Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(12-31-2016, 09:56 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Lol!  So it's all my imagination, huh?  I dreamed up the "China dream" myself?  Maybe I hallucinated those illegal military bases on artificial islands in the SCS as well.

I've been discussing the Taiwan issue with people for 15 years, and there are a lot of people in Congress and the military that are very protective of Taiwan.  So I'm telling you that if China invades Taiwan, then we'll be at war within 6 hours.  Beijing knows this.  If they didn't know it, then they would already have sent troops into Taiwan, as they did in Tiananmen Square, as they have into Tibet and Xinjiang, and are threatening to do in Hong Kong, and as they do anywhere on the mainland at the slightest hint of dissent.  Therefore, any threat of war against Taiwan is inevitably a threat of war against the United States.  Chinese, Taiwanese and American officials are all aware of this, even if you claim not to be.

Ah, so you base your idea about China wanting to become "the principal superpower in the world" on what a bunch of westerners in DC say?

I can well believe, due to that rising xenophobia and racism you talk about, that westerners in DC might have some delusional paranoia along the lines you outline.  That doesn't mean that China is likely to start a war with the US, though; it means any war between the two is more likely to be started by the US.

Of course, that may not  make a lot of difference.  If such a war went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of cities and China would lose everything - which is perhaps another reason the US is more likely to start such a war.  It's far from clear that Russia would come in on the US side, though; more likely they would sit it out until it was already decided.  I suppose they might then decide to take over China, so that they can actually become the world's predominant superpower.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Jan-17 World View -- Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In New Year's address, Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China
  
• Did Taiwan's president say that Taiwan is 'an independent, sovereign country'?
  
• Taiwan president's planned US visit angers China even more
  

****
**** In New Year's address, Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China
****


Tsai Ing-wen at news conference on Saturday

In the aftermath of the 10-minute phone conversation with
president-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen,
tensions between Taiwan and China have been substantially increasing.

Reports indicate that China's military, the People's Liberation Army
(PLA), has become increasingly alarmed by this phone conversation,
since they feel that it threatens additional steps towards attempts by
Taiwan to become an independent nation, not a province of China.

Since then, China's military has been stepping up military drills near
Taiwan, in a show of military force. China sent its aircraft carrier
and a naval fleet into waters near Taiwan, and also sent military jets
to circle the airspace near Taiwan. Taiwan's defense minister has
warned that enemy threats were growing daily.

In a New Year press conference on Saturday, president Tsai addressed a
range of issue, including relations with China. She accused China of
threatening Taiwan, and said that "we will not bow to pressure":

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Since [we took office on] May 20, we have endeavored
> to maintain peaceful and stable relations across the Taiwan Strait
> in accordance with the people’s will and consensus in
> Taiwan. Driven by our respect for history and the spirit of
> seeking common ground while setting aside differences, we have
> continuously expressed goodwill towards the other side across the
> strait. We hope that the two sides can gradually reduce
> confrontations and differences through positive interactions.
>
> But in the past few months, it has been the general feeling of the
> Taiwanese people that the rational and calm position that both
> sides have worked hard to maintain has seen certain changes. Step
> by step, Beijing is going back to the old path of dividing,
> coercing, and even threatening and intimidating Taiwan. We hope
> this does not reflect a policy choice by Beijing, but must say
> that such conduct has hurt the feelings of the Taiwanese people
> and destabilized cross-strait relations.
>
> For the sake of safeguarding regional peace and prosperity, I want
> to once again reiterate that our commitments will not change, and
> our goodwill will not change. But we will not bow to pressure, and
> we will of course not revert to the old path of confrontation.
>
> Whether cross-strait ties can take a turn for the better in the
> coming year will depend on our patience and resolve. But it will
> also depend on how Beijing sees the future of cross-strait
> relations, and whether it is willing to assume its share of the
> responsibility for building new models for cross-strait
> interactions. This is necessary to answer the collective hope for
> peace from the people on both sides of the strait, as well as the
> different parties in the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Tsai added, "In 2017, our society is going to face some turbulence and
face some uncertainties. It’s going to test our whole national
security team, as well as the whole government’s ability to handle
change. We need to face this matter calmly."

Reports indicate that China is planning retaliatory measures against
Taiwan, such as conducting war games near Taiwan or imposing trade
sanctions.

It never ceases to amaze me that China gets away with illegally
annexing huge regions in the South China Sea, in violation of
international law by the international tribunal in the Hague, but then
considers a ten-minute phone call an act of war. AFP and Office of Taiwan's President and Reuters

Related Articles

• Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term (19-Dec-2016)
  
  
• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  
  
• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Did Taiwan's president say that Taiwan is 'an independent, sovereign country'?
****

The excerpt from Tsai's press conference quoted above is the official
translation of Tsai's statement from a Taiwan government web site.

However, other news reports say that Tsai also said the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Republic of China is an independent, sovereign
> country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is a highly inflammatory statement by the president of Taiwan,
and so it's not surprising if it was removed from the official text.
(Republic of China is the full official name of Taiwan.)

In a press conference two weeks ago, President Obama said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"China views Taiwan as part of China, but recognizes
> that it has to approach Taiwan as an entity that has its own ways
> of doing things.
>
> Taiwanese have agreed that as long as they’re able to continue to
> function with some degree of autonomy, that they won’t charge
> forward and declare independence."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Obama's description of Taiwan as an "entity" has angered some Taiwanese
activists, saying "Taiwan is an independent state, not an entity."

Some activists claim that Taiwan is already a de facto
independent state, because "Taiwan has already cut through the mire of
its troubled history to become recognized by humanity, irrespective of
official diplomatic relations." In fact, these activists claim that
calling Taiwan an "independent nation" does not contradict the
One-China principle.

That may be the reason why President Tsai felt that it was OK to refer
to Taiwan as "an independent, sovereign country." Bloomberg and Reuters and Taipei Times and China Post (Taiwan)

Related Articles

• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

****
**** Taiwan president's planned US visit angers China even more
****

Taiwan has confirmed that president Tsai Ing-wen will make a foreign
visit to Central America, and will visit Nicaragua, Guatemala, El
Salvador and Honduras between January 7-15.

The part of the trip that's further infuriating the Chinese is that
Tsai will make "transit stops" in the US before and after the trip to
Central America. She will make a stopover in Houston en route to
Central America and San Francisco on her return trip to Taiwan.

There has been media speculation that Tsai will meet with
representatives of Donald Trump during one of the stopovers, but
Tsai's office has refused to confirm or deny these speculations.

China has repeatedly demanded that Washington not permit Tsai to visit
the US during her trip. However, a Tsai spokesman says, "These
transit stops are undertaken out of consideration for the safety,
comfort, convenience and dignity of the traveler. President Tsai's
transits will be private and unofficial." China Post (Taiwan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, China,
Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras

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[John J. Xenakis]

(12-31-2016, 10:33 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Taiwan at its closest point to the mainland is over 120 miles away
> from the mainland. By contrast britain's closest point to Europe
> is only 20 mIles away at Dover and because of those 20 miles
> Hitler was unable to invade Britain even though he controlled the
> entire western European coast in 1940.

And yet, traveling in the other direction, the Allies were able to
launch an invasion of Germany from England.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-31-2016, 09:56 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Lol! So it's all my imagination, huh? I dreamed up the "China
> dream" myself? Maybe I hallucinated those illegal military bases
> on artificial islands in the SCS as well.

> I've been discussing the Taiwan issue with people for 15 years,
> and there are a lot of people in Congress and the military that
> are very protective of Taiwan. So I'm telling you that if China
> invades Taiwan, then we'll be at war within 6 hours. Beijing
> knows this. If they didn't know it, then they would already have
> sent troops into Taiwan, as they did in Tiananmen Square, as they
> have into Tibet and Xinjiang, and are threatening to do in Hong
> Kong, and as they do anywhere on the mainland at the slightest
> hint of dissent. Therefore, any threat of war against Taiwan is
> inevitably a threat of war against the United States. Chinese,
> Taiwanese and American officials are all aware of this, even if
> you claim not to be.

(12-31-2016, 12:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Ah, so you base your idea about China wanting to become "the
> principal superpower in the world" on what a bunch of westerners
> in DC say?

> I can well believe, due to that rising xenophobia and racism you
> talk about, that westerners in DC might have some delusional
> paranoia along the lines you outline. That doesn't mean that
> China is likely to start a war with the US, though; it means any
> war between the two is more likely to be started by the US.

> Of course, that may not make a lot of difference. If such a war
> went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of cities and China would
> lose everything - which is perhaps another reason the US is more
> likely to start such a war. It's far from clear that Russia would
> come in on the US side, though; more likely they would sit it out
> until it was already decided. I suppose they might then decide to
> take over China, so that they can actually become the world's
> predominant superpower.

You say, "If such a war went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of
cities and China would lose everything."

Actually, that's not the Chinese view. The Chinese position was
stated by a PLA top-level officer that I quoted in 2005:

General Zhu Chenghu Wrote:> If the Americans are determined to interfere [in Taiwan, then] we
> will be determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for
> the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [in central
> China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that
> hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.

** China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e050716

However, war with China can start with many scenarios besides a
standoff over Taiwan. It might begin in the Mideast, Europe, the
South China Sea, in Kashmir, and so forth, and then spread to
full-scale world war.

[Warren Dew]

(12-31-2016, 11:36 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You say, "If such a war went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of
cities and China would lose everything."

Actually, that's not the Chinese view.  The Chinese position was
stated by a PLA top-level officer that I quoted in 2005:

General Zhu Chenghu Wrote:>   If the Americans are determined to interfere [in Taiwan, then] we
>   will be determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for
>   the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [in central
>   China].  Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that
>   hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.

Actually, he's saying exactly what I said.  The "Xi" in "Xian" is Chinese for "west"; virtually all of China's population is "east of Xian".  Check out this population density map:



Xian is in the tall, light salmon colored province just to the right of geographical center.  Notice how all the high population density provinces are east of it, and to the west is mostly minimally populated mountains and steppe.

With respect to what China would go to war over, Zhu is an outlier; China officially has a no first use policy.  It is true that China seems to rely purely on nuclear deterrence, and does not maintain any counterforce capability, unlike the US and Russia, and that could cause rapid escalation if anyone tries to use a limited nuclear attack against them, since their force structure makes them incapable of responding with a similarly limited attack.

But we may see your theories tested shortly, as Trump seems headed toward abandoning the One China policy and the US promise not to garrison Taiwan.  I think it makes perfect sense for the US to base part of the Seventh Fleet on Taiwan, but I suppose if Zhu were in charge, that might risk nuclear war.

[Warren Dew]

(12-31-2016, 11:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-31-2016, 10:33 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Taiwan at its closest point to the mainland is over 120 miles away
>   from the mainland. By contrast britain's closest point to Europe
>   is only 20 mIles away at Dover and because of those 20 miles
>   Hitler was unable to invade Britain even though he controlled the
>   entire western European coast in 1940.  

And yet, traveling in the other direction, the Allies were able to
launch an invasion of Germany from England.

I think an invasion of the mainland from Taiwan is more likely than an invasion of Taiwan from the mainland as well.  Taiwan isn't a big island, but it's almost entirely highly defensible mountains; its tallest mountain is taller than any in the contiguous 48 United States.

[Warren Dew]

(12-31-2016, 11:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: In fact, these activists claim that calling Taiwan an "independent nation" does not contradict the One-China principle.

All right, even I think that's a stretch.

Edit: If Silents were running things, I'm sure they could figure out a way to make Taiwan an "independent province" of China. With boomers in charge, such a compromise might be more difficult.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Jan-17 World View -- Istanbul Turkey New Year's terror attack compared to Paris and Orlando attacks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Istanbul Turkey New Year's terror attack compared to Paris and Orlando attacks
  
• Terror attacks expose deep divisions in Turkey's society
  

****
**** Istanbul Turkey New Year's terror attack compared to Paris and Orlando attacks
****


Reina nightclub in Istanbul on Sunday morning, several hours after the attack (EPA)

The people of Turkey were once again traumatized by a new terror
attack, this time on a well-known Reina night club in Istanbul, where
crowds of 700 people, both Turks and foreigners, were celebrating the
New Year. At around 1:15 am on January 1, a gunman opened fire on
people in the packed nightclub, killing at 39 people and injuring 65
others. The gunman fled and is still at large.

No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it's believed to
be the work of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), because of the similarity to attacks in Paris and Orlando,
where attackers killed civilians indiscriminately in entertainment
venues.

In Paris on November 13, 2015, three suicide bombers detonated
themselves at a football (soccer) game. Then terrorists targeted
three cafes and restaurants with gunfire, and then attacked the
Bataclan theatre, where three gunmen opened fire on a large crowd.
In all, 130 people were killed. These attacks were planned
and carried out by an ISIS terror cell in Brussels.

In Orlando on June 12, 2016, 49 people were killed by a gunman at a
local gay nightclub. The assailant had sworn allegiance to ISIS, but
no concrete links were found.

Turkey has suffered dozens of terrorist attacks in the past 18 months,
killing hundreds of people. The perpetrators have been both ISIS and
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), including the PKK offshoot Kurdistan
Freedom Falcons (TAK). There have been four previous terrorist
attacks in just the five weeks:

• November 24: Car bomb targeting a government building in Adana
  kills two people and injures 33.
  
• December 10 – TAK terrorist car bombing in Istanbul killed 44
  people, wounding 155.
  
• December 17 – Suicide car bombing of a public bus in the central
  Anatolian city of Kayseri, killing 14 soldiers and wounding 55
  others.
  
• December 19 -- Assassination of Andrey Karlov, Russia's ambassador
  to Turkey, in Ankara by an officer in Turkey's security
  forces.

The Turkish people have been traumatized not only by the endless
stream of terrorist attacks, but also by the July 15 failed coup
attempt. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP

Related Articles

• Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions (29-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Paris and Beirut in shock and anger after massive terrorist attacks (14-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Orlando nightclub terror attack may be result of ISIS and al-Qaeda troubles (13-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Terror attacks expose deep divisions in Turkey's society
****

Ever since the July 15 coup attempt, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been fired or jailed well over 100,000
people. Erdogan has particularly targeted journalists that
write dissenting articles, but the targeted people also include
members of parliament and other politicians, judges, police,
and teachers.

Since many of the people targeted are from the political opposition or
are dissenters from Erdogan's policies, many people believe that
Erdogan is using the coup attempt to eliminate his political enemies
by force, including violence. This view is supported by the fact that
Erdogan had already begun targeting the political opposition when he
shut down the opposition newspaper Zaman several months before the
coup attempt. These attacks have enormously polarized the Turkish
people, with about half supporting Erdogan, and half despising him.

One analyst, Soner Cagaptay of the Turkish Research Program at the
Washington Institute says that Turkey's population is sharply divided
into two approximately equal groups:

• About one-half of the country's population comprise leftists,
  liberals, social democrats, Alevis (who are liberal Muslims),
  secularists and Kurds. Since taking office in 2003, Erdogan
  demonized, targeted, and brutally cracked down on these people, many
  of whom loathe him.
  
  
• The other half is a loyal, right wing constituency, including
  Turkish nationalists, conservatives and Islamists. These people adore
  him.

Another analyst, Simon Waldman, notes that Erdogan's reaction to the
New Year's attack was different from his reaction to other attacks in
that, unlike other times, Erdogan did not refer to the people who were
killed as "martyrs." This word is almost always used by Erdogan with
the death of a Turkish citizen in a terrorist attack or from military
combat. But in this case, Erdogan said, "I offer my condolences to
our citizens’, to our foreign guests’ and to our security officer’s
families."

Waldman speculates that the reason is that the attack was on a
nightclub where alcohol was served, and the people were celebrating
not only the New Year but also Christmas, as these two holidays are
often conflated by Muslims. These are secular things that are
strongly condemned by hardcore conservative Muslim clerics, and indeed
it's suspected that the terrorist attack was inspired by opposition to
Christmas and New Year's parties. Indeed, the attacker was wearing a
Santa Claus hat.

In fact, Hurriyet columnist Murat Yetkin suggests that the "poisonous"
atmosphere in Turkey is because by "rising nationalist and
religious chauvinism":

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Another question surrounds the political atmosphere
> in Turkey, which is getting more poisonous every day with rising
> nationalist and religious chauvinism. Religious Affairs
> Directorate head Mehmet Görmez was quick to make a statement after
> the attack, saying there was “no difference” between terror
> attacks targeting places of worship and attacks targeting
> entertainment sites, and they should be equally condemned. That
> statement followed cheering after the attack among certain social
> media users who believe that celebrating the New Year is
> un-Islamic and something to be despised.
>
> Görmez’s statement was welcome. But just two days before, the
> Friday sermon prepared by Görmez’s Diyanet and read in more than
> 80,000 mosques across Turkey harshly criticized New Year
> celebrations as illegitimate and having no place in Islam or
> Turkey’s cultural traditions. Only a few days ago, members of an
> ultranationalist group made headlines by performing street theater
> in the Western province of Aydin by pointing a pistol at the
> forehead of another militant dressed in a Santa Claus
> costume. Unlike the cases frequently opened against critical media
> in Turkey, the police and the courts took no action against them
> for “praising crime” or “stirring hatred among the
> people.”"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In fact, many commentators are pointing out that Turks are now
fighting each other as much as they're fighting ISIS and the PKK.
CNN and Globe and Mail (Canada) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Turkey's Erdogan eliminates more opposition in quest for power (06-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media (06-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Istanbul, Reina nightclub,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Paris, Bataclan, Orlando, Russia, Andrey Karlov,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, TAK,
Soner Cagaptay, Simon Waldman, Murat Yetkin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Jan-17 World View -- Syrian opposition groups suspend negotiations of peace talks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Video emerges from Burma (Myanmar) showing police beating Rohingya Muslims
  
• Syrian opposition groups suspend negotiations of peace talks
  

****
**** Video emerges from Burma (Myanmar) showing police beating Rohingya Muslims
****


Screen grab from video. Dozens of Rohingyas on the right are being forced to watch the beating

For months, Burma (Myanmar) police and soldiers have been committing
ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State by scorched
earth attacks, burning down their villages, and committing massacres,
rapes and other atrocities that have forced tens of thousands to flee
for their lives across the border into Bangladesh.

