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*** 7-Jun-18 World View -- Turkey and Greece tensions rise with warplane dogfights over Aegean Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and Greece tensions rise with warplane dogfights over Aegean Sea
  
• Deep millennia-old issues separate Turkey and Greece
  

****
**** Turkey and Greece tensions rise with warplane dogfights over Aegean Sea
****


Alexis Tsipris and Recep Tayyip Erdogan meeting in Athens last December (AFP)

On Tuesday, Turkish warplanes held a barrage of flyovers over the
Aegean Sea, in some cases flying over Greece's airspace. The flyovers
are in revenge for the release of the last four of eight military
servicemen into protective custody.

Since the aborted coup attempt on Turkey on July 16, 2016, Turkey has
been demanding the extradition of eight Turkish soldiers who fled to
northern Greece after the coup. The eight soldiers, including two
commanders, four captains and two sergeants, had escaped to Greece on
a Sikorsky helicopter and landed in Alexandroupolis. The soldiers
denied involvement in the coup, but said that they would not receive a
fair trial in Turkey.

Greece refused to extradite them without an appropriate court hearing,
and an extradition trial in Greece requested by Turkey. The detention
period expired after 18 months, without Turkey having requested a
trial in Greece. In March, the Council of State -- Greece’s highest
administrative court -- ruled that the first of the eight men should
be freed from detention, although he's barred from leaving Greece, and
stays at a secret location with tight security, as his asylum
application is ongoing. These rulings have continued, and on Tuesday
the last four of the eight military servicemen were similarly freed.

According to a Greek analyst:

<QUOTE>"The dilemma for the Greek authorities was that if
these people were sent back to Turkey ... a fair trial is not
guaranteed. And that was at a time [July, 2016] when the
re-instatement of the death penalty was frequently discussed at
many levels including [that of] President Erdogan.

So it was impossible for the Greek justice system to send them
back. It has nothing to do with their actual guilt or innocence,
it was about the right to a fair trial [if] they were sent back to
Turkey."<END QUOTE>

Turkey refers to the eight soldiers as "putschists," and blamed Greece
for harboring traitors:

<QUOTE>"The release of all the fugitive putschists cannot be
explained as a routine administrative decision pertaining to their
detention period.

The release of the traitors who plotted a coup in order to
overthrow democracy in a neighboring country by a country, which
claims to be the cradle of the democracy conforms neither to
international law, nor to good neighborly relations."<END QUOTE>

Turkey retaliated in March by seizing two Greek soldiers, who had
crossed the border from Greece into Turkey. The soldiers say they
inadvertently strayed across the frontier in bad weather.

In April, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked Turkey's
seizure of the two Greek soldiers to the fate of the eight Turkish
soldiers who had fled after the aborted coup: "It is not fair to be
concerned only by the Greek soldiers and not be concerned about the
Turkish soldiers." Greek Reporter and Radio France International and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Guardian (London, 12-March)

****
**** Deep millennia-old issues separate Turkey and Greece
****

On December 7-8, 2017, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a
state visit to Greece's president Alexis Tsipras in Athens, the first
official visit between heads of state since 1952. It appears that no
issues were resolved at that meeting, least of all the fate of the
Turkish soldiers being held in Greece.

Wars between Greece and Turkey go back millennia, even celebrated in
Greek mythology in the story of the Trojan Horse and the fall of Troy.
In 1974, the countries fought a war over the island of Cyprus, with
the result that the small island is split between a Greek portion and
a Turkish portion. Cyprus unification talks are frequently scheduled,
but with tensions growing between Greece and Turkey, they are unlikely
to succeed.

Besides the issues of Cyprus and the soldiers being held by each side,
there has been a growing disagreement over the sovereignty of hundreds
of islands in the Aegean Sea. The boundaries between Turkey and
Greece, and the disposition of the islets in the Aegean Sea, were
settled by the Treaty of Lausanne, signed by both countries on July
24, 1923.

According to Erdogan, Turkey was deceived and cheated when it signed
the Treaty of Lausanne, and he would like to renegotiate the treaty.
Turkey has expressed the desire to renegotiate the treaty with a
series of very belligerent military moves.

In February a Turkish vessel rammed a Greek coastguard ship as both
patrolled the waters off the Greek isle of Imia, causing extensive
damage. Imia is one of the islands that Erdogan is disputing,
claiming that it should have Turkish sovereignty.

Tuesday's flyovers by Turkish warplanes over the Aegean Sea are just
the most recent of what are being characterized as "dogfights," where
almost on a daily basis Turkish warplanes violate Greek airspace, and
the Turkish warplanes are intercepted by Greek warplanes on policing
missions. Although deaths are uncommon, a Greek fighter jet crashed
in April, killing the pilot.

It's hoped that Turkey-Greece tensions will reduce after Turkey's
national elections on June 24. Kathimerini (Athens) and Business Insider and London School of Economics and Anadolu

Related Articles:

• Turkey's president Erdogan visits Greece with a list of contentious demands (08-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Furious Turkey threatens migrant deal over Greece's failure to extradite (28-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours (17-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Aegean Sea, Cyprus,
Treaty of Lausanne

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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*** 8-Jun-18 World View -- Macedonia name issue triggers more huge protests in northern Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Macedonia name issue triggers more huge protests in northern Greece
  
• Protesters in Greece demand that Macedonia's new name be 'erga omnes'
  

****
**** Macedonia name issue triggers more huge protests in northern Greece
****


Anti-Macedonia rally in northern Greece (Kathimerini)

Widespread opposition continues in Greece to agree to change the name
of the "Republic of Macedonia" to another name that includes the word
"Macedonia." Greeks refer to their northern neighbor as the "Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM), although most of the rest of
the world just calls it "Macedonia."

Greece has vetoed attempts by Macedonia to join either Nato or the EU
because many Greeks consider "Macedonia" to be pure Greek name, as
well as the name of their own province of Macedonia, and they oppose
another other country using it as part of their own name. They are
especially infuriated by Macedonia's claims that Alexander the Great
was Macedonian. They claim that he was Greek because at that time the
Kingdom of Macedon was part of Greece.

But now it appears that the governments of the two countries are close
to agreeing to a new name. The solutions being discussed are adding a
modifier to "Macedonia," to get "New Macedonia" (as in New Zealand) or
"Northern Macedonia" (similar to North Korea) or "Upper Macedonia."
They're under pressure to reach an agreement in time for an EU summit
in late June and a Nato summit in mid-July. Once a name is agreed,
the former Yugoslav republic can move forward with plans to join both
the EU and Nato.

Tens of thousands of protesters in 23 northern Greek cities held
rallies on Wednesday, with slogans such as "Macedonia is Greek,"
"Respect our history" and "There is only one Macedonia and it is in
Greece, where King Phillip and Alexander the Great were born."

However, many politicians in Greece's New Democracy party are opposed
to any name change that includes the world "Macedonia," while many
politicians in Macedonia's VMRO-EPMNE party are opposed to changing
the name of the "Republic of Macedonia" to anything else.

Even assuming that agreement can be reached on a name with "Macedonia"
and a modifier, there are disagreements over portions of Macedonia's
constitution, and whether allowing Macedonia into the EU would be a
tacit agreement by Greece that people living in Greece's province of
Macedonia could be under the jurisdiction of the country.

Article 49 of Macedonia's current constitution says the following:

<QUOTE>"The republic is interested in the regime and the
rights of all persons belonging to the Macedonian people in
neighboring countries, as well as Macedonian expats, by assisting
in their cultural development and promoting bonds between
them."<END QUOTE>

Macedonia has been asked, as part of any agreement on a new name, to
remove this article from the constitution, but so far Macedonia has
refused. Reuters and Kathimerini and al-Jazeera and Irish Times and Deutsche Welle


****
**** Protesters in Greece demand that Macedonia's new name be 'erga omnes'
****

The phrase "erga omnes" is a Latin term meaning "in relation to
everyone." It has a technical meaning in international law referring
to acts that are illegal for any nation, such as genocide, slavery,
acts of aggression, and racial discrimination.

This high-powered legal term, erga omnes, is now being referenced to
discuss the much more prosaic problem of how to rename "The Republic
of Macedonia" in such a way that everyone in the world will be using
the same name.

According to some reports, the name most likely to be chosen is
Republic of Northern Macedonia (Severna Makedonija), where Severna
Makedonija is the Slavic version of the name Northern Macedonia.

The "erga omnes" question is whether the new name will be used by
everyone in the world, or whether the new name will be used only by
the European Union, Nato and the United Nations, with the rest of the
world continuing to use "Republic of Macedonia."

That situation already exists with the country's current name. It's
"Republic of Macedonia" to most of the world, but the official name
within the United Nations, the EU and Nato is "Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM).

So those in Greece who are opposing a settlement on the name are
saying that unless an "erga omnes" policy is adopted, then nothing
will change, except to replace one unused name (FYROM) with another
(such as Severna Makedonija), but everyone will still just call it
"Republic of Macedonia."

For these people, if there's any acceptable solution at all, then it
has to be an "erga omnes" solution, where the country officially
agrees to change its name to "Republic of Northern Macedonia," for the
entire world. Kathimerini and Kathimerini and Kathimerini

Related Articles:

• Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name compromise (05-Feb-2018)
  
  
• More than 100,000 Greeks hold mass protest over 'Macedonia' name change (23-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)
  
  
• 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
  
  
• European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans (07-May-2017)
  
  
• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Athens, Macedonia,
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexander the Great, Kingdom of Macedon,
New Macedonia, Northern Macedonia, Upper Macedonia,
New Democracy, VMRO-EPMNE,
erga omnes, Severna Makedonija

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 9-Jun-18 World View -- Argentina faces major financial crisis as IMF loans it $50 billion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Argentina faces major financial crisis as IMF loans it $50 billion
  
• Protests grow against new IMF deal in Argentina
  

****
**** Argentina faces major financial crisis as IMF loans it $50 billion
****


Protester holds up sign saying '[President] Macri + IMF = Poverty' (AFP)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to lend Argentina's
government up to $50 billion over a three year period to help the
country stanch a monetary crisis that could end in default. President
Mauricio Macri felt he was forced to get help from the IMF, even
though most Argentinian people are bitterly angry at the IMF for
pulling the plug on a previous bailout. Anti-IMF protests have
already begun, demanding that Macri back out of the agreement.

The current crisis was triggered earlier this year, when an interest
rate increase by the American Federal Reserve caused the yield
(interest rate) on American 10-year Treasury bonds to rise to 3% for
the first time since January 2014. This action by the American
central bank had a domino effect on the currencies of other countries.
Investors that had purchased bonds issued by other countries suddenly
had the choice of purchasing American 10-year bonds, normally
considered one of the least risky investments in the world, at a
higher interest rate than before.

