substance of the One Country,
Two Systems principle was to preserve Hong Kong’s original
socioeconomic system and lifestyle.

Now an extreme small minority have rejected the country, rejected
the Central Government, and even put forward for Hong Kong
independence – this is not an issue of localism, but an issue of
using the name of localism to separate the country. Is that
violating the original intention of One Country, Two Systems? Is
this good or bad for Hong Kong? I believe Hong Kong people have
their answers in mind."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Zhang added that he would like to listen opinions and suggestions from
people from all walks of life. Hong Kong Free Press and South China Morning Post and Xinhua

****
**** Hong Kong's history and culture make it very different from China
****

The heart of Hong Kong resembled an armed camp yesterday as thousands
of police officers were deployed around the convention center where
Zhang was speaking. At the convention center, barricades filled with
water were set up to keep protesters at least 100 feet away.
Construction sites were halted, trash bins were removed and paving
stones were glued together, to keep them from being tossed at police
during a riot in February of this year.

Culturally, Hong Kong is closer to the West than it is to China. Hong
Kong was governed by Britain from 1857 until it was handed over to
China in 1977. Throughout this 120 year period, Hong Kong served as a
refuge, an escape from mainland China.

Hong Kong served as a refuge for exiles from China following the
establishment of the Chinese Republic in 1912. After Japan seized
Manchuria in 1932 and the Sino-Japanese war broke out in 1938, China
turned to Britain, with Hong Kong as an intermediary, for help and
supplies. As Japan advanced into China in World War II, hundreds of
thousands of Chinese took refuge in Hong Kong.

China had a massive, bloody civil war starting in 1934, which was
interrupted by World War II and resumed afterwards. Mao Zedong's
Communist Revolution didn't end until 1949, but then the defeated
"Nationalist" forces under Chiang Kai-shek fled to Hong Kong, and from
there to Formosa, which became part of Taiwan.

So Hong Kong and Taiwan have cultural and historical links with each
other. Anti-Beijing protests and riots in one are likely to spur
anti-Beijing protests and riots in the other.

A sign of the cultural contrasts is the differences in language. On
mainland China, the official language is Mandarin Chinese. The
language of the people of Hong Kong is Cantonese, which is the
language of the indigenous Cantonese people in Hong Kong and eastern
parts of the mainland. The languages of Taiwan, including Min Nan and
Hakka, are also indigenous languages.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is headed not
only for internal wars with Hong Kong and Taiwan, but also external
wars with the United States and other countries.

As I've been writing since 2005 ("China approaches Civil War"), China is headed for a new
civil war, refighting many of the previous local rebellions, including
the huge White Lotus rebellion in the 1790s and 1800s decade, the
Taiping Rebellion in the 1850s and 60s that killed 15% of the
population, and Mao's Long March that launched the civil war between
Mao and Chiang Kai-shek in the 1930s and 40s killed tens of millions.

At the same time, China is headed for war with its ancient external
enemies, Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, as well as the United
States. These two wars -- the civil wars and the external wars --
will occur simultaneously, as happened in World War II. In fact, the
Chinese Communist Party, which is the most paranoid organization in
the world, will blame any internal unrest on outside agitators, and
may use that as an excuse to launch an external war, in the hope of
unifying the country, and attempting to insure its own survival at all
costs. Quartz and Today Online (Singapore) and Bloomberg and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, China, Zhang Dejiang,
Leung Chun-ying, Formosa, Taiwan, Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek,
Mandarin, Cantonese, Min Nan, Hakka

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

(05-18-2016, 09:45 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > JohnX, one problem with generational dynamics is that assumes the
> current policies remain in place through the onset of the crisis
> climax. Trump would not keep the current policies. Relations with
> both Russia and China would improve if trump becomes
> president.

You're completely missing the point of generational dynamics theory.
Politicians don't determine policies. Generations do. Even in a
dictatorship, politicians have no effect on major policy decisions,
except insofar as they follow the demands of their constituents.

Trump has said as much many times. Trump is appealing to a highly
nationalistic, racist, xenophobic audience, mostly Millennial. He's
said repeatedly some variation of the following: "My wife has told me
to act more presidential. If I did that, then there would be only ten
people in this audience instead of 2000. So I'm not going to become
presidential until I have to." The clear implication is that Trump is
like any other politician, totally contemptuous of his supporters by
just telling them what they want to hear.

Trump has no idea what's going on in the world, as was completely
apparent when he gave that foreign policy speech a couple of weeks
ago, punctuated by that ridiculous pronunciation of "Tanzania." He
has no core beliefs that I can discern, except that he believes that
he can always get his way by insulting and threatening people,
something that's always worked for him because of his billions, but
will backfire in the foreign policy area. So you're right, Trump will
change his policies constantly, since he has no idea what his policies
are.

Clinton knows what's going on in the world and knows how to pronounce
Tanzania, since she spent eight years in the White House with her
rapist husband. But she's obediently followed Obama's policies, which
have ended in one disaster after another. Obama has no clue what's
going on in the world, so she probably knows more, but she has no core
beliefs that I can discern except that the solution to all the world's
problems is for women to have free contraceptives. If she wins, then
she'll probably just let her husband make most of the decisions, which
is laughable give all the feminist crap we always have to listen to.
Like Trump, Clinton will change her policies all the time, since she
has no idea what her policies are.

Sanders is the looniest of all, with his Socialist revolution.
Sanders and his acolytes are too dumb to learn anything from watching
Venezuela collapse right before their eyes, or to learn any historical
lessons from the massive bloodbaths caused by Socialism in the Soviet
Union, Maoist China, Pol Pot's Cambodia, eastern Europe, and so forth.
Sanders does have core beliefs, the same core beliefs that Sean Penn,
Michael Moore, Oliver Stone and Jeremy Corbyn have: That's it's ok to
let tens of millions of people be executed, starved or killed in order
to create a Socialist paradise. Sanders won't change his policies
since he's a total loon -- but he has no chance of winning.

So now getting back to the main theoretical point, Trump himself may
or may not be nationalistic, racist and xenophobic, but he's making
nationalistic, racist and xenophobic speeches because that's what his
core audience want. He's no different from any other politician in
that he'll tell people what they want to hear if they'll vote for him
and give him money. But it's the people who decide the policies, not
the politicians.

So it's completely untrue that Generational Dynamics "assumes the
current policies remain in place through the onset of the crisis
climax." Generational Dynamics applies MIT's System Dynamics to the
flow of generations to determine trends that must occur, and therefore
can be predicted, and uses Chaos Theory to determine which policies
can change at any time, and so cannot be predicted.

It's never been true that Generational Dynamics assumes that no
policies will change. Rather, Generational Dynamics discerns between
policies that CAN'T change, versus policies that can.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-May-16 World View -- Netanyahu's selection of Avigdor Lieberman criticized in and out of Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Netanyahu's selection of Avigdor Lieberman criticized in and out of Israel
  
• Lieberman's lack of experience compared to Amir Peretz
  

****
**** Netanyahu's selection of Avigdor Lieberman criticized in and out of Israel
****


Avigdor Lieberman (L) and Benjamin Netanyanu (Reuters)

Press reports from Israel and around the world are almost unanimous in
condemning the choice by Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyanu
for the new Defense Minister to be minister Avigdor Lieberman, head of
the Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel is our home") political party, forming
what liberals are calling 'most right-wing government in history

Yisrael Beiteinu holds five or six seats of the 120 in the Knesset
(Israel's parliament). Netanyahu has been governing with a razor-thin
majority of 61 seats, and joining with Yisrael Beiteinu gives him at
least 66 seats.

Lieberman is usually described as "a hard right racist," because of
his anti-Arab rhetoric. He questions Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas’s commitment to peace, and he also questions the loyalty
of Arab citizens of Israel, and has proposed deporting Arabs who
cannot pass a loyalty test. He also led a recent parliamentary drive
to exclude Arab parties from running for election, a move that was
overturned by Israel’s supreme court.

