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*** 17-Jul-21 World View -- Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A year after port disaster, Lebanon still can't form a government
  
• World Bank: Lebanon among the worst economic disasters since 1857
  
• Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government
  

****
**** A year after port disaster, Lebanon still can't form a government
****


Aftermath of August 4, 2020, port explosion in Beirut Lebanon (Reuters)

Lebanon continued its path to self-destruction on Thursday, when Saad
al-Hariri, who had been designated to form the first government
following the massive port explosion in Beirut on August 4 of last
year, resigned.

He offered his resignation after meeting with Lebanon's President
Michel Aoun. According to Hariri, Hariri's attempts to form a
government were thwarted by Aoun, who demanded that Hariri change his
proposed slate of ministers so that Iran-backed Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah would have a "blocking third," which means that
Nasrallah could veto any proposal of any other sect of the government,
giving Nasrallah effective dictatorial control of the government.

Hariri has been prime minister three times in the past, but resigned
in 2019, complaining that massive corruption was destroying the
country's economy. Shortly after the port blast, Hariri agreed to
return if he were allowed to choose his government cabinet ministers.
In his statement on Thursday, he said:

<QUOTE>"I withdrew from forming the government. Aoun
demanded some amendments, which he considered essential, and said
we will not be able to reach an understanding with each
other. ... And may God save this country.

I resigned in 2019 because I wanted a government of experts, and
if we formed Michel Aoun’s government then the country won’t be
saved.

The main problem of this country is Michel Aoun, who is allied
with Hezbollah, who in turn protects him. This is the equation in
the country and if someone can’t see it then they’re
blind."<END QUOTE>

Incredibly, a year has gone by since the port explosion, and the
corrupt politicians running the country have done nothing except
continue to line their own pockets.

The economy had been in free fall even before the explosion, with a
crashing currency and an unemployment rate above 30%.

About 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer had been left
unprotected, sitting in a storage warehouse since 2013, adjacent to a
fireworks factory, in the midst of a densely packed residential area.
Later investigations showed that Hezbollah had been using the ammonium
nitrate fertilizer to build bombs to be used in Syria. When the
explosion occurred, 300,000 people lost their homes from the
explosion, hundreds were killed, and thousands were wounded. 85% of
the country's grain storage was destroyed. Several hospitals were
destroyed. The explosion was far larger than anyone had ever seen,
and property was damaged and windows broken all across the city, and
for miles around. The explosion could be heard as far away as Cyprus.

The explosion was massive and destructive, but apparently not
destructive enough to shake loose Iran-backed Hezbollah's control of
Lebanon.

****
**** World Bank: Lebanon among the worst economic disasters since 1857
****

According to the World Bank in a report published in March, Lebanon's
financial crisis is among the top ten, and possibly the top 3, in
world history in the period since 1857 to the present. According to
the report:

<QUOTE>"In fact, Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55
billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020, with US$
GDP/ capita falling by around 40 percent. Such a brutal and rapid
contraction is usually associated with conflicts or wars. ... This
illustrates the magnitude of the economic depression that the
country is enduring, with sadly no clear turning point on the
horizon, given the disastrous deliberate policy inaction.

[In Fall 2020], the World Bank [termed] Lebanon’s economic crisis
The Deliberate Depression. For over a year, Lebanese authorities
countered an assailment of compounded crises -- namely, the
country’s largest peace-time economic and financial crisis,
COVID-19 and the Port of Beirut explosion -- with deliberately
inadequate policy responses. The inadequacy is less due to
knowledge gaps and quality advice and more the result of a
combination of (i) a lack of political consensus over effective
policy initiatives; and (ii) political consensus in defense of a
bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for so long. In
the face of these challenges, Lebanon lacks a fully-functioning
executive authority and is currently in the process of forming its
third Government in a little over a year. This debilitating
institutional void has lasted over 8 months so far."<END QUOTE>

In other words:

• The financial crisis occurred in peacetime, but was worse than
  usually occurs in all out war.
  
• The response to the port explosion was "deliberately
  inadequate."
  
• The politicians benefited from a bankrupt economic
  system.

During the last year, nothing has changed. The year has simply been
wasted by government officials, especially Aoun and Nasrallah, who
don't want anything to change.

In August of last year, after the port explosion, France's president
Emmanuel Macron led an international conference which pledged nearly
$300 million in humanitarian assistance. However, the money was
withheld until a reform government could be formed, because otherwise
the $300 million would simply go into the pockets of the politicians
and their cronies.

A month later, there was no movement to reform. Macron said at a news
conference, "I’m ashamed of the Lebanese political leaders. Ashamed."
He accused them of “collective betrayal” and choosing “to favor their
partisan and individual interests to the general detriment of the
country.”

The main stumbling block, then and today, was that the Shiite sect
demanded complete control of the finance ministry, which means that
Nasrallah would be able to use Lebanon's treasury for any purpose he
wanted. What always happens in situations like these is that
Nasrallah and Hezbollah don't dare to open the books of the finance
ministry to scrutiny, since that would reveal years of robbery,
embezzlement and corruption that had previously been hidden.

****
**** Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government
****

In the past few months I've become aware of the brilliance of the US
Constitution and its ability to withstand these kinds of crises. This
is because of its system of checks and balances among the three
branches of government at the federal level, and the checks and
balances between the federal governments and the state governments. I
expect the US Constitutional form of government to withstand the
current attack, especially as vote audits in Arizona, Georgia and
other states are revealing what actually happened in the 2020
election. These audits could not be occurring except for the checks
and balances in the US Constitution.

However, there are no checks and balances whatsoever in Lebanon's
government, and that's why corruption is out of control and why the
country is unable to form a government in the wake of the massive
explosion that leveled much of Beirut -- an explosion that is the
fault of incompetence and corruption in Lebanon's government.

Lebanon has a "dynastic confessional" system of government. Lebanon's
"confessional" system of government is defined in its constitution,
which requires that the three main government offices be occupied by
specific sectarian groups:

• The president, currently Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac
  Maronite Catholic. Michel Aoun is 83 years old.
  
  
• The speaker of parliament must be a Shia Muslim. The current
  speaker is Nabih Berri, who has held the position since 1992. The
  Shia Muslim sect in Lebanon is controlled by the terrorist militia
  Hezbollah, which is led by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
  
  
• The prime minister, must be a Sunni Muslim. Saad al-Hariri was
  designated for this position, following the resignation of Hassan Diab
  after the August 4 explosion a year ago. Hassan Diab has stayed on in
  a caretaker capacity until political leaders can agree on a new
  premier.

So there are three "branches" of government in Lebanon, but there are
no checks and balances, since the leader of each branch can do
whatever he wants, including skimming money and paying his cronies to
do things like beat up people in the opposition, and there is nothing
to stop them. That's why each branch forms a kind of "dynasty."

As time goes on, each sect creates its own dynasty within the section
of government that it controls. So one way to think of Lebanon's
government is, not as a simple dictatorship, but as a triple
dictatorship, which each dynastic sect have complete dictatorial
control over one part of government, with complete power of
embezzlement and corruption, and no controls, no checks, no balances.

This system of government was set up that way for a reason. The sects
that I've mentioned -- the Sunni Muslims, the Shia Muslims, and the
Syriac Maronite Catholics -- consider people in any but there own sect
to be "scum of the earth." The different sects of Lebanon are not
capable of simply getting along with each other. The level of mutual
hatred between the sects runs extremely deep. This is standard fare
after an ethnic civil war in any country.

Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the civil war of
1975-90, mainly between Muslims versus Christians, killing some
200,000 people. A major event occurred on September 15-16, 1982, when
Maronite Christian militias massacred 2-3,000 Palestinian civilians in
the Sabra and Shatila Palestinian refugee camps. This act has haunted
Lebanon to this day.

That was 40 years ago. Most of the people today vividly remember the
horror of that mass slaughter, and many are still traumatized by it.
And they still hate each other for it. So the "confessional" form of
government in Lebanon was designed to keep the three sects as separate
as possible -- the complete opposite of mutual checks and balances.
No sect will have any say over what the other sects do, even when it's
corruption or other criminal activity.

If I understand correctly the reason given by al-Hariri for resigning
from his appointment to form a government is that he was trying to
break through this confessional blockade so that the government could
actually function.

Even though the port explosion was massive and horrific, it wasn't bad
enough to cause Hezbollah chief Nasrallah to give up any of his
dictatorial power. Better to let the people starve.

Sources:

• France announces aid conference for Lebanon as Hariri abandons bid to form govt (France24, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon’s PM-designate Saad Hariri resigns as crisis escalates (Al-Jazeera, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon spins further into crisis as Hariri abandons bid to form government (Reuters, 15-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon's Hariri says President Aoun wanted blocking minority - Al Jadeed TV (Reuters, 15-Jul-2021)
  
• Emmanuel Macron to host new international conference on Lebanon August 4 (AFP, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Emmanuel Macron / France to host Lebanon aid event on anniversary of port disaster (Al-Jazeera, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon aid summit raises $300m to be given ‘directly’ to people (Al-Jazeera, 9-Aug-2020)
  
• Macron ‘ashamed’ of Lebanon’s political leaders amid crisis (AP, 28-Sep-2020)
  
• Riots in Lebanon as West calls for quick Cabinet formation (AP, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Macron to host new international conference on Lebanon Aug 4 (Daily Star, Beirut, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon days away from ‘social explosion’, PM Diab warns (Al-Jazeera, 6-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Lebanon Sinking (to the Top 3) (World Bank, 31-May-2021)
  
• LEBANON ECONOMIC MONITOR Lebanon Sinking (To the Top 3) Spring 2021 (World Bank, PDF, 31-May-2021)

Related Articles:

• Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion (09-Aug-2020)
  
  
• Lebanon: A country in free fall (17-Jul-2020)
  
  
• Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses (19-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war (02-Sep-2019)
  
  
• Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend (31-Aug-2019)
  
  
• How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
  
  
• Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Saad al-Hariri, Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer,
Iran, France, Emmanuel Macron,
World Bank, confessional government, Nabih Berri, Hassan Diab

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John J. Xenakis
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** 17-Jul-2021 World View: Lying "Progressives"

Bob Butler" Wrote:> The problem is not with the clarity of what I say, but with your
> inability to understand it or describe your position clearly. It
> is not that progressives lie, but that conservatives do not want
> to acknowledge the principles progressives speak. All men are
> created equal. All men are imbued with certain rights. All men
> should receive equal treatment under law. Etc... These are not
> lies, but principles that conservatives routinely prefer to
> ignore.

No, you're the one who is lying, because of your inability to understand
what America is all about:

• Freedom of speech
  
• Freedom of religion
  
• Freedom of press
  
• Freedom of assembly
  
• Freedom of self-defense
  
• Freedom to expect a fair trial
  
• Free and fair elections

You lying Democrats would discard any of these freedoms to impose your
Stalinist Fascist view of government -- you can't speak if you support
Trump, you can't own a gun, you have to perform abortions even if you
think they're murder, you can be jailed without charges and put into
solitary confinement for months if you were peacefully protesting on
January 6, you have hundreds of girls packed into a lice-infested tent
in Texas, you teach racial hatred in schools, you have thousands of
young blacks killing each other on the streets of Chicago and other
Democrat cities, and you want to rig all the elections.

Democrats used to be decent. But today, they're trying to destroy the
US Constitution. Everything they do is sickening, and nothing they do
is shocking or surprising any more. They are as vicious and evil as
the Nazis, the Soviets, the Chinese Communists, and any other horrific
regime you can think of.

• The ideal Democrat society

** 18-Jul-2021 World View: Freedom of Speech

I don't have the time to respond to your long list of narratives, most
of which are troll garbage. I'll just respond to the simplest one.

Bob Butler" Wrote:> Freedom of Speech. There is a difference between political speech
> and planning a criminal act. On this site I see lots of political
> speech, little to no criminal activity. By rights, there should
> be no censorship. Surprise, there is no censorship, other than by
> yourself of course.

This is so evil, and the fact that this doesn't even occur to you
shows what a deeply evil person you are.

You were responding to "you can't speak if you support Trump," and
you've translated that into "you can't speak if you're planning a
criminal act."

Well, Trump isn't planning any criminal act except in the
hallucinatory minds of people like you and Milley. Also, the 75
million Trump supporters are not planning any criminal acts. The
people who ARE planning criminal acts are people like antifa-blm who
have been burning down cities, but those criminal acts are perfectly
okay with you.

You and the Democrats are no different than Hitler or Stalin or any of
the other evil butchers. Hitler didn't say, "The Jews are nice guys
but we're going to kill them all anyway." Hitler said, "The Jews are
criminals, so we're going to kill them all." That's how people like
the Nazis and the Democrats operate. They manufacture crimes, make
false accusations, and then jail or kill the people they're accusing.

There was no "insurrection" on January 6. We now know that the whole
thing was staged by Nancy Pelosi. There were no weapons found on
January 6, except by those of the Capitol police. Nobody was killed
on January 6 except Ashli Babbitt, a pretty young girl just walking
through the Capitol building. Her crime? She was a Trump supporter.
That's why she got shot in the head and killed by Lt. Michael L. Byrd,
a black officer of the Capitol police, on the staff of Nancy Pelosi.
Needless to say, Pelosi isn't being censored, despite her thoroughly
criminal activity.

So the "insurrection" was staged by Nancy Pelosi, and Ashli Babbitt
was killed by a person on Nancy Pelosi's staff. Byrd is not being
punished, but dozens of Trump supporters have been jailed and put into
the solitary confinement for months. But that's perfectly ok with
you, because you're an evil asshole. There's no excuse for people
like you and the Democrats.

The above only covers the so-called "criminal activity" around January
6. Facebook has been censoring lots of things that have nothing to do
with January 6 but make the Democrats look bad. These include things
like ivermectin, hydroxychloroquin, Hunter's laptop, and the Wuhan lab
leak theory. So for you and the Democrats, censorship is not about
criminal activity or "the truth." It's about censoring any political
opinion the Democrats dislike.

And now we have this farcical situation where Biden is calling
Facebook a killer (Lol!), and they want to spy on all facebook
users and punish any "misinformation." This is just the next
step to punishing any opinion that the Biden administration
doesn't like. This is exactly what Hitler, Stalin, Putin,
and many others have done. It's part of the Standard Genocide
Playbook.

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210112


You and Brower are nothing but evil Democrat party trolls, possibly
paid trolls. Your purpose in joining this forum has always been to
destroy it from within. In the past, you've often expressed your
utter contempt for the members of this forum, based on some "tribal
thinking" nonsense you've concocted. If you had the power, you would
not hesitate to manufacture some accusation and use it to arrest the
people of this forum, and get it censored or canceled.

A final point about free speech and criminality. The US
Constitution's guarantee about Freedom of Speech does not distinguish
between ordinary people and hallucinatory criminals or even real
criminals. The First Amendment guarantees Freedom of Speech to
everyone, even to criminals. The fact that you can't see that shows
what deeply evil people you and the Democrats are.

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: China a leaky boat

Guest Wrote:> China needs land bridges to attack Japan: either sweep through
> Korea and then land troops in Fukoka or take Taiwan and start
> island hopping north.

> China's military is substandard. Everything about it is. The
> officer corps is highly politicized and deeply corrupt. The PLA
> runs factories and exports goods. The original intent was to build
> their own supply chains, but instead they use the manufacting
> ability to produce plastic junk for Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

> China will use nukes quickly because they know there army is 3rd
> rate. Also, the ethnic composition of the army WILL cause
> problems. China is a leaky boat.

This adds to my general impression, that has been growing in my mind
for years, that the Chinese Communists are becoming increasingly
desperate, and have no way to deal with the increasing number of
crises.

Articles and analysts discussing China's policies usually say
something like "it makes sense for the Chinese to do this or that" or
"China's strategy is such and such." My view is that the Chinese
Communists have no strategy, except to build more and more weapons
systems, and they're simply striking out in any direction. A major
example of this is that China has 21 active border dispute with
neighboring countries. That's insane.

There's one more thing that I'm very suspicious about -- the spread of
Covid within China. My suspicion is not based on evidence. It's
based on the lack of reports. The delta variant is spreading through
Asia like wildfire, but we don't hear anything about China, or about
its spread through China's military.

What I do hear about is that China's vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm.
There are many suspicions in Asia that these vaccines aren't very
effective, and so they wouldn't be very effective within China either.

*** Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia?
*** https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57845644

*** Indonesia is the new COVID epicentre, so some are heading
*** to the US to skip the vaccine queue
*** https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/a.../100288904

So all of this contributes to a view of incompetence, or the "leaky
boat" analogy that you used.

Unfortunately, that just makes China more dangerous. A cornered,
desperate animal is the most dangerous of all, and most likely to
strike out and try to kill you.

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Invading Japan

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> Invading Japan would be exceedingly difficult because China
> doesn't have sufficient amphibious troop lift and also would not
> be able to achieve air superiority for other than short
> periods. Plus the fact that everyone in the neighborhood is buying
> anti-ship missiles like they're on sale.

So this is exactly the reason why the "Japan Exception Theory" is
being advanced. The Chinese Communists would not invade Japan with
troops. Instead, they would "invade" Japan with continuous nuclear
bombing. It's obvious that China would do this, since Japan has no
nuclear weapons, and couldn't respond.

However, it's interesting that Japan has displayed a "Screw you - just
try it" attitude. I keep talking about the Chinese thirst for revenge
against Japan, but I also have the impression that the Japanese are
thirsting for a repeat of its war against China. The people in these
two countries REALLY hate each other, and they're willing to show it.

*** 16-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear war
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=62633#p62633

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: More on invading Japan

utahbob Wrote:> John, You might find this interesting. Written by a Chinese expat
> living in NYC and Australia. Confirms your China versus Japan with
> update CCP policy
> changes.
> https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/20...l-strategy

The article contains this quote from a Chinese military official:

Quote:> "When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene
> by force, even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane and one
> ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire, but also start a
> full-scale war against Japan. We will use nuclear bombs first. We
> will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares
> unconditional surrender for the second time.

> What we want to target is Japan’s ability to endure a war. As long
> as Japan realizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war,
> it will not dare to rashly send troops to the Taiwan Strait."

Once again, this is totally delusional. The Japanese have an enormous
amount of conventional warfare capability, and they might even be able
to defeat the Chinese without nuclear weapons. At any rate, there is
absolutely no possibility that "Japan declares unconditional surrender
for the second time." The Japanese will fight to the last bullet.

Not to mention that it wouldn't be long before the US got involved.

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Madness

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Yes there is, yet I'm not timing it either. Technology is
> different. No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
> biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse. The degree of
> madness is higher than ever, and globalists have greater control
> than they ever did. Now, as you know very well, and think it will
> happen to boot, we have nuclear weapons that can cause
> unimaginable damage.

Is that really true? Is this really the "maddest" time in history? I
can't prove it, but I believe that the degree of madness is high
during every generational Crisis era. The reason is that the Artist
archetype generation (in our case, the Silents) are the only sane ones
and they keep the younger generations (Boomer, Gen-X) in line. But
when the Silents disappear (retire or die), then sanity also
disappears, and we get madness.

One of my favorite anecdotes, which I believe you'll appreciate, is
that when the Muslims were approaching the center of Constantinople
for the final conquest of the Byzantine Empire in 1453, it is said
that the people of the Senate were having a lengthy political debate
about whether angels are male or female.

So you say, "No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse." I agree that's
total madness, but is it really less mad than debating whether angels
are male or female?

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare
- but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Global refugees

Burner Prime" Wrote:> But don't worry, when WWIII hits, according to John, the global
> refugees from every third world country will magically stop doing
> what they always do, FLEE, and will hunker down, lock arms with
> the infidel US troops, and bravely fight to the death to defend
> the Western way of life. Even though they hate the decadent and
> faithless West, have no fear they will fight and die for Brittany,
> Hip Hop, porn, vidya games and apple pie, because reasons.

According to me? I don't recall ever writing anything about global
refugees. When WW III hits, they'll magically continue going anywhere
they can to feed their families.

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Technology Today

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Good questions. There are definite similarities, and decadence and
> decay in general are part of these things - you are correct.

> What I think you do not deny in this vein, however, is that the
> world is increasingly smaller in the sense of globalism and
> manipulation through tech - and you yourself also are claiming the
> exponential advance of technology in general. I think it is smart
> to keep in mind that humans are the same and therefore things do
> rhyme - I accept and agree - but I'm pointing out that it is
> remarkably different right now for mostly tech and war potential,
> moving ahead.

> What's more, sovereign world debt in this spirit of the age is
> totally corrupt and there isn't much balance; mostly everyone is
> doing the same thing. The switch to fiat currencies, something
> that is NEW historically (yes this time it is different) has a
> logical conclusion [I'd actually argue an inevitability] in a one
> world gov't / fiat system.

> Think about it.

What you're advocating is a universally accepted view that I almost
totally disagree with. The core events -- wars, refugees, poverty,
financial crises -- are the same throughout history, with only changes
in irrelevant details.

Let's take your "sovereign world debt" example. Are you kidding me?
You've heard of Tulipomania, haven't you? At its peak, the price of a
tulip equalled the price of a small house. Talk about inflation!

So there was no technology then, but there's lots of technology today.
But what do the two eras have in common that will result in a
financial crash today that is like the financial crash of 1637? The
answer is securitization of debt.

I don't know why people don't understand this, but fiat currencies are
completely irrelevant, because anyone -- ANYONE -- can create money by
means of securitization of debt.

Suppose I have $100 and you have nothing, so there is a total of $100
in the world. I lend you $100 and you give me an IOU for $100.
Suddenly, you have $100 and I have $100, in the form of a security.
So there is a total of $200 in the world, and we've "printed" an extra
$100.

Now suppose person C also you lends you $100, and you give him an IOU
for $100. Now there's $400 in the world.

Person C believes that you're going to be rich and convinces person D
that your IOU is really worth $200, and sells it to him for $200.

Question: How much money do I have?

Let's take an inventory:

* You have $200 that was lent to you by me and person C
* Person C has $200 that he received from person D
* Person D has a security (IOU) produced by you, worth $200.
* I also have $200, since the market value of your IOU is increased.

So I've made $100 by doing nothing. At the start, there was $200
in the world (me and C), and at the end there was $800.

In today's world, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in the
world mostly in the form of securities. In 1637, there were huge
amounts of money floating around in the form of "tulip futures":
certificates that could be exchanged for a tulip to be grown the
following spring. This came to be known as windhandel (the
wind trade), because the tulip bulbs were never delivered and the
money was never paid. The financial collapse led directly into the 30
years war.

*** 29-Feb-2020 World View: Evaluating historical data
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...407#p50407

** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...071009.htm


The sovereign debt example went on longer than I expected, so I'll
just summarize the other examples.

I just wrote an article on the crisis in Lebanon, and the crisis is
due entirely to the conflicts between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and
Maronite Christians -- and these differences go back centuries and
have nothing to do with technology.

I just wrote an article on South Africa, and the crisis is caused by
tribal differences between Zulus, Xhosa, Venda and other tribes, which
has nothing to do with technology, and may result in a repeat of the
Mfecane.

The Chinese and Japanese people vitriolically hate each other. That's
been true for centuries, and has nothing to do with technology.

In summary, technology has nothing to do with what's important in the
world today.

** 20-Jul-2021 World View: Japan's plutonium

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> Interestingly:

> https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukush...ppy-n48976
> https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukush...ium-n49376

Quote:> Already, Japan has 9.3 metric tons of plutonium stored at Rokkasho
> and nine other sites in the island nation, along with around 35
> tons of plutonium stored in France and the United
> Kingdom. Altogether, Japan has the fifth-largest plutonium
> stockpile of any nation, representing 9 percent of the world’s
> stocks under civilian control. The figure includes 730 pounds of
> high-grade plutonium, the kind preferred by weapons designers,
> that Japan has agreed to send to the United States.

> It is speculated Japan could produce a nuclear bomb within 6
> months.

You're absolutely right to point that out. In fact, I would take the
speculation one step further. I could well believe that the Japanese
have manufactured the nuclear weapons, perhaps with technical help
from the Americans or the Indians, but haven't yet inserted the
plutonium. That way, they can claim that they still have no nuclear
weapons, but they might be able to complete the manufacture within a
few days, when the time comes.

I don't have any evidence of that. I'm just saying that it wouldn't
surprise me.

** 21-Jul-2021 World View: Japan's Plutonium inventory

The article below, written in 2018, is a far-left analysis of Japan's
plutonium inventory. It's highly hostile to Japan, and completely
ignores Japan's self-defense needs and its need to support Taiwan in
case of a Chinese invasion. Nonetheless, it's a very interesting
discussion of the history of Japan's plutonium stock, and current
status:

Quote:> "The JAEC has correctly identified the problem but not
> the solution. The surplus 47 metric tons of plutonium is
> sufficient to make more than 5,000 nuclear weapons. Japan is now
> the only country without such weapons that reprocesses its spent
> nuclear fuel, creating still more plutonium. Japan even plans to
> start commercial operation in 2021 of a domestic reprocessing
> plant that would produce up to an additional eight metric tons of
> plutonium annually.

> All this creates the impression internationally that Japan is
> preserving the option to quickly produce a large nuclear weapons
> arsenal. Not surprisingly, South Korea, North Korea, and China
> have cited Japan’s plutonium stockpile as grounds to initiate or
> expand their own reprocessing of nuclear fuel, thereby raising the
> specter of a disastrous nuclear arms race in East
> Asia."

-- Japan’s Misguided Plutonium Policy
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-10/...ium-policy
(Arms Control Association, 1-Oct-2018)

** 21-Jul-2021 Why Butler's posts don't always get answered

There are lots of reasons why your posts aren't always answered.

One reason that ISN'T true is that your arguments are so brilliant
that we're stunned by your brilliance and can't respond. That's
what you believe, and that's laughable.

In just the last couple of days, three people have said the same thing
in different ways. Cool Breeze said, "Can anyone make anything that
Bish says intelligible? I've noticed the common thread of lefties,
beyond lying, is that they accuse others of what they themselves do."

spottybrowncow said, "Many on this forum are trained in disciplines
requiring scientific rigor, and we know how to reason. You don't. When
people don't reply to you, it isn't because "you've got them," i.e.,
they can't refute your points. It's just that they've given up on
you. But I'll hand it to you, you're like the energizer bunny. If only
you'd been born several decades earlier you could have been Che
Guevara's right hand man. Lots of passion, little reason."

A lot of what you've written is simply incomprehensible. For example,
I can't make heads or tails of your "Madness" post.

What you need to understand is that when you don't get a response,
then it's YOUR fault because you didn't make yourself understood.
Nobody in this forum thinks you're brilliant, or that you're anything
but a left wing nutjob. But still people don't join a forum to remain
silent. They join a forum to express an opinion, even of people like
you. So if they don't write a response, it's because what you've
written is not worth responding to, or they don't understand what
you've written. Or maybe you've written the same thing previously.

I suggest that you try to write like a journalist. The first sentence
of your post should contain your most important argument. The second
sentence should contain your second-most important argument. And so
forth. So a reader only has to read three or four sentences to decide
whether he wants to respond to you.

You claim that people don't respond to what you write, but
you don't either. For example, you've never written a word in
response to the following that I wrote several days ago:

Quote:> "There was no "insurrection" on January 6. We now
> know that the whole thing was staged by Nancy Pelosi. There were
> no weapons found on January 6, except by those of the Capitol
> police. Nobody was killed on January 6 except Ashli Babbitt, a
> pretty young girl just walking through the Capitol building. Her
> crime? She was a Trump supporter. That's why she got shot in the
> head and killed by Lt. Michael L. Byrd, a black officer of the
> Capitol police, on the staff of Nancy Pelosi. Needless to say,
> Pelosi isn't being censored, despite her thoroughly criminal
> activity.

> So the "insurrection" was staged by Nancy Pelosi, and Ashli
> Babbitt was killed by a person on Nancy Pelosi's staff. Byrd is
> not being punished, but dozens of Trump supporters have been
> jailed and put into the solitary confinement for months. But
> that's perfectly ok with you, because you're an evil asshole.
> There's no excuse for people like you and the
> Democrats."

I re-posted these two paragraphs above for two reasons. One was to
point out that you don't answer things. And second, to show how evil
the Democrats have become, jailing or killing innocent people just
because they're Trump supporters. This is what China does. This is
what Hitler did.

So another reason that people don't respond to you is that you are
completely unaware of how evil you've become. In your last post, you
said that it's ok to censor all conservatives because of criminal acts
by Trump, but since there are no criminal acts by Trump, you said that
it's ok to censor all conservatives because Trump is being
investigated for tax fraud.

How is any sane person supposed to respond to this? How is any sane
person supposed to respond to Hitler when he's ranting about how the
Jews all deserved to be killed because one of them insulted Hitler
years ago? You have fallen to the depths of evil, you don't seem to
realize it at all, and that's one of the reasons that you don't get
responses.

** 22-Jul-2021 World View: Truth About China

thinker Wrote:> If you go to a twitter account called "things China doesn't want
> you to know"

https://twitter.com/TruthAbtChina

(07-22-2021, 08:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]** 17-Jul-2021 World View: Lying "Progressives"

Bob Butler Wrote:>   The problem is not with the clarity of what I say, but with your
>   inability to understand it or describe your position clearly.  It
>   is not that progressives lie, but that conservatives do not want
>   to acknowledge the principles progressives speak.  All men are
>   created equal.  All men are imbued with certain rights. All men
>   should receive equal treatment under law. Etc...  These are not
>   lies, but principles that conservatives routinely prefer to
>   ignore.

No, you're the one who is lying, because of your inability to understand
what America is all about:

• Freedom of speech
  
• Freedom of religion
  
• Freedom of press
  
• Freedom of assembly
  
• Freedom of self-defense
  
• Freedom to expect a fair trial
  
• Free and fair elections
  

All of these have practical limitations. We obviously lack the freedom to say "This is a stick-up" in a bank. Speech of any kind has consequences, and nobody has the right to a compliant audience. "Sieg heil!" or "Heil Hitler!" would obviously be unwelcome in many places. like perhaps a Greek-American community festival. (The Nazis took everything that they could from Greece to the extent that they created a famine and utterly destroyed the Greek Jewish community. Greece was a safe haven for Jews with no mainstream antisemitism until the Nazis conquered it). Speech also applies to communications including writing, books, and the Internet.  Criminal speech is evidence for prosecution. 

Freedom of religion does not extend to a human sacrifice or to a ritual involving sexual abuse of a child. Preachers have been successfully sued for slander. As with political speech, religious speech has consequences and nobody has a right to a compliant audience as the late Fred "godh@tesf@gs.com") Phelps wished that he could have.   

Freedom of the press does not extend to advocacy or promotion of any outright crime. Promotion of insurrection or the dissemination of either classified data or child pornographyis rightly unlawful.

Freedom of assembly does not apply to criminal cliques whose main purpose is to commit crimes such as drug trafficking. The Anglo-American legal tradition has statutes against criminal conspiracy.

Freedom of self defense does not apply to owning your own pipe bombs, silencers, or Katyusha rockets. Paranoid delusions are evidence of someone under the thrall of madness, which few of us consider freedom. 

A fair trial does not mean that one gets the results that one expects. It means that certain rules of process apply -- which explains why a lynch mob is not a fair trial. 

Finally, a free election does not mean that you get what you want. If it is a Presidential election, then a Democrat like me, who started voting in Presidential elections in 1976 and has not missed one since then, has been disappointed with the results half the time. A mirror-image Republican would be disappointed just as much. If there is any moral to that story, then the libertarians are right: never expect the government to do for you what you can do for yourself under great hardship and sacrifice. Nobody owes you a living, so if you want to live appreciably better than livestock you had better be supremely talented or start some profit-generating enterprise with the knowledge that the profits will be your source of a living. (Figure that business start-ups boom when economic realities are harsh, as with Generation X that could spend 60 hours a week paying for food, fuel, rent, and commuting costs or start a small business in which one spends 70 hours a week and has a chance to make a median-level income. The Silent had it easy, and they started few businesses other than government contractors and professional practices).

As a corollary, all economic elites from shamans to feudal lords and tycoons and bureaucratic masters in Commie state enterprises or bloated corporate behemoths have consistently held the same ethos: "The rest of Humanity owes us everything, and if those fellahin or proles give us all that we demand we will let them live.  If they balk we will kill them -- maybe quickly by hanging or through slow starvation or exposure to the elements). I'd suggest the website of the late E.J. Rummel on democide (which includes outright genocide and such horrors as the Holodomor and the Atlantic slave trade) to show how it is done. Powerful people use murder, including famine, to exploit people to the fullest when they can get away with it.             

Quote:You lying Democrats would discard any of these freedoms to impose your
Stalinist Fascist view of government -- you can't speak if you support
Trump, you can't own a gun, you have to perform abortions even if you
think they're murder, you can be jailed without charges and put into
solitary confinement for months if you were peacefully protesting on
January 6, you have hundreds of girls packed into a lice-infested tent
in Texas, you teach racial hatred in schools, you have thousands of
young blacks killing each other on the streets of Chicago and other
Democrat cities, and you want to rig all the elections.

Whoa! Yesterday I went past a pro-Trump clique and shouted "306-232! You still lost!" on the way to Wal*Mart to pick up some cat food and cat litter for my out-of-work brother... and would have gone past them again and shouted "Abort fascism now!" had I gone past them a second time, except that road construction made that tricky. That is an expression of free speech, wouldn't you say?

I know of no American physician who is compelled to perform an elective abortion, although I can easily imagine a physician being compelled to perform one in a life-and-death situation or having no qualms about aborting a futile pregnancy (such as an anencephalic fetus). If you were peacefully protesting on January 6 -- and there would have been far more protests had the Putsch succeeded! -- you were safe from arrest. Aside from ideology the difference between Trump's putschists and the Bolsheviki who stormed the Winter Palace in November (old style October) 1917 is that the Bolsheviki got away with it because their takeover led to the formation of the monstrous Soviet Union. 

Real democracy means that one knows that one can lose. If only one side can win elections -- well, that is the sort of "democracy" that existed in the Soviet Union, the Third Reich, Castro's Cuba, Idi A-murderin's Uganda, Apartheid-era South Africa, Satan Hussein's Iraq, or China or Iran today. In fact, Bashar Assad's party got 95% of the vote in Syria. In some respect dictators like Pinochet and Qaddafi were honest enough to not hold elections. Joe Biden won the Presidential election with the tightest controls against electoral fraud and error ever in place, thanks to the efforts of pols in both Parties to ensure, for instance, that electoral devices were under suitable controls of custody and that dead people and movers-out were expunged from voter rolls. All that was dirty was COVID-19, which made mail and absentee voting necessary for the safety of voters and election workers.     

    

Quote:Democrats used to be decent.  But today, they're trying to destroy the
US Constitution.  Everything they do is sickening, and nothing they do
is shocking or surprising any more.  They are as vicious and evil as
the Nazis, the Soviets, the Chinese Communists, and any other horrific
regime you can think of.

• The ideal Democrat society

First of all that should be "subjects" as opposed to leaders. If it is "Socialists" it is either Commies or near-Commies as in Venezuela. 

This could be colonial rule, fascism, Apartheid, Ba'athism, Iranian-style theocracy, the Taliban, ISIS, barracks-socialism as in Myanmar, feudalism, or military dictatorship as under Papadoupoulos or Pinochet.  That happens when Government becomes unresponsive and irresponsible -- when democracy dies, as was a threat by those who sought to  negate the electoral loss of Donald Trump. (I'm guessing that the certification of the electoral vote could have been done in a sports arena such as the one in which the Washington Wizards play basketball or the Washington Capitols play hockey -- or maybe a cafeteria in the Pentagon that could be secured for such a purpose). 

Many dictatorships happen because the ruler chooses to extend a term after losing an election that would deny him the victory to which he thinks he is entitled. That's how Mugabe did things in Zimbabwe (best known for worthless currency with impressive numbers). Trump was widely expected to lose in accordance with polling, and he ended up coming closer to winning than Establishment media expected.

The Centers for Disease Control give us a partial report... because the story is not yet fully complete.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR015-508.pdf

Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020 Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., Betzaida Tejada-Vera, M.S., Farida Ahmad, M.P.H., and Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention • National Center for Health Statistics • National Vital Statistics System NCHS reports can be downloaded from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/index.htm. Introduction The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collects and disseminates the nation’s official vital statistics through the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). NCHS uses provisional vital statistics data for conducting public health surveillance and final data for producing annual national natality and mortality statistics. NCHS publishes annual and decennial national life tables based on final vital statistics. To assess the effects on life expectancy of excess mortality observed during 2020, NCHS published provisional life expectancy estimates for the months January through June, 2020 in February 2021 (1). This report presents updated estimates of life expectancy based on provisional mortality data for the full year, January through December, 2020. Provisional data are early estimates based on death certificates received, processed, and coded, but not finalized, by NCHS. These estimates are considered provisional because death certificate information may later be revised, and additional death certificates may be received until approximately 6 months after the end of the year. This report presents life expectancy estimates calculated using abridged period life tables based on provisional death counts for 2020, by sex, for the total, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and non-Hispanic black populations. Estimates for the American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian, and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NHOPI) populations were not produced due to the impact of race and ethnicity misclassification on death certificates for these populations on the precision of life expectancy estimates (2). There are two types of life tables: the cohort (or generation) and the period (or current) life table. The cohort life table presents the mortality experience of a particular birth cohort from the moment of birth through consecutive ages in successive calendar years. The period life table does not represent the mortality experience of an actual birth cohort but rather presents what would happen to a hypothetical cohort if it experienced throughout its entire life the mortality conditions of a particular period. Period life expectancy estimates based on final data for 2019 by sex, Hispanic origin, and race are also provided in this report for purposes of comparison (see Technical Notes and reference 3 for description of methodology). Unlike the previous estimates based on 6 months of data, this full-year report presents contributions of causes of death to the changes in life expectancy using a life table partitioning technique (see Technical Notes). Keywords: life expectancy • Hispanic origin • race • cause of death • National Vital Statistics System Data and Methods Provisional life expectancy estimates were calculated using abridged period life tables based on provisional death counts for 2020 from death records received and processed by NCHS as of May 13, 2021; provisional numbers of births for the same period based on birth records received and processed by NCHS as of April 7, 2021; and, July 1, 2020, monthly postcensal population estimates based on the 2010 decennial census. Provisional mortality rates are typically computed using death data after a 3-month lag following date of death, as completeness and timeliness of provisional death data can vary by many factors, including cause of death, month of the year, and age of the decedent (4,5). Mortality data used in this report include over 99% of the deaths that occurred in 2020, but certain jurisdictions and age groups may be underrepresented for later months (5). Deaths requiring investigation, including infant deaths, deaths from external injuries, and drug overdose deaths may be underestimated (6,7). See Technical Notes for more information about the calculation of the abridged period life tables, 2019 life expectancy estimates by race and Hispanic origin, and life table partitioning by cause of death. Results Life expectancy in the United States The Table summarizes life expectancy by age, Hispanic origin, race, and sex. Life expectancy at birth represents the average number of years a group of infants would live if they were to experience throughout life the agespecific death rates prevailing during a specified period. In 2020, life expectancy at birth for the total U.S. population


(Read the source material if you want to see something more legible and connect to links).

Some conclusions that I draw (again, read the source material, as it ill serves cutting and pasting):

1. It may surprise many of us that Hispanic populations have overtaken non-Hispanic whites, let alone blacks, in life expectancy. That may reflect culture. Hispanic culture seems much more optimistic and life-affirming than the non-Hispanic mainstream.

(snarky material redacted due to a lack of relevance to this discussion)

So what causes the higher life expectancy among Hispanic-Americans despite being poorer as a whole? First, not smoking as much. The second-lowest state in the percentage of smokers is California, which has a surprisingly-large Mormon population (that is part of it; Utah is 51st among the States and the federal district in consumption of tobacco products, and California is a distant 50th), and Hispanics account for much of the low smoking rate in California. Not smoking offsets the effects of air pollution in infamously-smoggy L.A. Texas, which has some very poor populations as in states to its east from Oklahoma in the west to North Carolina and Georgia in the east, is below average in tobacco use and the states to its east are all above average. (Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia fit this pattern, too of poverty and heavy smoking). Texas Hispanics, largely Mexican-Americans, are really-light smokers. That explains much. Another factor is that Hispanics have more tightly-knit communities. One is not alone, which explains how Mexican-Americans were much less-likely than others to die during a heat wave in Chicago in 2015. Someone was looking out for elderly Hispanics to make sure that they had fans and could keep their windows open. Blacks and poor whites often got neglected... and died for that neglect.

2. The strengths of Hispanic communities depend upon them being close to each other. With COVID-19 that may have been too close in housing, let alone many workplaces (as in food-processing places in which many of them work) or in the hospitality business and retailing in which they see everyone, infected or not. COVID-19 ravaged Hispanics as it did not ravage non-Hispanic whites or even blacks. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote heavily Democratic irrespective of economic status, and if they endured a disproportionate number of deaths from COVID-19, then that made have made the 2020 vote closer in Arizona and Nevada than many of us expected.

3. Declines in life expectancy by ethnicity and gender were as follows:

Hispanic male -3.7
non-Hispanic black male -3.3
Non-Hispanic black female -2.4
Hispanic female -2.0
non-Hispanic white male -1.3
non-Hispanic white female -1.1

Political consequences are possible and even likely. This may have made elections in Arizona (Hispanics), Georgia (blacks), Michigan (blacks), Nevada (Hispanics), Pennsylvania (blacks), and Wisconsin (blacks) closer than one might have expected in January 2020. COVID-19 might have made a difference in Florida and North Carolina, which many liberals thought might go D. Texas, which has large numbers of blacks and Hispanics, might have been much closer without COVID-19. Most deaths were of people of voting age, so political effects would be felt in 2020. Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire -- all with relatively-small minority populations -- endured lower death rates and had results closer to what the polls suggested for the 2020 election.

In a country so polarized in political orientation on ethnicity as is the USA, divergent rates in death rates among people of voting age among different groups could shape the election. Trump came close to being re-elected, but if this is why he came close, this is more cause for shame than for praise for any cleverness. If there is any design, then such might be of interest at the Hague Tribunal for crimes against humanity.

I'm not accusing anyone of political manipulation. COVID-19 certainly disenfranchised black and Hispanic voters discriminatorily, whether the effect was design or accident. Draw whatever conclusions you wish.

4. People may have been dying of COVID-19 instead of something else, like cancer, strokes, HIV, cirrhosis, diabetes, or dementia. For people in weakened conditions, COVID-19 might have been the official killer on a death certificate -- but COVID-19 dwarfs those causes combined.

5, The most obvious limitation on this study is time. We do not know what effects will arise in the future, but they cannot be good. Maybe the distribution of vulnerable people will change from 2020 to 2021. COVID-19 survivors often endure complications that themselves shorten life. Compromised organs and brains will cause trouble for decades among relatively-young survivors. Diabetes is a multi-organ plight. If COVID-19 does not kill outright it can still shorten life.

6. Since then the people most resistant to getting the safe and effective vaccinations against COVID-19 are people most fitting Donald Trump's beloved "low-information voters". These are now the people dying, and these are from here on the people who will have their lives shortened by complications. Oxygen starvation causes big problems down the line, whether from partial drowning, "huffing" (sniffing glue or other solvents for a "high", strokes, and heart attacks.

I understand (I no longer have cable TV) that FoX News has changed its tune about inoculation. Too little and too late, but if it takes the likes of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity to get the point across to FoX devotees as someone like Rachel Maddow can't... well, so be it.

Being "low-information" on anything is not a good strategy for economic improvement or even survival.

COVID-19 may have helped Donald Trump come close to getting re-elected in 2020... but he still fell short. Assuming that the Democratic and Republican coalitions remain much the same for a considerable time, COVID-19 may end up hurting the Republican Party more over time.

.

*** 24-Jul-21 World View -- China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan
  
• China's military threatens the 'Japan Exception Theory'
  
• Chinese warplanes practice blokading Taiwan
  
• Japan says 'F--k you China, bring it on'
  
• Nuclear weapons in Japan
  
• International love affairs and hatreds
  

****
**** China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan
****


Japan's Ministry of Defense removes Taiwan from China in map (Taiwan News)

The mutual hatred that the people of China and Japan feel for each
other has always been bubbling below the surface, but in the last
month or so, it has become far more public and open at the military
and government levels.

The flash point is Taiwan. China has repeatedly declared the
intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to China. Japan has said that
China's annexation of Taiwan would be a security risk to Japan, and so
Japan will join with Taiwan in a war with China. I discussed all of
this in my article last month. ( "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China"
)

What's changed in the last month is that each side, China and
Japan, has published something that indicates a harsh "fuck you"
attitude toward the other side. In years past, Japan and China
pretended to be nice to each other, but those days apparently are
ending.

****
**** China's military threatens the 'Japan Exception Theory'
****

On July 12, the Chinese Communist military uploaded a video to a
Chinese Military channel, "Military strategies." The video was taken
down after two days, after it had been re-posted, with English
subtitles, by Chinese-born human rights activist and author Jennifer
Zeng.

Here are some of the main points of the Chinese military video
as described by Jennifer Zeng:

• If Japan tries to defend Taiwan by deploying even one soldier,
  one plane, or one ship, then China will attack Japan with full
  force.
  
  
• China will adopt a "Japan Exception" policy with regard to use of
  nuclear weapons. China once promised that it wouldn’t use nuclear
  weapons first, or use it against non-nuclear countries. It's not
  surprising that China is abandoning this promise, since China lies
  about everything. So now Japan can be an exception.
  
  
• China will attack Japan with nuclear weapons not just once, but
  repeatedly, and "continuously," until Japan declares unconditional
  surrender "for the second time."
  
  
• The psychological argument is that because Japan is the only
  country in the world to have suffered a nuclear attack, unleashing
  nuclear weapons upon Japan "will yield twice the result with half the
  effort."
  
  
• After victory, China will break up Japan's four main islands into
  independent countries under the "supervision" of China and Russia,
  which will both establish military garrisons there. Okinawa will be
  broken off from Japan and either be managed by China or made into an
  independent country.

There's so much of the above that's entirely delusional that it's hard
to know what to start. The most obvious is that the continuous
nuclear bombing will not cause Japan to declare unconditional
surrender "for the second time." The Japanese will be infuriated and
will fight to the last bullet.

The video implies the following Chinese delusional military strategy:
The Chinese strategy would be a quick victory in Taiwan combined with
a nuclear victory over Japan, to be executed before the United States
could respond. When the dust cleared, there would be a new reality,
with Taiwan part of China, and Japan colonized/controlled by China.

This is entirely delusional, but being delusional has never stopped
the Chinese Communists till now.

There is a never-ending debate whether nuclear weapons will be used in
the next war. But Jennifer Zeng's article explains why China MUST use
nuclear weapons at the beginning of the war. In conventional warfare,
Taiwan+Japan could defeat the Chinese. The Chinese know this, and the
Japanese know this. That's why the Chinese are developing the "Japan
Exception Theory," which means that Japan is the exception to the
"promise" that China will not be the first to use nuclear weapons.
Japan does not currently have nuclear weapons, so there will
presumably be no danger of nuclear retaliation from Japan.

****
**** Chinese warplanes practice blokading Taiwan
****

The Japan Exception Theory is just words, but China has also done a
lot militarily in the last few weeks to increase its preparation for
war with Taiwan.

The Chinese Communists have sent warplanes into Taiwan's airspace
dozens of times in 2020, and hundreds of times so far in 2021. The
media describes this as "sending a message," but how long will the
increasingly nationalist Chinese public be satisfied with just
"sending a message"?

In March, the Chinese military showed an aggressive new tactic:
planning for a blockade. Ten Chinese warplanes invaded Taiwanese
airspace to the island's south and west, while another two Chinese
planes cut through its southern airspace to skirt Taiwan's eastern
airspace. A Taiwanese official said that the move was designed to
practice cutting Taiwan off from Japanese and American intervention if
China carries through on its threats to invade Taiwan.

It's not known what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like,
and it's not clear that China has the capability to successfully
invade Taiwan.

However a full blockade of Taiwan could be a much simpler strategy.
The idea is that if Taiwan were cut off from the world, it could
quickly run out of both military and non-military necessities, but
once it did it would be forced to surrender. Once again, that's
entirely delusional, but a blockade could be part of a larger
strategy to weaken and isolate Taiwan first, in preparation for
the actual invasion.

Once again, you have to step back here and look at the larger picture.
What the hell is going on here? China has been "sending messages" for
years, decades even. Now we have the Chinese military talking about a
Japanese exception to allow a nuclear attack, and Chinese warplanes
practicing for a blockade to prevent Japan or the US from defending
Taiwan. We also know that the Chinese Communists have explicitly
warned that they would invade Taiwan, and those warnings have become
increasingly shrill.

As I've written many times, a war could start at any time, and it
wouldn't even require an affirmative decision to do so. World War I
was started by a twelve year old boy who decided to assassinate
a Serbian archduke. World War II was started by a Japanese garrison
near Beijing when a Japanese soldier needed to pee and got lost in
the woods. The Japanese accused the Chinese of abducting the soldier,
and they were at full-scale war within a month, with the Rape of
Nanking occurring two months later.

****
**** Japan says 'F--k you China, bring it on'
****

Look closely at the pair of maps at the beginning of this article.
They are the "Defense of Japan" white papers published, respectively,
in 2020 and 2021. Both of these are maps of China, with the
red arrow pointing to the island of Taiwan.

In 2020, Taiwan was shown in red, indicating that Taiwan is part
of China. In 2021, Taiwan is shown in grey, meaning that Taiwan
is NOT part of China.

I'm referring to this as a "Fuck you China, bring it on" message.
There are no words that could be more insulting and more infuriating
to the Chinese Communists than what is essentially a declaration by
Japan's Ministry of Defense (MOD) that Taiwan is an independent
country.

In the context of the current increasing belligerent actions by
the Chinese, and their declaration of the "Japan Exception Theory,"
Japan is saying that they're not intimidated.

The "Defense of Japan" white paper, this year for the first time,
makes clear that Japan is concerned about a potential Chinese
attack on Taiwan:

<QUOTE>"Stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is
important for Japan’s security and the stability of the
international community. Therefore, it is necessary that we pay
close attention to the situation with a sense of crisis more than
ever before."<END QUOTE>

What is significant about this statement is that Taiwan was never
even mentioned in previous white papers.

****
**** Nuclear weapons in Japan
****

Japan adopted a pacifist constitution after World War II, and later
signed the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which
bans it from developing nuclear weapons, more than 40 years ago.

However, Japan has been able to build nuclear weapons since it
launched a plutonium breeader reactor and uranium enrichment plant in
the 1980s. Since then, Japan has pursued a nuclear fuel recycling
program that separates plutonium from the waste from its nuclear
power plants.

Today, Japan has 45.5 tons of separated plutonium — 8.9 tons at home,
and 36.6 tons in Britain and France. The amount is enough to make
about 6,000 atomic bombs. And Japan continues to produce more
plutonium.

Analysts estimate that it would require about six months for
Japan to develop an atomic weapon.

In fact, I would speculate further. I could well believe that the Japanese
have manufactured the nuclear weapons, perhaps with technical help
from the Americans or the Indians, but haven't yet inserted the
plutonium. That way, they can claim that they still have no nuclear
weapons, but they might be able to complete the manufacture within a
few days, when the time comes.

I don't have any evidence of that. I'm just saying that it wouldn't
surprise me.

****
**** International love affairs and hatreds
****

Americans fought and won a war with the Nazis, and now, 75 years
later, Americans like the Germans, are friends with the Germans, and
Germany is an ally.

Americans fought and won a war with the Imperial Japanese, and now, 75
years later, Americans like the Japanese, are friends with the
Japanese, and Japan is a very important ally.

Americans fought and won a war in support of the Chinese, and saved
the Chinese from the Japanese. Since then, Americans always loved the
Chinese, although attitudes changed with the Tiananmen Square
massacre, the torture and enslavement of two million Muslim Uighurs,
the smashing of democracy in Hong Kong, and the repeated threats and
obvious plans to wage war to annex Taiwan.

Americans like the Chinese people, and have no desire for a war
with them, but Americans are increasingly scared to death by
hateful belligerence of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese
people like the American people, and have no desire for a war with
them, but the Chinese Communists have decided that there must
be a war because the United States military will defend Taiwan
and Japan from a Chinese invasion.

The Chinese and the Japanese fought a war with each other, and now,
75 years later, each side has a deep, vitriolic hatred of the other.
The Japanese performed unspeakable atrocities on the Chinese during
World War II. The Chinese are craving revenge like nothing else.
Given the chance, they will inflict the same kinds of enormous
atrocities on the Japanese, and they'll be satisfied with nothing
less than the destruction of the Japanese culture.

That's why the last actions by Japan's Ministry of Defense are
interesting, which is why I describe them as "F--k you China,
bring it on." There are no signs that the Japanese fear a war
with the Chinese. It's possible that they fear war with China
less than we do. The Japanese have a very powerful conventional
armed forces, and they may have nuclear weapons, and they may believe
that they can defeat the Chinese, in alliance with Taiwan. So I
get the feeling that the Japanese would like another go at China,
and are looking forward to it.

It's ironic that the crucible of the war between China and Japan
will likely be an invasion of little old Taiwan. Taiwan was a colony
of Japan in the early 1900s, and apparently consider that relationship
to have been good enough for Taiwan to be on the side of Japan
in fighting their common enemy, China.

But what about Korea? Which side will they be on?

Throughout Korea's history, they were either a colony of Japan or a
vassal state of China. I'm not sure which is worse. So which side
would Korea choose to fight against -- Japan or Korea? I get the
feeling that they would rather be like Switzerland, and try to stay
neutral as long as possible.

But of course it's much more complicated than that, because Korea
isn't Korea any more. Korea is now South Korea, apparently aligned
with the United States, and North Korea, apparently aligned with
China. Each Korea wants the country to be reunited, but under its own
government. So it seems likely that there will be a war between North
and South Korea, while Japan is fighting China.

So what will happen to all those nuclear weapons that the North
Koreans have been manufacturing? With they be launched toward
America, toward Japan, toward China or toward South Korea? That's a
very interesting question, and I think that the answer is far from
obvious.

So I really don't know what the Koreans will do. Perhaps some of the
Koreans who read my articles could write to me and enlighten me, or
post their opinions anonymously in the Generational Dynamics forum.

There are people in the Generational Dynamics forum who criticize
me for making imperfect predictions. "What good are your forecasts,
Xenakis, if you can't tell the date when the war will break out?"

That's funny. All I can tell you today, with 100% certainty, is
that China and Japan are headed for a full-scale war over Taiwan. I
can't give you an exact date, but I can tell you that China is
rapidly making preparations, Japan is rapidly making preparations,
and Taiwan is rapidly making preparations. But I can keep track
of events and hope for clarity.


China-Japan Book

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China threatens to nuke Japan non-stop if it tries to defend Taiwan, says it is making an ‘exception’ in the no first use policy for Japan (OpIndia, 14-Jul-2021)
  
• China Officials Share Viral Video Calling for Atomic Bombing of Japan (Newsweek, 14-Jul-2021)
  
• Japan removes Taiwan from China map in defense white paper (Taiwan News, 14-Jul-2021)
  
• CCP channel reposts video threatening to nuke Japan if it defends Taiwan (Taiwan News, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• A local government committee in China shared a video on social media calling for the nuclear bombing of Japan (Insider.com, 15-Jul-2021)
  
• When the chips are down over Taiwan, what’s Australia’s stake in the game? (East Asia Forum, 10-Feb-2021)
  
• In A Warning To China, Japan’s New Strategy Paper Mentions Taiwan For The First Time (Forbes, 15-Jul-2021)
  
• The CCP’s 3 New Warships & Their Messages to the World, Will China Go Back to Mao’s Time? (Jennifer Zeng, 7-May-2021)
  
• “Nuke and Eliminate Japan”: The CCP’s Threat and Its Long Term Goal & Global Strategy (Jennifer Zeng, 15-Jul-2021)
  
• Japan’s Misguided Plutonium Policy (Arms Control Association, 1-Oct-2018)
  
• Risk of Taiwan Strait conflict ‘at all-time high’, Beijing-backed think tank says (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 22-Jul-2021)
  
• Blockade / An invasion isn't the only threat from China that Taiwan and the US have to worry about (Business Insider, 16-Jun-2021)
  
• Chinese Warplanes Practice Cutting Taiwan Off from US Help (Military.com, 10-May-2021)
  
• More Than Two Dozen Chinese Warplanes Enter Taiwan’s Airspace (VOA, 16-Jun-2021)
  
• China / Beijing Expanding Size and Role of Its ‘Private’ Military Companies in Central Asia (Jamestown, Paul Goble, 20-Jul-2021)
  
• Expanding and Escalating the China-Bhutan Territorial Dispute (Jamestown, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Early Warning Brief: Xi Jinping Issues Tough Warnings to Enemies Within the Party (Jamestown, 23-Jul-2021)
  
• China vs Taiwan / The PLA’s Critical Assessment of the Agile Combat Employment Concept (Jamestown, 16-Jul-2021)
  
• Japan sticks to nuke fuel cycle despite plutonium stockpile (AP, 21-Oct-2020)
  
• Japan Has Nuclear 'Bomb in the Basement,' and China Isn't Happy (NBC News, 11-Mar-2014)

Related Articles:

• Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China (28-Jun-2021)
  
  
• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan (23-Sep-2020)
  
  
• George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China (27-Jan-2019)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Taiwan, China,
Japan Exception Theory, Korea, North Korea, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
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** 25-Jul-2021 World View: Identity groups

Guest Wrote:> My relatives in Taiwan don't seem worried about an attack...

> I have moved gold and silver bullion to Singapore. It won't help
> me if i'm dead, but if that hapens, I won't have any more
> worries. Besides, it's not enough to "start over". Just a little
> something to help me survive for awhile until I can figure out
> what to do next. Other than that, I don't know what to do.

> I once spoke with a refugee who said that he saw a family of
> refugees trapped by hillside with a river below it. The soldiers
> were approaching and they would do unspeakable things to the
> husband's wife and two daughters. The whole family was crying and
> screaming. The father speoke to them. The man couldn't hear what
> was said, he was faraway, but he watched as they all held hands
> and jumped off the hill into the river. They didn't try to
> swim. Sometimes there is no solution.

> I would like to hear from Navigator too.

> Thank you, John.

> --Guest in Asia.

Your observation that your relatives in Taiwan don't seem worried
about an attack is very interesting.

This corresponds to the discussion in my article about the fact that
the Japanese don't seem to fear an attack, and in fact have a "bring
it on" attitude. So we can conclude that, for the time being, the
attitudes of the Taiwanese people are in sync with that attitudes of
the Japanese people. This makes sense, since China is planning to
attack both of them.

During a generational Crisis era, populations generally form identity
groups with other populations of the same religion, race, ethnicity,
skin color, etc. So we would expect the Chinese people of Taiwan to
form an identity group with the Chinese people of China.

It's the Chinese Communist government that has screwed this up. What
the people of Taiwan have in common with the people of Japan is that
their governments are both part of the international liberal
democratic Western community of nations. In fact, "the West" can be
thought of as an identity group, joined together by common democracies
and "Western values."

So, for example, Israel is part of this identity group, but Saudi
Arabia is not. Ukraine is part of this identity group, but Belarus is
not.

However, the fact that neither the people of Taiwan nor the people of
Japan fear an attack by China takes this concept a step further, and
suggests that the two countries may be actively preparing to defend
themselves from China.

** 26-Jul-2021 World View: China clamps down on education stocks

China and Hong Kong stock markets fell sharply on Monday. In Hong
Kong, the selloff was led by education stocks (Scholar Education Group
and New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc). These companies
provide tutoring and test preparation services for K-12 students in
mainland China.

That was triggered by the announcement on Friday by the Chinese
Communists that education companies (Tal Education Group, New Oriental
and GSX Techedu) are "hijacked by capital" and would no longer be
permitted to make a profit. They are required to re-register as "not
for profit," and cannot raise funds from stock markets, and can't have
foreign investors.

A local court in Xian has issued an injunction preventing the CCP from
implementing the new regulations. Hahahahahaha. There is no such
court in China, and anyone who tried would be shot dead.

So with a simple announcement, the Chinese Communists have shut down
overnight an entire $120 billion industry, with millions of employees,
because it was a "capitalist" business. Nothing like that has
happened in America since the Democrat regime shut down overnight
Parler.com, with millions of subscribers, because many subscribers
were Trump supporters.

China announced on Friday that TAL cannot profit from subjects in
standard tests such as language, math, English, chemistry, physics,
etc. But it is ok to arrange profit businesses on sports, humanist and
art, and science, etc. OK. So TAL won't be destroyed, but will be
crippled. Undoubtedly the company will try to restructure its courses
so that they all fit under the new regulations.

The reason given is so that Chinese students won't have to work so
hard by attending so many tutoring sessions. The stated logic is that
these tutoring sessions cost money that the parents have to pay, so
that parents no longer want to have more than one child, which means
that China's new three-child policy is failing, and China is facing
demographic disaster.

The paranoid reason is that TAL is listed on the NY Stock Exchange and
is being subjected to stronger auditing requirements, and the Chinese
Communists are afraid that the Americans will get their hands only all
that data about Chinese students in TAL servers.

---- Sources:

-- China, Hong Kong shares tumble on regulatory clampdowns
https://www.reuters.com/business/china-s...021-07-26/
(Reuters, 26-Jul-2021)

-- Another group of U.S.-listed China stocks plunge as Beijing
regulators crack down
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/us-liste...-down.html
(CNBC, 23-Jul-2021)

-- China's new private tutoring rules put billions of dollars at stake
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chin...021-07-25/
(Reuters, 26-Jul-2021)

-- TAL Education: The Worst Is Here, But Chinese Kids Still Need
Places To Learn
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441286...s-to-learn
(Seeking Alpha, 25-Jul-2021)

*** 31-Jul-21 World View -- Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable
  
• The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian (2003)
  
• The uniqueness of Chinese DNA
  
• Justifying the insanity of the Chinese Communists
  
• The need for more living space
  
• Learning lessons from Hitler and Nazi Germany
  
• Using biological weapons to 'clean up' America
  
• Spreading Covid-19 as a 'beta test' of biological weapons
  

****
**** Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable
****


Li-Meng Yan, the virologist who fled from China to the United States, after she told how the virus came out of China

I've always been skeptical of the most extreme explanations of the
spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19). For a long time, I was
willing to accept the explanation that it jumped to humans from an
animal in a so-called "wet market" or, if it came from the Wuhan
Virology Lab, that it escaped from the lab accidentally, for example
by accidentally infecting one of the lab workers. The last
possibility has been supported by numerous reports of sloppy security
practices at the lab.

In particular, I've never believed that the Chinese Communists
purposely unleashed the virus on the world. Whatever happened, I've
always felt, must have been mostly caused by accidents, stupidity and
incompetence. I've frequently criticized the Chinese Communists for
policies that were extremely stupid, but surely the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP), as stupid as they are, would not be so stupid as to
purposely spread a novel virus across the world.

My opinion has changed 180 degrees. I now believe that the CCP is
easily stupid enough to have purposely spread the virus across the
world. In fact, I now believe that's exactly what happened.

****
**** The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian (2003)
****

What's changed my mind is a document from 2003, The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian (2003).

General Chi Haotian was born in 1929, and was one of the last hardline
military men that led Mao Zedong's army to victory, forming the
People's Republic of China in 1949. If you'dlike to compare him to an
American general, then select a hardline general who was born in the
1920s.

The 2003 document is a large, complex strategy document, describing
how China would defeat America diplomatically and militarily. It was
written 18 years ago, almost the length of an entire generation.
Chi's hardline war survivor generation is now gone, replaced by
younger generations who may not agree with everything that Chi says.

But as I analyzed this document, it was clear to me that this document
is not out of date, except in a few irrelevant details. The plans and
motivations of the Chinese Communists, and the methods for achieving
their objectives, have not changed substantively since 2003.

I had wanted to provide a summary of the main points, but this
document is so large and complex that a summary would be almost as
long as the original document. So I'll just provide a narrative of
points most relevant to this article, and suggest that you read Chi's
entire speech for yourself.

So the following sections contain some of the main points of Chi's
speech. As you read them, you'll think that they're highly
delusional, to the point of insanity, and I agree. But they're also
the policies of the entire CCP, which have frequently been shown to be
delusional to the point of insanity. It's also worth pointing out
that these policies and views are not new. They're deeply embedded in
Chinese culture, dating back millennia to the Analects of Confucius
(551-479 BC) and The Art of War (500 BC) by Sun Tzu.

****
**** The uniqueness of Chinese DNA
****

The core belief of Chi Haotian, the CCP, and the entire Chinese
culture is that the Chinese people are a unique race, superior to all
other races. I've sometimes described this as believing that all
other races have no other purpose than to serve the Chinese, in the
same way that a donkey has no other purpose than to serve a farmer.
I've been using that analogy for years, and I'm not aware of any
example of Chinese behavior that contradicts the donkey analogy. This
is the Chinese culture. This is how the Chinese think of us, and this
is how it has been for millennia.

Chi Haotian carries this to the next level by claiming that Chinese
DNA is so unique that the Chinese people did not originate in Africa
like everyone else. Chi repeats a claim, based on archaelogical
discoveries of "Peking Man" in the 1920s, that the Chinese people
evolved completely independently of the other races on earth. This
claim was debunked by Chinese scholars in the 1980s, but was still
believed by Chi, and is probably still believed by many in the CCP.

Chi is describing the strategy for "the great revitalization of the
Chinese nation," which, of course, "is not limited to the land we have
now but also includes the whole world." Chi claims that the Chinese
nation would not exist without the Communist Party. The Communist
Party must exist for this great revitalization of the Chinese nation.

Chi sees the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre as an existential crisis
for the Communist Party. If a reformist faction (led by Zhao Ziyang)
had succeeded in resolving the riots peacefully, then there would have
been a "peaceful transition," ending the power of the Communist Party.
Fortunately (he believes), Zhao Ziyang was removed at a crucial
movement, and the 1989 riots were crushed.

Chi sees this as a generational issue. He says that Communism ended
in the Soviet Union when the "pioneering senior comrades" (i.e., the
generals who had served in WW II) passed away, Gorbachev came along,
and the power of the Communist Party was taken away by peaceful
evolution. This peaceful transition must not happen to the Chinese
Communist Party!!! "If we, the CCP, are finished, China will be
finished, and the world will be finished."

****
**** Justifying the insanity of the Chinese Communists
****

This is the justification for all the insanity. It's not to improve
China's economy. It's not to defend China from a war. It's not even
to prevent an internal civil war. The justification for all the
insanity is to prevent a peaceful transition in China that ends the
power of the Communist Party. And this is breathtakingly insane, but
we can see the consequences.

So, for example, every religion must be brutally crushed. Here is the
justification:

<QUOTE>"Maybe you have now come to understand why we recently
decided to further promulgate atheism. If we let theology from the
West into China and empty us from the inside, if we let all
Chinese people listen to God and follow God, who will obediently
listen to us and follow us? If the common people don’t believe
Comrade Hu Jintao is a qualified leader, question his authority,
and want to monitor him, if the religious followers in our society
question why we are leaving God in churches, can our Party
continue to rule China?"<END QUOTE>

So that's why any religious worship is an existential threat to
Communism. That's the justification for brutally crushing Buddhists
and Christians, and for beating, raping, torturing, and enslaving two
million Muslim Uighurs. Praying to God is like declaring war on the
Communist Party.

And I want to emphasize the insanity of this. In America or any other
country, religious prayer exists alongside the government without a
conflict. But in China, "listening to God and following God" is an
existential threat to the Communist Party, because the Communist
leaders' authority will be questioned, and they will lose their power.
I don't know what this looks like to you, Dear Reader, but to me it
looks like total madness.

****
**** The need for more living space
****

Chi Haotian complains bitterly that China has the world's largest
population, including Chinese in China and overseas, but too little
per-capita living space for Chinese people.

According to Chi: "China’s great economic expansion will inevitably
come with significant development in our military forces, creating
conditions for our expansion overseas."

In 2003, China was about 20 years into the "One Child Policy," that
caused the government to kill children and forcibly abort women when a
family might have more than one child. Chi does not mention the One
Child Policy, but I can well believe that he hates it, and sees it as
an additional reason for expansion overseas.

Colonization of foreign lands is a crucial part of Chi's strategy for
the revitalization of the Chinese nation, and Chi looks to the
experience of Hitler and the Nazis for lessons on how to proceed.

****
**** Learning lessons from Hitler and Nazi Germany
****

In America and the West, we generally think of Hitler and the Nazis as
a uniquely evil world development that will never happen again.
However, that's not how the Chinese view him. In my book, "War
between China and Japan," I mentioned that Chiang Kai-shek admired
Hitler, but I didn't carry it farther.

But Chi Haotian and the CCP do not consider Hitler and the Nazis to be
a uniquely evil development. They admire Hitler and his attempt to
rule the world, and want to learn lessons from his "humiliating"
defeat so that the Chinese Communists won't repeat them.

Chi says, "Our Chinese people are wiser than the Germans because,
fundamentally, our race is superior to theirs." An important
difference between the German Nazis and the Chinese Communists is that
"we are complete atheists, while Germany was primarily a Catholic and
Protestant country. ... Although Hitler also believed that ordinary
citizens had low intelligence, and that leaders should therefore make
decisions, and although German people worshipped Hitler back then,
Germany did not have the tradition of worshipping sages on a broad
basis."

So that's why Hitler made mistakes, and why there are three lessons
that the CCP must learn from Hitler's failure.

• First lesson: The West has much nicer living space than we
  have because we have so many Chinese people crammed into a small
  space, which is why we need to colonize other lands.
  
  
• Second lesson: Focus on the leadership capacity of the ruling
  party. Although the Nazis spread their power to every aspect of the
  German national government, they did not stress their absolute
  leadership position like we have. They did not take the issue of
  managing the power of the party as first priority, which we have.
  
  
• Third lesson: The big "Issue of America." The renaissance of
  China is in fundamental conflict with the West, and so Chinese
  colonization of other lands will be blocked by America and the
  West.

Chi explains the Issue of America as follows:

<QUOTE>"Would the United States allow us to go out to gain
new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking
us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan,
Vietnam, India, or even Japan, [so] how much more living space can
we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States,
Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass
colonization. Therefore, solving the “issue of America” is the
key to solving all other issues."<END QUOTE>

This explains a lot of things for me, things that I've described as
insanity in the past.

First, it explains the obsession with Taiwan. Yes of course the
Chinese may legitimately wish Taiwan to be part of China, but what's
insane is that the CCP is willing to pursue total war to make Taiwan a
province of China. Britain gave up the entire British Empire without
going to war to keep each colony. Going to war for that reason can
legitimately be called insane.

In August 2006, I transcribed a BBC interview with Sha Zukang, China's
ambassador to the United Nations. What was remarkable was that the
ambassador was screaming angrily at the top of his lungs. He was
asked about Taiwan's independence, and he screamed as follows:

<QUOTE>"The moment that Taiwan declares independence,
supported by whomever, China will have no choice but to [use]
whatever means available to my government. Nobody should have any
illusions on that. ...

It's not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of
the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people."

[With regard to the U.S.'s constant criticism of China's rapid
militarization:] It's better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet.
That's much, much better. China's population is 6 times or 5
times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It's
high time to shut up. It's a nation's sovereign right to do what
is good for them. But don't tell us what's good for China. Thank
you very much."<END QUOTE>

This followed a 2005 warning given by top-level Chinese army officer
General Zhu Chenghu if America interfered with Taiwan: "If the
Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to
respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of
the cities east of Xian [a city in central China]. Of course the
Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be
destroyed by the Chinese."

And that's not all. China has 21 active border disputes with
neighboring countries. Once again, Dear Reader, I call that insanity.
But it's become a Chinese Communist obsession to colonize other lands,
and not give up even one inch of land.

This gets to the heart of Chi Haotian's "Issue of America." Chi said
that America will block any attempt by China to colonize Taiwan,
Vietnam, India or Japan. Therefore, America must be defeated.

According to Chi, the reason that Chinese talk loudly about the
"Taiwan issue" is that they want to hide their real objective, the
"American issue."

****
**** Using biological weapons to 'clean up' America
****

Chi says that once America is conquered, it will be necessary
to use biological weapons to "clean up" America:

<QUOTE>"To resolve the issue of America we must be able to
transcend conventions and restrictions. In history, when a country
defeated another country or occupied another country, it could not
kill all the people in the conquered land because back then you
could not kill people effectively with sabers or long spears, or
even with rifles or machine guns. Therefore, it was impossible to
gain a stretch of land without keeping the people on that
land. However, if we conquered America in this fashion, we would
not be able to make many people migrate there.

Only by using special means to “clean up” America will we be able
to lead the Chinese people there. This is the only choice left for
us. This is not a matter of whether we are willing to do it or
not. What kind of special means is there available for us to
“clean up America”? ...

Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people
will we be able to reserve America for ourselves. There has been
rapid development of modern biological technology, and new
bio-weapons have been invented one after another. Of course, we
have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the
opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of
achieving our purpose of “cleaning up” America all of a
sudden."<END QUOTE>

So Chi Haotian concludes that the way to solve the "Issue of America"
is to conquer America, and then "clean up America" by unleashing
biological weapons.

Chi doesn't say how America would be conquered, but today's CCP has
been stockpiling nuclear weapons and building silos, implying that
they plan a massive nuclear missile attack where military targets and
American cities are all fired upon at the same time, to knock out
America quickly.

****
**** Spreading Covid-19 as a 'beta test' of biological weapons
****

Having completed my analysis of Chi Haotian's 2003 speech, you can see
why I've done a U-turn, and I now believe that China's release of
Covid-19 on the entire world was intentional, and was actually a kind
of "beta test" for a full bio-chemical attack in the future.

Here's what we know:

• Once the virus started spreading in Wuhan in 2019, China
  clamped down on any attempt to report it. Some doctors were jailed
  simply for telling other people.
  
  
• For a period of several weeks in Dec-Jan, China was purposely
  spreading the virus to 180 nations around the world, while preventing
  its spread within China. China was lying about its transmissibility,
  and was able to coerce their puppets at the World Health Organization
  (WHO) to support their lies. China also sent people around the world
  to purchase gowns and masks and any other materials (personal
  protective equipment or PPE) that could be used by medical
  personnel.
  
  
• China has used economic boycotts to punish Australia and any other
  country or organization calling for an investigation into the Wuhan
  Lab. China is still blocking any investigation into the Wuhan
  Lab.

For me, the logic is as follows: So many of the things that the CCP
has done for years that I consider insane are explained by Chi
Haotian's 2003 speech, and if I were to try to devise a way to "beta
test" using a biological weapon in the world, I would probably have
done it the way the CCP spread Covid-19 around the world.

If you take a virus and turn it into a bioweapon, the type of research
is named "gain-of-function." The enhanced virus may be more lethal,
may spread more easily, or may target only certain kinds of entities.
For example, in 2000 Dutch researchers genetically engineered the
spike protein of a mouse coronavirus so that it would attack only
cats, but not rodents.

The nightmare scenario for the world is that Chinese scientists might
similarly engineer a virus that attacks all humans, excluding all
those with Chinese DNA. This would be entirely expected from
Chi Haotian's glorification of the unique Chinese DNA.

However, if this was some kind of "beta test," then many lessons
have been learned all around. Scientists and politicians in the
United States have learned a lot about handling virus outbreaks, and
those lessons would be applied to a biological weapon.

A lesson that the Chinese may be learning is that viruses can mutate
when they're out in the wild. As I'm writing this article, hundreds
of people in China are suddenly being infected by a "delta variation"
of the virus that they infected the world with. That's the danger of
using a bioweapon -- you can't be sure that it won't turn against you,
once you lose control of it.


China-Japan Book

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian - 2003 (JRNyquistBlog, 11-Sep-2019)
  
• Chi Haotian: A Political Biography (Hoover.org)
  
• Chinese Roots Lie in Africa, Research Says (LATimes, 29-Sep-1998)
  
• Zhao Ziyang -- premier of China (Britannica)
  
• Dr Li-Meng Yan / Chinese virologist: China's government 'intentionally' released COVID-19 (Fox News, 15-Sep-2020)
  
• Early Warning Brief: Xi Jinping Issues Tough Warnings to Enemies Within the Party (Jamestown, 23-Jul-2021)

Related Articles:

• China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan (24-Jul-2021)
  
  
• Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China (28-Jun-2021)
  
  
• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan (23-Sep-2020)
  
  
• George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China (27-Jan-2019)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
Wuhan Virology Lab, General Chi Haotian, Peking Man,
Analects of Confucius, Art of War, Sun Tzu,
Tiananmen Square, Zhao Ziyang,
Hitler, Nazi Germany, One Child Policy,
Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong,
United States, Canada, Australia
Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Japan,
Sha Zukang, Zhu Chenghu

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John J. Xenakis
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** 02-Aug-2021 World View: The Wuhan world infection strategy (WWIS)

The Nuclear War thread contains a lengthy debate about China's
strategy. The latest phase of this debate starts here:
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=62959#p62959

This follows my recent article

** 31-Jul-21 World View -- Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210731


I admit that I find this entire turn of events to be personally mind
boggling. The purpose of this post is to summarize my current
thoughts, even though those thoughts are evolving.

For the time being, I'm using the phrase "Wuhan world infection
strategy" (WWIS) to describe the CCP's actions of infecting the world
with the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19).

It now seems clear that the Covid virus was developed in the Wuhan
virology lab. It escaped into the Wuhan population either
intentionally or accidentally -- that isn't settled. Either way, the
CCP claimed it had jumped from an animal to a human in a wet market, a
claim that has been debunked. The CCP has also claimed that it was
brought in through frozen foods or that it was brought in by the US
army, claims that have no credibility.

Once the virus started spreading through the Wuhan population, China's
then actions are clear. There was a deep coverup. The CCP encouraged
travel to and from Wuhan from anywhere in the world, except within
China itself. This was deliberate, and it spread the virus to 180
countries, while protecting China.

That's WWIS in a nutshell. The problem is that as an intentional act,
WWIS does not fit into General Chi Haotian's script. Chi's script
calls for conquering the United States "at one blow," and then using a
biological weapon, or some other means, to kill off any of the
remaining people, so that the land will be emptied, and the Chinese
can colonize it. (Just typing those sentences, I can hardly believe
how evil and insane this plan is.)

But the WWIS does not fit into that script if it was intentional. If
it was accidental, then the WWIS can be seen as a way of recovering
from the mistake. But if it was intentional, it defeats the scripted
plan of defeating America "in one blow."

If it was intentional, then I believe it must have been a "beta test,"
as I've said before. WWIS was launched with the CCP claiming that it
was accidental, with the "wet market" explanation. If the test had
been successful, then nobody would have blamed China. In fact, China
hoped they would be celebrated as the country that had been most
effective at controlling the virus. In fact, Xi Jinping gave several
speeches in 2020 claiming a historic Chinese victory over the virus.

Whether accidental or intentional, WWIS has been a disaster for the
CCP. Instead of being celebrating for controlling the virus, the CCP
is being blamed and condemned for purposely spreading the virus to 180
countries, while protecting China. China's actions will be under
intense scrutiny around the world from now on, and any new attempt to
spread a virus will be immediately recognized and blocked.

Xi Jinping and the CCP believe that defeating the United States
and colonizing America's land is essential for the existence
of China and the CCP. This was the goal formulated by
Deng Xiaoping after the death of Mao Zedong, and is the
goal that the CCP has been working toward for at least 30 years.

General Chi Haotian has provided a detailed script for achieving
that goal, and the CCP has been successfully following that script
for most of the last 20 years.

But my point is that Trump's refusal to sign the US-China trade deal
in May 2019 threw the CCP off their script, and then Trump's shutting
down travel to the US in January 2020 threw them off their script
again. And now the delta variant is throwing them off their script
again.

With the step-by-step Chi Haotian script in shambles, the CCP will
have to do something desperate, comparable to Japan's bombing of Pearl
Harbor. Unfortunately, the desperate move is likely to be a full
nuclear and EMP attack on the United States.