The currencies of so-called "emerging market" countries were the
hardest hit, including Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Mexico. But
Argentina, with an inflation rate of 21% and a rapidly growing pile of
foreign-currency debt, was hit especially hard, with the result that
the peso lost 20% of its value against the dollar.

Argentina's economy had been improving since president Mauricio Macri
took office in 2015. But in retrospect, Macri made some serious error
by going too deeply into debt denominated in dollars. When the Fed
raised its interest rates to 3%, it raised the interest due on the
money that Argentina had borrowed, and now the country far into debt
that it cannot repay, and facing the possible disaster of a default.
BBC and
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bloomberg and Guardian (London)

****
**** Protests grow against new IMF deal in Argentina
****

The people of Argentina do not loath the IMF because the IMF is
lending them $50 billion. The people of Argentina loath the IMF
because the IMF imposes austerity commitment whenever it loans money,
and the mention of austerity brings back bitter memories.

In the 1990s, Argentina's peso was pegged to the dollar. In 1998, the
country faced a financial crisis, but was unable to devalue the
currency without abandoning its peg to the dollar. In 2000, the IMF
loaned Argentina billions of dollars, and imposed austerity
requirements. When Argentina failed to meet its commitment, the IMF
pulled the plug, sending Argentina into a $100 billion default.

The default was a major crisis for Argentina, which most people there
blame on the IMF. However, the economy began to stabilize president
Néstor Kirchner, who governed from 2003 to 2007. When Kirchner
declined to run for another term, his wife Cristina Fernández de
Kirchner ran for president and won. The radical far left Cristina was
president from 2007-2015, and undid all the good that her husband had
accomplished, by raising public spending, nationalizing companies, and
heavily subsidizing everything from utilities to football
transmissions on television. (Cristina, by the way, in December 2017
was arrested for allegedly covering up Iranian involvement in a 1994
bombing that killed 85 people at a Jewish community center, in order
to get favorable terms on Iranian oil.)

President Mauricio Macri is considered to have been fiscally
responsible since taking office in 2015, especially after years of
unbridled spending. However, he had no choice but to go to the IMF
for help, which many Argentinians consider to be loathsome, and that
may doom him in next year's elections. Buenos Aires Times and Economist and al-Jazeera (7-Dec-2017) and BBC (15-May)

Related Articles:

• Pope Francis may side with Argentina in Falklands dispute with Britain (15-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Venezuela's Chávez says U.S. is giving cancer to Latin leaders (15-Jan-2012)
  
  
• Works by Iannis Xenakis gain wider prominence and recognition (12-Sep-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Argentina, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Mauricio Macri, Néstor Kirchner, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner,
Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Mexico

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 10-Jun-18 World View -- Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban launches multiple terror attacks on Afghan security forces
  
• The Taliban issues a farcical 3-day ceasefire statement
  
• Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
  
• I love this picture -- from Saturday's G-7 meeting
  

****
**** Taliban launches multiple terror attacks on Afghan security forces
****


American soldiers in Camp Bost in Helmand Province, Afghanistan (Getty)

Afghan terrorists launched multiple coordinated attacks on Afghan
security forces on Friday and Saturday. Almost 50 security force
members were killed in Kunduz, Herat and Sar-e-Pul provinces.

According to officials, the Afghan National Army launched operations
in eight other provinces against insurgents, killing over 80 Taliban
and ISIS militants on Friday and Saturday.

The Taliban announced the beginning of its Spring Fighting Season in
mid-May, and clashes and attacks have increased noticeably across the
country, resulting in a rise in casualties among security and defense
force members. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Khaama (Afghanistan)

****
**** The Taliban issues a farcical 3-day ceasefire statement
****

On Saturday, the Taliban issued a farcical statement declaring a 3-day
ceasefire. As usual, Afghan and American political and military
officials are leaping to the bait, hoping that this is a sign that the
Taliban are ready for a "negotiated settlement." Here are some
excerpts:

<QUOTE>"Directives of the Leader for the Mujahideen during
Eid days

In the name of Allah, most Compassionate, most Merciful

In order that our countrymen participate in Eid prayers and other
festivities with complete confidence during the joyous days of
Eid, the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate must strictly comply with
the following directives:

1 – All Mujahideen are directed to cease all offensive operations
against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second
and third day of Eid however if Mujahideen are attacked, they must
defend with their utmost capability.

2 – Foreign occupiers are excluded from the above order. Continue
your operations against them and target them wherever and whenever
you find an opportunity. ...

5 – The Mujahideen should not participate in civilian
congregations where there could be a danger of airstrikes so that
our inhumane enemy will not be able to use it as an excuse for
their blind bombardments and civilian tragedies."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "the domestic opposition forces" refers to the Afghan
security forces.

So, the Taliban issues this statement declaring a 3-day ceasefire
against "the domestic opposition forces" at the same time that it's
conducting massive coordinated terror attacks against those same
forces.

Furthermore, the "foreign occupiers," referring to the US-led
coalition forces, are not included in the ceasefire.

The Taliban have repeatedly said that their objective is to force the
US-led coalition forces to leave, after which they would easily defeat
"the domestic opposition forces" in many parts of the country.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Long War Journal

****
**** Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
****

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
has issued a "lessons learned" report for 2018 on the US experience in
trying to implement a stabilization strategy in Afghanistan. The
report says that pretty much everything the US forces did in
Afghanistan was a failure, and that's a conclusion I agree with.

Before providing excerpts, let me remind long-time readers that I've
been writing for almost ten years that a simple Generational Dynamics
analysis shows that any sort of victory or stabilization against the
Taliban is literally impossible.

As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.

But you don't have to know anything about generational history to
understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there
was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the
Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in
northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are
Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for
atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely
irrelevant.

So even if the Taliban leaders agreed to some settlement, it would not
satisfy their sons and daughters, who are not going to be deterred in
their search for revenge. That's the way the world works.

The SIGAR report says, in many many words, that the Afghan
stabilization operation has been a disaster. Here's a summary of the
report's conclusions:

<QUOTE>"Between 2001 and 2017, U.S. government efforts to
stabilize insecure and contested areas in Afghanistan mostly
failed.

The U.S. government overestimated its ability to build and reform
government institutions in Afghanistan as part of the
stabilization strategy. During the 2009 Afghanistan strategy
reviews, President Obama and his civilian and military advisors
set in motion a series of events that fostered unrealistic
expectations of what could be achieved. They also ensured the
U.S. government’s stabilization strategy would not succeed, first
with the rapid surge and then the rapid transition. Under immense
pressure to quickly stabilize insecure districts, U.S. government
agencies spent far too much money, far too quickly, in a country
woefully unprepared to absorb it. Money spent was often the metric
of success. As a result, programming sometimes exacerbated
conflicts, enabled corruption, and bolstered support for
insurgents.

Every organization and agency that worked on stabilization in
Afghanistan suffered from personnel and programming deficits borne
from rapid scaling, short tours, and the pressure to make quick
progress. Even harder than finding available civilians and
soldiers was finding qualified and experienced candidates who were
trained and equipped to understand and navigate local political
economies.

Stabilization is inherently political, but given DOD’s size and
resources the military consistently determined priorities and
chose to focus on the most insecure districts first. These areas
were often perpetually insecure and had to be cleared of
insurgents again and again. Civilian agencies, particularly USAID,
were compelled to establish stabilization programs in fiercely
contested areas that were not ready for them.

Because the coalition focused on the most insecure areas and
rarely provided an enduring sense of security after clearing them,
Afghans had little faith their districts would remain in
government hands when the coalition eventually withdrew and were
often too afraid to serve in local government. Implementing
partners struggled to execute projects amid the violence, the
coalition had very limited access to and understanding of
prioritized communities, and U.S. government agencies were unable
to adequately monitor and evaluate the projects that were
implemented.

As a result, powerbrokers and predatory government officials with
access to coalition projects became kings with patronage to sell,
fueling conflicts between and among communities. In turn, Afghans
who were marginalized in this competition for access and resources
found natural allies in the Taliban, who used that support to
divide and conquer communities the coalition was keen to win
over."<END QUOTE>

To anyone who understands the generational analyses of Afghanistan
that I've been writing for ten years, none of the SIGAR conclusions
are a surprise at all. Stabilization didn't work because
stabilization is impossible in Afghanistan for the generational
reasons given, and that will continue into the future.

Nonetheless, US military forces said on Friday that the US military
fight in Afghanistan will be intensified.

As I've written in the past, there may be a dynamic going on, where
the American military makes statements that the public wants to hear,
even though they don't contain a word of truth. Donald Trump and the
military understand that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger
purpose. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump
wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue
to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including
two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These
bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these
circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether
the Taliban are defeated or not. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
and AP

Related Articles

• Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan (16-May-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

****
**** I love this picture -- from Saturday's G-7 meeting
****


Picture from Saturday's G-7 meeting in Canada

BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Afghan National Army, Spring Fighting Season,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 11-Jun-18 World View -- EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants
  
• Malta refuses to accept migrants, says it 'adheres to all obligations'
  

****
**** EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants
****


Rescue vessel carrying migrants (SOS Méditerranée)

Italy is closing its ports to a migrant rescue ship with 629 migrants,
including 123 children and seven pregnant women, and is demanding that
the migrants disembark at a port in Malta.

SOS Méditerranée, which runs the Aquarius, picked up the 629 migrants
in six different rescue operations off Libya's coast on Sunday.
Standard practice in the past has been to dock at a port in Italy, and
allow the migrants to be taken in by Italy.

Italy's new policy comes about following the formation of a "populist"
government coalition between two parties,
the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S), and the right-wing
La Lega (The (Northern) League). The two parties different on many
issues, but they formed a coalition based on their shared anti-euro,
anti-EU and anti-immigrant policies, as well as lacking any fiscal
discipline. Matteo Salvini, the leader of La Lega and now interior
minister in Italy's new coalition government, has promised that Italy
will deport half a million illegal immigrants living in Italy.

Salvini has said that migrant rescue organizations act like "water
taxis," and he has previously accused migrant rescue organizations
like SOS Méditerranée of begin in cahoots with human traffickers.
According to accusations that have been aired by some officials in the
past, rescue organizations coordinate with human traffickers and then
take a share of the profits. These accusations have been denied.

On Sunday, Salvini said the following:

<QUOTE>"[Italy is saying] no to human trafficking, no to the
business of illegal immigration.

Malta takes in nobody. France pushes people back at the border,
Spain defends its frontier with weapons.

It is not possible for Malta to say 'no' to every request for
help. The Good Lord put Malta closer than Sicily to
Africa."<END QUOTE>

Salvini also says that he is considering legal action against
organizations rescuing migrants at sea.

On Saturday, 400 other rescued migrants were disembarked in the
Italian ports of Reggio Calabria and Pozzallo, after Malta refused to
let them disembark there.

Referring to the authorities in Malta, Salvini said, "God placed Malta
closer to Africa than Sicily and it cannot continue saying no to
rescue requests. ... If anyone thinks I’ll allow another summer of
(migrant) landings, without lifting a finger – that is not what I will
be doing as minister of the interior."

However, Leoluca Orlando, the mayor of Palmero, which is the capital
city of the Italian island of Sicily, has announced that he will defy
the orders coming from Salvini, and will allow the rescue boat to dock
at the port of Palmero. BBC and Malta Today and Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London)

****
**** Malta refuses to accept migrants, says it 'adheres to all obligations'
****

On Friday, the government of Malta after Malta reportedly refused a
request from the Italian coast guard to assist with some 180 migrants
in its capacity as the nearest safe port of call to the boat in
distress.

Salvini said:

<QUOTE>"The Good Lord put Malta closer to African shores than
Sicily, Malta cannot always say ‘no’ to any request to intervene,”

[The vessel] waves as it sails past Malta and then lands in
Italy. This is a mockery."<END QUOTE>

The government of Malta is deflecting any questions about whether
it has ever accepted any migrants. In an interview on the
BBC World Service, a government official refused to deny that
the number of migrants it has taken in is "zero."

Malta's Home Affairs Minister Michael Farrugia said the following:

<QUOTE>"Malta adheres to all its obligations at all
times. With regards to Search and Rescue, Malta acts in accordance
to the international conventions that apply. Malta will continue
to respect these conventions with respect to the Safety of Life at
Sea, as happened in this latest case and indeed in each
case."<END QUOTE>

Malta said the rescue operations took place in international waters
off Libya and were coordinated by Italy, and therefore, "Malta is
neither the competent nor the coordinating authority in this
case. Malta will observe prevailing laws."

As of Sunday evening, the rescue vessel Aquarius, with 639 rescued
migrants on board, was 27 miles northeast of Malta, in international
waters "awaiting orders." Independent (Malta) and Malta Today

Related Articles

• Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain and Catalonia (03-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Matteo Salvini,
Sicily, Reggio Calabria, Pozzallo, Palmero, Leoluca Orlando,
SOS Méditerranée, Aquarius, Libya, Malta, Michael Farrugia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 12-Jun-18 World View -- Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants
  
• Italy cries victory, portending a growing EU migrant crisis this summer
  

****
**** Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants
****


Italy's new interior minister Matteo Salvini (center) savors his victory

On Monday, Spain's new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered to take
in the 629 migrants on board the rescue vessel Aquarius, after both
Italy and Malta refused to allow the vessel to dock in their ports.

The Aquarius, which is owned by the NGO SOS Méditerranée, operating
under the direction of the Italian Coast Guard, picked up up the 629
migrants in six different rescue operations off Libya's coast on
Sunday. The migrants include 123 children and seven pregnant women.

After rescuing the 629 migrants, the Aquarius expected to dock, as
usual, at a port on the Italian island of Sicily, where they could
make asylum requests. Instead, Matteo Salvini, interior minister in
Italy's new anti-immigrant coalition government, ordered that the
Aquarius be refused permission to dock at an Italian port, and
demanded that the ship dock at Malta, saying "The Good Lord put Malta
closer to African shores than Sicily."

However, Malta refused to allow the Aquarius to dock, saying that
the migrants were from Libya, and therefore Italy's responsibility.

With the Aquarius running out of food and water, and with a number of
migrants requiring medical attention, the ship was stranded in the
Mediterranean Sea, about halfway between the islands of Malta and
Sicily.

On Monday afternoon, the office of Spain's prime minister Pedro
Sánchez issued this statement:

<QUOTE>"The Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has given
instructions for Spain to comply with its international
commitments in matters of humanitarian crises, and has announced
that a Spanish port will welcome the Aquarius, in which 600 people
have been abandoned to their fate in the Mediterranean. ... It is
our duty to help avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and offer a safe
port to these people, to comply with our human rights
obligations."<END QUOTE>

The offer was extended to dock in either Valencia or Barcelona.
Valencia is about 1,300 km from the Aquarius's current location, and
so would require two or three days to reach that destination.

However, organizers of the rescue mission, including NGOs SOS
Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without
Borders) are insisting that the Aquarius be permitted to dock in Italy
immediately, for two reasons.

First, the conditions on the ship are becoming increasingly desperate,
as it's overcrowded and there's a short of blankets, clean clothes,
food, and water. A 2-3 day trip in potentially stormy weather would
be dangerous to the migrants.

Second, the NGOs would like the ship to dock immediately, so that the
ship can continue to pick up the "migrants and refugees that leave
Libya in boats every day."

However, as of Monday evening, the Aquarius has received no further
instructions, and is still stranded in the same place as on Sunday
evening. The Spain Report and Euro News and BBC

****
**** Italy cries victory, portending a growing EU migrant crisis this summer
****

The peak summer migrant season is beginning, which is a huge business
where a lot of people are making a lot of money. Human traffickers
charge migrants in Libya thousands of dollars each to make the trip to
Europe. The fill each rubber dinghy with migrants to overcapacity,
and send it out into the Mediterranean Sea. There is no intention
that the rubber dinghy reach Europe directly. The dinghy will run out
of gas just a few miles out, and then a rescue boat like the Aquarius
is expected to rescue the migrants. Sometimes they're rescued, and
sometimes they drown. In some cases, it's believed that the human
traffickers notify an NGO that a dinghy is coming, and then the NGO
gets a kickback for rescuing the migrants.

In past years, Italy has begged the EU for help, as thousands of
migrants pour into the country each day. There was supposed to be a
plan to distribute migrants to all 28 EU member countries, but many
countries refused to accept any migrants at all. In past years,
Italy's previous government had threatened to close all its ports
to the migrant rescue ships, but they never did it.

So now Italy's interior minister Matteo Salvini is taking a hardline
stance, saying that he would not allow Italy to become "Europe’s
refugee camp." He is threatening to go through with the threat to
close all its ports to migrant rescue ships. This risks precipitating
a full-blown crisis with the EU.

The EU is still holding meeting on distributing migrants to
other countries, but getting nowhere. Germany's Chancellor
Angela Merkel said,

<QUOTE>"If we are unable to come up with a common response to
the migration challenges, the very foundations of the EU will be
at stake. Action is really needed."<END QUOTE>

However, there seems little likelihood that anything can be
accomplished. The migration problem has been the main issue that has
resulted in the election of new "populist" candidates in Italy and
elsewhere. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the
increased xenophobia and nationalism resulting from the migration
issue is extremely dangerous and destabilizing for the entire European
Union. Reuters and Politico (EU) and Guardian (London) and Daily Express (London)

Related Articles

• EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants (11-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain and Catalonia (03-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Matteo Salvini,
Sicily, SOS Méditerranée, Aquarius, Libya, Malta,
Médecins Sans Frontières, Doctors Without Borders, MSF,
Spain, Pedro Sánchez, Germany, Angela Merkel

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(01-04-2018, 09:57 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2018, 03:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]> She "stood by her man", as was then expected -- and
> pragmatic.

So you agree that in the 1990s, liberals and feminists considered it
to be OK for a democrat to rape a woman, and it's OK for his wife to
"stand by her man." That is what you're saying isn't it -- that rape
was OK in the 1990s?

Bill Clinton Wrote:> I think the norms have really changed in terms of, what you can do
> to somebody against their will

> https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/11/politics/...index.html

Bill and Hillary Clinton -- the gifts that keep on giving.

*** 13-Jun-18 World View -- Vietnam government surprised by widespread anti-China and anti-government protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam government surprised by widespread anti-China and anti-government protests
  
• Anti-government protests grow in Vietnam along with anti-China protests
  

****
**** Vietnam government surprised by widespread anti-China and anti-government protests
****


Anti-China protests in Vietnam. 'Haiyang 981' is the name of the Chinese oil rig in Vietnam's territorial waters (AP)

Protests erupted in cities across Vietnam on Sunday, triggered by a
government proposed bill to implement new special economic zones (SEZs)
that would allow land to be leased to foreign investors for a 99-year
periods. Although the bill did not mention China, the protesters
claimed that the bill would allow Chinese enclaves within Vietnam.

Tens of thousands of protesters had occupied buildings in Hanoi, the
capital city, and in Saigon (Ho Chi Minh city), with large rallies in
other cities, including solidarity protests held abroad in Paris and
Tokyo.

There's a growing animosity towards China in Vietnam because of
China's belligerent actions in the South China Sea. These actions
include China's deployment of an oil rig in Vietnam's own territorial
waters, in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and then China's use of
its vast military power to block Vietnam from exploring for oil in its
own territorial waters.

China's actions were declared illegal in 2016 by the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.

But China has ignored international law, and has been doing what the
Nazis did -- using military force to annex regions belonging to other
countries.

China deployed its oil rig in Vietnamese waters in 2014, and beginning
May 11 of that year, Vietnam erupted in anti-China protests, resulting
in Chinese businesses and factories being attacked and damaged. The
protests were fed by video in the Vietnamese media showing Chinese
coast guard ships and Naval vessels attacking Vietnamese fishing
vessels in Vietnam's own territorial waters.

With China seizing Vietnamese areas in the South China Sea, the idea
that China would have control of Vietnamese land as well has struck a
nerve in many Vietnamese people, triggering the protests on Sunday.

The dictatorial Communist government of Vietnam is not normally
responsive to public opinion, but in this case were caught by surprise
by how widespread the protests on Sunday were. If they had occurred
only in Hanoi, the government would have controlled them, but the
government was unprepared to try to control protests across the
country.

The Communist government is reacting by demanding the social
networking systems like Facebook, Twitter and Google provide
user identification to the government when demanded. This
has provoked additional protests.

China's government is warning Chinese citizens in Vietnam to take
safety precautions. Vietnam Express and South China Morning Post (7-Jun) and Diplomat (12-May-2015) and Australian Broadcasting

****
**** Anti-government protests grow in Vietnam along with anti-China protests
****

As I described in 2014 in my Generational History of Vietnam,
Vietnam has historically fought
many wars against the Chinese. The most important was the Tay-Son
rebellion, 1771-1790, the most celebrated military event in Vietnamese
history. In its explosive climax in 1789, the Vietnamese troops
repelled a much larger Chinese army in a brilliant battle that united
the country for the first time.

Although the Tay-Son rebellion united the country at the time, Vietnam
is basically two different countries, with two different ethnic
origins, where North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally
populated by ethnic Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was
populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These
ethnic differences resulted in one ethnic crisis civil war after
another, the most recent one being America's "Vietnam War" that ended
in 1974. From the point of view of Vietnam's history, America was
almost completely irrelevant in that war, as it was really a civil war
between two different ethnic cultures.

Although Vietnam's civil war ended in 1975, the enmity between the
North and South Vietnamese has not disappeared. This was particularly
apparent in 2006, when President George Bush visited Vietnam.
As his limousine traveled through the
streets of Saigon, the capital city of South Vietnam, young people
lined the streets cheering wildly. Although the Communist government
has renamed the city Ho Chi Minh city, many of the residents refuse to
use that name and call it by its historic name, Saigon.

Sunday's protests were not just anti-China; they were also
anti-government protests demanding greater democracy. Some protestors
carried banners reading “Returning Autonomy For [the] People.” Another
placard stated the protest was against the National Assembly’s
violation of the Constitution. The weekend protests may raise more
awareness about land rights issues, especially the confiscation of
land by the government. There's also a general suspicion that the
Communist government in Hanoi is making deals with China's government
in Beijing for its own benefit. Asia Times and Radio Free Asia and BBC (2-Jun)

Related Articles:

• China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence (18-May-2014)
  
  
• South Vietnamese warmly welcome George Bush, goading the Communists in Hanoi (21-Nov-2006)
  
  
• Japanese warships visit Vietnam, as China moves warplanes into South China Sea (14-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China (01-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Antiwar Democrats are freaking out over Bush's Vietnam - Iraq war comparison. (24-Aug-2007)
  

KEYS:

Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, China, South China Sea,
Haiyang 981, Hanoi, Saigon, Ho Chi Minh city,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
Tay-Son rebellion, Vietnamese Kingdom,
Champa Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 14-Jun-18 World View -- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Media coverage of Kim-Trump summit is bizarre to the point of lunacy
  
• After the summit, North Korea must make the next move
  
• President Trump says 'Sleep well tonight!'
  

****
**** Media coverage of Kim-Trump summit is bizarre to the point of lunacy
****


Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump shake hands in Singapore on Tuesday (AP)

The vitriolic hatred between the left and the right began in the
George W Bush administration and has been growing steadily since then
in a worsening trend that shows no sign of leveling off. In the
media, it's been clear for years that journalists in general have no
idea what's going on in the world, and particularly have no idea what
President Donald Trump is doing. For example, one Business Insider
news story, apparently written by someone on Mars, says that the
summit means that henceforth the world will be ruled by Beijing, not
by Washington.

For some reason, everything that Trump says and does makes sense to
me. That doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it still makes
sense. And that certainly wasn't true of Obama, who never made any
sense to me at all, and the results speak for themselves. I believe
that the reason that everything that Trump does makes sense to me is
because of Steve Bannon, who is an expert on Generational Dynamics,
and who used to be Trump's principal advisor, and is now, according to
some reports, an informal advisor.

Very little of the media coverage of the summit makes any sense since
everyone seems to be completely baffled by Trump, which is why I make
a point of saying that what Trump does makes sense to me. The pundits
on the left make bizarre claims that Kim is making a fool of Trump. I
remember particularly when Trump canceled the summit a couple of weeks
ago, Nancy Pelosi said that Kim was having a "giggle fit" over Trump's
naïveté. This woman is so incredibly stupid, she should be locked up
in order to protect her from herself. But pundits on the right aren't
too much better, since they're equally baffled by Trump, and seem
reduced to expressing hope that everything all works out.

So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:

• "Trump is alienating our allies, including Canada's
  prime minister Justin Trudeau." Trudeau did something very
  stupid -- he dumped on Trump just as Trump was leaving for the crucial
  Singapore summit, completely undercutting Trump's negotiating
  position. To preserve his negotiating position with Kim, Trump had no
  choice but to come down hard on Trudeau. The message to Kim was:
  Don't dump on Trump, or you'll regret it. Actually, Kim had already
  gotten that message when the North Korean press dumped on Trump, and
  Trump canceled the summit, forcing Kim to make amends.
  
  
• "Trump is lauding Kim, while he's condemning our
  allies." Well, if you want to get someone to agree with you in
  a negotiation, then complimenting him for agreeing with you really
  helps. What's interesting about the Singapore meeting is that Kim
  appeared to be looking up to Trump as a paternal father-figure, and
  Trump was playing into that, in order to develop a friendly
  relationship with Kim. One possibility is that Kim is dissatisfied
  with the older staff in North Korea, and is looking at Trump as more
  sensible than they are.
  
  
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
  -- and got nothing in return." I don't even know what this
  means. This "concession" is worthless unless it leads somewhere. You
  have to meet with someone to negotiate with someone. Furthermore,
  what Kim knows is that the gains from this concession can be lost with
  a single tweet from Trump -- as happened with Trudeau.
  
  
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- canceling the war
  games -- and got nothing in return." Canceling the war games
  was a very smart move. It's not a concession at all, since the war
  games can be quickly reinstated at any time. It also strengthens
  Trump's negotiating position, because when China says, "Kim gave up
  something, now you have to give up something," Trump can say, "I
  already gave up something -- the war games. Now it's Kim's
  turn."
  
  
• "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
  risked making a major technical mistake." Having an expert
  present at the meeting can be dangerous, because it means that you're
  committed to agreeing with whatever the expert says at the meeting.
  Without an expert present, Trump can say "We'll have the experts work
  out the details later."
  
  
• "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
  advance." That's one way to do it. Trump wanted to do it a
  different way -- meet with Kim on a personal level and work out the
  details later -- that's equally valid.
  
  
• "The final agreement contained no details." That's
  intentional. The details will be worked out later.

Recall that I've said in the past that the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.

Kim has completely failed in this objective. They had wanted, at this
point, for Trump to be on the defensive, and force him to make a
concession, specifically to reduce the sanctions. Trump has defeated
that objective in advance by canceling the war games.

The only way that Trump could "lose" this summit, is if he suddenly
agreed to remove sanctions. That would be a diplomatic disaster.
Washington Post and Business Insider

****
**** After the summit, North Korea must make the next move
****

Remarkably, the ball is now in North Korea's court to make a
concession -- to provide the details for how they will denuclearize
according to the CVID template -- complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization. If Kim can't come through, then the war games will
be back on, and the situation will return to square one. Also, Kim
would receive extreme paternal disapproval from Trump.

When Trump canceled the summit three weeks ago, the mainstream media
were completely baffled, and the left referred to Trump as a senile,
inexperienced idiot. I wrote that canceling the summit was a major
diplomatic victory for Trump. ( "25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit"
)

That turned out to be exactly right, as the North Koreans immediately
started suing to get the summit back on track.

Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done what
needs to be done to accomplish that goal.

But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible to get
North Korea to denuclearize, for reasons I've given repeatedly in the
past. Here's a summary:

• It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military.
  As I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
  denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
  
  
• North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
  will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
  
  
• The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
  controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
  military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
  
  
• China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
  North Korea is just a side show anyway.

There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.

First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.

Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.

The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists. The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Channel News Asia

****
**** President Trump says 'Sleep well tonight!'
****

On Wednesday morning, President Trump tweeted the following:

<QUOTE>"Before taking office people were assuming that we were
going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North
Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer -
sleep well tonight!"<END QUOTE>

In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from a
meeting with Hitler and made his famous declaration that has echoed
through time:

<QUOTE>"My good friends, for the second time in our
history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany
bringing peace with honour.

I believe it is peace for our time.

Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."<END QUOTE>

It later turned out that Hitler was planning war with Britain on the
same day that he met with Chamberlain.

To say that President Trump's tweet is eerie would not be an
overstatement. I wonder if Trump is unaware of the connection, or if
he is aware but wanted to try a little dark humor. Washington Times

Related Articles:

• North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
  
  
• North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap (27-Apr-2018)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics (07-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Donald Trump,
Steve Bannon, Nancy Pelosi, Canada, Justin Trudeau,
Neville Chamberlain

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 15-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen
  
• Houthis increase missile attacks on Saudi cities
  

****
**** Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen
****


Fighters in Saudi-led coalition (Reuters)

Large-scale ground operations, supported by the air and naval forces
of the Saudi-led coalition, began to move in on Yemen's port city of
Hodeidah on Tuesday, with the objective of regaining control of the
city from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who captured it in 2015. The
war in Yemen has been largely a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates (UAE) versus Iran since it began in 2015.

The Hodeidah deep sea port on the Red Sea has become a crucial asset
to the Houthi's war effort. NGOs use the port to import badly need
humanitarian aid, including food, water and medicines, for 8 million
Yeminis. The Houthis control these imports, and charge duties that
fund their war efforts. Furthermore, the Houthis use the port to
import Iranian weapons for the war effort.

The internationally recognized government of Yemen is led by President
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia
because of the war with the Houthis. While the Houthis are backed by
Iran, Hadi's government is backed by Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates (UAE).

According to a statement issued by Hadi earlier this week:

<QUOTE>"The liberation of Hodeidah port is a turning point in
our struggle to recapture Yemen from the militias that hijacked it
to serve foreign agendas.

The liberation of the port is the start of the fall of the Houthi
militia and will secure marine shipping in Bab al-Mandab strait
and cut off the hands of Iran, which has long drowned Yemen in
weapons that shed precious Yemeni blood."<END QUOTE>

The Saudis are hoping that the recapture of Hodeidah will force the
Houthis to sue for peace in the proxy war. However, many others
aren't so sure, as numerous previous Saudi predictions of an end to
the war have turned out to be false.

The great fear is that the urban fighting in Hodeidah will be a new
catastrophe, in a repeat of the kinds of assaults that Bashar al-Assad
conducted in Syria's cities of Aleppo and Ghouta. In fact, the
assault on Hodeidah may have to go on for weeks or months, just like
the assaults on Aleppo and Ghouta. According to Lise Grande, the UN
humanitarian coordinator for Yemen:

<QUOTE>"A military attack or siege on Hodeidah will impact
hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. In a prolonged worst
case, we fear that as many as 250,000 people may lose everything -
even their lives."<END QUOTE>

In fact, the ground forces being used by the Saudis have little
experience in urban fighting. They consist of Emirati and Sudanese
forces, as well as a combination of Yemeni groups -- some loyal to
President Abdo Mansour al Hadi, others loyal to former President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, and some advocates of Southern Yemen secession.

The fact that they include militias loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh has
some significance. Saleh used to be fighting on the side of the
Houthis, and tribes loyal to Saleh were supporting the Houthis.
However, the Houthis ambushed and killed Saleh in December of last year,
after Saleh, sickened by the
massive war deaths, called on both the Houthis and Saudis to end the
war, an act that the Houthis called betrayal. So now the tribes
formerly supporting Saleh have switched sides
from the Houthis to the Saudis, and this may be one
of the reasons that the Saudis are hopeful that Hodeidah can be
captured quickly.

Since the beginning of the war, the American and British governments
have providing weapons and logistics support to the Saudis, and they
continue to do so. However, both governments are pressuring the
Saudis to reduce civilian casualties, and are warning the Saudis of
the consequences of a potential humanitarian disaster. Middle East Eye and Australian Broadcasting and Brookings and Middle East Eye (12-Jun)

****
**** Houthis increase missile attacks on Saudi cities
****

The war in Yemen sharply escalated three months ago, when the Houthis
began attacking Saudi cities with missiles.
The missiles have no guidance systems, and the Saudis
were able to destroy many of the incoming missiles using defensive
American-supplied Patriot missiles, but not all, as there have been
some Saudi civilian casualties.

On Saturday, the Houthis fired a "projectile" into Saudi Arabia,
killing three civilians. According to a Saudi military spokesman:

<QUOTE>"The terrorist Iranian-Houthi militia has targeted
civilians with a projectile. ...

The Joint Forces Command of the coalition will strike with an iron
fist all those who threaten the safety and security of Saudi
nationals, residents and critical capabilities."<END QUOTE>

The Saudis fear that the Houthis will obtain sophisticated missiles
with guidance systems from Iran. This is one of the reasons why they
wish to take control of the Hodeidah port.

A Houthi statement warned commercial ships in the Red Sea, one of the
world’s most important trade routes, to stay 20 miles from coalition
warships or potentially face attack. Reuters and Middle East Eye (9-Jun)

Related Articles:

• Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war (27-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Lise Grande,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Ghouta

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 16-Jun-18 World View -- Cameroon condemns scathing Amnesty report on government atrocities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cameroon condemns scathing Amnesty report on government atrocities
  
• Amnesty report documents increasing violence on both sides
  

****
**** Cameroon condemns scathing Amnesty report on government atrocities
****


Cameroon Anglophone separatist

Cameroon's public relations (communications) minister Issa Tchiroma
Bakary is condemning as "crude lies" an Amnesty International report
accusing government security forces of summary killings, arrests and
property destruction that amounts to ethnic cleansing.

As I've reported many times, the atrocities described in the report
began in November 2016,
when the
Francophone (French-speaking) Cameroon government security forces
began beating and killing peaceful anti-government demonstrators in
the South Cameroons, the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of
Cameroon. The demonstrators were protesting systematic bias,
discrimination and marginalization towards Anglophones by the
Francophone government. For example, schoolteachers in the Anglophone
regions were forbidden from teaching any courses in English.

The Cameroon government, led by the 85 year old president Paul Biya,
has stepped up the torture, slaughter and other atrocities continually
since then, with numerous videos and reports on social media
documenting the atrocities. The level of atrocities ticked up
considerably in October, when the Anglophone separatists demanded
independence for the Southern Cameroons, calling it Ambazonia. This
week, there has emerged a new video purporting to show Francophone
soldiers forcing Anglophone teenage girls to crawl through mud in
front of the Cameroon Protestant College, as the men jeer at the girls
and refer to them as Ambazonians.

Last month when Peter Henry Barlerin, the US ambassador to Cameroon,
said that "there have been targeted
killings, detentions without access to legal support, family, or the
Red Cross, and burning and looting of villages," Biya's spokesman Issa
Tchiroma Bakary, said, "We do not accept the infantilization of the
Cameroonian nation."

So after this week's Amnesty International report, this same spokesman
Bakary said:

<QUOTE>"[The report] is stuffed with crude lies, hasty
deductions (and) slanderous, unacceptable maneuvering, which are
part of a strategy of harassment and destabilization of our
country in its fight against the terrorist threat."<END QUOTE>

That's how things are done these days. A country leader starts by
massacring, raping, arresting, torturing, and slaughtering peaceful
protesters of a particular class or ethnic group, and then when any
one of them strikes back, then call them "terrorists" and perform
genocide and ethnic cleansing on the whole groups. That's what Bashar
al-Assad has been doing in Syria, and that's what Burma's leaders have
been doing to the Rohingyas in Burma. If somebody complains, then the
leader's trolls say that "no evidence exists" of atrocities. AFP and Bareta News (includes video) and SCBC TV (Ambazonia)

****
**** Amnesty report documents increasing violence on both sides
****

There are increasing reports that the Anglophones are forming their own
army called the Ambazonia Defense Forces, with about 1,500 people
spread around 20 camps in the Anglophone regions. In most cases, the
people are farmers who had been forced to leave their villages, armed
with hunting rifles that are made in Nigeria.

The Amnesty report that the government calls "crude lies" is based on
interviews with over 150 victims and eye-witnesses. The burning of
villages and other ethnic cleansing can be seen in satellite images.

The report documents how Cameroon's Francophone military responded
responded to the Anglophone demonstrations:

<QUOTE>"Cameroon’s military has responded to these protests
with arbitrary arrests, torture, unlawful killings and destruction
of property. In one striking incident, satellite images and other
photographic evidence obtained by Amnesty International show the
complete destruction of the village of Kwakwa, which was burned to
the ground by Cameroonian security forces following an operation
conducted in December 2017 in connection with the killing of two
gendarmes by suspected armed separatists.

In some cases, following these security operations, people were
arbitrarily arrested and tortured while detained in illegal
detention facilities and in secret. For instance, at least 23
people, including minors, were arrested by the security forces in
the village of Dadi on 13 December 2017 and spent three days in
incommunicado detention. They told Amnesty International that
during this time security forces tortured them to extract
“confessions”, to force them to admit having supported the
separatists.

Victims described being blindfolded and severely beaten with
various objects including sticks, ropes, wires and guns, as well
as being electrocuted and burnt with hot water. Some were beaten
until they lost consciousness, and Amnesty International
documented that at least one person has died in
custody."<END QUOTE>

Ambazonian separatists have been increasingly attacking Cameroon
security personally. Between September 2017 and May 2018, at least 44
members of the security forces were killed in attacks at checkpoints,
in the streets, or on their duty stations in the Anglophone region.

<QUOTE>"Towards the end of 2017, the situation quickly
deteriorated. In October, demonstrations organized across the
Anglophone regions to celebrate the symbolic independence from the
country's French-speaking areas were met with unlawful and
excessive and deadly force. Cameroonian security forces shot dead
20 peaceful protesters, by firing indiscriminately on crowds,
including from helicopters. Dozens of wounded protesters ran away
from hospitals in mid-treatment out of fear of being
arrested. Hundreds were arrested, and thousands fled their homes,
becoming internally displaced or refugees in Nigeria. ...

Armed separatists have attacked security forces, especially
gendarmes and police, killing at least 44 of them between
September 2017 and May 2018, in both the North West and South West
regions. In one of the most recent attacks, on 1 February 2018, in
the locality of Mbingo, in the North West region, two gendarmes
manning a checkpoint were stabbed to death by a group of young
armed separatists.

Ordinary people have been targeted too. Teachers and students
accused of not participating in the boycott have been physically
assaulted, and at least 42 schools have been attacked by armed
separatists from February 2017 to May 2018 in both the North West
and South West regions. ...

In addition, armed separatists have attacked ordinary people –
including traditional chiefs - perceived as being informants of
the Cameroonian security forces."<END QUOTE>

Cameroon's last generational crisis war was the "UPC Revolt,"
1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the
French government in the Cameroun colony. The outcome was
independence in 1961, when the British Cameroons colony and the French
Cameroun colony were merged into a single country, and the Anglophones
became a disadvantaged and marginalized minority. Today, the
Anglophone regions are known as the "Southern Cameroons."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, examination of
hundreds of examples throughout history shows that 58 years after the
end of a previous generational crisis war, the society or nation
enters a generational Crisis era, and a new crisis war can begin, and
becomes increasingly likely in each year after that. 58 years is the
length of time before the generations that survived the previous
crisis war and have personal memories of its atrocities disappear,
either retiring or dying. After that, the younger generations are
completely in control, and have no fear of another war.

The year 2018 is exactly 58 years after the end of the "UPC Revolt"
civil war. That doesn't mean that a new civil war will begin this
year, but it doesn't mean that the probability of a new civil war is
significantly higher than it was last year. The events in Cameroon in
the last nine months show that Cameroon is certainly headed in that
direction. Amnesty International and Radio France International

Related Articles

• Dozens killed in English-speaking Cameroon region by French-speaking government police (28-May-2018)
  
  
• Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border (08-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Cameroon Catholic Church splits over government 'barbarism' and 'growing genocide' (15-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend school (31-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Brief generational history of Cameroon (15-Feb-2017)
  
  
• War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era (27-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons,
Anglophones, Francophones, Paul Biya, Amnesty International,
Cameroon Protestant College,
Ambazonia, Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons,
Peter Henry Barlerin, Issa Tchiroma Bakary

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 17-Jun-18 World View -- Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As Aquarius migrants head for Spain, Spain rescues 900 more migrants from Mediterranean
  
• Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU
  

****
**** As Aquarius migrants head for Spain, Spain rescues 900 more migrants from Mediterranean
****


Migrants on the Aquarius (AP)

Spain's new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered to take in 629
migrants who are on board the rescue ship Aquarius, as we described
early last week, after both Italy and Malta refused to allow the
vessel to dock in their ports.

That was after Italy's new interior minister, Matteo Salvini, had
refused to allow the Aquarius to dock at an Italian port to allow the
migrants to disembark, which had been the practice for several years.

The NGOs SOS Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors
Without Borders) were concerned that if the Aquarius had to stay at
sea for three or four more days to travel an additional 1,300 km to
reach Spain, then the delay would be dangerous to the migrants, many
of whom were ill and had come close to drowning when their rubber
dinghies sank before the migrants were rescued by the Aquarius.

Nonetheless, the Aquarius began its journey to Valencia, Spain. In
order to relieve the suffering on the Aquarius, Maltese and Italian
navy ships resupplied the Aquarius with bottles of water, food
packages and clothing for the 1,300km voyage. Furthermore, in an
ironic twist, two Italian naval and coastguard vessels took on board
400 of the 629 migrants to relieve overcrowding, and now all three
boats are expected to arrive in Valencia on Sunday.

Pope Francis had condemned Italy's decision to block the ship from
port, denouncing acts that make the Mediterranean into "an anonymous
grave." According to the Pope:

<QUOTE>"The Aquarius, has been like a slap that has shaken
our consciences and has put us on our feet to attend to those who
knock at the door of the heart and the collective conscience of
peoples and nations. And they call upon people of good will, and
above all they call upon the humanitarian and Christian
conscience."<END QUOTE>

The people of Valencia, Spain, are reportedly ready to welcome the
migrants with food and shelter. Cardinal Antonio Cañizares of
Valencia, after meeting with the pope, sent a message to the entire
archdiocese of Valencia, said that the pope has thanked the diocese of
Valencia for its generation. Cañizares quoted the pope as telling
him:

<QUOTE>"This is the path, don’t ever abandon it: that of
charity; remain steady in charity, in the good example, in the
light and the good taste of charity and works of charity. The pope
is with you, with the diocese of Valencia."<END QUOTE>

After the migrants dock in Valencia, they will receive assistance and,
eventually, be distributed across Spain.

In addition to the Aquarius, Spain's own vessels are rescuing hundreds
of migrants in the Mediterranean. Spain’s coast guard rescued 933
migrants and found four dead bodies in the Mediterranean Friday and
Saturday. The rescues were from dozens of small dinghies in the
Gibraltar strait, and in the Alboran Sea, between northeastern Morocco
and southeastern Spain.

Spain's new Socialist government, led by prime minister Pedro Sánchez,
has taken up the cause of the migrants' plight to demonstrate its
commitment to protecting human rights and respecting international
law. He can take that position when only a few hundred migrants are
involved, but he may have to change his mind if there are tens or
hundreds of thousands. Reuters and Crux Now and AP and Reuters


****
**** Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU
****

Italy’s new interior minister Matteo Salvini, who leads the far-right
anti-immigrant party La Lega, doubled down on Saturday on his policy:

<QUOTE>"Italy no longer wants to be an accomplice of human
traffickers and contribute to the business of illegal
immigration."<END QUOTE>

He said that in the course of blocking two additional NGO-operated
ships flying Dutch flags, the Lifeline and Seefuchs. An NGO worker on
one of the vessels posted a tweet referring to Salvini as a "fascist,"
though the tweet was taken down soon after. Salvini responded, "As a
father and as a minister, they can attack and threaten me all they
want, but I won’t give up and I’m doing it for everybody’s sake."

In fact, a recent poll shows that Salvini's anti-immigration policy is
extremely popular, with 59% of Italians favoring it.

Furthermore, Italy's policies are achieving their goals, in that the
number of people leaving Libya for Italy, 22,000 so far this year, is
down an enormous 70% from the same period last year. The number that
actually reach Italy is down even further, because Libya's coast guard
is also performing rescue missions, and returning the migrants they
rescue to Libyan soil, where they're put into brutal detention
centers.

This is the result of an EU policy adopted last year, led by Italy's
government, to revive Libya's coast guard. The Libyan coast guard had
fallen into disrepair after the death in 2011 of dictator Muammar
Gaddafi. But Italy has worked with officials in Libya to allow the
Libyan coast guard to perform a large portion of the sea rescues.

This has created a competition between the NGOs and the Libyan coast
guard, when they both arrived at the same scene with migrants in
rubber dinghies facing drowning. In one instance, 20 migrants drowned
in competition between an NGO and the Libya coast guard, competing to
save dozens of migrants.

The result is that among the nine most prominent NGO rescue
organizations, three have stopped or suspended their operations over
the past year. A spokesman for the Aquarius says, "We will not enter
into a battle with the Libyan coast guard, where people are armed."
Instead, the Aquarius will stay on the horizon, watching from several
miles away. "We had this situation several times, where we had to look
completely helpless."

There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here. As
I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people.

So in the current situation, it's not Matteo Salvini who is making the
decisions to adopt anti-immigrant policies. Salvini's policies have a
59% approval rating, and it's doubtful that he could implement any of
them if their approval rating were only 30%. It's the people of
Italy who are deciding these policies, first by electing MPs from
Salvini's party, and then by approving of his policies.

Most people, even the most hard-hearted Scrooges, would say that they
would like to see migrants, especially women and children, sheltered
and fed, provided that it didn't cost anything. But the irony is that
the humanitarian system that protects migrants, and feeds and shelters
them, can get overwhelmed, and the costs become overwhelming as well,
and that's the reason why voters turn against that humanitarian
system. As Karl Marx might say, the humanitarian system contains
the seeds of its own destruction.

The issue of migration is dealing one blow after another to the unity
of the European Union. A lot of the motivation for Britain's
affirmative vote on the Brexit referendum was to keep migrants out --
although I always like to point out many of the migrants that the
British wish to keep out are not Muslims but are Christians from
Eastern Europe, just as many Americans wish to keep out Christians
from Latin America. Migration is far from being just a religious
issue.

Germany's Angela Merkel has been widely condemned for her decision, in
2015, to encourage Syrian refugees to come to Germany. Her decision
was based on the founding principles of the European Union and the
1957 Treaty of Rome where, having suffered the devastation of two
world wars and fearing a third, the European survivors saw as a major
cause of those world wars the same nationalism and xenophobia that's
increasingly prevalent today.

Merkel's government may not survive the next two weeks. Merkel is now
facing an open revolt from her own interior minister, Horst Seehofer.
Seehofer wants Germany to adopt a policy to unilaterally to send back
migrants who have registered in other European Union countries, which
would amount to a rejection of all migrants into Germany. However,
Merkel is standing her ground, saying, "This is a European challenge
that also needs a European solution. And I view this issue as decisive
for keeping Europe together." The MPs may not agree. Politico (EU) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post and Reuters

Related Articles

• Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants (12-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain and Catalonia (03-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Matteo Salvini,
SOS Méditerranée, Aquarius, Libya, Malta,
Médecins Sans Frontières, Doctors Without Borders, MSF,
Valencia, Spain, Pedro Sánchez, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Pope Francis, Antonio Cañizares, Lifeline, Seefuchs,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi,
Britain, Brexit, Syria, Treaty of Rome, Horst Seehofer

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 18-Jun-18 World View -- India cancels ceasefire in Kashmir after one month

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India cancels ceasefire in Kashmir after one month
  
• Controversial one-sided UN report on Kashmir condemns India
  

****
**** India cancels ceasefire in Kashmir after one month
****


Indian army in Kashmir (PTI)

India announced on Sunday that it would not renew a month-old
unilateral ceasefire in the Indian-controlled portions of Jammu and
Kashmir. Instead, it will resume military operations against rebels
whom it considers to be terrorists or suspected terrorists.

India had halted military operations on May 16, which was the start of
the Ramadan, the annual Muslim fasting month. Jammu and Kashmir are
Muslim-majority regions, and it was hoped that the ceasefire gesture
would bring an end to the violence between Hindus and Muslims in
Kashmir. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, such an
outcome was 100% impossible.

Home Minister Rajnath Singh said:

<QUOTE>"While the security forces have displayed exemplary
restraint during this period, the terrorists have continued with
their attacks, on civilians and SFs (security forces), resulting
in deaths and injuries.

The security forces are being directed to take all necessary
actions as earlier to prevent terrorists from launching attacks
and indulging in violence."<END QUOTE>

The decision not to extend the ceasefire was made on Friday, during a
high-level government meeting in New Delhi. The debate was won by the
side opposing an extension because anti-government violence continued
as usual during the month-long ceasefire, especially the assassination
of veteran journalist Shujaat Bukhari and his two security guards on
June 14. Bukhari was well-known as editor of the newspaper Rising
Kashmir. The Hindu and AFP and Deccan Herald (India) and BBC

****
**** Controversial one-sided UN report on Kashmir condemns India
****

A report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for
Human Rights (ONCHR) condemns India's actions in Jammu and Kashmir
as human rights violations.

The UN report describes the same sequence of events that I've been
reporting on for two years. On July 8 2016,
Burhan Wani, 22, the leader of anti-Indian separatist organization
Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed in a gunfight with the Indian Army.
This triggered massive anti-Indian protests and clashes with Indian
police that killed 36 and left thousands injured.

These clashes continued into the fall, and then resumed again in the
Spring of 2017. In all the clashes, Indian police responded with
rubber bullets, leaving thousands of protesters wounded or killed or
blinded by pellets.

The UN report described these incidents, but is rejected by
India amid claims that the report is one-sided, and does not
document the activities of Pakistan-supported terrorist
groups in Kashmir.

However, the report is not completely silent on these terrorist
groups. According to the UN report:

<QUOTE>Since the late 1980s, a variety of armed groups has
been actively operating in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir,
and there has been documented evidence of these groups committing
a wide range of human rights abuses, including kidnappings,
killings of civilians and sexual violence. The landscape of armed
intervention by groups operating in Indian-Administered Kashmir
has shifted over the years. In the 1990s, around a dozen
significant armed groups were operating in the region; currently,
less than half that number remain active. The main groups today
include Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen and
Harakat Ul-Mujahidin; they are believed to be based in
Pakistan-Administered Kashmir. Hizbul Mujahideen is also part of
the United Jihad Council, which began as a coalition of 14 armed
groups in 1994, claiming to be fighting Indian rule in Kashmir,
that was allegedly formed by Pakistan’s defence
establishment. Despite the Government of Pakistan’s assertions of
denial of any support to these groups, experts believe that
Pakistan’s military continues to support their operations across
the Line of Control in Indian-Administered Kashmir. Three of
these armed groups (Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and
Harakat Ul-Mujahidin) are listed on the Security Council “ISIL
(Da’esh) & Al-Qaida Sanctions List” for their activities in
Indian-Administered Kashmir among other places."<END QUOTE>

It's true that the accusations of Pakistan-supported terrorism
in Kashmir are far more tentative than the accusations of
human rights violations by Indian security forces. But nobody
escapes condemnation in this report.

As I described in the past,

India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion,
and the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of the
Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. From the point of view
of Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan and Kashmir are now in a new
generational Crisis era, and headed for another war, re-fighting the
1947 Partition war. No Ramadan ceasefire has any chance of preventing
this. UN OHCHR - Kashmir report and New Indian Express and Dawn (Pakistan) and Human Rights Watch

Related Articles

• Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths (02-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Portions of Indian-governed Kashmir shut down after deadly clashes (09-Mar-2018)
  
  
• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
  
  
• 26-Nov-17 Pakistan releases Hafiz Saeed, mastermind of the horrific 2008 26/11 Mumbai massacre (26-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leave thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  
  
• After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis (30-Nov-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir,
1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War, Ramadan,
Rajnath Singh, Shujaat Bukhari.
Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, ONCHR,
Birhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

I don't think Seehofer is going to bring down Merkel's government over immigration. That said, Germany is a federal republic, so Merkel's government may have to live with immigrants coming through other borders than Bavaria's. The reaction to the migrant issue may also affect the next election; what would be big would be if the CSU sees the way to including AfD in the next government, and managed to bring the CDU along on that.

(06-18-2018, 01:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think Seehofer is going to bring down Merkel's government over immigration.  That said, Germany is a federal republic, so Merkel's government may have to live with immigrants coming through other borders than Bavaria's.  The reaction to the migrant issue may also affect the next election; what would be big would be if the CSU sees the way to including AfD in the next government, and managed to bring the CDU along on that.

I suspect that Europewide tolerance of the ongoing immigrant flow may finally be hitting its peak. Tom Friedman put it best: people are fleeing from the unstable world to the stable one, but that world has limits.  I think his point dealt with this exactly.  If you add too much burden to the stable world it will either become unstable or fascistic.  Both tendencies seem to rearing their ugly heads right now.

*** 19-Jun-18 World View -- Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
  
• Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
  

****
**** Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
****


Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference in Sochi (AFP)

An airstrike on Iraqi Shia militias on Sunday evening killed dozens of
fighters supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The airstrike targeted a position in Syria's Deir az-Zour province,
near the border with Iraq.

Syrian media blamed the US-led coalition for the airstrike. According
to the report from Syrian media SANA, the fighters were from the
regime army, and they were fighting ISIS:

<QUOTE>"A military source said in a statement to SANA that
the US-led coalition on Sunday targeted one of our military
positions in the town of Al-Hiri, southeast of al-Boukamal city,
leaving a number of martyrs and wounding other people. ...

The coalition has been targeting the military positions in a
desperate attempt to raise the collapsed morale of the terrorist
organizations due to the achievements of the Syrian army.

The field reports confirm that Washington provides Daesh [ISIS]
organization with various kinds of support to prevent its collapse
and invest it to keep its forces illegally in the Syrian territory
and steal the economic resources in the eastern region through its
mercenaries of terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>

By Monday evening, numerous reports have come up describing errors in
the SANA report, essentially making it "fake news."

Most important, the US-led coalition had conducted no airstrikes in
the region on Sunday evening, and the US military repeatedly denied
that the US coalition had anything to do with the airstrike.

Second, there have been reports that the most likely force behind the
airstrikes was the Israeli military. Israel is refusing comment, but
unnamed Israeli military sources are confirming this off the record.

Israel rarely comments on its airstrikes in Syria, but prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that Israel
is "already taking action" against Iran in Syria:

<QUOTE>"Over the weekend I spoke with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We
discussed regional issues and focused -- of course -- on Syria.

I reiterated our guiding principles regarding Syria. First of all,
Iran needs to withdraw from all of Syria. Second, we will take
action -- and are already taking action -- against efforts to
establish a military presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria
both close to the border and deep inside Syria. We will act
against these efforts anywhere in Syria."<END QUOTE>

This statement by Netanyahu actually represents a bit of an expansion
of previously announced policy. Previous policy indicated that
Israeli airstrikes would be focused on southern Syria, along the
border with the Israeli-governed Golan Heights. In Sunday's
statement, Netanyahu made it clear that Israel will strike pro-Iranian
targets anywhere in Syria. That statement clears up some confusion
about whether Israel could have been responsible for the Sunday
evening airstrike, whose target had been much deeper into Syria than
previous Israeli airstrikes.

A final problem with the Sana story is that it wasn't clear about what
forces the Israeli airstrikes were targeting. It has emerged that
40-50 militia fighters were killed, a combination of Syrian army
forces, Iraqi Hezbollah forces, and Iran-backed members of the Popular
Mobilization Forces (PMU) umbrella organization, which takes its
orders from Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. SANA (Damascus) and CNN and Debka (Israel) and Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs

****
**** Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
****

Netanyahu's statement, quoted above, confirms something that's been
increasingly clear for at least two years -- that Israel's alliance
with Russia is growing, and that Russia is doing nothing to stop
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria.

That Russia's relationship with Israel is getting closer couldn't have
been demonstrated more clearly than when Russia openly accepted
Jerusalem as Israeli's capital and on June 14 attended a celebration
of Russia's Independence Day at a reception being held in Jerusalem.

Russia, Iran and Turkey formed an alliance in 2015 to support al-Assad
in Syria's civil war, with each one taking on a different
"assignment." But it's always been fairly certain that once these
"assignments" were completed, then there would be no long left for
them to fight except each other, since they all had different
objectives.

Russia's objective was to establish Russian military bases in
Syria, and it has accomplished that with naval and air bases.
Iran's objective was to establish its own bases in Syria, where
they could be used to launch attacks on Israel. Russia does not
want Iran to have bases in Syria, and more important, Russia
does not want a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.

Iran does have thousands of trainers, advisors, technicians and other
support specialists to make the Syrian Army and their Iranian allies.
According to one estimate, Iran supervises over 50,000 mercenary
forces in Syria, mainly Shias from Afghanistan and Lebanon. As we
reported in 2015,
al-Assad's army
was near collapse, and was saved only through the intervention of
Russian bombers and Iranian mercenaries.

As the role of the Iranian mercenaries winds down, Russia is demanding
that "all foreign troops" (except themselves) leave Syria. Of course
this is nominally directed at the Americans and Turks, but it's also
directed at the Iranians. One thing most everyone can agree on,
including most European and Middle Eastern nations, is that Iran
should get out of Syria. Until that happens, the chances of a war
between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue to grow. Al-Monitor and Strategy Page (12-June) and Spectator (UK) and Media Line

Related Articles

• Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-US rant (02-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria (26-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse (08-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Deir az-Zour, Iraq, Golan Heights,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMU, Qassem Soleimani,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(06-18-2018, 01:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think Seehofer is going to bring down Merkel's government over immigration.  That said, Germany is a federal republic, so Merkel's government may have to live with immigrants coming through other borders than Bavaria's.  The reaction to the migrant issue may also affect the next election; what would be big would be if the CSU sees the way to including AfD in the next government, and managed to bring the CDU along on that.

The EU needs to stop subjecting their citizenries to globalist tyranny and Human Rights Tyranny. Peoples around the world are saying no to this yoke.

*** 20-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah
  
• United Nations renews its peace plan proposal
  

****
**** Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah
****


Tribal Yemeni fighter in town of al-Bayda on May 9 (The National)

The news agencies of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are reporting that
troops from the Saudi-led military coalition have taken control of a
large part of the airport in Yemen's port city of Hodeidah on Tuesday,
recapturing it from Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled the
port since 2015.

This comes a week after the coalition began large-scale ground
operations against the port city, supported by air and naval forces,
as we described in "15-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen."

However, the road that leads from the airport to Hodeidah's city
center is heavily populated, and there is still heavy ground fighting
going on with the Houthis, with the coalition fighters supported by
close air support from Apache helicopter gunships.

Capturing the airport is an important first step for the coalition in
recapturing the port city, but a lot more is necessary. Hodeidah is
densely population with around 600,000 people, and the Houthis are
well entrenched within the population. It's feared that the urban
house-to-house fighting will go on for months, just as we've already
seen in the fights by Iraqi forces against ISIS in Mosul or the
Kurdish YPG forces against ISIS in Raqqa in Syria. Similar urban
fighting in Hodeidah could cost the lives of as many as 250,000
people, according to UN estimates.

It's not expected that the Saudi coalition will use the same tactics
that Bashar al-Assad used in ejecting opposition rebels from Aleppo
and Ghouta in Syria. Al-Assad used barrel bombs laced with chlorine
gas specifically targeting women and children, and also used Sarin gas
to kill large numbers of civilians. Even with the use of chemical
weapons, those battles took several months. The National (UAE) and Reuters

****
**** United Nations renews its peace plan proposal
****

The fear of casualties resulting from the Saudi coalition assault on
Hodeidah goes far beyond the possible casualties in the port city
itself. NGOs use the port to import badly need humanitarian aid,
including food, water and medicines, for 8 million Yeminis, out of a
total population of 22 million. Many Yemenis are already on the verge
of starvation already, and the closure of the port for even a few days
could be disastrous.

Somewhat miraculously, the port remained open on Tuesday, and
the UN World Food Program was able to unload three ships containing
enough food for six million people for one month.

Under Houthi control, NGOs had been able to bring humanitarian
supplies through Hodeidah port. However, the Houthis charged NGOs
steep license fees to dock their ships, so the port has been a major
source of income for the Houthis. Furthermore, the port has been a
lifeline for the Houthis war supplies including, allegedly, weapons
systems provided by Iran.

For those reasons, losing control of the port would be a major
setback for the Houthis, and have a significant negative impact
on their war effort.

In the last few weeks, the United Nations had proposed a peace plan
where UN peacekeeping forces would take control of the port, so that
the fighting between the Saudi coalition and the Houthis could stop.
However, the Houthis rejected that peace proposal, since control of
the port is essential to their war effort.

The Saudi coalition are now demanding that the Houthis must withdraw
completely from Hodeidah and hand over control to the UN.

UN special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, who has been in Yemen's
capital city Sanaa negotiating with the Houthis, hopes to restart
talks on a peace plan next month. Assuming that the Saudi coalition
have control of the vital parts of Hodeidah, the hope is that the
Houthis will yield control of the urban areas, rather than remain
entrenched with a resulting bloodbath in urban fighting.
Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and AFP

Related Articles:

• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders as Yemen war drags on (27-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' (17-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Ghouta, Raqqa, Iraq, Mosul,
Martin Griffiths, Sanaa

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 21-Jun-18 World View -- Europe and North America overwhelmed by growing migration crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Europe and North America overwhelmed by growing migration crisis
  
• New techniques for ethnic cleansing and genocide
  
• The increasing threat of 'unspeakable' violence from MS-13
  

****
**** Europe and North America overwhelmed by growing migration crisis
****


From June 2017: Migrants from Africa arrive in Italy on a rescue ship

The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that nearly
69 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced from their home in
2017. The number of displaced people has set a new world record each
year for the last five years.

Of the 69 million total, 16.2 million were newly displaced in 2017, or
more than 44,000 people per day. The High Commissioner, Filippo
Grandi, said:

<QUOTE>"The global figure has gone up again by a couple of
million. This is because of protracted conflicts and lack of
solutions for those conflicts that continue, continuous pressure
on civilians in countries of conflict that pushed them to leave
their homes and new or aggravating crises, like the Rohingya
crisis."<END QUOTE>

The Rohingya crisis refers to the genocide and ethnic cleansing
occurring Burma (Myanmar), which has driven 905,000 ethnic Rohingyas
from their homes in Rakhine State into refugee camps in Bangladesh.
That's the fifth worst refugee crisis in the world today.

In fourth place is Venezuela, with 1.5 million refugees. The
Socialist government has almost completely destroyed Venezuela's
economy, forcing 1.5 million people from their homes into neighboring
countries. More than 600,000 people are newly displaced in
neighboring Colombia, with an estimated 3,000 people crossing the
border each day in search of basic essentials and new opportunity.

In third place is South Sudan, with 2.1 million refugees, which is the
largest refugee crisis in Africa. More than 4 million people have
been uprooted from their homes since the start of a brutal civil war
in 2013, including 2.1 million people who have been forced to cross
into neighboring countries, the majority of them women and children.

In second place is Afghanistan, with 2.5 million refugees, who have
been forced to leave the country for Iran, Pakistan or Europe.

In first place, the biggest refugee crisis in the world, is Syria,
with 5.6 million refugees, where president Bashar al-Assad uses barrel
bombs laced with chlorine gas specifically targeting women and
children, and also used Sarin gas to kill large numbers of civilians.

The number of displace persons has been a record every year for the
last five years, and this increasing trend line is expected to
continue. CBS News and U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and Mercy Corps and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2004)

****
**** New techniques for ethnic cleansing and genocide
****

A new technique for committing ethnic cleansing and genocide is
becoming increasingly common. The government violently attacks
members of an ethnic or religious group, such as when they're
peacefully protesting. Then when any members of the ethnic group
react with violence to get revenge, then the government starts
referring to millions of people in the ethnic group, including women
and children, as "terrorists," and starts performing ethnic cleansing,
forcing millions of people into neighboring countries. This is
currently happening in Syria and Burma (Myanmar), and in Cameroon to a
lesser extent.

The growing use of new techniques for committing ethnic cleansing and
genocide is part of a global increase in violent wars. In 2004, the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that the
number of wars in the world was decreasing, and that 2003 had seen the
fewest number of armed conflicts in 14 years, except for 1997. But
since 2003, we've seen the number of armed conflicts increase,
creating record numbers of displaced persons and refugees,
overwhelming resources in many countries.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is what happens
during a generational Crisis era, which began in 2003. A country
enters a generational Crisis era when the survivors of the previous
generational crisis war, in this case World War II, all disappear
(retire or die). Examination of hundreds of examples throughout
history shows that this happens 58 years after the end of the previous
crisis war, and 2003 is 58 years after 1945, the end of World War II.

For years I've been writing how nationalism and xenophobia have been
growing in Europe, America, and in countries around the world in a
generational Crisis era. A related phenomenon is the overwhelming
increase in migrants and refugees, which further stokes nationalism
and xenophobia.

The same thing happened in the last generational Crisis era, in the
1930s. In July 1938, 32 nations met for a conference to address the
problem of hundreds of thousands of German and Austria Jews who were
fleeing Naziism, or whom Hitler was expelling. Hitler actually mocked
the conference participants in a speech when he said, "I can only hope
and expect that the other world which has felt such deep sympathy for
these criminals will be generous enough to transform this pity into
practical aid. As far as I am concerned we are ready to place our
luxury ships at the disposal of these countries for the transportation
of these criminals." In the end, Europe, North America and Australia
refused to take on refugees, saying that their population "density"
had reached a point of "saturation."

After the war, the Europeans signed the 1957 Treaty of Rome where,
having suffered the devastation of two world wars and fearing a third,
the European survivors saw as a major cause of those world wars the
same nationalism and xenophobia that's increasingly prevalent today.

There are some countries today that are successfully hosting
large numbers of refugees, according to UNHCR. For the fourth
consecutive year in 2017, Turkey hosted the largest number of refugees
worldwide, with 3.5 million people. It was followed by Pakistan (1.4
million), Uganda (1.4 million), Lebanon (998,900), Iran (979,400),
Germany (970,400), Bangladesh (932,200) and Sudan (906,600).

However, many other countries become overwhelmed by the large number
of refugees, and are taking political action to block the arrival of
refugees and migrants. This has been true in the United States for
years, and it's becoming the policies of an increasing number of
"populist" elections in Europe, in countries such as Italy and
Hungary.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these political
attempts are futile. Even if some temporary solution could be found,
the trend line of increasing migration is going to increase in this
generational Crisis era, and any political solution that "solves" the
problem this year will be overcome by more wars and new waves of
migrants and refugees.

****
**** The increasing threat of 'unspeakable' violence from MS-13
****

Although forced displacement is a global problem, UNHCR is expressing
special alarm at the sharp rise in forced displacement in Central
America.

More than 294,000 asylum seekers and refugees from the North of
Central America were registered globally as of the end of 2017, an
increase of 58 per cent from a year earlier. This is sixteen times
more people than at the end of 2011.

The vast majority of those fleeing El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras, are seeking refugee protection either to the north in
Belize, Mexico and the United States, or (and increasingly) to the
south in Costa Rica and Panama. Many are vulnerable women, or children
either unaccompanied by or who have become separated from their
families.

Of particular concern are MS-13 gangs in Central America traveling to
the United States. A federal task force in Boston announced in
January 2016 the dismantling of several local branches of the MS-13
street gang, including 56 gang members, a third of MS-13's
Massachusetts membership.

Described by federal officials as being guilty of unspeakable violence
and enormous cruelty, the gang targets middle and high schoolers for
initiation, officials said, especially Chelsea, East Boston and
Everett high schools. The initiation requires the student to commit
crimes, and to become a full-fledged member requires the commission of
a significant crime, usually the murder of a rival gang member.

According to a Francesca Fontanini, a Mexico-based UNHCR spokesman,
refugees from Central America come to escape violence:

<QUOTE>"The people who are coming are saying that the level
of violence is brutal – they are basically confined to their own
houses because there is a lack of freedom. It is very dangerous to
go to school, to go to church, to move around. They are living in
very traumatized and violent circumstances."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, if they become refugees in the United States, they're
targeted by the same MS-13 gangs and the same brutal violence that
they had hoped to escape from. UNHCR and Boston Globe (29-Jan-2016) and Boston Globe (29-Jan-2016) and Guardian (London, 22-May) and Institute for Research on Public Policy Policy (Canada)

Related Articles:

• Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU (17-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board overwhelmed by migrants crossing border from US (20-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet (13-May-2017)
  
  
• Thousands of migrants flee to Canada, fearing deportation in the US (04-Aug-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees,
UNHCR, Filippo Grandi, Burma, Myanmar, Venezuela,
South Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Cameroon,
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
Hitler, Treaty of Rome, 1957,
Turkey, Pakistan, Uganda, Lebanon, Iran, Germany, Bangladesh,
MS-13, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, Mexico,
Boston, Chelsea, East Boston, Everett, Francesca Fontanini

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 22-Jun-18 World View -- Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa
  
• Fears grow of Syrian army advance into Quneitra province
  

****
**** Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa
****


March 2017: Syrian troops advancing overnight in Hama (Al-Masdar)

The long-awaited assault by the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on the southwestern province of Daraa appears to have begun
on Thursday. According to Syrian state media, the Syrian army
"carried out concentrated bombardments on dens and fortified positions
of Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist organization and the affiliated groups in
the northern and northeastern countryside of Daraa."

Al-Assad considers all the people living in Daraa to be "terrorists,"
even the women and children. Al-Assad has used an increasingly common
way of committing ethnic cleansing and genocide. After brutal attacks
on peaceful Sunni protesters in 2011, as soon as even one Sunni
activist uses violence to get revenge, al-Assad has declared that
millions of Sunnis are all "terrorists," and he uses that as an excuse
to conduct ethnic cleansing and genocide. In the past, al-Assad
attacked even women and children in Aleppo, Homs and Ghouta with
barrel bombs, chlorine and Sarin gas, and now he's turning his
attention to Daraa. According to reports, the Syrian army has
assembled a large force, including tens of thousands of soldiers and
more than 100 tanks.

Daraa province lies along the border with Jordan. Tens of thousands
of people are fleeing the area, running south into Jordan to escape
the bombing. Jordan is already hosting 650,000 refugees from the
Syrian war, and is already in economic distress.

So far, the Syrian army has not started a ground offensive, but that
could change at any time.

The US State Department quickly denounced the Syrian acction, accusing
them of violating a previous agreement that Daraa province part of a
"de-escalation zone" which is supposed to recognize a ceasefire:

<QUOTE>"The United States remains deeply troubled by reports
of increasing Syrian regime operations in southwest Syria within
the boundaries of the de-escalation zone negotiated between the
United States, Jordan, and the Russian Federation last year and
reaffirmed between Presidents Trump and Putin in Da Nang, Vietnam
in November. Syrian regime military and militia units, according
to our reports, have violated the southwest de-escalation zone and
initiated airstrikes, artillery, and rocket attacks.

The United States continues to warn both the Russian government
and the Assad regime of the serious repercussions of these
violations and demands that Russia restrain pro-regime forces from
further actions within the southwest de-escalation zone. During
their call this weekend, Secretary Pompeo stressed to Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov the critical nature of mutual
adherence to this arrangement and the unacceptable nature of any
unilateral activity by the Assad regime or Russia. The United
States expects all parties to respect the ceasefire, protect
civilian populations, and avoid broadening of the conflict. We
remain committed to maintaining the stability of the southwest
de-escalation zone and to the ceasefire underpinning
it."<END QUOTE>

The US has threatened "serious repercussions" for violation of the
de-escalation zone, without specifying what those repercussions might
be. Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA, Damascus) and Arab News and
US State Dept. and The National (UAE)

****
**** Fears grow of Syrian army advance into Quneitra province
****

Al-Assad has vowed to recapture all of southwest Syria from the
"terrorists," even though it's in a de-escalation zone. The actions
taken so far in Daraa province, near the border with Jordan, have not
evoked a strong response.

There is a great deal of concern, however, that the Syrian army will
advance farther west from Daraa province in Quneitra province.
Quneitra province borders the Israel-controlled Golan Heights, which
is of much greater concern. From there, the Syrian army could attack
targets in Israel, resulting in a larger war.

Israel has already made it clear that it will not tolerate Iranian or
Hezbollah forces near the Golan border, and has previously targeted
Iranian weapons systems and other Iranian targets approaching the
border. Israel's willingness to tolerate Syrian forces near the
border is ambiguous.

The pressure on Israel to respond is further complicated by the fact
that the situation along the border with Gaza appears to be
deteriorating rapidly, with Hamas and Islamic Jihad sending dozens of
rockets and burning kites across the border into Israel.

There are also suggestions in Israeli media that soldiers in Syria's
army are actually Hezbollah terrorists wearing Syrian uniforms.
Whether this is paranoia or actually happening, there is clearly a
perception that it's happening, and that's putting pressure on Israel
to take military action in Daraa, Gaza or both. Al Masdar News (Damascus) and Israel National News and Debka (Israel)

Related Articles

• Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria (19-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-US rant (02-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Israeli kills protesters on Golan Heights (06-Jun-2011)
  
  
• Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights (22-May-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Daraa province,
Homs, Ghouta, Aleppo, Jordan, Quneitra province,
Israel, Golan Heights, Iran, Hezbollah, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe