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Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability
CBS News' unique take:

Trump's first year

Quote:One year into Donald Trump's presidency, Americans feel more positive about the economy but not as good about the state of the country overall -- and the latter is closely tied to views of the president.

By a two to one margin, more say that the country is doing well economically than that it isn't. But three in four Americans say the country is divided, six in 10 don't have much confidence in the U.S. political system and six in 10 say racial tensions have increased. The president's strongest backers believe things are going well, but his opponents -- who have grown increasingly opposed to the president over the year -- say things are not. Overall, the number of Americans who say having Donald Trump as president makes them feel "pessimistic" is higher than it was a year ago.

[Image: tracker-better-off-1.jpg]

[Image: tracker-trump-support-trend.jpg]

[Image: tracker-four-groups.jpg]

So what are "believers", "conditionals", "curious", and "resisters"?

Quote:A year ago, this study began analyzing four groups: the strongest of Trump backers (whom the study labeled "believers"); another set of those who support the president on the condition that he delivers what they want (the "conditionals"); a group opposing the president for now but willing to back him if things change, (the curious) and those who are firmly opposed (whom the study labels the "resisters.")

Overall, the movement we have seen over the year is a slow shift away from Mr. Trump, and we have that movement across the four groups: the believers, the conditionals, the curious and the resisters.

My comment: nobody else seems to use this nomenclature, but this method says something.

[Image: tracker-trump-for-against.jpg]

Quote:The CBS News 2018 Nation Tracker is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,164 U.S. adults between January 10–12, 2018. All respondents were recontacted January 12–13, 2018 for two follow up questions about the President's recent comments on immigration, and 1,654 responded. The margin of error was +/-  2.6.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i

Trump approval rating in West Virginia (arguably one of the strongest R states in Presidential elections now):

Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48

Down from +21 in January 2017.

 Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19

The biggest deviation from the assumption that the 2020 election will be a 50-50 election that I have sen yet.

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;9]

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:


Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.   

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Twenty-three states with recent polls... now nearly half (46%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...

it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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