A Palestinian Authority (PA) statement said that the appointment of
Lieberman means that the PA no longer has a partner in the peace
process. "The appointment of Lieberman to serve as a minister in
Netanyahu's government is an answer to the regional, international and
French efforts to reinvigorate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the selection of a
far-right defense minister is part of a movement to the right in
countries around the world, with increased nationalism and xenophobia,
as I've been writing about for years. This is what happens during a
generational Crisis era. It's what happened in the 1930s, and it's
what happening today. Ynet (Israel) and Forward (Israel) and AFP

****
**** Lieberman's lack of experience compared to Amir Peretz
****


Israel's Defense Minister Amir Peretz (right) in 2007 looking through binoculars with the lens cap on. On the left is the army's new Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi. They're reviewing a military drill in the Golan Heights.

Avigdor Lieberman has had no military experience, and so he's
being compared to Israel's previous Defense Minister who
had no previous military experience -- Amir Peretz.

In 2007, I and others mocked Peretz mercilessly because he was
photographed, while reviewing a military drill in the Golan Heights,
by looking through binoculars without removing the lens cap. (From
February 2007: "This week's idiot of the week: Israeli defense minister Peretz"
.)

In other words, the person in charge of the army didn't know how
binoculars worked. If that were his only sin, it might have been
forgotten by now.

But Peretz was also responsible for the 2006 war against Hezbollah in
Lebanon. That war was a total disaster for Israel. When two Israeli
soldiers were abducted by Hezbollah, Israel went into a state of total
panic, and launched the war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan
and no objectives. In the next few weeks, the supposed objectives
changed on an almost daily basis. ( "How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah."
)

Lieberman will presumably not make the same kinds of mistakes that
Peretz did, but maybe he will. At any rate, Peretz's experience
illustrates the enormous dangers of putting a politician in charge of
an organization, when the politician doesn't have the vaguest clue
what he's doing. Jewish Telegraphic Agency

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyanu, Avigdor Lieberman,
Yisrael Beiteinu, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Amir Peretz, Hezbollah, Lebanon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-May-16 World View -- A dark shadow looms over EU-Turkey refugee deal, as Turkey passes harsh anti-Kurdish law

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Downed EgyptAir flight an economic disaster for Egypt
  
• A dark shadow looms over EU-Turkey refugee deal, as Turkey passes harsh anti-Kurdish law
  

****
**** Downed EgyptAir flight an economic disaster for Egypt
****


A tourist rides a camel in front of the Giza pyramids (Reuters)

At this writing, new evidence indicates that there was an electrical
fire in the toilet and electronics of EgyptAir Flight 804, which went
down in the Mediterranean Sea on Thursday, killing all 66 people
onboard, as it traveled from Paris to Cairo. It's not known if the
fire was the cause of the downing, or if the fire was a byproduct of a
terror attack.

Either way, it's a disaster for Egypt's tourism industry and economy
in general, which has already been spiraling downward. This was the
third attack on Egypt's passenger aviation in just the last six
months. In March, an EgyptAir flight was hijacked by a man wearing
a fake explosive belt, and forced to land in Cyprus.

And in November, a passenger plane exploded over northern Sinai,
23 minutes after taking off from Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh
airport on the Sinai Peninsula, heading for St. Petersburg Russia.
That was not an Egyptian plane but was a Russian plane,
Metrojet flight 9268, but that makes little difference given that
it was blown up over Egypt.

Going beyond aviation disasters, there have been several terrorist
bombings in Egypt, and the north Sinai is almost a war zone.

The tourism industry contributes about 11 per cent of the country’s
gross domestic product and employs about 12 per cent of the workforce.
However, the number of tourists travelling to Egypt has fallen from
2.2 million in the first quarter of 2015 to about 1.2 million in the
first quarter of 2016. Egypt's beach resorts are almost deserted, and
even usually popular sites such as Giza’s pyramids and Great Sphinx
have few visitors anymore. The new airline disaster is going make
these bad figures even worse.

During the regime of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt was a tourism powerhouse,
but the number of visitors has been falling since the 2011 Arab Spring
and the overthrow of Mubarak, and even more since the army coup, led
by current president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, to oust the Muslim
Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi in 2013. International Business Times and CNN and BBC (9-Jan)

****
**** A dark shadow looms over EU-Turkey refugee deal, as Turkey passes harsh anti-Kurdish law
****

The EU-Turkey refugee deal has drastically reduced the flow of
migrants crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey to Greece. But the EU
has left Greece on its own to deal with the tens of thousands of
migrants that already arrived, including many that are crowded filthy
refugee camps.

The EU had promised Greece that EU member countries would send a staff
of 2,300 experts -- police, case officers, judges, and language
interpreters -- to help process asylum requests, and the EU has not
supplied that staff. Nor has the EU resolved the question about how
approved Syrian refugees are to be distributed to the EU member
countries, as many EU nations are stalling or refusing to accept more
migrants.

The EU has simply blown off its obligations, leaving it to Turkey to
take of the problem for them. The EU is desperately dependent on
Turkey, and soon will have to fulfill it's part of the EU-Turkey deal:
Allowing 70 million Turkish citizens to have visa-free travel in
Europe's Schengen Zone. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
forcefully and frequently repeated his threat that he will cancel the
refugee deal and open the floodgates if the EU reneges on the
visa-free travel.

Many Europeans dislike they idea under any circumstances. The
eastern European nations that were part of the Ottoman Empire
are opposed, and there are other groups of people who simply
dislike Turks.

But it's been made even more difficult because of Erdogan's
increasingly authoritarian government, especially crushing freedom of
speech by seizing the country's largest opposition newspaper. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)

Europeans have also been concerned Erdogan's harsh use of
anti-terrorism laws against Turkey's Kurdish minority. Those concerns
were made even stronger on Friday when the parliament passed a
constitutional amendment removing prosecutorial immunity from MPs.
The amendment is particularly targeted to deputies from the Kurdish
Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). The passage of the amendment will
permit Erdogan to have Kurdish members of parliament prosecuted and
possibly jailed on terrorism charges.

For the European Parliament to willingly approve Turkey's visa-free
travel, Turkey will have to change its laws -- something that's not
going to happen, and something that the increasingly authoritarian and
tyrannical Erdogan feels is not necessary since the EU is desperate.
But the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic European parliament
may refuse to approve visa-free travel anyway, leading to dark
confrontation between the EU and Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, EgyptAir flight 804, Russia, MetroJet flight 9268,
Hosni Mubarak, Mohammed Morsi, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
EU, Greece, Turkey, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-May-16 World View -- Afghan Taliban leader reportedly killed by US drone strike in Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China
  
• Afghan Taliban leader reportedly killed by US drone strike in Pakistan
  

****
**** Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China
****


Riot police confront protesters on Saturday in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city (Reuters)

Authorities in Kazakhstan reacted harshly to protests announced for
Saturday by detaining possibly hundreds of journalists, activists and
demonstrators. Police in full riot gear broke up the protests on
Saturday, and dozens more were arrested in cities across the country.

They're protesting against a planned "Land Reform" program. The
program would make it easier for foreigners to buy farmland or rent it
for 25 years. Protesters fear that the changes would make it easier
for large Chinese agribusinesses to take control of vast swaths of
farmland. According to one protester, "We can't give land to the
Chinese. If they come then they won't leave!" China shares a lengthy
border with Kazakhstan and has been heavily investing in its energy
sector and infrastructure.

The new law was approved in November, but only comes into effect on
July 1. In the last round of protests, on April 27, there were one or
two thousand people in each city, which is quite serious for
Kazakhstan where no dissent is tolerated. Authorities fear a repeat
of the huge protests in 2011, when oil workers went on strike, and 14
people were killed by police gunfire.

Kazakhstan is heavily dependent on oil exports and because of the drop
in oil prices, its revenues plummeted creating budget deficit. The
government had to decrease its expenditure, and the national currency
lost half of its value, although it's slowly recovering now as oil
prices are going up.

The collapse in global commodity prices, especially oil, drove Russia
into recession, and has had s big ripple effect throughout central
Asia, whose economies are dependent on Russia through subsidies and
migrant labor. Kazakhstan's currency, the tenge, has lost 50% of its
value against the US dollar, and other currencies in the region have
suffered similarly.

Although the proposed Land Reform law triggered the riots and
protests, the downward spiraling economy has turned it into general
protests again Kazakhstan's president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who was
First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan in the last few
years of the Soviet Empire, and then became president in 1991 when the
Soviet Empire collapsed.

On May 5, Nazarbayev announced that the Land Reform would be put on
hold, until the new laws could be discussed publicly. That was a huge
concession to the activists, and perhaps was as much a sign of panic
as anything else, but it didn't stop the protests from happening
anyway on Saturday. EurasiaNet and Press TV (Tehran) and BBC (28-Apr) and
Jamestown

****
**** Afghan Taliban leader reportedly killed by US drone strike in Pakistan
****

According to the Pentagon, a US drone strike into Pakistan's
Balochistan province, has "likely" killed Mullah Akhtar Mohammad
Mansour.

Mansour's rise to power came about in a bizarre way. His predecessor
was Mullah Omar, who was the nominal leader of Afghan Taliban until
his death was announced in July of last year. But when his death was
announced, the announcement said that he had died in April 2013. In
other words, for over two years of being leader of the Taliban, he was
dead.

At that point, Mansour rose to leadership, but he has not been
accepted as leader by all factions, with the result of extremely
bitter political infighting within the Taliban.

Nonetheless, in recent months the Taliban has been expanding
operations in Afghanistan's south, and has captured several key
districts, leading many to believe that President Obama will be forced
to leave a large military contingent in Afghanistan at the end of his
term.

Mansour's whereabouts are a closely guarded secret, so if Mansour has
indeed been killed by an American drone strike, it would have to have
been done with intelligence from sources within the Taliban itself.
Confirmation of Mansour's death would have to come from announcement
by the Taliban.

The death of Mansour, if confirmed, will not mean the end of the
Taliban, just as the death of Osama bin Laden did not prevent
continuing operations by al-Qaeda and did not prevent the rise of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). One possible
scenario is that his death would worsen the political infighting in
the Taliban. Another possible scenario is that an even more hardline
leader will be chose, someone who will unite all the Taliban factions
and end the infighting. AP and Foreign Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Russia, Nursultan Nazarbayev,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, Mullah Omar,
Pakistan, Balochistan

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-May-16 World View -- Austria deeply split between far-right and left-liberal candidates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Austria deeply split between far-right and left-liberal candidates
  
• Austria's election part of a world-wide move to the right with deep polarization
  

****
**** Austria deeply split between far-right and left-liberal candidates
****


Election posters for Norbert Hofer (L) and Alexander van der Bellen. (AP)

As of this writing on Sunday evening, Austria's electorate is deeply
polarized between two candidates who split the vote almost evenly in
an election on Sunday. The postal votes will be counted on Monday, to
decide the actual winner.

The two candidates are Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party
versus Alexander Van der Bellen of the left-liberal Green Party. Both
are considered to be fringe parties. What's perhaps most remarkable
is that the two main centrist parties, the center-right Austrian
People's Party (ÖVP) and the center-left Social Democratic Party of
Austria (SPÖ) have both been shut out, for the first time since 1945,
the end of World War II. This rejection of established politicians is
similar to what has been happening in American politics.

There were 4.48 million people voting directly on Sunday, giving
right-wing candidate Norbert Hofer has 51.9% of the vote, and
left-wing candidate Alexander Van der Bellen has 48.1% of the vote.
However, there are 700,000 absentee ballots, or 13.5% of the total
ballots, and so it's quite possible that the postal votes will change
the result quite significantly, giving the victory to either
candidate.

Austria's politics have been strongly affected by the migrant crisis.
About 90,000 people claimed asylum in Austria last year, equivalent to
about 1% of the Austrian population, and the Freedom Party ran an
anti-immigration campaign. Last year, Austria followed Hungary in
closing the border to migrants

passing through from Greece to Germany. Then last month, Austria's
parliament voted to close border with Italy to slow refugees.

A victory by Hofer would give momentum to anti-migrant and eurosceptic
parties in other EU countries. Moves to the right have already
occurred in several countries, including France, Germany, Hungary and
Denmark. BBC and The Local (Austria) and Reuters

****
**** Austria's election part of a world-wide move to the right with deep polarization
****

I've been writing about the worldwide increase in nationalism and
xenophobia for years. This is a feature of every generational Crisis
era, and we're seeing a repeat of many things that happened in the
1930s.

In 2008 in South Africa, tens of thousands of immigrants were forced
to flee for their lives from their homes and businesses, often with no
time to collect their belongings before their homes and businesses are
looted and destroyed. The xenophobic violence and looting were
generally perpetrated by young South Africans from the Zulu and Xhosa
tribes. At first, refugees from Zimbabwe were particularly targeted,
but later any foreigner was targeted, forcing the government to set up
refugee centers housing some 70,000 refugees. ( "South Africa will create 'temporary shelters' for migrants, not 'refugee camps'"
)

I've written many times about anti-immigrant, anti-Roma, and
anti-Muslim xenophobia in Europe. For example, in 2009 I wrote about
xenophobia in Switzerland ( "Switzerland shocks itself by passing a ban on minarets."
). Other examples include mutual xenophobia between
China and its neighbors, Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam.

So what we're seeing today is not something that's suddenly sprung up.
It's part of a growing trend that's slowly but surely been gathering
power since the generational Crisis era began around 2003.

There's another side to this, however, that we haven't really yet seen
yet, but certainly will -- something corresponding to the 1930s rise
of the radical left -- Socialism and Communism -- as a countervailing
force to the rise of the radical right. Early signs of this are
already evident in America in the candidacies of Donald Trump and
Bernie Sanders.

It's worth recalling something Donald Trump has said. He's said
repeatedly some variation of the following: "My wife has told me to
act more presidential. If I did that, then there would be only ten
people in this audience instead of 2000. So I'm not going to become
presidential until I have to be." The clear implication is that Trump
is like any other politician, just telling his supporters what they
want to hear.

So, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Trump himself may
or may not be nationalistic and xenophobic, but he's making
nationalistic, xenophobic speeches because he's appealing to a highly
nationalistic, xenophobic audience, mostly Millennial. In that sense,
he's no different from any other politician in that he'll tell people
what they want to hear if they'll vote for him and give him money.
But it's the people who decide the policies, not the politicians.

As I've written many, many times, it's a core principle of
generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are
made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. The Holocaust and World War II would have
occurred with or without Adolf Hitler.

So we've been seeing the same phenomena in both America and Austria:
Complete rejection of established politicians by young Millennials,
and deep polarization as large segments of the population move to the
far left, while other segments move to far right. This is what
happened in the 1930s, leading to World War II. And it's what's
happening today, and will lead to the approaching Clash of
Civilizations World War that I've been writing about for years.
The Local (Austria) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Austria, Norbert Hofer, Freedom Party,
Alexander van der Bellen, Green Party, People's Party, Social Democratic Party,
South Africa, Zimbabwe, Switzerland, Socialism, Communism

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-May-16 World View -- Massive explosions in Syria target Bashar al-Assad's heartland

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Death of Afghan Taliban leader complicates America's relationship with Pakistan
  
• Massive explosions in Syria target Bashar al-Assad's heartland
  

****
**** Death of Afghan Taliban leader complicates America's relationship with Pakistan
****


Wreckage of vehicle in which Mansour was traveling when hit by US drone strike (Anadolu)

The Taliban has confirmed that the American drone strike that "likely"
killed Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, as we reported two days ago,
actually did kill Mansour.
The drone strike occurred in Pakistan's Balochistan province.

President Obama bragged that the killing was "an important milestone"
for peace in Afghanistan. Secretary of State John Kerry said, "This
action sends a clear message to the world that we will continue to
stand with our Afghan partners as they work to build a more stable,
united, secure and prosperous Afghanistan. Peace is what we
want. Mansour was a threat to that effort."

These Pollyannaish views are not supported by any of the analysts I've
seen. The Taliban will undoubtedly go through a period of confusion
as a new leader is picked, but the wish that the new leader will bring
about peace in Afghanistan is fantasy. In fact, the disorganization
within the Taliban could allow the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh) to gain a stronger foothold in Afghanistan.

Many consider the most likely choice for Mansour's successor to be
Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani Network, which has worked
closely with the Afghan Taliban. Haqqani has a $5 million U.S. bounty
on his head, and is widely seen by U.S. and Afghan officials as the
most dangerous warlord in the Taliban insurgency, responsible for the
most bloody attacks, including one last month in Kabul in which 64
people were killed. Thanks to the help of the Haqqani network, the
Taliban now control more territory in Afghanistan today than they did
since 2001. Haqqani could take control of the entire Taliban movement
if he's approved.

The US drone strike into Pakistan's Balochistan province that resulted
in Mansour's death is causing analysts to focus on America's
relationship with Pakistan. The US has conducted numerous drone
strikes into Pakistan's tribal area. Pakistan's government publicly
condemns all American drone strikes as violating Pakistan's sovereign
territory, but it's widely believed that Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) agency covertly approves of the strikes, and even
provides the CIA with intelligence for identifying targets.

However, the strike into Balochistan province would be the first known
drone strike outside of the tribal area, and is liable to raise
hackles in Pakistan similar to those that were raised when American
special forces entered Pakistan and killed Osama bin Laden.

The ISI has apparently never approved any drone strikes against
Haqqani network targets in Pakistan, and it's suspected that the ISI
likes and supports Sirajuddin Haqqani. This has given rise to the
speculation that the ISI somehow got the US to kill Mansour so that
Haqqani could take over the Taliban. If that speculation is true,
then Mansour's death could lead to an even greater insurgency in
Afghanistan, and would substantially complicate America's relationship
with Pakistan.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
civil war fought between 1991 and 1996. The war was fought mainly
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan.
Today's Taliban terrorists are radicalized Pashtuns, and Generational
Dynamics predicts that they are not going to agree to any peace deal,
no matter whom they select as their new leader.

President Obama came into office promising to reverse the evil
policies of past presidents that led us into war, and promised to
bring peace to America. He won a Nobel Peace Prize. But in the last
week, President Obama has just won another honor: President Barack
Obama officially became the U.S. president to have been at war the
longest — longer than Lyndon Johnson, longer than Abraham Lincoln and
certainly longer than George W. Bush. This is what happens when
America's leader has no clue what's going on in the world. With wars
going on in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, Obama is virtually certain to
be the only U.S. president to spend a full eight years presiding over
wars. Deutsche Welle and Reuters and AFP and The Diplomat

****
**** Massive explosions in Syria target Bashar al-Assad's heartland
****

A series of coordinated terrorist attacks on Monday in cities near
Syria's Mediterranean coast have killed nearly 150 people. There were
seven nearly simultaneous explosions in two seaside cities, Jableh and
Tartus. A series of car bombs and suicide bombers targeted bus
stations, hospitals and other sites.

The obvious objective of the bombings was to kill as many civilians as
possible. However, the Russians may also have been targets, as Russia
has a naval base near Tartus and an airbase near Jableh.

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
responsibility for the attacks. Some analysts considered that
unlikely, pointing out that ISIS has been operating mostly in eastern
Syria, and had not previously operated in western Syria. However, no
one else has claimed credit, and there are some 700,000 refugees from
Aleppo, Idlib, Raqqa and other war zones who have fled to the region,
and an ISIS cell could well have been among them.

The attacks are a major embarrassment to the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, for several reasons.

• This is the heartland of al-Assad's Alawite ethnic/religious
  group support, and it's been relatively peaceful until now. In fact,
  al-Assad has been withholding his army from the fight in Aleppo in
  order to keep them close by to protect his stronghold, and prevent
  exactly this kind of attack.
  
  
• The car bombs particularly required a large supply of explosive,
  and smuggling that much explosive into the region indicates a big hole
  in al-Assad's security. Furthermore, the coordination of the attacks
  indicates a great deal of sophistication.
  
  
• Al-Assad's strategy in fighting the war in Syria has been to
  target "moderate" Sunni Muslim rebels, and leave ISIS alone, since
  ISIS was also targeting "moderate" Sunni Muslim rebels. If Monday's
  attack is a sign that ISIS is now directly targeting al-Assad, then
  his whole strategy will have to change. Actually, the fact that his
  stronghold was so effectively attacked means that he'll have to change
  strategies anyway, irrespective of the perpetrators.

The Syrian regime has been scrambling to explain the massive attacks.
Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi blamed the terrorist attacks on Qatar,
Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which is not widely believed outside of
Damascus. He said that the "cowardly terrorist actions" would not
destabilize the country.

I'm sorry, Dear Reader, but the al-Assad regime uses mortars on
innocent protesters, uses Sarin gas on innocent citizens, uses
missiles on children's dormitories, and uses barrel bombs on
hospitals, so for the regime to refer to someone else's terrorist
attacks as "cowardly" is really laughable. AFP and AP and SANA (Damascus) and
Syria Online (Damascus)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour,
Pakistan, Balochistan, John Kerry, Sirajuddin Haqqani, Haqqani network,
Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Iraq, Syria,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Jableh, Tartus, Aleppo, Idlib, Raqqa, Bashar al-Assad, Alawite,
Wael al-Halaqi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[radind]

Quote:... "As I've written many, many times, it's a core principle of
generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are
made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. The Holocaust and World War II would have
occurred with or without Adolf Hitler."...

I agree that WWII likely to have occurred without Hitler( I think another dictator would have emerged).
It is less clear on the Holocaust. That took a special kind of evil.

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-23-2016, 10:31 PM)radind Wrote: > I agree that WWII likely to have occurred without Hitler( I think
> another dictator would have emerged). It is less clear on the
> Holocaust. That took a special kind of evil.

Having studied this subject now for a number of years, I actually
don't agree with that. Genocides where one group tries to exterminate
another group by one means or another occur all the time. I have no
doubt that al-Assad would be setting up extermination camps today for
Sunnis, if he thought he could get away with it.

It's hard to know what might have happened if Hitler hadn't existed,
but we do a have a "modern day Holocaust in the making" to provide
a comparison.

The attacks by Buddhists against Muslims in 2013 were very
much like the attacks by Christians against Jews in 1930s Germany.

Here's something that I wrote in 2013:

Quote:> On Tuesday, a mob of hundreds of Buddhists descended on a Muslim
> community in Okkan, Burma, hurled bricks and set hundreds of homes
> and mosques on fire. Terrified Muslims fled to fields to escape
> the attack, and came back to find that they'd lost all they had,
> with their homes in piles of rubble. Violent attacks of this sort
> began last year in Rakhine state in southwestern Burma, and have
> been spreading to other villages, with the worst happening about a
> month ago in central Burma. Tuesday's attack brings the violence
> very close to Rangoon (Yangon), Burma's largest commercial city.
> It's hard to see how this spreading violence can continue much
> longer without spiraling into a major war between Buddhists and
> Muslims that will spread beyond Burma.

Here are some of the articles that I wrote in 2013:

** 5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e130405

** 2-May-13 World View -- Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma (Myanmar)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e130502

** 3-Oct-13 World View -- Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e131003

** 24-May-15 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150524

I believe that the situation in 1930s Germany is very similar to the
situation today in Burma.

It's really quite possible that the Holocaust wasn't even Hitler's
idea. An idea that radical would have had to have widespread support
in the upper Nazi echelons, and Hitler simply adopted the ideas put
forth by others. So it's my opinion that the Holocaust would have
happened with or without Hitler, and that Burma is on the road to a
similar Holocaust. It's also my opinion that the Holocaust was a very
common form of evil.