Generational Dynamics World View

[Marypoza]

(02-07-2020, 11:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Jan-2020 Amy Klobuchar claiming victory

(01-21-2020, 07:49 PM)Marypoza Wrote: >   Bernie/Tulsi 2020

Amy Klobuchar is claiming victory this evening.  Too bad.  She isn't
as hot as Tulsi Gabbard.

-- u mean 4 the dbate? She sure gave #Buttcheat a good spanking, but Bernie won the debate. & the  la caucuses

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea

(02-07-2020, 11:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > ** 24-Jan-2020 Amy Klobuchar claiming victory

(01-21-2020, 07:49 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > > Bernie/Tulsi 2020

> Amy Klobuchar is claiming victory this evening. Too bad. She
> isn't as hot as Tulsi Gabbard.

(02-09-2020, 05:27 AM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- u mean 4 the dbate? She sure gave #Buttcheat a good spanking,
> but Bernie won the debate. & the la caucuses

Re Buttigieg: "He's the old person's idea of what a young person
should be" -- NPR's Mara Liasson appearing on Fox News

[David Horn]

(02-09-2020, 12:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea

Re Buttigieg: "He's the old person's idea of what a young person
should be" -- NPR's Mara Liasson appearing on Fox News

Actually, he's the brilliant professor everyone wants to have, but no one really understands.  There's no question he's brilliant.  There's no question he's knowledgeable.  The only question is wisdom, and there, I tend to think he's a perfect Dwight Eisenhower for the next 1T … assuming we don't burn the place to ground in the interim.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus: The Big Clinical Iceberg

Christopher Smith of Cambridge University was interviewed on the BBC
about the global Wuhan coronavirus emergency and what he called "The
Big Clinical Iceberg."

The number of reported cases in China seems to have leveled off at the
high 3,000s per day, at least for the time being. If they have
leveled off, then it's because of extreme draconian measures taken by
the Chinese -- with millions of people effectively under house arrest
-- measures that would not be tolerable in any other country.

Outside of China, only 280 cases have been reported, in 24 countries.

It appears that the safest place in the world to be is Africa, since
there have been no reported cases there. But that's because no one is
being tested. If you don't look for cases, then you won't find any
cases. (And Smith didn't mention this, but Africa has a number of
Chinese enclaves, thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).)

Even in the UK, there's only one place where testing is done. If you
enter the country with cold symptoms, they'll ask you whether you've
been to China or eight other countries in the last 14 days, and if you
haven't, then they'll let you right through. No formal testing will
be done.

So he says that every other country is in the same state of denial
that China was in about six weeks ago. If there is even a small
outbreak somewhere, then it could spread very fast. The incubation
period is 14 days, and each person who has the disease spreads it to
3-4 other people. So a small outbreak could spread to a very large
outbreak very quickly.

That's why the 280 cases outside of China that have been reported may
be only the tip of a very big clinical iceberg.

The draconian measures that China is taking have done the rest of the
world a favor. Not only have those measures slowed the spread of the
disease within China, but also they've slowed the transmission of the
disease outside of China, and that has bought the rest of the world
some time, time to figure out how to mitigate the spread once it
starts.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Feb-2020 World View: Possible 'Super-spreader' contracted virus in Singapore

• How one 'super-spreader' spread virus around the world

An early example of the "clinical iceberg" described in the previous
article may have occurred in the form of a British man attending a
conference in Singapore from January 20-23.

He then visited a ski chalet in France in the French Alps, in Les
Contamines-Montjoie, near Megeve, from January 24 to 28, where he
infected at least seven other people.

Five Britons who shared the ski chalet with him were diagnosed over
the weekend, and hundreds of residents of the town are now undergoing
tests.

The "super-spreader" then returned to Briton on January 28, but during
the last five days, people in other sites in France and Spain who had
been visiting the same ski chalet have been diagnosed.

At least 40 cases of the virus have been confirmed in Singapore.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...-Alps.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...oss-europe

[Warren Dew]

(02-09-2020, 05:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The number of reported cases in China seems to have leveled off at the
high 3,000s per day, at least for the time being.  If they have
leveled off, then it's because of extreme draconian measures taken by
the Chinese -- with millions of people effectively under house arrest
-- measures that would not be tolerable in any other country.

Possibly.  There are a couple other possibilities.  Maybe no more than 3000 people a day can be tested, or maybe no more than 3000 people can be admitted for treatment and they limit testing to limit admissions.  Or maybe all 5000000 in Wuhan have already gotten it and most of them didn't have sufficiently severe symptoms even to justify testing.  If the incidence is really leveling off, we should see the death rate level off within a week or so.

Quote:The draconian measures that China is taking have done the rest of the
world a favor.  Not only have those measures slowed the spread of the
disease within China, but also they've slowed the transmission of the
disease outside of China, and that has bought the rest of the world
some time, time to figure out how to mitigate the spread once it
starts.

... provided we can make greater strides in epidemiology and disease control over the next few weeks than we have in the past century.

I suppose we could ramp up production of the test kits and face masks.  Other than that, the best we can probably do is to tell people to stay home from school or work if they have cold or flu symptoms - which would probably be a good policy even without the Wuhan coronavirus.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Feb-2020 World View: China buying us time

(02-10-2020, 01:18 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > ... provided we can make greater strides in epidemiology and
> disease control over the next few weeks than we have in the past
> century.

Quote:> Christopher Smith: "What the Chinese are doing is
> buying us all time. By holding the tide of this back and the
> spread of this back it's slowing down the rate at which it ramps
> up in certainly that geography, but in connected geographies. And
> the more time we have, the more we can learn about this thing.
> The more we learn about this thing, the more we know how to
> mitigate it. And that would include things like, will a vaccine
> work? Who's vulnerable to this? Who do we need to focus our
> efforts and our attention on to protect them, because they may be
> at higher risk than other people, for example. Pregnant women,
> for example, stand out as people who were very, very vulnerable in
> the SARS epidemic. We would therefore want to consider their
> welfare ahead of all others. We've learned that through the
> experience, and the more time we have, the more we can learn, and
> the better prepared we'll be."

[Warren Dew]

I'm sure with people like Christopher Smith working on it, emphasizing protection of pregnant women when a large majority of deaths have been among people over 60, we can waste all the time China buys us.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Feb-2020 World View: Dozens more people test positive on Diamond Princess cruise ship

• Cruise ship Diamond Princess quarantined off Yokohama, Japan

On Monday, 66 more people aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship,
quaranteed off Yokohama, tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus.

That almost doubles the known cases, bringing the total to 136. There
are 3,600 people aboard the cruise ship. But only 336 have been
tested so far. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Monday
that it might be difficult to test everyone aboard the ship.

The Diamond Princess departed Yokohama on January 20 and returned on
February 3 after visiting Kagoshima, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan and
Okinawa. The ship was put under quarantine on February 3. The
quarantine is scheduled to end on February 19, but the surge in new
cases puts that date in doubt.

Another cruise ship, the U.S.-operated Ocean Dream, is set to dock at
Yokohama on Saturday and Kobe on Sunday.


-- Coronavirus infection tally on Diamond Princess hits 136 as tests
for all passengers eyed
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/0...kIGPiN7l_A
(Japan Times, 10-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

Ooooh! Ooooh! Ooooh! Tulsi Gabbard is next up on Hannity, in
a couple of minutes.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
  
• Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
  

****
**** Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
****


Turkish soldiers gather in Idlib, Syria (AFP)

Turkey and Syria appear close to war, as the forces of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad have begun targeting and killing Turkish
soldiers in Turkey's "observation posts" in Idlib province. ( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib"
)

According to a statement by Turkey's defense ministry, five Turkish
soldiers were killed and five more wounded by "the regime's intense
artillery fire [that] targeted our elements sent as reinforcement to
the region with an aim to prevent clashes in Idlib, ensure our border
security and stop migration and human tragedy."

Turkey said it carried out sweeping retaliation, hitting 115 Syrian
targets with strikes that killed dozens of Syrian troops, three Syrian
tanks, two artillery unites, and a military helicopter.

Turkey has established 12 observation posts, as I described in
my last article. Those observations posts were under a September 18, 2018,
agreement in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Turkey's president
Tayyip Recep Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Bashar al-Assad was not party to the agreement.

Russia's job would be to hold back al-Assad from attacking civilians
in Idlib. Turkey's job would be to separate out the "terrorists" from
the civilians, so that al-Assad could kill the "terrorists" without
harming the civilians. The problem is that al-Assad considers all of
the Sunni Arabs in Idlib to be "terrorists," cockroaches to be
exterminated by any means as quickly as possible.

According to Turkish media, al-Assad began attacking Turkish forces in
the observation posts early last year, with attacks reported on April
29, May 4, May 12, May 31, June 8, June 27 and August 19. Erdogan
threatened retaliation each time, but took no action. Now the
Turks are retaliating.

****
**** Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
****

Bashar al-Assad is a sociopathic monster and war criminal who wants to
complete the work begun by his father, Hafez al-Assad, in exterminating
the Sunni Arabs in Syria and replacing as many of them as possible with
Alawites and Shia Muslims.

Al-Assad's horrors have been well documented. In 2014, an al-Assad
defector supplied 55,000 photos of about 11,000 men whom al-Assad had
tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation,
and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale.
Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure
each act was photographed. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria"
)

Throughout my lifetime, I've heard people describe the Holocaust and
say, "Never again!" But al-Assad is a man who gets obvious pleasure
from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be
cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest
genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao
Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of
destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to
satisfy his psychopathy.

So there's no chance at all that al-Assad will agree to any
"political solutions." He will not stop until he's satisfied that
his father's enemies have been completely exterminated.
And there are already about a million displaced people in Idlib
crowded along the border with Turkey.

The situation is intolerable for Turkey. Erdogan cannot simply
"observe" as al-Assad slaughters many Sunni Arab men, women and
children -- not to mention that many of them are ethnic Turkmens. And
Turkey cannot tolerate millions more Syrian refugees, in addition to
the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that Turkey is already hosting.

Al-Assad expects Russia to continue supporting him, as he slaughters
the civilians in Idlib. He knows that Putin couldn't care less how
many of them get slaughtered. All Putin cares about is keeping
control of his two military bases in Syria that he was given in return
for supporting al-Assad -- the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim
airbase.

Erdogan expects Russia to support him -- because that's what Putin
agreed to in their meetings in Astana and Sochi. Turkish media points
out that there are many agreements between Turkey and Russia such as
the S-400 deal and TurkStream and other bilateral and military
cooperation deals. All of those deals would be in jeopardy if Russia
sides with al-Assad, and doing so might even lead to war between
Turkey and Russia. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)

I'm aware of only one possible "compromise" solution that's being
discussed. Turkey would take control of 20-30 mile wide strip
of land in northern Idlib along the border with Turkey. This would
be a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," where perhaps millions of displaced
Sunni Arabs would live, under the protection of Turkey.

Any such buffer zone would be intolerable to al-Assad, and so this
"compromise" would work only if Putin forced it on him.

But unless something major changes Turkey will soon be at war with
Syria, and possibly with Russia.

Sources:

• Turkey Strikes Scores of Pro-Assad Targets After Troops Killed (Bloomberg, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• Analysis / Idlib most challenging agenda in February (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• A ticking bomb: Idlib (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• NATO least liked in Turkey, study shows (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• 5 Turkish troops killed in 'intense' Syrian army attack in Idlib (Al-Jazeera, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• Syria war: Government shellfire kills Turkish soldiers in Idlib (BBC, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• Syria and Turkey inch closer to war after shelling kills 5 Turkish soldiers (Washington Post, 10-Feb-2020)

Related Articles:

• Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Syria, Idlib,
Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase

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[Warren Dew]

I don't think Russia has to take a side. They can just refrain from intervening on either side, and let Turkey and Syria fight it out.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: If Russia backs out

(02-11-2020, 12:33 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't think Russia has to take a side. They can just refrain
> from intervening on either side, and let Turkey and Syria fight it
> out.

When Russia entered the war on the side of al-Assad in 2015, it was
after al-Assad said that he was losing the war. Russia and Iran
(through Hezbollah) intervened and saved al-Assad from defeat.

Syria is in a generational Awakening era. Al-Assad's Alawite army had
little will to fight, and was beset by a continuing stream of
desertions. Al-Assad was saved by Russia and Hezbollah.

Today, of course, Hezbollah has problems of its own, since Trump
imposed sanctions on Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, so that Iran has
had to substantially cut funding. At the same time, Lebanon itself is
dealing with street riots and a government near collapse.

So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other? My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.

That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.

So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Erdogan's threat

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> It will be interesting since the US and Europe aren't going to
> make any effort to support Turkey. Erdogan has burned too many
> bridges so now Turkey is dangling it's dangly bits over the fire
> all alone.

Well, maybe. But Erdogan still retains a big threat over Europe. If
Erdogan is forced to open the border to a million Syrian refugees
from Idlib, then a lot of them would go on to Europe -- which is where
they really want to go. That's potentially a political disaster for
the EU. So the EU has plenty at stake in the Idlib war.

[Warren Dew]

(02-11-2020, 10:39 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other?  My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.

That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.

So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.

Sorry, I didn't mean that Russia would pull out of Syria entirely.

I think Russia could stay out of the Idlib deescalation zone, and let Turkey and Syria fight it out there, with Turkey likely winning, as you imply.  Russia would make it clear that they would get involved if Turkey went beyond the boundaries of the deescalation zone, and Turkey would refrain from doing so.  This works as long as Turkey wins within the deescalation zone.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus Covid-19

Guest Wrote:> I find it more quite telling that the WHO goes out of its to
> explain that it won't call this virus the 'Chinese flu' or the
> 'Wuhan virus' (which is what Taiwanese call it) and yet MERS
> (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is alright with them. I'm
> calling BS on this. China once again flexes its muscles and the UN
> jumps, just like it did in 2003 when the CCP criminally hid the
> SARS epidemic for 3 or 4 months.

> And yes, this could easily bring down Beijing. Barring that,
> regional civil war. This crisis has confirmed what we have always
> known: THE CCP DOESN"T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TO ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.

> #Free China!

You're right that the WHO has been sucking up to the Chinese. The
American CDC doesn't suck up to the Chinese, so they weren't allowed
to go to Wuhan, but WHO has been allowed, probably under strict
supervision by Chinese "minders." (The WHO delegation supposed will
contain some CDC scientists.)

And you make a good point that it was OK to use the name MERS for the
Middle Eastern virus, but not OK to use Wuhan in the name of the Wuhan
virus, which is now officially called Coronavirus Covid-19.

News reports on Tuesday have been extremely schizophrenic, flipping
back and forth between calling it a major international crisis on the
one hand versus a peaking crisis on the other hand. Nobody really
knows.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Tensions grow between Turkey and Russia over Idlib

• Syrians fleeing with their belongings head northwards toward
  the border with Turkey

Anti-Assad rebels in Syria's Idlib province on Tuesday shot down shot
down a military helicopter belonging to the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. All crew members were killed in a fiery crash. The
anti-Assad rebels claimed that the helicopter had been dropping barrel
bombs on civilian neighborhoods.

This comes as al-Assad's ground forces, backed by Russia and Iran,
continued to advance in Idlib towards the Turkish forces in
"observation posts," whose job is to assure that previous
"de-escalation zone" agreement in Idlib honored. In the past, Russia
and Syria have honored these agreements, but have used them as cover
to continue attacking al-Assad's Sunni Arab political enemies.

Turkish forces have retaliated and killed over 100 Syrian forces
during the last week.

Russia is siding with al-Assad, and is demanding that Turkey stop
attacking Syrian forces.

Turkey's politicians are becoming increasingly nationalistic, and some
political opponents of Recep Tayyip Erdogan are demanding that Turkish
forces keep fighting through Idlib, all the way to Damascus.

According to some Turkish press reports, there have been meetings
between American and Turkish officials, leading the Russians to worry
that, after years of estrangement, Turkey and America are reconciling,
and America will provide some sort of support to Turkey in Idlib.
This possibility is said to be worrying the Russians, who for years
have been doing everything possible to pull Turkey away from America,
Nato and the EU.

The situation remains chaotic and in flux.

---- Sources:

-- Russia wary of Turkey turning to U.S. over Idlib - columnist
https://ahvalnews.com/russia-turkey/russ...-columnist
(Ahval News, Ankara, 5-Feb-2020)

-- Rebels shoot down Syrian helicopter as fighting intensifies
https://www.theledger.com/news/20200211/...ntensifies
(AP, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Idlib / Erdogan Threatens Military Escalation in Syria
https://www.voanews.com/europe/erdogan-t...tion-syria
(VOA, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Intel: Turkish demands on Idlib complicate Russia’s pursuit of
compromise
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...-deal.html
(Al-Monitor, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey's options dry up in Syria as Russia backs Assad push
https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-options-dr...a-52344299
(Deutsche-Welle, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Kremlin to Turkey: Help Stop Attacks on Syrian and Russian Forces
in Idlib
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/1...lib-a69238
(Reuters, 11-Feb-2020)

---- Related articles:

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209

[David Horn]

(02-11-2020, 11:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus Covid-19

Guest Wrote:I find it more quite telling that the WHO goes out of its to explain that it won't call this virus the 'Chinese flu' or the 'Wuhan virus' (which is what Taiwanese call it) and yet MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is alright with them.  I'm calling BS on this. China once again flexes its muscles and the UN jumps, just like it did in 2003 when the CCP criminally hid the SARS epidemic for 3 or 4 months.

And yes, this could easily bring down Beijing. Barring that, regional civil war. This crisis has confirmed what we have always known: THE CCP DOESN"T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TO ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.

#Free China!

You're right that the WHO has been sucking up to the Chinese.  The American CDC doesn't suck up to the Chinese, so they weren't allowed to go to Wuhan, but WHO has been allowed, probably under strict supervision by Chinese "minders."  (The WHO delegation supposed will contain some CDC scientists.)

And you make a good point that it was OK to use the name MERS for the Middle Eastern virus, but not OK to use Wuhan in the name of the Wuhan virus, which is now officially called Coronavirus Covid-19.

News reports on Tuesday have been extremely schizophrenic, flipping back and forth between calling it a major international crisis on the one hand versus a peaking crisis on the other hand.  Nobody really knows.

WHO has a mandate to address potential global pandemics, so anything they can do is better than nothing.  But yes, the Chinese are unwilling to look bad, so what can be done is less than what should be done.  More to the point, the global panic is starting to get serious. There is a Holland-America cruise ship (The Westerdam) bobbing around in the Pacific with zero infected passengers and no authorized port to dock until Cambodia finally agreed to let them in.  It was their thirdfourth try.  Japan said no, Guam said no and so did Thailand. Guam is particularly bad, since the US State Department gave a waver and asked them to let the ship dock.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: WHO investigation team in China

(02-12-2020, 12:38 PM)David Horn Wrote: > WHO has a mandate to address potential global pandemics, so
> anything they can do is better than nothing. But yes, the Chinese
> are unwilling to look bad, so what can be done is less than what
> should be done. More to the point, the global panic is starting
> to get serious. There is a Holland-America cruise ship (The
> Westerdam) bobbing around in the Pacific with zero infected
> passengers and no authorized port to dock until Cambodia finally
> agreed to let them in. It was their third try. Japan said no,
> and so did Thailand.

WHO is a political organization, controlled by the UN politicians.
For investigations, it depends on working with the CDC and other
similar organizations in the West.

Starting from mid-January, the US offered to send a team of CDC
scientists to Wuhan to investigate and offer what help they could.
The Chinese blocked, and continued to block, the CDC team and, at the
same time, China's Foreign Ministry accused the US for refusing to
help China. This is typical of the CCP asshole thugs speaking out of
both sides of their mouths, and suggests that it's very likely that
the Chinese are hiding something that they don't want anyone to know
about the source of the outbreak.

Whether this goes beyond simply "not willing to look bad" remains to
be seen. The fact that they're blocking investigations, censoring
media, and letting whistleblowers die already makes them look bad.
What more are they hiding?

The WHO team has not yet arrived in China. I've been listening to a
WHO press conference, and in the last few minutes I was surprised to
hear that WHO and the Chinese are "negotiating the composition of the
team" to be sent to China. That team, including CDC scientists,
should have been there weeks ago, even if it makes the CCP thugs "look
bad." In other words, the CCP thugs are going to do everything they
can to prevent the WHO team from doing any real investigation.

There still remains the question of what the CCP thugs are hiding.

Update: The WHO leader has said, "Now is not the time for
recriminations." In response to a question, the WHO leader just said:
"Now is not the time to do forensics. Now is the time to fight this
virus." Presumably, "forensics" refers to investigations that the CCP
will do everything possible to hide.

WHO is emphasizing that this outbreak can go in any direction, and
that all countries must be prepared. This is a message to the whole
world, and is also a message to the CCP thugs to tell them to stop
screwing around.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View:Turkey, Russia, Syria accusations over Idlib seem to be spiraling out of control


Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that they
will no longer honor their Astana and Sochi agreements with Russia,
and will strike at the regime forces of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad anywhere, unless the regime forces are pulled back.

Quote:> "The [Syria] regime, backed by Russian forces and
> Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians,
> committing massacres and shedding blood.

> I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from
> now on regardless of the Sochi deal if any tiny bit of harm comes
> to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere. ...

> Turkey is determined to push back Syrian regime forces from
> Turkey’s observation posts in Idlib by the end of February.

> [To push back the Syrian forces, Turkey] will do what is necessary
> via land and air without hesitation. ...

> Nobody is safe where the blood of Turkish soldiers is shed. ...
> Turkey will use its full force. ...

> At this point, we will not shut our eyes to excess, radicalism,
> treason and provocation of someone [in Syria]."

Russia's spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded:

Quote:> "At the moment, we consider the most important thing
> is the implementation of ... agreements (between Russia and
> Turkey) ... and of course the suppression of any terrorist
> activity directed against the Syrian armed forces and Russian
> military facilities. We consider such sorties from Idlib
> unacceptable."

"Terrorist" is a weasel-word used by the Russians. In public
statements, they demand that Turkey somehow separate out the
"terrorists" from the civilians, so that al-Assad can kill the
"terrorists" and leave the civilians alone. But al-Assad considers
all 3.5 million Arab Sunni men, women and children in Idlib to be
"terrorists," all cockroaches to be exterminated in any way possible.

The Russian defence ministry used these weasel words on Wednesday,
blaming the crisis in Idlib on "failure by Turkish colleagues to
fulfil their obligations on separating fighters from the moderate
opposition from terrorists."

Syria's foreign ministry in Damascus issued a statement:

Quote:> "The head of the Turkish regime comes with
> empty... statements only issued by a person disconnected from
> reality."

Turkey and Russia have been in a "marriage of convenience" with
regards to Syria policy at least since 2015, when Russia entered the
war in Syria. This marriage has been extremely difficult, which is
not surprising, since Turks and Russians have shared many centuries of
mutual hatred and generational crisis wars:

** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125


Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a "divorce of
inconvenience," and a new generational crisis war between the Sunni
Muslim Turks and the Orthodox Christian Russians.

Turkish media are saying hopefully that the marriage of convenience
will continue, in view of relationships in many areas, including
"trade, tourism, Black Sea, Balkans, Middle East, especially Syria,
Libya, defense industry (S-400s), energy (nuclear Akkuyu and energy
transmission lines) etc. It is possible to extend the list."

Nonetheless, Russia is clearly siding with the Syrian regime against
Turkey, and positions on all sides seem to be hardening. The
situation in Idlib seems to be spinning out of control.



---- Sources:

-- Erdogan / 'Turkey to hit regime anywhere if troops harmed again'
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/tur...in/1731665
(Anadolu, Ankara, 12-Feb-2020)

-- End of proxy war: Turkey-Russia tensions rise over Syria
https://middle-east-online.com/en/end-pr...over-syria
(Middle East Online, 12-Feb-2020)

---- Related Posts and Articles:

*** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Tensions grow between Turkey and Russia over Idlib
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...957#p49957

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209