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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Mar-17 World View -- Pope Francis apologizes for Catholic Church's role in 1994 Rwanda genocide

This morning's key headlines from
  • Pope Francis apologizes for Catholic Church's role in 1994 Rwanda genocide
  • A century of genocides

**** Pope Francis apologizes for Catholic Church's role in 1994 Rwanda genocide

[Image: g170320b.jpg]
Pope Francis meets Rwanda's president Paul Kagame on Monday (CNA)

In 1994, there were two major ethnic groups in Rwanda -- the Hutus and
the Tutsis. They had lived together for decades, had intermarried,
had their kids play games with each other and so forth.

The iconic genocidal war between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda and
Burundi in 1994 was the culmination of centuries of generational
crisis wars between the two tribes, where the Tutsis were the herders
who controlled the land, and the Hutus were the farmers who worked for
the Tutsis.

On April 6, a plane crash killed Juvenal Habyarimana, the president of
Rwanda, a Hutu, when the plane was shot down by an unknown assailant.
Next, a Hutu leader announced over the radio, "Cut down the tall
trees," referring to the Tutsis, who were generally taller than Hutus.
The radio announcement, which was heard all over the country, was some
sort of prearranged signal. On cue, each Hutu did something like the
following: Picked up a machete, went to the Tutsi home next door, or
down the street, murdered and dismembered the man and children, raped
the wife and then murdered and dismembered her.

Close to a million Tutsis were tortured, raped and murdered in a three
month period. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this
is the purest modern example of an "organic" or "indigenous" genocide,
as opposed to a government-ordered genocide such as is occurring today
in Syria. And in Rwanda, it made no difference that almost everyone
is Christian, mostly Catholic. All humans, of whatever religion, have
the same DNA.

Since 1994, relations between Rwanda and the Vatican have been stormy,
with the Tutsis accusing the Church of being close to the Hutus, and
for having participated in the massacres. Although some Hutu clergy
members helped the Tutsis, in other cases, Hutu clergy were
perpetrators. In some cases, the Hutu clergy ushered Tutsis into
church buildings, promising them security, and then allowed them to be

On Monday, Pope Francis met at the Vatican with Rwanda's president
Paul Kagame, and issued a statement apologizing on behalf of the
Catholic Church for the Church's involvement in the 1994 Rwanda

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In this context, the Pope conveyed his profound
> sadness, and that of the Holy See and of the Church, for the
> genocide against the Tutsi. He expressed his solidarity with the
> victims and with those who continue to suffer the consequences of
> those tragic events and ... he implored anew God’s forgiveness for
> the sins and failings of the Church and its members, among whom
> priests, and religious men and women who succumbed to hatred and
> violence, betraying their own evangelical mission. In light of the
> recent Holy Year of Mercy and of the Statement published by the
> Rwandan Bishops at its conclusion, the Pope also expressed the
> desire that this humble recognition of the failings of that
> period, which, unfortunately, disfigured the face of the Church,
> may contribute to a “purification of memory” and may promote, in
> hope and renewed trust, a future of peace, witnessing to the
> concrete possibility of living and working together, once the
> dignity of the human person and the common good are put at the
> centre."<END QUOTE>

Pope Francis referred to a statement published by the Rwandan Bishops
on November 20, 2016:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We apologize for all the wrongs the Church
> committed. We apologize on behalf of all Christians for all forms
> of wrongs we committed. We regret that church members violated
> (their) oath of allegiance to God’s commandments. ...
> Forgive us for the crime of hate in the country to the extent of
> also hating our colleagues because of their ethnicity. We didn’t
> show that we are one family but instead killed each
> other."<END QUOTE>

While the Bishops' statement was welcomed last November, the
government of Rwanda issued a stinging rebuke:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This step is welcome, as individual expressions of
> remorse. However, its profound inadequacy only serves to highlight
> how far the Catholic Church still remains from a full and honest
> reckoning with its moral and legal responsibilities.
> First, as they apologize on behalf of a few unnamed individuals,
> the bishops appear to take the extraordinary step of exonerating
> the Catholic Church as a whole for any culpability in connection
> with the Genocide. Everything in the historical record contradicts
> this divisive claim. ...
> Finally, given the scale of the crimes, there is ample
> justification for an apology from the Vatican, as has occurred
> repeatedly with other cases of lesser magnitude."<END QUOTE>

This rebuke led to the Pope's apology on Monday. Vatican Press Release and Catholic News Agency (21-Nov-2016) and Govt of Rwanda (23-Nov-2016)

Related Articles

**** A century of genocides

It is to the credit of the Catholic Church that the Pope is willing to
apologize for its part in the Rwanda genocide, even if it take over 20
years for the apology to occur.

However, the Rwanda genocide should remind us that what Generational
Dynamics tells us is true: That when it comes to genocide, every
ethnic group, every religious group, every geographic group, is the
same as every other. Indeed, if some religious or ethnic group
refused to commit genocide, then in a matter of one or two centuries
they would be exterminated by another group that wasn't so fastidious.

Whether a particular demographic group is involved in or inclined to
genocide or ethnic cleansing or atrocities depends on which
generational era its in. A group in a generational Awakening era,
like America in the 1960s, would be very reluctant to commit
atrocities, because the atrocities from the previous generational
crisis war would still be well remembered by its survivors. But as a
group goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, as the survivors of
the previous crisis war die off, as do the memories of the atrocities
that occurred during that war, then the population is more willing to
commit atrocities, ethnic cleansing and genocide.

People of the Muslim faith are most closely identified with atrocities
in the current era, which isn't surprising since almost every atrocity
in the news these days is almost always perpetrated by some Sunni
Muslim jihadist group. However, it's worth pointing out that of the
1.6 billion Muslims in the world, there are only a very small number,
probably in the thousands or tens of thousands, that support the
al-Qaeda and ISIS atrocities.

From the point of view of generational theory, this situation is
attributable to the fact most Sunni Muslim countries are deep into a
generation Crisis era, much more so than the Christian nations. The
reason is that their last crisis war for many Sunni Muslim nations was
not World War II, but was World War I, including the destruction of
the Ottoman Empire. This means that there are absolutely no Sunni
Muslim survivors remaining who remember the horrors and atrocities of
WW I, and the younger generations have no fear of repeating them.

People who say that there's a war by Muslims against Christians are
completely missing the point. It's true that jihadist groups
sometimes target Christians, but these are almost always little more
than gruesome publicity stunts. The number of Christians being killed
by Muslims is minuscule compared to the number of Muslims being killed
by Muslims. Jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda or to the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) are overwhelmingly
targeting other Muslims, and rarely Christians.

The genocide being perpetrated by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
serves as an example to distinguish between government-perpetrated
atrocities, for which al-Assad is responsible, and "organic"
atrocities, such as those committed by ISIS fighters or the Hutus in
Rwanda. As I've been reporting many times over the last couple of
years, al-Assad's army is supporting him only half-heartedly, with
massive numbers of desertions. Al-Assad himself said in 2015 that his
army was near defeat, but was saved by the Russians. Syria is not in
a generational Crisis era. It's in a generational Awakening era, and
the public supports the war half-heartedly, just as the American
public half-heartedly supported the Vietnam war in the 1960s.

From the point of view of generational theory, it's rare for a
genocide or ethnic cleansing to be purely organic or government-led,
but in an Awakening era it's going to be almost completely
government-led, while in a Crisis era, it will be "organic," whether
or not it's government led. In an Awakening era, the atrocities are
often perpetrated by a leader who refused to lead office, such as
we're seeing in Syria, Burundi, and Zimbabwe.

Two modern special cases are worth mentioning. In the Central African
Republic (CAR), there are atrocities being committed on both sides, by
both Muslims and Christians. CAR's last crisis war climaxed in 1932,
so the country is well into a generational Crisis era, and that
affects both the Christian and Muslim population.

The other special case is occurring in Myanmar (Burma), in the early
stages of a generational Crisis era, where Buddhists, led by Buddhist
monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," are conducting atrocities
targeting the Rohingya Muslims, including rapes, torture and other
atrocities committed by Buddhists, targeting the Rohingyas. The
Rohingyas have a darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali
dialect. The actions by the Buddhists were similar to the actions by
the Nazis against the Jews.

So it's good that the Catholic Church has apologized for its
participation in the 1994 Rwanda genocide, although it took over 20
years for the apology to be forthcoming. Perhaps in another 20 years,
some Muslim clerics will apologize for the atrocities being committed
today in the name of Islam.

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pope Francis, Vatican, Rwanda, Paul Kagame,
Hutus, Tutsis, Juvenal Habyarimana, al-Qaeda,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Central African Republic, Burundi, Zimbabwe,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, 969 movement, Rohingyas

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
Web site:
Subscribe to World View:
*** 22-Mar-17 World View -- Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul

This morning's key headlines from
  • UN's humanitarian agencies overwhelmed as hundreds of thousands flee Mosul
  • Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul

**** UN's humanitarian agencies overwhelmed as hundreds of thousands flee Mosul

[Image: g170321b.jpg]
Iraqi security forces advance during fighting against ISIS militants in western Mosul (AP)

Iraq's government forces continue to make territorial gains in west
Mosul as they continue to battle to flush fighters from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) out of their last urban
stronghold in Iraq. West Mosul is the densely populated portion of
the city located on the west bank of the Tigris River, which divides
the city.

Iraq army began its Mosul offensive in October, with support from US
artillery. The fight to eject ISIS from east Mosul has already been
mostly completed.

Mosul had an estimated population of two million before ISIS took it
over in June 2014 in a lightning assault. Since then, many Iraqis
have fled, but somewhere between 750,000 and one million are thought
to remain in west Mosul. Many of these people are trapped in west
Mosul, because ISIS is shooting and killing any families that try to

Unlike east Mosul, the streets in west Mosul are too narrow for
armored vehicles, and any use of heavy weapons puts civilian lives in
danger. So extremely bloody house to house fighting is required, with
many homes booby-trapped with bombs by ISIS.

More than 180,000 people have already fled west Mosul. About 111,000
have sought shelter in refugee camps. The government says that it can
accommodate a further 100,000 displaced people in camps.

However, the UN is saying that the numbers could rise far above that,
and could overwhelm the UN's humanitarian agencies. According to the
UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
"Humanitarian agencies are bracing for the possibility that an
additional 300,000-320,000 civilians may flee in coming weeks."

According to Lise Grande, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq:
"We have been preparing for the Mosul operation for months, but the
magnitude of the crisis has exceeded our expectations, but we will do
our best to ensure that people are helped.

Grande says that the situation in east Mosul was different:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The main difference is that tens of thousands of
> families stayed in their homes in the east. In the west, tens of
> thousands are fleeing.
> If the number of people leaving the city increases faster than we
> can construct new plots, the situation could deteriorate very
> quickly."<END QUOTE>

Analysts expect the fighting in Mosul to last a few more weeks, if not
months. Middle East Monitor and AFP and Euro News and Gulf Times

**** Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul

The American-led coalition that fought the Iraq war in the early 2000s
was blamed and continues to be blamed for the crisis that followed the
war, which was attributed to inadequate planning. Fears are
increasing that the same problem will occur after ISIS is defeated in

Australian analysts are expressing the fear that ISIS jihadists will
go back to their home countries or to other countries and continue the
fight there. According to Greg Barton, professor of Global Islamic
Politics at Deakin University:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We’re looking at a very grim future for the Middle
> East. If the government of Iraq can get its act together, they
> have half a chance of making things better, but we have every
> reason to worry that won’t be the case.
> “We may well see ISIS forces coming back as we’ve seen Taliban
> forces in Afghanistan. We’ve been constantly underestimating
> strength and capacity, I think we’ll be repeating that error again
> and again."<END QUOTE>

Canada has been supporting the Kurdish peshmerga forces in Iraq with
training, weapons and equipment, and now face the possibility that
this support will backfire on Canada.

With Canadian support, the Iraqi Kurds have taken control with land
regions during the fight to eject ISIS from Mosul, and they are not
going to be willing to give them back. In November 2015, Canada's
prime minister Justin Trudeau was warned about the potential long-term
consequences of supporting the Kurds:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Should the (ISIS) threat recede, Baghdad will have to
> contend with a range of land disputes with the (Kurdish regional
> government), as well as strengthened Iraqi Kurdish forces, which
> have received training and equipment from coalition members,
> including Canada."<END QUOTE>

Three months later, the government announced it would triple the
number of Canadian military trainers in northern Iraq and provide
weapons to the Kurds.

Many in Canada are watching to see whether the Kurds plan to demand
independence from the rest of Iraq, as their leaders have promised.
This would lead to a major political crisis in Iraq, and possibly
another war.

Furthermore, it will cause political chaos in Canada as well. It will
be used as an argument for activists in Canada's own sovereigntist
movement (Mouvement souverainiste du Québec), which is demanding
independence for the province of Quebec. (Australia) and CTV (Canada)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tigris River,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lise Grande, Australia, Greg Barton, Kurdish peshmerga,
Canada, Justin Trudeau, Mouvement souverainiste du Québec, Quebec

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
Web site:
Subscribe to World View:
*** 23-Mar-17 World View -- Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon'

This morning's key headlines from
  • Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon'
  • Skeptics claim that CPEC will only benefit China, not Pakistan
  • Pakistan will use dark financing to cover the cost of protecting Chinese workers

**** Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon'

[Image: g170322b.jpg]
Chinese coal-fired power plant (Reuters)

Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan's Federal Minister for Planning and Development,
says that Pakistan's energy crisis will soon be over, thanks to the
announcement of the first project in the $55 billion 20-year
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

At a ground-breaking ceremony for two 660-megawatt coal-fired power
plants in Pakistan's Balochistan province, he welcomed China's initial
$2 billion investment, and said that they would be completed within
two years. He said that these power plans would be equipped with the
latest technology to generate electricity at low costs. The plants
will burn 3.8 million tons of coal per year, and would generate 9
billion kWh of electricity per year.

“We are grateful to the Chinese for their help,” said Iqbal,
describing CPEC as a "colossal project" that would be an important
milestone not only for Pakistan, but "for the entire region."

Over 10-20 years, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project
will build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to
connect western Chinese cities, starting from Kashgar in China's
Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. It
will have both economic and military components. Power generation,
transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be
increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the US, India,
Russia and Iran. The development of CPEC is one more step along that
trend line. Pakistan Today and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan) and MWC

**** Skeptics claim that CPEC will only benefit China, not Pakistan

Many Pakistanis are pointing to a similar "gift" by China to Sri Lanka
that turned into a financial disaster for Sri Lanka. As we described in January,
China invested
$1.2 billion in a Sri Lanka seaport on the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the
port, but instead the port lost money, and the government faced a
disastrous debt. Sri Lanka's government was forced to give China a
99-year lease to take over the port, as a debt repayment. In
addition, China will lease 15,000 acres in the region for an
industrial zone for Chinese factories. Opponents say that thousands
of people will lose their homes because of the project. They say that
China will establish a "Chinese colony" on Sri Lankan soil that will
grow and can never be removed.

With Sri Lanka's experience in mind, senator Syed Tahir Hussain
Mashhadi said that the Chinese and Pakistan governments had failed to
spell out what benefits would come to Pakistan. "China is our brother,
but business is business."

Mashhadi said that Pakistan should repeat the mistake it made with
Nato in conjunction with the Afghanistan war. Military supplies for
Nato arrive at Pakistan's port in Karachi, and then travel in huge
trucks and tankers over Pakistan's highways and roads, ruining them,
according to Mashhad, with Pakistan getting nothing in return for the
damage they caused. According to Mashhadi:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Thousands of vehicles will cross the CPEC and there
> must be an agreement as to who will bear the roads and highways
> maintenance cost.
> It should also be made very clear as to who would get job
> opportunities in CPEC-related projects. Would Pakistani laborers
> and youth get jobs or mostly Chinese people would be engaged and
> get jobs in CPEC-related projects?"<END QUOTE>

In fact, he was informed that only Chinese industrialists would be
allowed to set up their industries in the proposed economic zones
along the corridor.

Further studies by Pakistani analysts had led to the conclusions that,
based on interest rates normally charged by China Development Bank and
China EXIM Bank, the cost of borrowing will surge to 13%, including
insurance costs.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Where will the benefit be for Pakistan? Will the
> Chinese give us some share of the profit? We are informed that
> Chinese banks charge us more interest than any other international
> bank."<END QUOTE>

The CPEC project will also bring about substantial demographic changes
in the province of Balochistan. The Baloch people are Shia Muslims of
Iranian descent, and have been the targets of numerous bloody
terrorist attacks by terror groups linked to the Pakistan Taliban and
to al-Qaeda. In addition, they've suffered economic discrimination
within Pakistan itself.

According to estimates from the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of
Commerce and Industry, the CPEC project will result in an inflow of
more than 600,000 Chinese people -- Chinese workers and their families
-- diluting that Baloch population. Baloch activists claim that
whatever economic benefits the CPEC project will bring to Pakistan,
most of the benefits will go to the favored Punjab province. The CPEC
project will use up all of Balochistan's natural resources, and the
Baloch people will get nothing from it.

These are issues and questions whose resolution may not be
forthcoming, in the current euphoria over the ground-breaking for the
two 660-megawatt coal-fired power plants. Dawn (Pakistan, 1-Mar) and
India Tribune and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Newsgram

Related Articles

**** Pakistan will use dark financing to cover the cost of protecting Chinese workers

On October 24 of last year, at least 61 people, mostly fresh police
recruits, were killed and 117 injured in a terror attack on a Police
Training cottage in Quetta, the capital of the province of Balochistan
in Pakistan, and close to the location of the future coal-fired power
plant. The attackers were thought to be Afghan Uzbeks, affiliated
with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

ETIM is only one several jihadists terror groups that have been
attacking Shia Muslim targets in Balochistan. Besides groups
affiliated with the Pakistani Taliban, there are other groups
affiliated with ETIM, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU), the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and
other activist groups from the Uighur community in China's Xinjiang
province, where the CPEC corridor will originate.

With 600,000 Chinese workers entering Pakistan every year, CPEC
projects and Chinese workers will with certainty be a target of ETIM.
Pakistan is creating a Special Security Division (SDD), a special
force of 15,000 police, army and paramilitary troops, charged with the
"security of Chinese on CPEC and non-CPEC projects." A successful
terrorist attack on CPEC could halt the project for months.

All this security is going to cost $155 million. In order to raise
this money, Pakistan plans to add these costs to people's utility

Security has been a major concern for the Chinese, and they have
emphasized this repeatedly. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (12-March)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, Baloch, Ahsan Iqbal,
China, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Kashgar, Xinjiang, Gwardar port, Sri Lanka,
Syed Tahir Hussain Mashhadi, Nato, Karachi, Afghanistan,
Pakistan Taliban, al-Qaeda, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
Web site:
Subscribe to World View:

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