Burma has forbidden any journalists or humanitarian groups from
entering Rakhine State to investigate, which many people consider to
be an implied admission of guilt by Burma's government.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has documented the ethnic cleansing through a
series of "before and after" satellite images. Burma's government
agrees that the satellite images show that Rohingya villages are being
burned down, but they make the laughable claim that the Rohingyas are
burning down the villages themselves in order to embarrass the
government. There have also been dozens of videos showing Burma's
police beating and raping Rohingya civilians, but Burma's government
claims that all of these videos are phony and have been fabricated.

So now a new video has emerged showing police beating and kicking a
civilian, and forcing dozens of other Rohingyas to watch as the
beating takes place. The video was taken by a policeman smoking a
cigarette. Other policemen obviously knew that he was taking the
video, suggesting that taking videos of policemen beating, killing and
raping Rohingyas is some kind of standard procedure.

The mystery is how this video became public. It's thought that some
dissident official with access to the video, and shocked by the
behavior of his fellow policeman, published the video on the internet
surreptitiously, where it has gone viral.

The second remarkable thing, beyond the fact of the video itself, is
that Burma's government is acknowledging that the video is portraying
a real event. The policemen appearing the video have been arrested,
and the government says that there will be an investigation for police
brutality.

Nobody seriously believes that anything will change. The
investigation may lead to the conviction of one or two policemen, but
the Buddhist xenophobic hatred of Muslims in Burma goes very deep.
The root of the violence is xenophobic attacks by Buddhists led by
Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," against the
Rohingya Muslims, including rapes, torture and other atrocities
committed by Buddhists, targeting the Rohingyas. The Rohingyas have a
darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali dialect.

There are about a million Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, where
they have lived for generations, but Burma's government refuses to
recognize them as citizens. They are, for all practical purposes, a
stateless ethnic group, living on the Bangladesh-Burma border for
generations, but rejected by both countries. In fact, Burma refuses
to identify the Rohingya as a unique ethnic group, preferring to call
them Bengali, and referring to them as illegal immigrants from
Bangladesh. In the last few years, large mobs of Buddhists have
massacred entire neighborhoods of Muslims in various regions of the
country, mutilating, raping and killing hundreds, and displacing
thousands from their homes. We're used to hearing about atrocities
committed by Muslim jihadists in the Mideast, but in Burma the
situation is reversed -- it's the Buddhists who are committing the
atrocities, while the Muslims are, for the most part, innocent
victims. Russia Today and Bangkok Post and YouTube: Rohingya beating video

Related Articles

• Asian jihadists become radicalized by Burma's (Myanmar's) Rohingya slaughter (07-Dec-2016)
  
  
• UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas (29-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  

****
**** Syrian opposition groups suspend negotiations of peace talks
****

The Free Syrian Army (FSA), a coalition of "moderate" groups opposing
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, have suspended peace talks because
of repeated ceasefire violations by al-Assad's warplanes and by
al-Assad's ally, the Iran-backed Lebanon militia Hezbollah.

The ceasefire was announced last week, brokered by Russia, Iran, and
Turkey, and was to lead to peace talks soon, taking place in Astana,
the capital city of Kazakhstan. The United States, the United
Nations, and the European Union were all excluded from negotiations
about the ceasefire and peace talks, which presumably was supposed to
make them more likely to succeed.

Al-Assad has always been the most volatile of the participants in any
of these discussions. Al-Assad started the civil war in 2011, when
his bombers started targeting innocent women and children, including
Palestinians in a refugee camp near Latakia, which drew young
jihadists from around the world to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting
in the formation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

So the question that I've asked repeated for months and years is how
can any "peace deal" ever succeed in view of al-Assad's evident
determination to exterminate as many Sunni women and children as he
can?

The FSA has issued its statement suspending its participation in the
peace talks because his warplanes have been bombing civilian targets
in a region near Damascus in which the city's water supply is located.
Hezbollah and Syrian army troops are also headed for the same region.
According to the FSA, "Any (advance) on the ground goes against the
(ceasefire) agreement and if things don't return to how they were
before, the accord will be considered null and void."

It's been assumed that Russia and Iran would control al-Assad and
force him by any means necessary to honor the ceasefire, but it
appears that assumption is wrong. Unless Russia and Iran find a way
to control al-Assad, then the "ceasefire" will collapse completely
within a few days. France 24 and VOA

Related Articles

• Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria (30-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it (13-Sep-2016)
  
  
• South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence (24-Dec-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Rakhine state, Bangladesh,
Syria, Damascus, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Latakia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Jan-17 World View -- Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan forced to apologize after being accused of blasphemy
  

****
**** Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor
****


Shaan Taseer, threatened with death for Christmas greeting (Pakistan Daily)

Shaan Taseer, the son of governor Salman Taseer, who was brutally
murdered in 2009 for questioning Pakistan's blasphemy laws, is
receiving death threats for, again, questioning Pakistan's blasphemy.

Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province in Pakistan,
was shot 28 times in broad daylight in an open marketplace
on January 4, 2011. The killer was his bodyguard,
Mumtaz Qadri. The motive, as described by Qadri, was to
punish Taseer for objecting to Pakistan's blasphemy laws,
and for calling for the release of a Christian woman, Asia Bibi,
who was in jail facing execution for violating the blasphemy
laws.

Pakistan's blasphemy laws are totally bizarre and are almost
completely meaningless except as a political weapon, similar
to sexual harassment laws in the United States, but with much
greater consequences. In Pakistan, a politically connected person
can manufacture a charge of blasphemy to have a political
enemy or hated former friend put into jail or even executed.

In the case of Asia Bibi, there was an altercation between her and
another woman in 2010. Bibi drank water from a Muslim cup (whatever
that is), and since the other woman was politically connected, Bibi
was charged with blasphemy and thrown into jail, scheduled for
execution.

Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province, spoke out in defense
of Bibi, and criticized the blasphemy laws. This triggered mass hate
rallies against Taseer and Bibi, with many religious clerics calling
for the immediate execution of Bibi. Finally, Mumtaz Qadri, Taseer's
bodyguard, shot and killed Taseer. He shot Taseer in the back 28
times just to make sure.

Qadri immediately became a national hero. The next day, when Qadri
was brought to court to face charges of having assassinated Taseer,
the other lawyers in the court showered him with roses. A statement
by 500 Pakistan religious scholars praised Qadri for keeping alive a
"tradition of 1,400 years in Islam" which they claim requires the
killing of anyone committing an act of blasphemy against Prophet
Mohammed.

Qadri was convicted of murdering Taseer, and much to everyone's
surprise, Qadri was put to death by hanging on February 29 of last
year. This triggered new violent protests across Pakistan. One
terror group, Sunni Tehreek, demanded the immediate execute of Asia
Bibi, and demanded that all five million members in Pakistan of the
Ahmadi branch of Islam be expelled from the country.

So now, on Christmas, the Shaan Taseer, the son of the murdered Salman
Taseer, posted a video message on his Facebook page, wishing a happy
holiday to Christians, and calling for prayers for Asia Bibi and for
others victimized by blasphemy laws.

One can reasonably question Shaan Taseer's sanity for doing this,
but if his objective was to be threatened with death, he got
his wish, and now says that he's received "very credible
death threats," adding:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They are sending me Mumtaz Qadri’s photos with
> messages that there are several Mumtaz Qadris waiting for
> me."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's expected that we will hear more about this story. Daily Pakistan and Reuters and Daily Pakistan (29-Feb-2016) and BBC

Related Articles

• Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated (05-Jan-2011)
  
  
• History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer (01-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Thousands protest violently over execution of murderer of blasphemy reformer (28-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** Pakistan's Imran Khan forced to apologize after being accused of blasphemy
****

Imran Khan was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time,
and was once voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by Australia
Magazine Oz. He turned to politics in the 1990s, and has become an
extremely colorful and extremely anti-American politician. He refers
to Pakistan's relationship with America as "client and master."

Now the same cleric that's threatening Shaan Taseer death for
blasphemy is also demanding apology from Imran Khan because one of
Khan's speeches contains "blasphemous sentences for the Prophet
Mohammed," adding:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the state fails to execute Imran Khan, it wouldn’t
> be a crime if any ‘aashiq-e-Rasool’ (lover of prophet P.B.U.H)
> kills him. He will be exempt from Qisas and Diyat (blood
> money)."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I've read several news stories trying to find out exactly what Khan is
accused of saying, but I can't find it anywhere. I suspect that
Pakistani editors are afraid to quote him, for fear of being targeted
for death themselves.

It's ironic that Khan is being charged with blasphemy, because he's
used charges of blasphemy against others when it was politically
convenient. At any rate, Khan apologized, saying, "It was a mistake,
and I assure that it won’t happen ever again." Daily Pakistan and Daily Pakistan

Related Articles

• Pakistan's army called to quell Imran Khan's anti-government protest (20-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Hope and change Pakistan candidate Imran Khan draws huge crowd in Karachi (26-Dec-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Shaan Taseer, Salman Taseer,
Mumtaz Qadri, Asia Bibi, Sunni Tehreek, Imran Khan

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Jan-17 World View -- Israel polarized over conviction of soldier for manslaughter

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel polarized over conviction of soldier for manslaughter
  
• Protesters clash with police to protest the verdict
  
• Comparison to Pakistan murder of Salman Taseer
  

****
**** Israel polarized over conviction of soldier for manslaughter
****


Screen grab from video of March 4, 2016. Israeli soldier reloads his gun just before shooting dead the Palestinian lying wounded and bleeding (AP)

Israelis appeared to be deeply polarized in reaction to a verdict
handed down by a military court on Wednesday convicting an Israeli
soldier, Elor Azaria, of manslaughter, for having shot and killed a
Palestinian who was lying on the ground wounded.

On March 24 of last year Abdel Fattah al-Sharif and Ramzi Qasrawi
Tamimi, two 21-year-old Palestinians, stabbed an Israeli soldier in
Hebron, a majority Palestinian city in the West Bank. Tamimi was shot
and killed immediately.

Al-Sharif was also shot. The shot did not kill him, but left him
wounded and bleeding, lying on the ground. Almost 15 minutes later,
one of the soldiers, Elor Azaria, shot al-Sharif in the head, killing
him. The entire situation was videoed, and the video was posted on
the internet and went viral.

In Wednesday's court hearing before three military judges in the
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). The lead judge, IDF Col. Maya Heller,
spent almost three hours reading the decision that concluded with a
conviction on a charge of manslaughter. Azaria had claimed in his
defense that he felt he was in danger because al-Sharif might be
wearing a concealed explosive vest. The judges rejected that claim,
and pointed to the testimony of Azaria's friend, who testified that
Azaria originally said Sharif needed to be killed out of revenge for
stabbing a fellow soldier. 24-Mar-2016 and Jerusalem Post

Related Articles

• Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian (02-Apr-2016)
  

****
**** Protesters clash with police to protest the verdict
****

Some 400 protesters clashed with police to protest the guilty verdict.
One protester wore a shirt saying, "The people of Israel don't abandon
a soldier during battle." Others referred to him as a hero.

A number of protesters threatened violence by chanting, "Gadi, Gadi
beware, Rabin's looking for a friend." The protesters were
threatening to assassinate IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Yitzhak
Rabin was prime minister of Israel until November 4, 1995, when he was
shot dead by an Israeli nationalist who opposed Rabin's support of a
peace treaty with the Palestinians.

Palestinian journalist Ali Abunimah said that Palestinians don't
expect anything to change as a result of the verdict:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The verdict is] divisive in Israel because there is
> a widespread view that Israeli soldiers should be able to kill
> Palestinians with complete impunity. ,,,
>
> Thousands of Palestinians have been killed in the past 15 years by
> the Israeli army and there has been no accountability. I think,
> if you ask practically any Palestinian, they will tell you that
> even though there was a guilty verdict in this case, in all
> likelihood he will receive a very light sentence."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The sentence will be handed down on January 15. The maximum sentence
that Azaria could receive for manslaughter is 20 years. However,
because of the circumstances -- al-Sharif had just stabbed an Israeli
soldier before being shot -- it's expected that the sentence will be
considerably lighter than 20 years. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
has asked the military to grant Azaria a pardon. Ynet and
Radio France Internationale

****
**** Comparison to Pakistan murder of Salman Taseer
****

As we described yesterday,
Mumtaz
Qadri was showered with roses and treated as a hero in 2011 after
brutally murdering Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab
province.

Elor Azaria was also treated as a hero after murdering a wounded
Palestinian who lay bleeding.

The circumstances are different in that the Palestinian had just
stabbed another soldier. But what both cases have in common is that
they both show how polarized societies around the world have become in
this generational Crisis era.

As I've been saying for several years, nationalism, xenophobia and
racism have been growing in countries around the world. Those who
suffered the horrors of World War II and survived realized that
nationalism, xenophobia and racism had been the core reasons for the
war, and vowed to make sure that they were permanently extinguished.
But now, with the survivors of WW II almost gone, and young
generations having grown up after WW II not understanding the dangers,
nationalism, xenophobia and racism are returning and are a strong as
ever. Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is headed for a
new world war, the worst war in world history, and the rise of
nationalism, xenophobia and racism is one of the reasons that war
occur. Vice News

Related Articles

• Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor (04-Jan-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, West Bank, Hebron, Elor Azaria,
Abdel Fattah al-Sharif, Ramzi Qasrawi Tamimi,
Maya Heller, Gadi Eisenkot, Yitzhak Rabin,
Ali Abunimah, Pakistan, Salman Taseer, Mumtaz Qadri

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Jan-17 World View -- New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R)
  
• Central African Republic crisis war continues to spin out of control
  

****
**** New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R)
****


A UN convoy with Moroccan peacekeepers like this one was attacked on Wednesday

The Central African Republic (CAR) has been riven since 2013 by a
civil war mainly between the Muslim Séléka militias and the Christian
anti-Balaka militias. However, there are numerous other ethnic
militias, including vigilante groups made up of nomadic, predominantly
Muslim Fulani herders, as well as others specializing in highway
robbery. All of these groups have been guilty of massacres, rapes,
scorched earth attacks, and other atrocities, often in revenge for
similar attacks by a militia on the other side.

One of the Muslim Fulani herder groups, the Peul tribe, has emerged as
a relative new militia group inflicting horrors on civilians in the
northwest of CAR, particularly near the borders of Cameroon and Chad.
Although they have been mainly allied with the Muslim Séléka militias,
fighting against the Christian anti-Balakas, they also claim on
occasion to have fought against Séléka militias for the protection of
their own Peul tribe.

The Peul armed militia is calling itself "Return, Reclamation,
Rehabilitation" or "3R". The group appeared in December 2015, and
throughout 2016 they burned down villages, causing tens of thousands
of civilians to lose their homes. They've killed and raped civilians,
and committed other atrocities.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) conducted interviews in November, and
documented numerous atrocities and murders. One 30-year-old woman
said that 3R fighters broke into her home:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"One said, “Where is your husband?” I said that he was
> not there. ... One of them cocked his gun and pointed it at me and
> said, “We are going to have sex with you.” He threw me on the
> ground and [one of them] raped me. Another was waiting for his
> turn, but there was shooting outside while the first one was
> finishing, so when he was done they both left. ... [M]y two
> younger children were right beside me, crying."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I wish that I could tell you, Dear Reader, that this kind of atrocity
was rare, but it's common fare during a generational crisis war, such
as the war in Central African Republic. Rape and extermination of
opponents is part of the human DNA, and all people of all races and
religions are susceptible, often in a cycle of escalating tit-for-tat
revenge. Human Rights Watch and Reuters

Related Articles

• Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge (20-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers (11-Oct-2014)
  

****
**** Central African Republic crisis war continues to spin out of control
****

On Wednesday, a convoy of United Nations peacekeepers in Central
African Republic near the Cameroon border was attacked unknown
assailants who killed two Moroccan peacekeepers and then escaped.
It's not known whether the attackers were from the 3R militias, but
this attack shows that the UN peacekeepers have almost no control in
the country outside the capital city Bangui.

A month ago, Ban Ki-moon, the outgoing Secretary-General of the United
Nations, said that he was "deeply concerned over renewed violence last
week in the Central African Republic." A UN Special Adviser Adama
Dieng added, "Given the country’s recent history, this kind of
targeted violence is extremely dangerous and must be stopped."

It's good to hear UN officials making the hard-hitting statements,
which are sure to convince both the Muslims and the Christians in CAR
to put down their weapons, because other actions by the UN have been
useless, and in a sense may have made things worse.

After a coup in March 2013, Muslim Séléka militias began committing
atrocities, particularly targeting the Christians. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Séléka
militias.

The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Séléka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-Balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Sélékas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.

The French peacekeepers were supposed to remain in CAR for just six
months, until a United Nations force could take over. However, they
remained in CAR for much longer than six months, and their withdrawal
was only announced in October of last year, after several years of
almost total failure. In addition, some of the French peacekeepers
were charged with raping some of the CAR civilians that they were
supposed to be protection. There is now a UN peacekeeping force of
12,500 troops known as MINUSCA, but as Wednesday's attack illustrates,
it hasn't been any more successful.

Actually, I've written about this many times in the last four years.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new
crisis civil war has already started.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a generational crisis
war cannot be stopped by "peacekeeping troops." It begins when the
traumatized survivors of the previous crisis war are no longer around,
and are no longer able to prevent the younger generations from
starting another crisis war. Massacres and atrocities by both (or
all) sides continue to grow and worsen on a tit-for-tat basis, usually
for five years or more, until there's an "explosive climax," some
genocidal massacre that's so horrific that it brings the war to an
end, and causes the traumatized survivors, both winners and losers, to
vow that they will never let such a war occur again.

UN peacekeeping forces have been more or less successful in minimizing
the violence in one city, the capital city Bangui, but everything
outside of Bangui is completely lawless, and completely out of control
of the peacekeepers. The rise of the 3R militias, and the new
atrocities that it's perpetrating show how far the CAR civil war has
yet to go. United Nations
and International Business Times and RFI

Related Articles

• France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows (01-Nov-2016)
  
  
• France says Central African Republic has totally collapsed (11-Apr-2014)
  
  
• France reverts to neo-colonialism, returns to Central African Republic (06-Dec-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui,
Séléka, anti-Balaka, Fulani, Peul, Cameroon, Chad,
Return - Reclamation - Rehabilitation, 3R, Human Rights Watch,
Ban Ki-moon, Adama Dieng, France, French Foreign Legion, MINUSCA,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Jan-17 World View -- The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19
  
• Congo's president Joseph Kabila refuses to step down after losing election
  

****
**** The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19
****


The Gambia's president Yahya Jammeh (Reuters)

The Gambia's president Yahya Jammeh is joining the ranks of national
leaders, mostly African, who refuse to give up power after their terms
are up, violating their national constitutions, and inflicting
violence by the country's armies and security forces on any opposition
figures that protest.

Yahya Jammeh came to power through a military coup in 1994. Jammeh's
reign was authoritarian, intolerant and violent, with executions of
political opponents. There were subsequent elections, and Jammeh
always won them, but suspicions were great that Jammeh had rigged the
elections.

So it was with some surprise that Jammeh lost the recent presidential
election last month on December 1 to Adama Barrow, a businessman.

An even more shocking event occurred: Jammeh called Barrow and
conceded the election, congratulating Barrow on his victory. Jammeh
said that Barrow would become president on January 19, as called for
in the constitution. This concession caused dancing in the streets in
the capital city Banjul, and enormous relief in the international
community, particularly among The Gambia's neighbors in West Africa.

A week later, Jammeh reneged on his concession, declared that the
election had been a fraud, and said that there would have to be a new
election.

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States, with 15
member states: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte D'ivoire, The
Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

ECOWAS is meeting on Saturday to decide what to do. Senegal in
particular has vowed that ECOWAS must do all it can to enforce an
orderly succession of power on January 19, and has put forces on
alert.

In a New Year's statement on January 1, Jammeh called the ECOWAS
statement a "declaration of war":

> [indent]<QUOTE>"‘‘What is clearly incontrovertible is the decision of
> ECOWAS to implement the results of the December 1st 2016 election
> results by whatever means possible. It is totally illegal as it
> violates the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs
> of member states, which is an entrenched clause in the ECOWAS
> treaty.
>
> It is in effect a declaration of war and an insult to our
> constitution. It is therefore absolutely unacceptable. This
> blatant, impartial and one-dimensional approach clearly indicates
> that the role of ECOWAS is not predicated on the pursuit of
> justice in the resolution of this stalemate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to Alexander Yearsley, Managing Director of Martello Risk,
with 20 years of experience conducting field and forensic
investigations across Africa, Jammeh is recruiting mercenaries to
fight in a possible with ECOWAS. Yearsley refers to Charles Taylor,
the former dictator of Liberia, who was convicted of war crimes during
the Sierra Leone civil war for terror, murder and rape. Yearsley says
that the same people who fought for and against Charles Taylor are now
being recruited as mercenaries by Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia (my
transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"From what we're being told by people who are
> attending some of these recruitment meetings, a senior figure who
> used to be in the Taylor fighting setup - they will phone their
> own contacts, their networks, and they will explain the situation,
> how much money will be offered on a daily rate, what fighters they
> need. And they're recruiting across the boards - their former
> enemies - they are happy down differences and for $100 a day, they
> will be getting some very experienced fighters that know how to
> operate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Yearsley's claims are supported by a former Liberian army commanded
who used to fight for Charles Taylor: "Jammeh is ready to fight to the
teeth and spend money to stay in power." Reuters and Africa News and Jollof News (The Gambia) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Congo's president Joseph Kabila refuses to step down after losing election
****

Joseph Kabila became president of the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC) in 2001, when his father was assassinated. He's been reelected
to office, but his final term in office ended last month on December
19.

Joseph Kabila pulled a stunt that can only be described as
mind-boggling. He claims that he can't step down because there
haven't been any elections to select a president to replace him.
There were supposed to be elections in November but they weren't held.
His political opponents said that they weren't held because Kabila
refused to budget the money to hold the elections.

So that's the situation. He'll do everything he can to prevent
elections from being held, and so he won't have to step down because
there's no replacement.

African leaders are always complaining the Europeans and Americans
don't take them seriously, but they have only themselves to blame when
you see this kind of nonsense occurring almost every week. Whether in
Zimbabwe, Burundi, South Sudan, or The Gambia -- and let's not forge
Syria, which is not an African country -- leaders use everything from
torture and rape and jailing to wholesale genocide to stay in power.

In DRC last month, there was a threat of civil war, but the Catholic
Church intervened and brokered an agreement: Elections will be held in
December of 2017 to choose Kabila's successor, and this time, Kabila
will really, really, really, really have to step down. This farcical
agreement was signed by members of Kabila's government, but it wasn't
even signed by Kabila himself. All Africa and
Daily News (Zimbabwe)

Related Articles

• Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide (13-Oct-2016)
  
  
• South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence (24-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, Adama Barrow,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, Senegal,
Alexander Yearsley, Liberia, Charles Taylor,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Joseph Kabila,
Zimbabwe, Burundi, South Sudan, Syria

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Jan-17 World View -- Violent protests in Sri Lanka over China's takeover of Hambantota seaport

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's hospitals run out of beds as Red Cross declares NHS in 'humanitarian crisis'
  
• Violent protests in Sri Lanka over China's takeover of Hambantota seaport
  

****
**** Britain's hospitals run out of beds as Red Cross declares NHS in 'humanitarian crisis'
****


About 6,000 patients per week are being left in ambulances because the hospital is too crowded to admit them (Evening Standard)

The British Red Cross is declaring the National Health Service (NHS)
to be in "humanitarian crisis," because 6,000 patients per week are
being left in ambulances outside of hospitals that have run out of
beds. When patients are left in ambulances, then the ambulances can
no longer be used to transport new patients in medical emergencies.
So the NHS has asked the Red Cross to help out by providing volunteers
and use Land Rovers to transport patients.

Red Cross chief Mike Adamson said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The British Red Cross is on the front line,
> responding to the humanitarian crisis in our hospital and
> ambulance services across the country.
>
> We have been called in to support the NHS and help get people home
> from hospital and free up much-needed beds.
>
> This means deploying our team of emergency volunteers and even
> calling on our partner Land Rover to lend vehicles to transport
> patients and get the system moving.
>
> We call on the UK government to allocate immediate funding to
> stabilize the current system and set out plans towards creating a
> sustainable funding settlement for the future."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Not surprisingly, a politician like Adamson is simply calling for more
money. I've been writing about the NHS for years, and the problem is
that there's no more money.

As we reported a year ago, Britain's National Health Service (NHS) is
facing an existential crisis, with a huge and accelerating deficit
expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) by 2020.

The system is corrupt, with doctors falsifying records, claiming for
work that was never done, or putting in for bogus overtime. Dentistry
services are so bad that people are buying "do-it-yourself (DIY)
dentistry kits" to take care of their whole families, as was done
centuries ago.

In desperation to save money, many hospitals have had bed cuts, or
have closed their Accident & Emergency departments (known in America
as Emergency Rooms). Many maternity units have also been targeted for
closure.

One of the biggest farces of the 2016 was perpetrated by the "Leave
European Union" camp of the Brexit campaign. They promised that if
the UK left the EU, then £350m-a-week that is currently being sent to
Brussels would not be invested in the NHS. It was a total lie, and it
was retracted soon after the referendum passed, but it's typical of
the lies we hear from politicians on a daily basis.

It would be nice if it were possible to give free health care to
everyone, but it isn't. In America, both the Veterans Administration
and Obamacare are financial disasters. At least the NHS was designed
carefully enough that it was financially healthy for fifty years of
its life, but Obamacare was so poorly designed that it's a financial
disaster within five years of its life. Jonathan Gruber said that
Obamacare passed because of "the stupidity of the American voter," and
that same stupidity is continuing, in both America and Britain.
London Evening Standard and Reuters and British Red Cross and Guardian (London, 10-Sep-2016)

Related Articles

• Britain's National Health Service (NHS) forced to close emergency rooms (14-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Britain's National Health Service (NHS) faces existential financial crisis (05-Aug-2015)
  
  
• History of President Richard Nixon's Wage-Price Controls (5-Jul-13)
  
  
• Obama's health plan, a proposal of economic insanity (25-July-2009)
  

****
**** Violent protests in Sri Lanka over China's takeover of Hambantota seaport
****

Thousands of Sri Lanka's Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters
held demonstrations on Saturday that turned violent, protesting
China's takeover of Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport by the Chinese in
repayment of a debt to the Chinese incurred by the government.

In 2009, China invested $1.2 billion in the port as part of its
"string of pearls" strategy to surround India. Sri Lanka had expected
to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the slowdown
in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years has meant
that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt.

Now Sri Lanka's government has been forced to give China a 99-year
lease to take over the port. In addition, China will lease 15,000
acres in the region for an industrial zone for Chinese factories.
China is expected to invest another $5 billion in Sri Lanka for
industrial development.

At least 21 people were injured on Saturday in violent clashes between
government supporters versus those opposed to the plan, the latter led
by Buddhist monks. The two groups threw rocks at each other, and
police responded with water cannon.

Opponents of the plan say that thousands of people will lose their
homes because of the project. They say that China will establish a
"Chinese colony" on Sri Lankan soil that will grow and can never be
removed.

Supporters of the plan say that China will invest $5 billion in the
region, and the new industries will generation 100,000 new jobs.

There are other international implications. China will have
responsibility for security at the port, which means that it the port
will host the Chinese military, including warships and submarines.

China already has similar seaports in Myanmar, Bangladesh and
Pakistan, and India is concerned that it's being surrounded by China's
military and warships. Daily Mirror (Sri Lanka) and AP and News First (Sri Lanka) and BBC

Related Articles

• China to sell eight advanced submarines to Pakistan, encircling India (04-Apr-2015)
  
  
• China extends its military buildup with Pakistan (27-Apr-2015)
  
  
• India deploying 'submarine killer' planes to counter China's submarines (27-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils (14-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, National Health Service, NHS,
British Red Cross, Mike Adamson, Brexit,
Veterans Administration, Obamacare, Jonathan Gruber
Sri Lanka, China, Hambantota, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Jan-17 World View -- Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82
  
• Is Rafsanjani's death a victory for Iran's hardliners?
  

****
**** Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82
****


Hashemi Rafsanjani (L) shares a laugh with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, under a photo of the original Supreme Leader, Rouhollah Khomeini. All three fought together in the 1979 revolution.

Iran is mourning the death of 82 year old Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, born in 1934, and a key figure in Iran's Great Islamic
revolution of 1979. He was jailed several times by the Shah of Iran
during the 1960s-70s for his political activism, and then after the
revolution he became the second most powerful man in Iran, behind
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, who ruled Iran as Supreme Leader until
his death in 1989.

Khomeini's chosen successor was Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the
current Supreme Leader. After Rafsanjani was passed over for Supreme
Leader, his star began to fade, although he was elected to the
presidency from 1989 to 1997.

Politicians in Iran are generally categorized into three groups:

• At one extreme are the extremely hard-line "principlists," who
  insist on adhering to the "principles" of the 1979 Great Islamic
  Revolution. Khamenei and the other old geezer survivors of the 1979
  revolution are ususally principlists. Generally, they represent the
  older generation, the survivors of the 1979 revolution and the
  Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. They impose strict social laws, such as
  requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in
  public, no street music in public, and so forth. Many are opposed to
  the nuclear deal, and want to resume nuclear weapons development.
  Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also in this group.
  
  
• At the other extreme are the "reformists," who are usually members
  of the younger generations that grew up after the revolution. They
  are willing to accept the religious precepts of the revolution, but
  they are demanding that the social restrictions like those described
  above be reversed. Internationally, they can be described as
  pro-Western and even pro-American. They like Western clothes and
  music, and they have nothing against Israel. However, some
  anti-Americanism is increasing because they believe that America has
  reneged on its promises to remove all sanctions after agreement was
  reached on the nuclear deal.
  
  
• In the middle are the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often
  as hardline as the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual
  reforms. Internationally, they are opposed to Western and American
  values, but they believe that it's necessary to make some minimal
  concessions, as necessary, to make Iran less isolated. Rafsanjani was
  a moderate, and so is Iran's president Hassan Rouhani.

There was a serious split between Rafsanjani and Khamenei after the
2009 presidential elections, when young people were protesting, and
there was blood running in the streets because Iran's security forces
were massacring students and other protesters. Khamenei wanted the
security forces to be completely unleashed, so they could kill,
torture, rape, jail and bash anyone they wanted, with impunity.
Rafsanjani wanted to permit peaceful protests, and wanted the jailed
protesters to be released. As a result of the split between
Rafsanjani and Khamenei, two of Rafsanjani's children were jailed on
separate charges. Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, got herself
into even more legal trouble while on leave from prison by visiting a
leader of Iran's persecuted Bahai religious minority. Mehr News (Tehran) and BBC (28-May-2016)

Related Articles

• As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  

****
**** Is Rafsanjani's death a victory for Iran's hardliners?
****

Many analysts are calling Rafsanjani's death a victory for Khamenei
and the hardline principlists, because he will no longer be able to
exert moderating pressure on them. That's one way of looking at the
situation.

The other way of looking at it is that it's a victory for the young
reformists, because he will no longer be able to exert a moderating
pressure on them. In other words, in this view Rafsanjani was a
powerful buffer between the two extremes, and without him they will
both be free to pursue more radical policies. His death might
even be the trigger for an Awakening era climax.

Generational Dynamics cannot predict short-term politics, but in many
cases it can predict long-term trends, and in this case the long-term
trend is clear. The old hardline geezers are dying off, and the young
reformists are growing in number and gaining power.

As I've pointed out many times, Iranian college students started
holding pro-Western and pro-American protests in the late 1990s, and
continuing into the 2000s. These protests were quashed by Khamenei,
who ordered the security forces to bash any students that expressed
any opposition opinions.

But by the year 2017, those students are now 30-40 years old, and
they're increasingly in positions of power, making reformist decisions
and implementing reformist policies. And by the way, this is also
true within the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC).

By contrast, the old geezer hardliners are dying off or are becoming
senile, and are less and less able to exert decisions as they used to.
Rafsanjani was a moderate and a pragmatist, but he was also
well-respected by everyone, and could influence moderation in both
extremes. Without his moderating influence, we can expect the
generational differences between the reformists and the principlists.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, characterized
by a "generation gap," and a generational clash between the hardline
survivors of the last generational crisis war (WW II in America's
case) and the generations growing up after that war. This political
clash almost always ends up in a victory for the younger generation,
as the older generation retires and dies off. In America, the
Awakening era climax was the resignation of Richard Nixon, which
signaled a victory of the Boomers over the GI and Silent generations
that had survived WW II. In Iran, no such Awakening era climax has
not yet occurred, but it's 100% certain that it's coming.

As I've been writing for years, Iran, will be the West's allies during
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Generational
Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war,
the US, Japan, India, Iran and Russia will be allied again China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Mehr News and Guardian (London)


Related Articles

• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement (09-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Shah of Iran,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hassan Rouhani, Faezeh Hashemi, Bahai,
principlists, moderates, reformists

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Jan-17 World View -- Thousands of migrants trapped in deep freeze temperatures in Greece and Balkans

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of migrants risk freezing to death as deep freeze spreads across Europe
  
• Migrants in eastern Europe trapped in deep freeze temperatures
  
• European Commission resettlement plan appears to be a disaster
  

****
**** Thousands of migrants risk freezing to death as deep freeze spreads across Europe
****


Screen grab from viral video showing migrant tents on Lesvos island

Europe's migrant crisis has been mostly out of news since March 18 of
last year, when the EU and Turkey signed their migrant deal, in which
Turkey agreed to police the flow of migrants from Turkey across the
Aegean Sea to Greece.

Even though it's been out of the news, severe problems still remain.
There are about 60,000 migrants still in Greece. When migrants travel
from Turkey across the Aegean Sea, they usually stop at Greece's
Lesvos Island, because it's close to Turkey, and because they've been
welcomed by the Lesvians in the past. There are over 6,000 migrants
at the Moria refugee camp on Lesvos Island, far over its capacity of
3,500, and the number is still increasing by a few dozen every day,
since the Turkey blockade isn't completely effective. About 1,000 are
living in tents covered with snow.

There are 15,600 migrants on all the Greek islands put together. Last
week, Greece's Migration Minister Yiannis Mouzalas said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There are no refugees or migrants living in the cold
> anymore. We successfully completed the procedures for
> overwintering."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So a volunteer worker posted a video showing migrants on Lesvos living
in extremely harsh conditions, with no heat and their tents buckling
under the heavy snow.

European Commission spokeswoman Natasha Bertaud called the situation
"untenable," but that the Commission was ready to help:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We can no more dictate policy in Greece than we can
> in any other member state.
>
> I have to be quite clear here, the commission is aware that the
> situation is untenable but we also have to be clear as I was
> saying that ensuring adequate reception conditions in Greece is a
> responsibility of Greek authorities. ...
>
> We are pursuing a dual strategy of political pressure and
> financial and technical support to the Greek authorities to
> improve the situation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

She explained that by "political pressure," she meant a continued
series of recommendations by the EC in its reports to Greece.
Greek Reporter and EU Observer and EurActiv

Related Articles

• EU desperation continues on second day of EU-Turkey refugee deal (22-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup (18-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Migrants in eastern Europe trapped in deep freeze temperatures
****

When the so-called "Balkan route" was closed to migrants last year, it
left thousands of them stranded. More than 7,500 people are currently
stranded in Serbia, living in overcrowded camps and informal
settlements. In Belgrade, around 2,000 young people, mainly from
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Syria are currently sleeping in
abandoned buildings in the city center, while temperatures plummet to
as low as -20°C (-4°F). Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and Deutsche Welle and Reuters

Related Articles

• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Hungary's Viktor Orbán defeated in attempt to ban refugee quotas (09-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Hungary's PM tells Cameron: 'Hungarians in UK aren’t parasites' (11-Jan-2016)
  

****
**** European Commission resettlement plan appears to be a disaster
****

During the first week of 2017, 373 refugees and migrants crossed the
sea from Turkey to Greece, an average of 53 per day. Most arrivals
were from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. Most arrived on the islands
Chios and Lesvos.

During the same week, 1,080 people arrived by sea to Italy, mostly as
a result of Italian and European search and rescue operations in the
Mediterranean Sea. Most arrivals were from Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea,
Côte d’Ivoire, and Gambia, with lesser numbers from . Senegal, Mali,
Sudan, Somalia and Bangladesh.

In September 2015, the European Commission adopted an "emergency
relocation scheme," whereby 160,000 refugees, mostly in Greece and
Italy, were supposed to be relocated to other EU countries.

However, the program has been something of a disaster. Out of the
160,000, only 8162 people were relocated since the beginning of the
scheme. Austria, Denmark, Hungary and Poland have refused to take any
migrants at all. The Czech Republic has taken 12, and Slovakia has
taken 9.

With the rise of far-right, anti-migrant and even anti-EU populism
growing in Europe, it seems unlikely that any of these problems will
be resolved soon. UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and European Commission (PDF) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

Related Articles

• In desperation, EU tries to overhaul its refugee asylum rules (07-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Bizarre EU-Turkey one-for-one refugee deal meets strong opposition (09-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Threats of retaliation abound as Europe's refugee crisis deepens (26-Feb-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Turkey, Lesvos Island, Aegean Sea,
Yiannis Mouzalas, Natasha Bertaud, Balkan route,
Serbia, Belgrade, Hungary, European Commission,
Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea,
Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Senegal, Mali,
Sudan, Somalia, Bangladesh, emergency relocation scheme

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Jan-17 World View -- China threatens Trump with 'revenge' over one-China policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen meets with Senator Cruz in Texas
  
• China threatens Trump with 'revenge' over one-China policy
  

****
**** Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen meets with Senator Cruz in Texas
****


Tsai Ing-wen (standing) meets with Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Sunday

Ignoring demands that the US forbid Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen
from making "transit stops" in Houston and San Francisco en
route to and from meetings with Central American leaders, Tsai met
with both US Senator Ted Cruz and Texas Governor Greg Abbott during a
stopover in Houston.

China's foreign ministry spokesman made this statement about the
visit:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I have taken note of relevant reports. I want to
> reiterate that we are firmly opposed to the Taiwan leader's
> contact with any US officials in any form and engagement in
> actions that disrupt and undermine China-US relations during the
> so-called transit. We once again urge relevant people from the US
> to abide by the one-China policy and the principles of the three
> Joint Communiqués, and cautiously handle Taiwan-related issues so
> as not to harm the overall interests of China-US relations and
> peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've said before, it really amazes me that the US is supposed to
bow to demands from China not to speak to or meet with people that
China tells us not to speak to or meet with, and yet we're supposed to
accept without question China's right to build military bases in the
South China Sea, in clear violation of international law as decided by
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague
in July of last year, while annexing other countries' territories as
Hitler did just prior to World War II.

Prior to the meeting, China's Consul General Li Qiangmin of Houston
sent a letter to Cruz:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"For U.S. leaders in administration and legislature,
> not to make any contact with Taiwan leaders nor send any
> implication of support of ‘Taiwan Independence’ are in the
> interests of China, the U.S. and the international community. So,
> dear Senator, I sincerely hope that you will neither meet, nor
> have any contact with Tsai during her upcoming visit to Houston,
> and continue to play a significant role in promoting mutual
> understanding and friendship between the two peoples of China and
> the U.S."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

After the meeting, Cruz issued a statement saying the US doesn't
dictate to China whom its leaders can meet with, and China should not
dictate to the US:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Shortly before our meeting, the Houston congressional
> delegation received a curious letter from the Chinese consulate
> asking members of Congress not to meet with President Tsai, and to
> uphold the ‘One-China policy’.
>
> The People’s Republic of China needs to understand that in America
> we make decisions about meeting with visitors for ourselves. This
> is not about the PRC. This is about the U.S. relationship with
> Taiwan, an ally we are legally bound to defend. The Chinese do
> not give us veto power over those with whom they meet. We will
> continue to meet with anyone, including the Taiwanese, as we see
> fit.
>
> The US-Taiwan relationship is not on the negotiating table. It is
> bound in statute and founded on common interests. I look forward
> to working with President Tsai to strengthen our
> partnership."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Governor Abbott said, "It was an honor to meet with President Tsai and
discuss how our two economies can expand upon our already prosperous
trade partnership." Houston Press and China's Foreign Ministry

Related Articles

• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  
  
• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** China threatens Trump with 'revenge' over one-China policy
****

The "One-China Policy" states that there is one China, not two, but
leaves ambiguous exactly what that means. Beijing interprets it to
mean that Taiwan is province of China, to be completely governed one
day by Beijing. Taiwan interprets it to mean that they are the
official government of all of China. By not speaking these
interpretations out loud, everyone is supposed to get along by saying
"there is only one China."

China's politicians have made it clear that they will use military
force against Taiwan and the United States if there is any threat that
Taiwan will declare independence. In 2005 Beijing passed an
"anti-secession law" requiring China to take military action even if
Taiwan's leadership simply makes plans or gives speeches about
independence. President Tsai has refused to confirm the "1992
consensus" which is the vehicle that reaffirms the One-China policy.

Under these circumstances, it's not surprising that China is becoming
increasingly belligerent towards Taiwan. Arguably, Taiwan has already
met the conditions set forth in the anti-secession law.

The reaction from China's Foreign Ministry, quoted above, states China
policy, but is fairly non-belligerent. However, an editorial in the
state run Global Times promises revenge if Donald Trump abandons the
one-China policy after taking office:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The US passed bills that allow serving officers to
> visit Taiwan, while Chinese fighter jets patrolled around Taiwan
> and China's aircraft carrier passed the island. It is widely
> expected that the mainland will impose further military
> pressure. Tsai needs to face the consequences for every
> provocative step she takes.
>
> Trump is yet to be inaugurated, and there is no need for Beijing
> to sacrifice bilateral ties for the sake of Taiwan. But in case he
> tears up the one-China policy after taking office, the mainland is
> fully prepared. Beijing would rather break ties with the US if
> necessary. We would like to see whether US voters will support
> their president to ruin Sino-US relations and destabilize the
> entire Asia-Pacific region.
>
> Beijing does not need to feel grateful to Trump for not meeting
> Tsai. The one-China policy is the basic principle reiterated in
> the three Sino-US joint Communiqués. It is also the foundation of
> the profound bilateral relationship. Sticking to this principle is
> not a capricious request by China upon US presidents, but an
> obligation of US presidents to maintain China-US relations and
> respect the existing order of the Asia-Pacific. If Trump reneges
> on the one-China policy after taking office, the Chinese people
> will demand the government to take revenge. There is no room for
> bargaining."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This article threatens to break relations with the US if Trump does
not reaffirm the one-China policy, and hints at unspecified military
action against Taiwan.

Trump has said that his administration will review the one-China
policy, but in view of the real possibility that China will end
diplomatic relations, I'm going to assume that Trump will adopt the
one-China policy, or some close variant.

But completely apart from anything the US administration does, it's
the attitude of the Taiwanese people that is most important. Time is
not on China's side, and Chinese officials know it, as the Taiwan's
population become more pro-independence every year. The Chinese
people are highly nationalistic with regard to Taiwan, and it won't be
too much longer before Chinese officials decide that time has run out.
Global Times (Beijing) and Xinhua

Related Articles

• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China (01-Jan-2017)
  
  
• China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, China,
Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, Li Qiangmin,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Anti-secession law

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Jan-17 World View -- Pakistan: Four secular anti-military activists vanish over the weekend

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan: Four secular anti-military activists vanish over the weekend
  
• Pakistan's army accused of dumping over 1,000 bodies in Balochistan
  

****
**** Pakistan: Four secular anti-military activists vanish over the weekend
****


Demonstrators in Pakistan rally to protest the abduction of Salam Haider and others

In separate incidents, four secular anti-military activists in
Pakistan have disappeared within the last few days, apparently
kidnapped by the army. All of them actively post on social media, to
the discomfort of the army.

Asim Saeed, who was abducted from his home in Lahore on Friday, and
Ahmad Waqas Goraya, who was abducted the same day, both help run the
Mochi Facebook page critical of the military.

Another man, Ahmed Raza Naseer, was taken from his family's
shop on Saturday. Naseer suffers from polio.

The disappearance on Saturday of Salman Haider, a lecturer at Fatima
Jinnah Women University, was brought all four abductions to national
attention. Haider frequently wrote about how troubled Pakistan's
society it, with government security forces targeting Shias and ethnic
Hazaras in Balochistan. Haider also wrote about other people whom the
army the abducted, and that perhaps angered the army the most.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has
called for country-wide protests against the abductions:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"HRCP is greatly alarmed by Waqas Goraya and Asim
> Saeed disappearing on January 4, Salman Haider on Friday and Ahmed
> Raza Naseer on Saturday. All four are known for airing their
> views, sometime critical of authority, extremism and intolerance,
> on social media.
>
> Pakistan has never been a particularly safe country for rights
> activists. Many have been killed, injured, abducted and threatened
> for their work... The events of the last week demonstrate that the
> dangers already extend to digital spaces. We cannot be sure if the
> four cases are connected but expect that would be worth looking
> into as well.
>
> Threats and violence have never deterred Pakistan’s activists from
> speaking their mind and flagging issues that conscious citizens
> must raise in a civilized society. We know that the events of the
> last few days, will not change that. At the same time, however,
> HRCP also implores the government to wake up to its obligation to
> provide a safe environment for human rights defenders and
> activists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The abductions seem to be working. In the last two days, several
activists have closed down their online accounts.

Last year, Haider wrote a poem about the abductions. The following is
a translated excerpt from the Urdu:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Now friends of my friends are going missing,
> Then it will be my friends, and then,
> It will be my file [of me missing] that
> my father will take to the courts."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Unfortunately, Haider's prediction came true on Saturday. Dawn (Pakistan) and Guardian (London) and The Diplomat

****
**** Pakistan's army accused of dumping over 1,000 bodies in Balochistan
****

According to Pakistan's Human Rights ministry, over 1000 dead bodies
of suspected armed separatists and political activists have been found
in Balochistan over the past six years.

The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) says it has recorded 1,200
cases of dumped bodies and there are many more it has not been able to
document. VBMP says that most of the bodies were activists who, one
day, were picked up by authorities and were never seen again.

However, Pakistan's government claims that they had nothing to do with
the killings. According to one provincial official: "There are
several explanations. Sometimes insurgents are killed in a gunfight
with law enforcement agencies but their bodies are found later.
Militant groups also fight among each other and don't bury their dead
fighters. Then there are tribal feuds, organized crime and drug
mafia." BBC
and International Business Times (London) and India Times

Related Articles

• Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor (04-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan (26-Oct-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan (24-Feb-2015)
  
  
• New report examines terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan (26-Apr-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Salman Haider,
Asim Saeed, Ahmad Waqas Goraya, Mochi Facebook page,
Ahmed Raza Naseer, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, HRCP,
Balochistan, Voice for Baloch Missing Persons, VBMP

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Jan-17 World View -- Peace conference to reunite Cyprus adjourns without a deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Peace conference to reunite Cyprus adjourns without a deal
  
• History of Cyprus suggests that there is little hope for permanent reunification
  

****
**** Peace conference to reunite Cyprus adjourns without a deal
****


A Turkish army tank passes through the Turkish section of Nicosia in 1974. (AP)

Negotiations in Geneva to reunite Cyprus ended on Thursday evening
without a deal, but with plans to resume after January 18.

Almost two years of peace talks between leaders of Greek side and the
Turkish side of the island of Cyprus have led to what Europe and
Turkey will be the final negotiations leading to a united Cyprus.

Cyprus has been bitterly divided since a 1974 war, with Greek Orthodox
Christian Greeks governing the south, and Muslim Turks governing the
north. The two sides are partitioned by a "no-man's land,"
a strip that stretches 112 miles across the entire island.

The capital city Nicosia is in the center of Cyprus and is
partitioned as well. While partitions of other cities,
including Beirut, Belfast and Berlin, have disappear in the last
few decades, the partition remains in Nicosia.

It's not known whether Thursday's negotiations brought the two
sides close together, but the two most difficult issues are
these:

• Security. There are 30,000 Turkish troops in northern Cyprus,
  to protect the Turkish population from the Greeks, a vestige of the
  1974 war. The Turks would like them to remain, but the Greeks would
  like them to be gone. At any rate, the question of protect the Greeks
  from the Turks and the Turks from the Greeks would have to be resolved
  for a unification deal.
  
  
• Right of Return. Many people were forced to flee across the
  "no-man's land" border during the 1974 war, and had to give up their
  homes. In most cases, it was Greeks that lost their homes in this
  way. Questions to be negotiated are whether people can reclaim their
  homes, or whether they should be compensated in some way.

According to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, the talks on
Thursday showed progress, but there is no "quick fix." Cyprus Mail and AP and Cyprus Mail

****
**** History of Cyprus suggests that there is little hope for permanent reunification
****

Because of its strategic location in the Mediterranean Sea, Cyprus has
been repeatedly conquered throughout history by different groups,
including the Greeks, the Assyrians, the Egyptians and the Persians.
It was annexed by the Ottoman Empire in 1571, but was conquered by
Britain in 1878 and annexed in 1914.

Cyprus gained independence from Britain in 1960 under a power-sharing
agreement between the Greeks and the Turks. Three countries --
Britain, Greece and Turkey -- would be responsible for
guaranteeing security in the new country.

Violence erupted soon after. In 1974, Greece's military junta backed
a coup against the president of Cyprus, leading to a civil war.
Turkey responded by invading northern Cyprus. About 165,000 Greek
Cypriots fled or were driven from the Turkish-occupied north, and
about 45,000 Turkish Cypriots left the south for the north.

Since ancient times, at least as far back as the time around 1200BC
that the face of Helen of Troy launched a thousand ships, Greece and
Turkey (Anatolia) have been at war repeatedly, in one of the most
violent ethnic fault lines in history. Turkey's greatest victory over
Greece occurred in 1453, when the Ottoman's conquered Constantinople
(Istanbul) and destroyed the Greek Byzantine Empire. None of these
wars has been forgotten by the participants. Guardian (London) and BBC

Related Articles

• Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean (26-Feb-2015)
  
  
• Russia seeks military air and naval bases in Cyprus (18-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Cost of Cyprus bailout explodes upward to 23 billion euros (12-Apr-2013)
  
  
• President George Bush talks about a 'Third Awakening,' but he has his history wrong (19-Sep-2006)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Nicosia,
António Guterres, Helen of Troy

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Jan-17 World View -- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus
  
• Israel's motive was probably to prevent weapons from reaching Hezbollah
  

****
**** Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus
****


Huge explosions could be seen above the buildings of Damascus

The Syrian army said that Israel has launched a missile strike on the
al-Mazzeh military airport west of Damascus early on Friday morning.
The army said it was a "flagrant attack" by Israel with the purpose of
aiding the "terrorist groups" in Syria. According to the army
statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Syrian army command and armed forces warn Israel of
> the repercussions of the flagrant attack and stresses its
> continued fight against (this) terrorism and amputate the arms of
> the perpetrators."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Syrian state television quoted the army as saying several rockets were
fired from an area near Lake Tiberias in northern Israel just after
midnight. The report said that the rockets landed in the military
compound of the airbase, causing explosions and a large fire. Other
reports were contradictory, saying that the Israeli attack was from
missiles launched from Israeli warplanes.

Syria says that there have been several such attacks in the past, and
that they all coincided with defeats for the armed terrorist groups in
Syria, especially Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), which recently
changed its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS, Front for the Conquest
of Syria). Syria said that the purpose of the attack was to "raise
morale" of the terrorist organizations who are attempting to overthrow
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Syria has sent letters to the United Nations demanding international
retaliation against Israel:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The new Israeli missile attack on Mazzeh military
> airport west of Damascus comes within a long series of Israeli
> attacks since the beginning of the terrorist war on the
> sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Syria which
> has been planned in the Israeli, French and British intelligence
> agencies and their agents in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and other
> countries that wanted to impose control and hegemony on Syria and
> the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Iran's media added to the charges by claiming that Israel was
attempting to prevent Syria's army from restoring water supplies to
Damascus. SANA (Syria) and
Jerusalem Post and Press TV (Tehran)

****
**** Israel's motive was probably to prevent weapons from reaching Hezbollah
****

As is their usual practice, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied
that the attack took place. Some analysts are saying that the large
explosions occurred because the target of the attacks was several
large weapons stores. Syria's army was using to those weapons to
attack rebels in Syria, but it's possible that Israel believed that
some of those weapons were to be transferred to Lebanon's Iran-backed
terrorist group Hezbollah.

Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in 2006 that largely ended in
stalemate. However, it's known that Iran has been supplying rockets
and other weapons to Hezbollah in preparation for the next war.
Israel has taken steps where possible to prevent other weapons from
reaching Hezbollah. Missiles and chemical weapons from Syria are
particular concerns.

In statements to Israel's parliament (Knesset) in December, Israel's
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman described Israel's policy in Syria:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Israel has no interest in intervening in the civil
> war in Syria. Our policies and our positions are very clear and
> are based on three red lines: we will not allow any harm to come
> to Israeli citizens, we will not allow any harm to the sovereignty
> of the State of Israel and we will not allow the smuggling of
> sophisticated weapons or chemical weapons from Syria to Lebanon
> for Hezbollah."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Hezbollah’s major arms supply route between Damascus and Lebanon's
border has been targeted on several occasions in recent years by
Israeli air strikes. This has included strikes on warehouses and
convoys of weapons. Reuters and Israel National News and Middle East Monitor

Related Articles

• Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Syria, al-Mazzeh military airport,
Russia, Iran, Bashar al-Assad, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Avigdor Liberman

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe