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Generational Dynamics World View
** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Review of my book on Vietnam

I am requesting members of this forum to review the current draft of
my book on Vietnam, and post any questions or comments or corrections
you may have.

http://jxenakis.com/pg/ww2010.vnbk.gx113.htm

It's a big job, but I promise you that it will be worthwhile, because
you'll learn a great deal not only about Vietnam and Buddhism, but
also about America and Generational Dynamics.

If you refer to a section of the book, then please provide the section
title as well as the section number, since the section numbers are
subject to change.

The draft is now 98% complete. There are still sections that need
completion and/or revision, so there will be changes.

Thanks, John
Reply
** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Book cover

The following is the book cover as it currently stands:

[Image: vnbk1000-210216.jpg]

So I have no color coordination skills, so I'm looking for suggestions
for colors.

The colors that I chose -- purple and blue -- are based on the
following that I found on a web site:

Basic Vietnamese Color Meanings
* Red – happiness, love, luck, celebration
* Yellow – wealth, prosperity, royalty, happiness, change
* Green – jealousy, lust
* Blue – calmness, hope, growth
* Purple – nostalgia, sadness, fragility, tenderness
* White – purity, death, the end
* Black – evil

The red rectangle with the yellow star is the Vietnamese flag.

The picture is a port in the Mekong Delta near Saigon.

I might have used red and yellow for the entire cover, rather than
purple and blue, but those are the colors that I used on my China
book.

Suggestions for improving the cover text, including the entire book
title and subtitle, are also welcome.

For comparison purposes, here are the covers of my Iran and China books:

[Image: irbk1000.jpg]

[Image: scbk1000.jpg]
Reply
I'd vote for dark blue on yellow, or red on yellow, or maybe dark red brown on yellow.
Reply
** 17-Feb-2021 World View: Purple on yellow

(02-16-2021, 09:49 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'd vote for dark blue on yellow, or red on yellow, or maybe dark
> red brown on yellow.

After some discussion, the current candidate is purple lettering on
yellow, which is very similar to your suggestion:

[Image: vnbk1000-210216d.jpg]
Reply
That definitely looks better than blue on blue!
Reply
*** 19-Feb-21 World View -- Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
  • Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
  • Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
  • Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication

****
**** Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
****


[Image: g210218b.jpg]
Feb 29 2020 signing ceremony for US-Taliban peace agreement (Tolo News)

On Thursday, Nato defense ministers met in Brussels and decided to
postpone the planned withdrawal of Nato troops, previously scheduled
for May 1. The Taliban have threatened that unless the troops are
withdrawn, then there will be a major escalation in the Taliban's
spring fighting season, and indeed the violence is already increasing.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban are poised to return to power in
Afghanistan, either through negotiations or through a renewed civil
war, after they had been removed from power by the United States in
2001, after the 9/11 attacks.

In 2009 I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis summarized
below, that peace was impossible in Afghanistan, no matter how many
troops the US and Nato sent there, which means that the Taliban would
return to power if American troops withdrew. That prediction is being
proven true once again, and we now appear close to a historic
dénouement.

In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration reached a delusional
agreement with the Taliban to bring a new era of peace to Afghanistan.
America and Nato would remove all its troops by May of this year and,
in return, the Taliban would stop funding al-Qaeda and would sever
all its ties to al-Qaeda. The Taliban didn't promise to stop violence
altogether, but did promise to "tone down" the violence.

As part of the agreement, peace talks took place between America
and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. These peace talks were also completely
delusional. The Afghan government weren't in the talks. And NATO,
which also has troops in Afghanistan, weren't in the talks. In fact,
the entire "peace process" has always been delusional.

Trump removed all but 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, and had every
intention of removing all troops by May 1, but Joe Biden has promised
to review that decision. But what happens now is now a Brussels
decision rather than a Washington decision.

****
**** Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
****


Nato still has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, and they were
scheduled to leave by May 1 as well. It's clear that's not
happening, simply from the fact that they haven't yet
"started packing."

BBC's Lyse Doucet interviewed Nato's Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday.
Parts of what he said were hopeful but delusional, but in other parts
he conceded that the hopeful parts were not going to happen.

The Taliban are claiming that they've met their commitments to reduce
violence and end ties with international terrorists. However,
violence has been increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, a UN panel
headed by Edmund Fitton-Brown has found that "There is still clearly a
close relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We believe that
the top leadership of Al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection."

The Taliban are promising a major escalation of violence unless
the US and Nato troops withdraw by May 1. Since it's clear
that the troops will not withdraw by May 1, it's clear that a
major escalation in fighting will begin in the new spring
fighting season.

Here is what Stoltenberg said in the interview (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"So we really believe that this not the time to make a
final decision, because we'd like to give every chance to the
peace process, the peace talks, to succeed.

Those talks are fragile and difficult, there is no easy option in
Afghanistan, but there is still a possibility to reach a lasting
political agreement, and all parties should engage in those talks,
and the Taliban must reduce violence and must negotiate in good
faith, and they must stop cooperating with the international
terrorists.

And by doing that, they will also provide the platform to find a
political solution.

[Question: So you may be in Afghanistan for many years go come?]

Absolutely, as I said, there are no easy options in Afghanistan,
and we face many difficult dilemmas. If we decide to stay beyond
May 1, then we risk more violence against our troops, and of
course we risk continued long-term involvement in a very difficult
operation in Afghanistan. But if we leave, we risk that
Afghanistan once again becomes a safe haven for international
terrorists, planning attacks against our own countries as we saw
on 9/11 and also losing all the gains we made on human rights,
especially for women over last years.

So this is difficult. That's the reason at this stage why we
believe this is not the right time to make a final decision on
whether we leave or stay, but continue to support the efforts to
re-energize the peace talks.

[Question: The Taliban say they have kept their commitments. Do
you believe you have solid evidence that they have not cut there
ties with al-Qaeda, that there is still a risk that Afghanistan
could once again be a safe haven to launch attacks against Europe
and the United States?]

What we have seen is an increase in violence, not a decrease in
violence. We have seen that the peace talks are almost stopped,
there is hardly any progress at all.

And the Taliban has to do more and they have to live up to their
commitments especially related to counterterrorism, break ties
with terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>


According to Doucet, this is so far the worst Taliban fighting season
ever, and it will get worse when the snow melts. In fact there's been
so little snow this winter, the doctors in the National Police
Hospital said that they had never seen so many casualties from so many
provinces at this time of year.

So the delusional parts of Stoltenberg's interview are when he says,
"we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks,
to succeed." That's delusional because there is zero probability that
the peace talks will succeed, since the Taliban are committed to them
not succeeding, and are using the peace talks as a ploy to get the
Nato forces to withdraw, so that the Taliban can overrun Kabul and
resume the control they had before they were ejected by American
forces after 9/11/2001.

According to a European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato
cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully." That's the choice facing
Nato right now.

And so the war will go on and be substantially escalated again
when the Taliban's spring fighting season begins in earnest.

****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****


I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.

The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.

So when Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato wants to give the peace
process a chance, he knows that statement is delusional, and the only
relevant statement is the one by the unnamed European diplomat: "This
war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it
pitifully."

****
**** Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
****


As regular readers know, I have been writing a book on the history of
Vietnam, to complement my previous books on the histories of Iran and
China. The book is nearing publication, and I now expect it to be
published on Amazon in March.

Here are the front and back book covers:

[Image: vnbk620bb.jpg]
Front and back covers of forthcoming book on history of Vietnam

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition
- Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Nato, Brussels, Parliamentary Assembly,
Lyce Doucet, Jens Stoltenberg, Edmund Fitton-Brown,
Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
I've only had time to skim the book, but I couldn't find anything directly laying out the generational era for Vietnam. If it's not in there, I think it would be useful, particularly regarding when their third turning ends.

On another note, I think subsaharan Africa is entering a third turning? As the third turning is an excellent time for outside investment, a book on subsaharan Africa might be of interest to some of your readers.
Reply
** 28-Feb-2021 World View: Vietnam generational timeline

(02-26-2021, 01:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I've only had time to skim the book, but I couldn't find anything
> directly laying out the generational era for Vietnam. If it's not
> in there, I think it would be useful, particularly regarding when
> their third turning ends.

After the "Vietnam War" ended and America withdrew in 1975, the real
war began. That was the war that idiots like Jane Fonda and John
Kerry wanted to pretend never even occurred. The NY Times wrote,
"It's difficult to imagine how their lives could be anything but
better with the Americans gone." The headline was, "Indochina without
Americans: For Most a Better Life."

The North Vietnamese Communists slaughtered thousands of people in
South Vietnam, and sent hundreds of thousands to "re-education camps,"
where they were tortured and beaten and forced to memorize Communist
propaganda. The Communists particularly slaughtered Catholics. The
Communists went into Laos and committed genocide against the Hmong
ethnic group, whom they had hated for centuries. In Cambodia, Pol Pot
slaughtered millions of people in the "Killing Fields" genocide that
Jane Fonda said she would never criticize, whose purpose was to create
a new "master race." Then the Vietnamese Communists invaded Cambodia,
and attacked the Khmers, whom they'd hated for centuries. The Chinese
Communists invaded Vietnam, to "teach them a lesson." Although the
war continued until 1989, I believe it climaxed around 1980.

So that was the war that you won't read about because the
leftist antiwar assholes at the NY Times and other mainstream
media want you to believe that life was wonderful after the
Americans left.

So if the war climaxed in 1980, then Vietnam today would be at
the beginning of an Unraveling era.

(02-26-2021, 01:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > On another note, I think subsaharan Africa is entering a third
> turning? As the third turning is an excellent time for outside
> investment, a book on subsaharan Africa might be of interest to
> some of your readers.

I dunno. When I've written about Africa in the past, it's
turned out that there are almost no historical records prior
to 1850 or so.
Reply
*** 6-Mar-21 World View -- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
  • International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
  • Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
  • Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
  • Consequences of a new Burma civil war

****
**** Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
****


[Image: g210305b.jpg]
Protesters set up a street blockade in Mandalay, Myanmar (AP)

Last Sunday (February 28) was a major turning point in the violence in
Myanmar / Burma, when the army security forces began using lethal
force and adopted a shoot-to-kill policy, killing peaceful protesters
for the first time. The protests were the largest that Myanmar has
seen since 2007. They began when the iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi
was arrested on Jan 28, along with her government ministers. (See
"2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials"
)

Up till last Sunday, the army had been using non-lethal tactics,
including tear gas and rubber bullets. But on Sunday they began using
live ammunition, and the level of violence has been increasing every
day since then. Dozens of protesters have been killed so far, and
thousands have been arrested, including 29 journalists.

Several analysts have said that the army is purposely increasing the
level of violence each day in order to break the back of the protests.
This tactic worked in 2007. Hundreds of activists and citizens were
shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of
Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were gathered up
and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. The
protests finally fizzled when the violence became lethal enough.

However, there's a big difference in public mood between now and 2007.
Unlike then, the country today is in a generational Crisis era, and
so, unlike then, the mood of both the army and the protesters is not
to compromise. This means that it's unlikely the violence will
fizzle, and more likely that it will continue to escalate. The next
step for the army would be machine guns and assault rifles.

The fact that young, innocent people are being killed is infuriating
the protesters. There have been complaints of cruelty, even sadism,
by the security forces. There have been brutal attacks on innocent
medics, and all hospitals are closed in many cities.

The increase in lethal violence so far has not deterred the protesters
who remain defiant and, if anything, have been growing in numbers.
The protesters are wearing whatever protective equipment they can
find, like makeshift shields. Some are using satellite dishes as
shields, or are wearing helmets. They've tasted freedom in the last
few years, and they cannot tolerate a new dictatorship by military
junta.

Protesters are heavily using their mobile phones to publicize the
violence. Although it's dangerous to do so, they're filming the
violence and then loading the video onto twitter or live streaming it
onto facebook.

Probably the military junta has been most hurt by civil disobedience
and the national strikes by the banks, and even in the civil service,
by workers in health, education, labor, and immigration.

The army has used videos on Tiktok to threaten the protesters. A
typical video shows a soldier pointing a big gun at the camera and
saying that protesters will be shot dead. Tiktok claims that it has
removed most of those videos.

****
**** International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
****


The UN Security Council met on Friday and, not surprisingly,
accomplished nothing. Any condemnation of the violence in Myanmar
will be vetoed by China and Russia, rather than risk having violence
in their own countries be condemned.

The US and UK are planning their own sanctions. There are planned
sanctions targeting the assets of the members of the military council
and imposing travel restrictions, as well as an arms embargo.

There is no chance that these sanctions will stop the military junta.

****
**** Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
****


Both BBC and al-Jazeera have been interviewing people in Myanmar, and
they're describing a different situation than is portrayed by the
so-called "international community," as represented by the UN and
NGOs.

The international community has provided verbal condemnation that the
violence is unacceptable and must stop immediately, that peaceful
protests much be permitted, and that Aung San Suu Kyi must be released
from jail and returned as leader of the government. And if the
violence doesn't stop, the international community is threatening even
worse verbal condemnations, and possibly even to hold more meetings.

However, some reports have pointed out that although the Burmese mobs
support that solution, the ethnic minorities in Myanmar are opposed to
it. This opposition point of view was discussed at length by Khin Zaw
Win, a Burmese anti-government activist and journalist who was
imprisoned by the army from 1994-2005 for "seditious writings," and
who was interviewed on the BBC.

According to Khin, the ethnic minorities are opposed to Aung San Suu
Kyi because she was part of the government that discriminated against
minorities. Furthermore, she damaged herself deeply by becoming a
useful idiot and siding with the army when the army was conducting
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingys in Rakhine State,
even going so far as traveling to the Hague in December 2019 to defend
the Burmese army against charges of war crimes. It is an irony that
the army that she defended turned around and threw her under the bus,
arresting her and her entire government when she was no longer useful
to the army.

The Burmese majority and the ethnic minorities have been temporarily
united by the military coup and the resulting violence against
peaceful street protesters. However, they do not share a common
objective. What the ethnic minorities want is a new constitution,
with greater political autonomy and greater rights for ethnic
minorities. And nobody believes that solution is even remotely
possible.

****
**** Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
****


Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic
groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 49 years after the climax of
the last crisis war, during a generational Unraveling era. At that
time, there were many people in the army who had lived through the
1958 slaughter, and stopped short of trying to repeat it. Similarly,
the young people who protested in 2007 had parents who had lived
through the 1958 slaughter, and who held back their children from
going too far in risking their lives.

But since 2016, Burma has been in a generational Crisis era. The
people who had lived through the 1958 slaughter are gone or retired,
and have lost their influence. The younger generation of protesters
have no memory of the 1958 slaughter, and do not fear what's coming.

The current generation of people in the army also have no memory of
the 1958 slaughter. What they remember is the 2007 protests, and they
remember that those protests fizzled when the army began escalating
the violence.

The current protesters also remember the 2007 protests, and they
remember how the protesters at that time simply surrendered when they
didn't have to.

This is how a generational Crisis era is different from a generational
Unraveling era. Today, the army has no inhibitions against escalating
its violence, and the protesters have no inhibitions against
continuing to protest, even if some of them get killed. That makes it
unlikely that the current situation will simply fizzle.

The situation is further complicated by the ethnic minorities. The
1948-1958 crisis war was a civil war involving all the ethnic groups,
especially the Burmese, the Kachin and the Shan. The latter three
groups are currently aligned in their opposition to the army, but what
we are seeing are the first signs of a massive new ethnic civil war.

****
**** Consequences of a new Burma civil war
****


According to the Generational Dynamics analysis, the current clashes
are fairly likely to escalate into a full scale civil war, although
that is not a certainty. However, the current situation is so febrile
that even if some temporary truce is worked out -- and this would have
to include freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and her government -- then the
violence will resume again before long.

Arguably, the civil war already began in 2012, when the army began its
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingyas. The army
referred to the Rohingyas as "enemies of the state," but now the
ordinary Burmese people have also become "enemies of the state."

If the violence escalates into a full-scale civil war, it could affect
the entire region. There are now almost a million Rohingyas living in
filthy refugee camps just across the border in Bangladesh, and they're
looking for revenge. If there is a general breakdown in law and order
in Myanmar, then those Rohingya refugees may well cross back into
Myanmar and join the fighting. This could also bring Bangladesh
itself into the fighting.

The separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has joined together with
the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along
the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's
army. These groups have had occasional clashes with China's army
along the border inside China, and those clashes would probably
escalate if there is a civil war in Burma. In fact, China was heavily
involved in the crisis war that climaxed in 1958, and history will
certainly repeat itself, with China heavily involved in a new civil
war in Burma.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a new
world war between the US and China, but does not predict the scenario
that will lead to that war. We've speculated that it may begin with a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan, or it may begin with a war
between India and Pakistan, or it may begin in the Mideast and spread
from there.

But here we see another possibility. If a massive civil war occurs in
Burma, and it spreads to involve China and Bangladesh, then it may
spread further to other countries in Central Asia, bringing in India
and Russia.

And so, Dear Reader, keep your eye on Myanmar / Burma. Even if you're
totally addicted to watching the political sewer in Washington, try to
avert you eyes every once in a while, if only for a few moments, to
see something that may affect the lives of you and your family more
than the latest lockdown.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Burmans, Shan,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
Some years ago (I don't recall exactly how many) I mentioned a magazine article on the paleo 4T site. The article indicated that Vietnam was under going something of a religious revival. A religious revival based on Vietnamese traditions.

If Vietnam's last Crisis ended about 40-41 years ago, that would have given Vietnam enough time to complete two turnings. So, yes, it seems plausible that Vietnam might be, or will soon be, in early Unraveling.
Reply
If Burma's last Crisis ended in 1958, then that Crisis ended about 63 years ago. Kids who were old enough to grasp the violence then would be quite aged by now.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Tulipomania

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Quickly on the tulip bubble, which is the most embarrassing
> comparison these emotional hater posters put forth: The tulip
> thing was overstated, but even if you don't believe that, the nail
> in the coffin for the stupidity in comparison is that the "tulip
> bubble" - or any other bubble akin, lasted all of 1 year? Maybe
> 1.5. It didn't even bankrupt anyone, but it proved itself a
> bubble, yes.

Your description is completely untrue. The Tulipomania bubble lasted
for decades, and it bankrupted a lot of people.

I wrote about Tulipomania at length in my 2003 book on Generational
Dynamics. I was comparing the tech bubble to the bubble in "high
tech" tulips. Here's what I wrote at that time:

**** Tulipomania

By way of example, let's start with one of the most famous bubbles in
history. However, it occurred in Europe, not in America. It's the
first reasonably well-documented bubble in history, and it was called
"Tulip Mania" or "Tulipomania" -- because it had to do with the
pricing of Dutch tulips in the early 1600s. This bubble grew for
decades, but it only burst completely in 1637, just as France was
entering a major "world war" of that time, the Thirty Years' War.

It's almost hilarious to compare the Internet products of the 1990s
with tulips of the 1630s, but in fact, tulips were the high-tech
product in the Netherlands at that time.

Those were heady days in the Dutch Republic. Amsterdam was the major
gateway between London and Paris, and the city had benefited hugely
from having established Europe's first central bank in 1609, giving
Dutch merchants a big competitive advantage around the world. It was
still the biggest bank in Europe in the 1630s, and the whole of the
Netherlands was prosperous, not having yet been affected by the
Thirty Years War.

Tulips did not originate with the Dutch. The first bulbs had arrived
from Turkey only a few years earlier, in the late 1500s. By means of
breeding experiments, Dutch botanists were able to produce tulips
with spectacular colors. These tulips were sought by wealthy people,
and by 1624, one particularly spectacular bulb sold for the cost of a
small house.

Prices remained elevated for over another decade, and soon investors
from all over Europe began purchasing a kind of "Tulip future," a
certificate purchased in the fall which can be traded for a specific
actual tulip to be grown the following spring. In some ways, these
certificates were similar to "stock options" in the 1990s.

In 1636, speculation in tulip futures went through the roof, and on
February 3, 1637, the tulip market suddenly crashed, causing the
loss of enormous sums of money, even by ordinary people, including
many ordinary people in France and other countries.

A mood of retribution began immediately, and even the tulips
themselves suffered. Evrard Forstius, a professor of botany, became
so reviled by the mere sight of tulips that he attacked them with
sticks whenever he saw them! At this point, the Thirty Years
War enveloped all of Europe.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Collapse of civilization

Higgenbotham Wrote:Demarest once again.

Higgenbotham Wrote:
Higgenbotham Wrote:https://soundcloud.com/bloomberg-busines...s/odd-lots

Quote:25:06 Moderator: How quickly can it all collapse?

Arthur Demarest: Very quickly. It can happen very, very quickly. The
Maya Civilization was most spectacular at around 780 to 790, 785, and
by 810 it was just in pieces. 800 in a lot of places, so it can
happen really, really quickly. It's often happened slowly in one part
and then that reaches a critical point and then it just runs through
the whole system which is what happened also with the Maya.

The material you've posted from Arthur Demarest is very interesting,
but there's another side to it -- the recovery.

Let's take a relatively modern example, the German civilization. The
German nation was formed in the 1860s, and it reached its peak in
the 1930s. But like the Maya civilization it collapsed quickly.

By 1945, the German civilization was in pieces -- literally, since the
German nation had been split into four pieces. In 1945, all of
Germany's large cities and many midsized cities lay in ruins and
ashes. The allied bombs had been directed at civilians as well as
factories. Incendiary bombs had been used to devour people in flames.
Dresden was a particular target. Tens of millions of people were in
chaos, without homes, and barely with any hope of survival. So that
certainly fits Demarest's description of a civilization that had
collapsed.

But look what happened afterwards. Germany went through a Recovery Era,
and within 20 years was an economic powerhouse again. In 1991, East
and West Germany were reunited, and so you could almost say that German
civilization didn't collapse after all.

What Demarest is describing fits very well into the Generational Dynamics
template. A society or nation reaches a peak during the Unraveling
era or the first part of the Crisis era. Then a Regeneracy occurs,
and the society or nation goes into a full-scale crisis war.
A crisis war typically lasts around five years, and the losing side
can be destroyed very quickly, as Demarest says. But then there's
a Recovery Era and an Awakening Era, and before you know it, everything's
back the way it was.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Collapse of Roman Britain

tim Wrote:> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKe9njOB24

> Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

> If you start watching around 49:00 (though the entire video is
> worth watching), you can see what true collapse looks like.

> - central power collapse, the British people had to "look to their
> own defenses"

> - taxes stopped being collected

> - they stopped paying the administrators of the cities and trade
> routes

> - the previous professional military started taxing the civilians
> directly for protection. These groups grew into the basis of
> early medieval society

> - language was forgotten

> - people stopped being able to write

> - Britain's Roman cities fell into ruins. Cities abandoned.

> - Roman swords were found abandoned, dropped and left there. In
> this time a sword was what a mobile phone is today it would
> never be discarded.

> - "One day it seems, everyone just got up and left"

> - Tribal warlords some of which were officers in the former Roman
> army, moved in to the ruins and used them as private castles

> - trade at London's port stopped completely, suburbs were turned
> into farmland, people lacked the knowledge and will to rebuild.

> - Londons population drifted to the countryside and lived in
> primitive houses

> - Enclave of the ultra wealthy continued to live a Roman existence
> in a gated community. The decline was unstoppable and the rest of
> the city descended into chaos. People began to grow wheat in the
> middle of London. London was eventually deserted
> completely.

That's an amazing story.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: After the war

Guest Wrote:> Tim has some good info, but personally, I don't know why anyone
> would want to survive a full blown nuclear war. It will take a
> hundred years to rebuild from one, if ever. Third world countries
> won't ever recover. I think Higge has a better outlook, survive a
> year and then decide if it is worth staying alive.

That's the wrong way of looking at it. I certainly wouldn't want to
live through a full blown nuclear war, but if you live through the war
and survive and come out the other end relatively unscathed, then in
many cases life could be quite good. There will be lots of work to do
to rebuild the world, and there will be lots of available chicks,
since usually more men than women are killed in war.

And it won't take a hundred years to rebuild. Within ten years,
things will already be looking pretty good, though primitive. After
another ten years the world will be pretty good.
Reply
** 09-Mar-2021 World View: Ye shall not know the date

aeden Wrote:> https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-...ied-elites

> Read this twice. They will spill out like an infection on
> themselves and go from there with utter impunity. I can give you
> a exact date and it will profit you nothing.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Oh yes it will. Better yet, it'll profit the resident guru JX the
> most.

Actually, the opposite is true.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a stock market panic
is a chaotic event, and the date cannot be predicted. If Aeden could
correctly predict the date, not simply by chance but according to some
reproducible algorithm, then it would indicate that Generational
Dynamics is wrong in that regard, so I would not "profit."
Reply
** 10-Mar-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma violence - no end in sight

[Image: 40256130-9342863-image-a-114_1615305921726.jpg]
  • This scene is actually a training exercise for protesters.
    The protesters hurl bottles at a line of activists posing as riot
    police to help their colleagues prepare for street battles (Daily Mail)


I heard a couple of tv analysts say that the protests in Myanmar /
Burma can't continue much longer, because the police/army violence
against the protesters is growing, and soon the protesters will have
to give up.

One of them said explicitly: "We know from history the protesters will
back down, because that's what happened in the 2007 protests after the
violence against protesters became too great."

This is a typical mistake that journalists, analysts and politicians
make all the time. In 2007, Burma was in a generational Unraveling
era, at a time when there were still plenty of people running things
who were survivors of the last generational crisis war (1948-1958),
and so there was a mood of compromise on all sides. But today, the
country is in a generational Crisis era, with all of those survivors
now retired or dead, and there's no mood of compromise among the
younger generations.

So the 2007 historical analogy is irrelevant. In fact, it may
motivate in the opposite direction, if today's protesters have the
view that the 2007 protesters gave up before they had to.

The harsh military crackdown is continuing and escalating. Police are
smashing open the doors of apartments of suspected protesters and
arresting them in the middle of the night. The police are freely
using tear gas and live ammunition, and thousands of people have
arrested.

It's thought that the protests have been only partially affected.
One reporter said that instead of hundreds of thousands of protesters
at some rallies, he's seeing "only" tens of thousands.

An interesting development is that protesters are practicing drills
and training each other to face the police. This suggests that the
protests, which formerly have been entirely organic, are now becoming
more organized.

There are an increasing number of workers in the "civil disobedience
movement," an alliance of nine trade unions in Myanmar in a general
strike Monday. The most publicized case is the strike by railway
workers. On Wednesday, security forces raided a Yangon neighborhood
where railway workers live in government-provided housing. The
workers were forced at gunpoint to go back to work.

There have been only a few defections from the army. Myanmar's
ambassadors to the UN and UK have switched sides and begged the
international community to do something. A few hundred policemen have
fled across the border into India, because they didn't want to kill
their fellow citizens.

But those defections have been rare. Both sides -- the army and the
protesters -- have been digging in and hardening their positions.
There are no signs that this will end any time soon.

---- Sources:

-- Myanmar protesters hold 'rehearsals' as they prepare for more
street clashes with military with activists posing as riot police
as they are pelted with bottles
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...ttles.html
(DailyMail, 9-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar Security Forces Target Striking Railroad Workers'
Neighborhood
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacifi...ighborhood
(VOA, 10-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar protesters defy curfew; media outlets ordered shut
https://www.miningjournal.net/news/inter...ered-shut/
(AP, 10-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar's military junta pays $2 million to Canadian lobbying firm
to 'explain the real situation' as riot police carry out dawn raids
on railway workers and death toll in brutal crackdown rises to more
than 60
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...ation.html
(DailyMail, 10-Mar-2021)


---- Related articles:

** 6-Mar-21 World View -- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210306



** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210208



** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210202
Reply
** 10-Mar-2021 World View: The Deflationary Tsunami

Tom Mazanec" Wrote:> Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary
> Tsunami

> https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar21/def...i3-21.html

Bubble psychology really is very strange to me. How could supposedly
intelligent people be so dumb and blind?

Starting in 2004, I watched the housing bubble with astonishment. It
was obvious to me that there was a housing bubble. It was obvious to
Alan Greenspan that there was a housing bubble, and I quoted him at
length, although the so-called financial "experts" pretended not to
understand him by claiming he used obscure language. I sold my condo
at the height of the housing bubble, and part of the reason I'm alive
today is the money that provided. In 2007, I was begging a couple of
friends not to buy homes because they were in a housing bubble, but
they did anyway and lost a lot of money. It was only in 2009 when I
heard an analyst on tv talk about the housing bubble -- in 2006.

As I've written before, I've been tracking inflation predictions since
2003, and so-called "experts" have been wrong about predicting
inflation constantly. But they're so stupid, they keep making the
same mistake over and over. Isn't that the definition of insanity?
Every quarter they predict massive inflation the next quarter.
They've been wrong about this for about 70 consecutive quarters since
I've been keeping track, and they keep making the same stupid mistake.
And they're doing it again today.

So the above deflation article by Charles Hugh Smith is the first that
I've seen that really gives a detailed explanation of why we're headed
for a deflationary crisis.

Here is my summary of the reasoning why we're headed for a
"deflationary tsunami," based on the reasoning in the article:
  • During the "roaring 1920s," the stock market kept going up,
    and the public mood was that the stock market would continue going up
    indefinitely, with the worst being an occasional dip. So ordinary
    people and investors kept buying stocks, knowing that their value
    would continue to increase.

  • But it's more than that. If investors "know" that stock values
    will increase forever, then they can borrow money to buy more stocks,
    knowing that they'll be able to repay the debts by selling the stocks.
    And by the time they sell the stocks, the stocks will be worth more,
    since the stock prices are always going up, so they can repay the
    debts, and have money left over.

  • So you have a bubbly cycle. Investors sell stocks to each other,
    pushing up the price of the stocks as they go back and forth between
    buyers and sellers. Investors borrow money from each other to
    purchase stocks, or use stocks as margin collateral, and go more and
    more deeply into debt with one another, as money goes back and forth
    between borrowers and lenders.

That's what happened during the roaring 1920s, until October 28, 1929.
Then something happened, and there was a panic. What changed? Why
did a panic occur on that date, rather a few months earlier or later?
I've speculated that it was because that date was seven weeks after
third quarter earnings were announced, and those seven weeks were
enough for investors to understand that stocks were not going to
continue going up. But nobody knows for sure.

Whatever the reason, the mood of the public changed, almost overnight.
It was no longer a sure thing that stocks would go up forever. This
meant that any investor who had borrowed a great deal of money,
"knowing" that he could pay off the debt by selling higher priced
stock, suddenly did not know that, but he still had debts to pay off.

It's not surprising that public mood can change overnight. For
example, we know today that something that nobody heard of a month ago
suddenly "goes viral" and becomes extremely popular with the public.

So what happened in October 1929, when the public mood suddenly
changed from "the stock market will go up forever" to "it won't."
Here's a summary:
  • On October 28-29, the market fell 25%. We know from reports
    at the time that this was caused by people forced to sell assets to
    meet margin calls. These would presumably be the people who had gone
    most deeply in debt, thinking that stocks would go up forever, and now
    were forced to sell their most liquid assets to meed debt
    payments.

  • On October 30-31, the market rose 18%. These were people "buying
    the dip," still believing that stocks would go up forever.

  • There were further ups and downs, but overall, the market fell 90%
    by July 1932.

What happened after that was described by John Kenneth Galbraith in
his book The Great Crash - 1929:

Quote: "In the autumn of 1929 the New York Stock Exchange,
under roughly its present constitution, was 112 years old. During
this lifetime it had seen some difficult days. On September 18,
1873, the firm of Jay Cooke and Company failed, and, as a more or
less direct result, so did fifty-seven other stock exchange firms
in the next few weeks. On October 23, 1907, call money rates
reached 125 percent in the panic of that year. On September 16,
1920 -- the autumn months are the off season in Wall Street -- a
bomb exploded in front of Morgan's next door, killing thirty
people and injuring a hundred more.

A common feature of all these earlier troubles [[previous panics]]
was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably
recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of
1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day
like the end proved on the next day to have been only the
beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to
maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible
escaped the common misfortune.

The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin
call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met
that there would still be another. In the end all the money he
had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart
money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came,
naturally went back in to pick up bargains. ... The bargains then
suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of
October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return
to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce
market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value
drop to a third or fourth of the purchase price in the next
twenty-four months. ... The ruthlessness of [the stock market was]
remarkable. ...

Monday, October 28, was the first day on which this process of
climax and anticlimax ad infinitum began to reveal itself.
It was another terrible day. Volume was huge, although below the
previous Thursday -- nine and a quarter million shares as compared
withnearly thirteen. But the losses were far more severe.
... Indeed the decline on this one day was greater than that of
all the preceding week of panic. Once again a late ticker left
everyone in ignorance of what was happening, save that it was bad.

On this day there was no recovery."

I've referred to this in the past as The Principle of Maximum Ruin --
the maximum number of people were ruined to the maximum extent
possible. Stock prices fell steadily until mid-1932, having fallen a
total of 90%, and only then began to grow again, not reaching their
1929 highs again until 1952.

It's worthwhile reading Galbraith's account carefully, because it
shows how the public mood was changing rapidly:
  • Before October, the rule was: go further into debt to buy more
    stocks.

  • After October, it was: Sell more stocks to pay off debts.

  • Before October: People wanted to buy stocks, which pushed stock
    prices up.

  • After October: People were forced to sell stocks, which pushed
    stock prices down.

So that's why the stock market crashes, but why does that cause a
"deflation tsunami"? Because people in debt have to sell off their
assets to pay off the debts, and that pushes down the prices of the
assets, causing deflation. The most liquid assets go first, such as
stocks and money market instruments. After that, less liquid assets
have to be sold -- things like jewelry, art, gems, real estate, cars
and trucks, and today that would include bitcoin.

So debt repayments require forced asset sales and result in deflation.
Between 1930 and 1933, prices fell 10% per year.

Today, we're still in the "pre October 1929" world. Personal,
business and government debt has been surging constantly for decades.
American public debt is around $27 trillion, and this week the
Democrats passed a Christmas tree stimulus bill that will add almost
$2 trillion more. And the Democrats are promising more.

These debt levels are insane, but they're even more insane because
they're backed by an insane theory, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT),
that says that the government can borrow as much as it wants and
never has to pay it back.

Today the public mood is not only that stock prices will go up
forever, but also that debts will never have to be paid back.
Astronomical, dysfunctional prices for Tesla stock or Bitcoin are
perversely considered proof that stock prices will always go up, and
that asset values will always go up.

This is exactly what people believed prior to October 1929. Then the
public mood changed. Nobody could have predicted it, just as nobody
can predict that a new hashtag "goes viral" today. It happens out of
thin air, and nobody can explain it. And at some point the public
mood is going to change to believe that stocks won't go up forever, or
that public debts will have to be repaid. That's when the
"deflationary tsunami" will occur.

As the article by Charles Hugh Smith says:

Quote: "Speculative bubbles pop. All phantom wealth vanishes
back into the air it emerged from. Insolvent borrowers counting on
ever lower rates of interest and ever higher valuations
default. Lenders who leveraged up to loan gobs of "free money" to
uncreditworthy borrowers will be destroyed by the monumental
write-offs of uncollectible debts based on phantom valuations.

Those looking up from their "free fish!" frolicking will see the
tsunami too late to save themselves. None of the frolickers will
be able to outrun the tsunami or avoid being crushed as it sweeps
all the debris of a speculative mania into the flooded ruins
beyond the shoreline."

This article by Charles Hugh Smith is the first of its kind that I've
seen. It's not entirely inconceivable that this article is the first
sign that the public mood is beginning to change. Once a panic
begins, it will be too late for anyone to save himself.
Reply
** 11-Mar-2021 World View: Math is racist

richard5za Wrote:> My experience is that most people struggle with math and math
> logic; I'm not including calculus in this comment but I mean less
> advanced e.g. advanced arithmetic.

> I have no idea what percentage of people have bought BTC, but its
> an intriguing idea to match those who can do math to those who
> own, or don't own, BTC.

Forget calculus. Most college graduates today are too stupid to
do even fourth grade math, because they've been taking women's studies
or sociology or equivalent courses that teach you to be stupid.
In fact, most of them can't do second grade math.

For example: "Jack bought a tv set for $237.99. Jane bought a tv set
that was 27% less expensive. How much did Jane pay?"

That's a fairly simple fourth grade percentage problem, but it's
completely inscrutable to idiots like AOC and other college graduates
today.

That's why they're calling math "racist"." Because they're idiots.
Reply
** 11-Mar-2021 World View: UN Official: Myanmar military - Crimes Against Humanity

Arbitrary murders and arrests of people in Myanmar suspected of being
protesters has been increasing every day, to the point that the
"United Nations Special Rapporteur to Syria," Thomas Andrews, said on
Thursday:

Quote: "There is growing evidence that (the) Myanmar
military, led by the same senior leadership, is now likely
engaging in crimes against humanity, including acts of murder,
enforced disappearance, persecution, torture. ...

The country of Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal
regime.

There is extensive video evidence of security forces viciously
beating protesters, medics, and bystanders. There is video of
soldiers and police systematically moving through neighbourhoods,
destroying property, looting shops, arbitrarily arresting
protesters and passersby, and firing indiscriminately into
people’s homes."

Andrews implied that the UN would not be able to do anything about it,
which is true, since any action by the Security Council would be
vetoed by China. However, he called on individual countries to impose
sanctions on the junta leaders and on the military-owned Myanmar Oil
and Gas Enterprise, whose revenues from natural gas projects he said
were set to reach $1 billion this year.

---- Sources:

-- Myanmar Military Likely Behind 'Crimes Against Humanity': UN Expert
https://www.barrons.com/news/myanmar-mil...05?tesla=y
(AFP, 11-Mar-2021)

-- Thomas Andrews / U.N. rights expert says Myanmar death toll hits
70, seeks sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanm...B32GK?il=0
(Reuters, 11-Mar-2021)
Reply


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