Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(08-29-2017, 01:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-29-2017, 01:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-29-2017, 12:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-28-2017, 10:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]>   China and India made surprising announcements on Monday that they
>   had agreed to pull back troops to reduce tension on Bhutan's
>   Doklam Plateau.  

(08-29-2017, 08:56 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]>   Surprising to you, maybe, but only because of your irrational
>   paranoia about China.  

Lol!  Yeah, like my "irrational paranoia" about North Korea and
al-Qaeda.  Go figure.

If you think North Korea doesn't have nuclear missiles yet, your irrationality there is in your complacency, not paranoia.  Even the perpetually behind the curve US intelligence services have finally admitted that the tests from a year ago were of missile mountable warheads.

Fine.  North Korea has ten nuclear missiles, while China has hundreds.
And yet, you live in a bubble where your state of denial is so great,
that NK's ten missiles bother you and Kinser, but China's hundreds of
missiles don't.  I guess you think that China has only nice missiles,
while NK has nasty missiles.  Peace in our time.

It's really amazing.  People my age have wondered our whole lives how
Hitler could have so thoroughtly fooled everyone in Britain except
Churchill, and now we know why.  That mystery has finally been solved
for me, as I see it unfold again.  It's truly astonishing.

North Korea has on the order of ten nuclear missiles, China has hundreds, and Russia has over a thousand.  If the numbers were the main thing that mattered, you'd be most worried about Russia.  Yet, you ignore Putin just like people ignored Hitler.

It makes sense to focus on North Korea right now because that's the problem that can be solved - but only for a short time.  If we got North Korea to give up its nukes, that would set an example on proliferation.  Iran wouldn't try to get them, we could start putting pressure in Pakistan and India, and eventually we might even pressure China, France, England, and Russia to give up theirs.

Putin can see that possibility, which is why he is doing everything possible to prevent the US from taking care of the North Korean nuclear problem.  China can probably see it too, but they are actually close enough to be severely threatened by North Korea, so they figure any future steps the US might take can be dealt with later.

The fact that there are bigger threats around in the form of Russia and China does not mean we shouldn't bother to deal with the lesser threats like North Korea.

*** 30-Aug-17 World View -- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
  
• UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions
  
• Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional'
  

****
**** Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
****


Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 of last year in London (Getty)

Britain's opposition Labor party made a dramatic policy U-turn on
Saturday on the terms of Brexit negotiations. The new position leaves
open the possibility that that when Britain formally leaves the
European on March 29, 2019, the terms of the UK-EU relationship will
be essentially unchanged for years, and possibly forever. This could
effectively nullify Brexit, for all practical purposes.

Britain's Tory government, headed by prime minister Theresa May, has
been struggling to define policies for the UK-EU relationship after
March 2019, and has had little success so far. The intention is that
there will be a "transitional period" for two years, during which
further negotiations will take place on the terms of the final
separation.

There are hardliners on both the UK and EU negotiating sides that are
going to make any agreement very difficult. The terms of any
agreement will have to be approved by all 27 remaining EU members, by
the UK government, and possibly by the UK parliament. It seems
unlikely that any agreement whatsoever will be reached on anything, at
least until late in 2018, when the time is so late and the situation
so desperate that the parties will be forced to agree to something.

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary of the shadow government of
Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn, published a proposal on Saturday
that the UK negotiate a transitional deal with the EU that preserves
the UK's continued membership in the EU single market, accepting all
the terms of that membership, including free movement of people
through Europe, including the UK, and accepting the jurisdiction of
the European Court of Justice as having a higher priority than the
UK's own courts.

These are exactly the policies that drove the passage of the Brexit
referendum -- blocking immigrants from reaching Britain, and giving
Britain jurisdiction over its own laws -- so the Labor proposal
effectively negates Brexit, especially if the Labor transitional deal
lasts more than two years.

According to some analysts, this proposal could run into trouble
because it will be violating the terms of rules for exiting the EU
described in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and therefore could be
rejected by the European Court of Justice. The Germany parliament may
also oppose the proposal.

The negotiations this fall are expected to be extremely bitter and
vitriolic on all sides. Guardian (London, 26-Aug) and Telegraph (London) and EuroIntelligence

****
**** UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions
****

The proposal by Labor is very simple, because it says that everything
should be as before, with all the same privileges, rules and
restrictions of the existing relationship.

Theresa May has a much more difficult problem. A proposal that honors
the spirit of Brexit requires that every minute law and regulation
adopted by the EU and the UK over a period of decades be renegotiated.
In fact, the EU and UK sides can't even agree which policies are to be
negotiated first.

The Tories are insisting that the terms of the trade relationship, or
"customs union," between the UK and EU be agreed as quickly as
possible, so that businesses on both sides will be able to plan for
March 2019. The UK says that they can't agree on other things until
they've determined what the trade relationship will be.

The EU negotiators say the opposite. They can't agree on the trade
relationship until the terms of the "divorce" have been settled.
There are three questions that the EU negotiators say have to be
resolved first:

• The highest priority issue would be "citizens' rights." This
  refers to UK citizens living in the EU-27, and EU-27 citizens living
  in the UK. There are 5.4 million of these, and their lives have been
  thrown into chaos by the Brexit referendum, since they have no idea
  whether they'll continue to be living and working as they have been.
  The issues involve things like pensions, social security, work
  benefits, medical care, and so forth. A recent proposal by Theresa
  May has been rejected by the EU as providing insufficient rights for
  EU citizens living in Britain.
  
  
• The next highest priority is the "divorce bill." The EU wants to
  charge Britain about €60 billion in payments already committed to
  farmers, scientists, and a variety of programs. There have been some
  reports of an agreement of an annual €10 billion contribution to
  the EU during the transitional period, with the remaining terms to be
  negotiated.
  
  
• The third divorce issue is the land border between Northern
  Ireland, which is part of Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which
  is an independent country that will remain part of the European Union.
  The EU-27 is requiring that all parts of the "Good Friday Agreement"
  be maintained, which means that there should be free flow of people
  and goods across the border.

The trade issue, when negotiations finally begin, is liable to just as
contentious. Theresa May would like an agreement of a "customs union"
that would allow for "frictionless trade" between the UK and EU, with
minimum rules and custom duties. She would also like for UK to be
able to begin negotiating trade deals with other countries, such as
the US and China.

The problem with that proposal is that it makes a customs union
impossible. The idea behind the EU single market is that anyone can
trade with anyone else in the customs union with no tariffs, but
imports from other countries could be taxed to protect European
agriculture and other products. But if the UK is part of the EU
single market, and the UK can also make its own deals with other
countries, then other countries could then gain tariff-free trade with
the entire EU simply by trans-shipping all goods through the UK.
Business Insider (16-Feb) and UK government Brexit position papers

Related Articles

• European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional'
****

Britain's government two weeks ago published its position paper on the
border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the
Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland), which is an independent
nation, but a member state of the EU. The only land border between
the UK and other EU members is the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.

Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely bloody history, largely
fought between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the
English and Scottish invaders. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
)

During the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was a
great deal of violence in Northern Ireland. It was mostly resolved by
the "Good Friday agreement" in 1998, and part of that agreement is
that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland must be
completely open.

If the UK leaves the EU under Brexit, then the border in Ireland would
be a border between the UK and EU, subject to the usual tariffs and
customs rules.

Theresa May is proposing some kind of "invisible electronic border"
between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but Ireland's EU Commissioner
Phil Hogan says that this is delusional:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that there's a high level of delusion in
> London at the moment about what is required to be done.
>
> But if there is an appetite for a pragmatic and reasonable outcome
> to a free-trade agreement, well then membership of the customs
> union would make a significant contribution to this.
>
> I'm very concerned about the Irish question. Ireland is probably
> the biggest victim of this mess. [UK ministers] still don't
> realize that the other 27 [member states] have to agree to this
> transition period of two or three years or whatever they're going
> to be seeking."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

An Irish Government source confirmed it is prepared to use the
"nuclear option" of vetoing the transition period. UK Brexit policy on Ireland and Independent (Ireland)

Related Articles

• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  
  
• England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
  
  
• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Britain, Brexit,
Theresa May, Labor Party, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn,
Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland,
The Troubles, Gaelics

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John J. Xenakis
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(08-29-2017, 07:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-28-2017, 11:12 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Why Russia now hates the Democrats, the Clintons and Obamas, is not merely because that faction represent "Western Decadence" contra Duginism. Another reason Russia hates them is because they have finally awakened to the Single Clenched Fist and looming resurgence of the East Bloc. We can see this in the vast changes in nuclear and military posture which occurred mid this decade. Now these changes may been too little too late but nonetheless we had seemingly once and for all abandoned, rightfully, the sad and naive notions of "The Peace Dividend" and "The West / US Won the Cold War." No, we were merely deceived by The Shape Shifting Beast. We did not win the Cold War. In any case, The Beast started to get up and dance at the start of this decade. Obama reacted appropriately, and we were situated to continue. NATO would have been bolstered and we would have readopted the Contra Iron Curtain strategy of the Cold War. The SCO would have none of this. They knew our own Western factions aligned with Duginism were the answer. We (the collective "we") blundered into electing them. And now here we are. Blundering our way into being defeated and possibly conquered by East Bloc 2.0.

The fact that we fought Germany in WWII doesn't change the fact that we won WWI.  Similarly, even if we end up fighting Russia again, that doesn't change the fact that we won the Cold War.

If you think the resurgent eastern bloc is a threat, it's hard to see how you can view Obama as doing the right thing when he eliminated the US missile shield presence in Poland that Bush had started on.  Fortunately Trump seems to be planning to put it back.

Warren, this is Alphabet Soup we're talking about here.  I'm surprised he hasn't accused me of being a Russian agent yet.  Why?  Because I went to Russia on a Tourist Visa once and I buy Voskhod Double Edged Razor Blades directly from their St. Petersberg factory and which I use in my evil Weishi Chinese razor (seriously you see like a Van der Hagen or One Touch razor in like Wally World or whatever, they are all just re-branded Weishi).  Or maybe I'm an Italian agent because I almost exclusively buy Porasso Shave soap.

And naturally lets not forget how Daddy himself is a Russian Agent.  You know because he doesn't want a Nuclear war with a Nuclear power but does want to sell American Missile systems to the Poles (which of course puts the Kremlin on edge).

(08-29-2017, 08:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]North Korea has on the order of ten nuclear missiles, China has hundreds, and Russia has over a thousand.  If the numbers were the main thing that mattered, you'd be most worried about Russia.  Yet, you ignore Putin just like people ignored Hitler.

It makes sense to focus on North Korea right now because that's the problem that can be solved - but only for a short time.  If we got North Korea to give up its nukes, that would set an example on proliferation.  Iran wouldn't try to get them, we could start putting pressure in Pakistan and India, and eventually we might even pressure China, France, England, and Russia to give up theirs.

Putin can see that possibility, which is why he is doing everything possible to prevent the US from taking care of the North Korean nuclear problem.  China can probably see it too, but they are actually close enough to be severely threatened by North Korea, so they figure any future steps the US might take can be dealt with later.

The fact that there are bigger threats around in the form of Russia and China does not mean we shouldn't bother to deal with the lesser threats like North Korea.

There are a few problems with this.

1.  When it comes to nuclear strikes numbers don't matter.  Even if we had a Star Wars system that could knock out most of the missiles the solution is to send up one nuke with dozens or even hundreds of dummy missiles.
2.  Vladimir Putin is not Hitler.  Not politically, and not on the international stage.  Chechenya has been part of Russia since before the US even existed.  Same with the Crimea.  Indeed even Belarus and Ukraine could be considered similar to Texas and California breaking off the US.

Now as to what I agree with.  Putin isn't particularly interested in mucking about in Korea.  Firstly it is the PRC's client state, and secondly any military actions would require the Russians to send their forces across the Transsiberian which in many places is still just a single track.  It was and still is a logistical nightmare.  Also Putin doesn't want to push around the Chinese too much.  Russia and China are not friends and haven't been friends for centuries.  The aboration was the friendliness between Mao and Stalin, and even then the diplomatic relations were tepid at best.

Russia and China can pose bigger threats than the DPRK, but unlike the DPRK they are unlikely to actually become hot-war threats.  China relies on selling the US cheap plastic shit to get dollars to buy resources to sell more cheap plastic shit.  It is the basis of their industrial might and China is critically short on oil and other strategic resources.

Russia has not historically and is unlikely to attempt to expand their sphere of influence.  They have difficulty maintaining what they have, furthermore they have a monocultural economy which means that bringing on other oil and gas would cripple their economy.

As for getting the DPRK to give up their nukes--unlikely to happen.  Apart from China no one wants to trade with them and they don't really produce much of anything so they have to have something to hold the world hostage for rice and penicillin.

I would venture to guess Iran already has nukes, the question is do they have a delivery system.  Saudi Arabia likely also has some nukes too, but in limited numbers.  We know Israel does.  So in the Middle East you have a standoff between Jew, Sunni Muslim and Shia Muslim.  Pakistan is only really a threat to India and vise versa.

The only real external military threat to America right now is the DPRK.  China and Russia are simply not interested and everyone else has other enemies that are far closer to home.  This should be expected since our 4T is likely to be entirely internal since the DPRK can be run over in a week even if they do fire of a few missiles without China jumping to their rescue which is economic suicide for the Chinese.  And love them or hate them the Chinese are not crazy.  They are coldly rational just like the Russians.

*** 31-Aug-17 World View -- Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend school

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Anti-government tensions grow in Cameroon's English-speaking regions
  
• Violence grows as Cameroon cracks down on Anglophone activists
  
• Cameroon will use police and soldiers to force children to go to school.
  

****
**** Anti-government tensions grow in Cameroon's English-speaking regions
****


During protests earlier this year, Anglophone protesters used catapults against police in Bamenda, Cameroon (RFI)

Tensions are growing in the Southern Cameroons provinces of Cameroon,
the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of the country. At least
half a dozen schools have been burned down.

The perpetrators are believed to be members of Ambazonia, the armed
wing of the Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons, a secessionist
movement. Ambazonia is the name that the secessionists give to the
Southern Cameroons region.

The Anglophone minority is about 20% of the country's 23 million
inhabitants. Starting late last year, there were protests by teachers
and lawyers of discrimination by the majority Francophone
(French-speaking) government. Anglophone lawyers protested that the
legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws
passed without even being translated into English.

Anglophone teachers went on strike last year, protesting that all
courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of
English was forbidden. Protests by Anglophone lawyers and teachers
were dispersed by Cameroon security forces firing tear gas and live
bullets.

Recently, police discovered a cache of weapons and a bomb-making
factory, resulting in the arrest of seven people. VOA and Bareta News

****
**** Violence grows as Cameroon cracks down on Anglophone activists
****

This year, Anglophone activists began using violence against the
security police. The recent burning down of schools was presumably in
support of the teachers' strike, which is still ongoing after almost a
year.

So-called "Ghost town" protests have brought Cameroon’s Anglophone
regions to a standstill since the beginning of the year.

The Cameroon government has tried a variety of nearly desperate
measures to end the strike.

In January, the government shut down all internet access in the
Southern Cameroons, in order to end the protests. It never made any
sense to me why the politicians thought that this would end the
protests, but politicians are rarely the sharpest knives in the
drawer.

Anyway, people couldn't do only banking or purchases, and businesses
in the region had to shut down. The internet shutdown was a disaster
for Cameroon's economy, which lost around $3.1 million. In April, the
government was forced to restore internet access.

In February, Cameroon arrested three English-speaking protesters,
Felix Agbor Balla, Fontem Aforteka'a Neba and Mancho Bibixy, and
accused them of acts of terrorism, complicity in acts of terrorism,
insurrection, propagation of false news, calling for civil war and
calling for a return to the federal system, with the possibility of
facing the death penalty.. However, they didn't have any actual
evidence of those crimes, and so they were held in jail without trial.

In an act of desperation, Cameroon's president Paul Biya announced
yesterday (Wednesday) that all judicial proceedings against these and
other activists would be ended, though it wasn't clear if or when they
would be set free.

This week, Biya has banned people from watching a popular cable
television channel, SCBC, or the Southern Cameroons Broadcasting
Corporation, claiming that it "terrorizes our people." The channel
broadcasts programs about the history and culture of the Anglophone
region, as well as interviews with exiled lawyers and documentaries
about human rights abuses in Cameroon.

Unfortunately for Biya, the station broadcasts from South Africa, so
he has no way of shutting it down, and South African authorities have
refused to shut it down for him. Cable operators in Cameroon are no
long permitted to broadcast the channel, but people can still watch it
over the internet (particularly now that internet access has been
restored).

People can be arrested for watching the channel, and some have already
been detained for having videos and text messages on their phones
relating to the Anglophone protests. Journal du Cameroun and Amnesty International and Reuters and Journal du Cameroun

****
**** Cameroon will use police and soldiers to force children to go to school.
****

The government has deployed an additional 400 police to the Anglophone
regions, to join the 959 already deployed. The job will be to
safeguard the start of the school term from the "persistent threat of
activists."

According to Ayuk Tabe, who is considered by some as the de facto
president of the Anglophone regions, "I don't know any child in this
world who'll go to school because he or she has been dragged by a
policeman or army officer."

If you get the feeling that Cameroon's government is run by idiots, I
have the same feeling. Instead of sending in the army to force
children to go to school, another alternative might be to hire
English-speaking teachers to teach things like geography and math in
English rather than French, and also to hire some English-speaking
judges who could run some courts in English. Steps like that would
likely help more than shutting down the internet.

Biya's clownish actions have been extremely destructive to Cameroon
and to its people and economy, but they seem to be typical of what
we've come to expect of African leaders. Paul Biya came to power in
1982 and, as usual in African countries, Biya has turned into a
dictator, using abusive measures against anyone who even criticizes
him, anything to keep himself and his cronies in control.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we've seen this time
after time, in Syria, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Burundi, Thailand,
Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Eritrea, and other
countries, where leaders in generational Awakening and Unraveling eras
use arbitrary jailings, violence and atrocities to keep the opposition
ethnic group out of power. Over a period of years, the violence
worsens until it turns into a full-scale generational crisis civil war
when the next generational crisis era arrives. Radio France Internationale and AFP

Related Articles

• Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest (23-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Cameroon's president finally caves in, restores internet to English speakers (21-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon shuts down internet for English-speakers protesting French-speakers (15-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons,
Anglophones, Francophones, Ghost Town, Paul Biya, Ayuk Tabe,
Ambazonia, Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons
Felix Agbor Balla, Fontem Aforteka'a Neba, Mancho Bibixy,
SCBC, Southern Cameroons Broadcasting Corporation, South Africa

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 1-Sep-17 World View -- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea
  
• India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China
  

****
**** Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea
****


India's Narendra Modi with Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in Hanoi (Reuters)

Vietnam on Thursday protested China's military drills in waters off
the month of Vietnam's Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea.

In reply to reporters’ queries about the move of China, a Foreign
Ministry spokesman said that all activities of foreign countries in
the waters belonging to Vietnam’s sovereign right and jurisdiction
should comply with Vietnam’s legal regulations and international law,
especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It's doubtful that China will honor any international law. China
repeatedly violates other countries' sovereign territories and
threatens to use its massive military to kill anyone who doesn't do as
they demand.

In July, Vietnam again protested China's military drills violating
Vietnam's sovereignty, and as usual they were ignored.

In June, China demanded that Spanish company Repsol, under contract
with Vietnam, stop drilling for oil and gas in a block that clearly
belongs to Vietnam under international law. Vietnam refused. A month
later, China threatened to use military force against Vietnamese
targets, and Vietnam was forced to step back. Even worse, Vietnam may
now be forced to pay Repsol hundreds of millions of dollars in
damages.

Despite this setback, what's becoming clear is that little Vietnam is
becoming the only country around the South China Sea willing to stand
up at all to gargantuan China.

The Philippines used to stand up to China, but under president Rodrigo
R. Duterte, the country has simply given up, with the attitude that
China is going to win anyway, so why fight? Malaysia, Indonesia and
Singapore, which previously had expressed some opposition to China's
belligerence, have also given up.

China even gloated about this three weeks ago in a China Daily
editorial, following the meeting of ASEAN (Association of Southeast
Asian Nations). According to the article:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It seems, however, that Vietnam almost put a spanner
> in the works by attempting to push its own agenda during the
> meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.
>
> According to media reports, Hanoi struck a less harmonious note by
> hypocritically trying to insert tough language criticizing China's
> island building in the South China Sea, something Vietnam did
> first, resulting in a delay to the issuing of their joint
> statement on Saturday.
>
> But with none of the other ASEAN members being like-minded,
> Vietnam's proposed phrases were not included in the communiqué
> released on Sunday."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China's island building in the South China Sea is a clear violation of
international law, as decided in July 2016, when a Tribunal at the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague eviscerated
all of China's claims to the South China Sea. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
)

China is an international criminal that has repeatedly lied about its
claims in the South China Sea. And yet, they won a victory in ASEAN
removing any mention of China's criminal activities from the final
statement. Even the Philippines, which won the Tribunal ruling last
year in July, has almost completely given in to China.

It seems that only Vietnam, among the South China Sea nations, is
still willing to stand up to China. Vietnam Plus and Reuters and Vietnam Plus (23-Aug) and CNN (14-Aug) and China Daily (7-Aug)

****
**** India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China
****

Of course, Vietnam is not completely alone in confronting China.
Japan is very confrontational with China, and has discussed allying
with Vietnam against China.

The United States conducts Freedom of Navigation operations in the
South China Sea, sailing intelligence-gathering ships near China's
illegal man-made islands, infuriating Chinese officials. The US is
also confronting China in Central Asia. As we reported in last week's
analysis of Donald Trump's speech on Afghanistan,
the US is confronting Pakistan in Afghanistan, and is
also maintaining its two air bases, in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport, as forward bases in any future war with China.
India and the US recently signed a logistical support agreement.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's most
interesting is that the US, India and Vietnam, along with Japan,
appear to be forming a military alliance to encircle and confront
China. India has good reason to ally with Vietnam in confronting
China. They share concerns about China's control of the South China
Sea, and China's access to the Indian Ocean.

India is already providing Vietnam with a $100 million line of credit,
and has sold Vietnam four offshore patrol vessels that are likely to
be used against China in the South China Sea. India is helping
Vietnam to build capacity for repair and maintenance of its defense
platforms, and the armed forces of the two states have started
cooperation in areas like information technology and the
English-language training of Vietnamese Army personnel. India has
also accepted Vietnam's invitation to drill for oil in the same region
that Repsol abandoned.

The most intriguing issue has to do with the possible sale by India of
sophisticated BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile systems to Vietnam.
Such a sale would dramatically change the power balance in the South
China Sea. Vietnam has been asking India since 2011 to purchase the
BrahMos systems, but India has refused, fearing to anger China.

In 2016, India's prime minister Narendra Modi made it clear that it
was no longer as hesitant. The Modi government last year directed
BrahMos Aerospace, which produces the missiles, to expedite this sale
to Vietnam. Two weeks ago, the government of Vietnam appeared to
confirm that it had acquired the missiles from India. However,
sources at India's Defense Ministry denied selling the missiles to
Vietnam. After that, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry gave an ambiguous
statement that neither confirmed nor denied the sale.

What we now know that we didn't know then is that India and China were
having back-channel negotiations to back down from the standoff on
Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. In public, Chinese media were making
vitriolic and offensive threats and accusations at India, saying that
China's military would wipe out India's military unless India
withdrew, and also saying that no negotiations were possible unless
India unilaterally withdraw. That all turned out to be China's usual
hot air, because the negotiations were already in progress, and resulted in a mutual pullback.

So India's denial of the BrahMos sale to Vietnam came at a time when
those negotiations were going on, and we still don't yet know whether
India denied the sale because they had completed the same but didn't
want to upset the negotiations, or because they really hadn't sold the
missiles. Asia Times and The Diplomat (22-Aug) and New Delhi TV (23-Aug)

Related Articles

• China and India pull back from Doklam, while North Korea sharply escalates missile crisis (29-Aug-2017)
  
  
• UK to send warships to South China Sea, as China's neighbors militarize (28-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Vietnam buys cruise missiles from Russia to threaten China (02-May-2015)
  
  
• Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea (26-Mar-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Gulf of Tonkin,
China, South China Sea, Repsol, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile system, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau

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John J. Xenakis
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Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism.

John X please reply to the preceding paragraph.

(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: [ -> ]Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism.

John X please reply to the preceding paragraph.

Reply: You're a moron.

(09-01-2017, 08:45 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism.

John X please reply to the preceding paragraph.

Reply: You're a moron.

Please make a serious reply, John X. The boomers obvious incompetence in determining US policy is apparent to just about all non-boomers. The Boomer convictions that the worst mistakes of the Missionary leaders in the last crisis were not mistakes; notably imposing unconditional surrender as the war aim in January 1943, which prolonged WW2 by 2 years and destroyed any chance of keeping Stalin out of Europe and Asia. As well as the boomer insistence in staying in the helm simply to prevent new ideas from implementing policy is testament to the boomers pure selfishness and embrace of globalistic decadence.

Please make a serious reply to this post and the Last post.

Also you boomers criticize Russia and China for human rights abuses yet at the same time the boomers use massive amounts of coercion to enforce human-rights-ism in western societies. I ponder a question to you; if human rights as well as free-trade as interpreted by boomers is the continuation of our deepest traditions in the west: then why do boomers need to use so much coercion and control in order to enforce this ideology? Could it be that these ideals are alien to not only western tradition but contrary to human nature itself? I think so.

(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism.

John X please reply to the preceding paragraph.

While I don't really disagree regarding globalism, I do have to point out that both the dominant generational types - Civics and Idealists - tend to be at the top for more than their fair share of the time.  Given it's mostly the elder Boomers who have dominated the Presidency so far, you might end up with another decade or two of us if younger Boomers also get a turn.

The younger GIs did a better job than the older ones; maybe the younger Boomers will do a better job than the older ones too.

*** 2-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election
  
• John Kerry and other election observers come under harsh criticism
  

****
**** Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election
****


Supporters of Raila Odinga celebrate the court ruling (CNN)

Kenya's Supreme Court on Friday ruled that the August 8 re-election of
President Uhuru Kenyatta was invalid, and that a new election must be
held within 60 days. The court found that Kenyatta "was not validly
elected," rendering the result "invalid, null and void." The ruling
was a victory for opposition leader Raila Odinga, who had brought the
case, claiming that the election had been rigged.

The ruling was a complete shock to everyone, including both Kenyatta
supporters and opposition, but no one had expected the court to rule
against Kenyatta. Corruption is so pervasive in African countries,
including Kenya, that normally judges will rule in whatever way the
president pays them to rule, and everyone expected Kenya's Supreme
Court judges to do the same in this case, irrespective of the
evidence.

In fact, the ruling is being called "historic," because it's the first
time that a legal challenge to a presidential election has ever been
successful in the entire history of Africa. Odinga said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s a very historic day for the people of Kenya and
> by extension the people of Africa. For the first time in history
> of African democratization a ruling has been made by a court
> nullifying irregular elections for the president."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Kenyatta said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I personally disagree with the ruling that has been
> made today but I respect it. Millions of Kenyans made their
> choice but six people [the judges] have decided that they will go
> against the will of the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Supporters of Odinga were ebullient, and celebrated in the streets for
hours. Odinga himself added:

> [indent]<QUOTE>“It is now clear that the entire edifice of the
> (election board) is rotten. Clear evidence shows that the
> commission was taken over by criminals ... they must face criminal
> prosecution. ... We are ready but cannot repeat the election with
> this commission."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's thought that the reasons for the court's ruling included the
following:

• The election computer network was a mess. Eight days before
  the election, Chris Msando, who was in charge of IT systems for
  Kenya's electoral commission, went missing eight days before the
  election. His naked body was found three days later with his left
  hand and fingers broken, a swollen injury on his head, and evidence of
  strangulation. Nobody has been arrested for Msando's murder, but many
  people suspect that his murder was part of rigging the election.
  Odinga claimed that the election computer network servers had been
  hacked.
  
  
• The paper tally sheets were a mess. Each district was supposed to
  provide paper tally sheets to support the vote count in that district,
  as it had been transmitted over the election computer network.
  However, at least 20-25% of the tally sheets had disappeared, or did
  not have the appropriate watermark, suggesting that they had been
  fabricated.
  
  
• Odinga claimed that his poll watchers had found different vote
  tallies in some district than had been reported to the electoral
  commission.
  
  
• Odinga had challenged the election results in 2007, and his
  concerns were ignored. This triggered a violent inter-tribal
  bloodbath, between Odinga's Luo tribe and his opponent's Kikuyu tribe,
  killing more than 1,300 people and displacing 600,000, and punctuated
  by numerous atrocities. There has been a lot of nervousness in Kenya
  about a possible repeat of that violence, and it's possible that the
  judges were afraid that if they simply threw out Odinga's case, then
  it would trigger the violence again.

The court will provide detailed reasoning for its decision within 21
days.

The court ruled that a new election must be held within 60 days.
However, an election is enormously expensive, and Kenya is deeply in
debt. Furthermore, after the last election fiasco, it will be hard to
convince people that the next election will be fair. Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and Reuters

Related Articles

• Kenya fears violence as opposition refuses to accept presidential election results (14-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Torture and murder of election official raise fears of violence in Kenya (01-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war (07-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Kenya protests take an increasingly dangerous turn (08-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** John Kerry and other election observers come under harsh criticism
****

After the August 8 election, and Uhuru Kenyatta had been declared a
provisional winner, his opponent Raila Odinga began claiming that the
election had been rigged.

At that point, John Kerry, who had been former president Barack
Obama's Secretary of State, and who had led the Jimmy Carter Center's
election observer mission in Kenya, said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Kenya has made a remarkable statement to Africa and
> the world about its democracy and the character of that
> democracy. Don’t let anybody besmirch that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Well, now that Kenya's Supreme Court has besmirched it, Kerry and
other election day observers are coming under attack in Kenya.
They're being accused of blindly endorsing the election to produce the
outcome desired by the government, and of completely ignoring the
concerns raised by the opposition.

Muthoni Wanyeki, who served as Amnesty International’s East Africa
Regional Director, supports these accusations against "the election
observer industry," and goes further:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I feel a real anger about the way they treat us. I’ve
> had diplomats say to my face that, speaking in the light of
> history, this election was an improvement [from past
> elections]. I’m sorry we do not live in history, we live in the
> here and now and we have a right to free and fair elections.
> Their attitude in condescending, neocolonial and by saying that
> things are improving, they’re treating us like small
> children. Hopefully this ruling is like egg on their
> face."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

John Kerry on Friday said then that while there were "little
aberrations here and there," the election was not rigged. France 24 and CNN
and Foreign Policy

Related Articles

• Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
  
  
• Ethnic revenge massacre in Kenya kills 41 (22-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions (24-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Herders invade ranches in Kenya, ambush and kill British ranch owner (07-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga,
Chris Msando, John Kerry, Muthoni Wanyeki

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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(09-01-2017, 09:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism.

John X please reply to the preceding paragraph.

While I don't really disagree regarding globalism, I do have to point out that both the dominant generational types - Civics and Idealists - tend to be at the top for more than their fair share of the time.  Given it's mostly the elder Boomers who have dominated the Presidency so far, you might end up with another decade or two of us if younger Boomers also get a turn.

The younger GIs did a better job than the older ones; maybe the younger Boomers will do a better job than the older ones too.

I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.  After Daddy the WH is going to shift to an Xers unless the enemy manages to martyr him.  But if they do the civil war they're trying to make will come and it will blow up in their faces.

The generational problem in most western countries is the lack of sanity of the baby boomers. Whenever anyone criticizes their precious neoliberalism and globalism boomers become tyrannical.

*** 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries
  
• Kenya's president Kenyatta lashes out as Supreme Court judges as 'crooks'
  
• Burmese Buddhist attacks on Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar becoming full-scale genocide
  

****
**** Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries
****


A flooded street in Karachi on Friday (EPA)

Some 45 million people in a region stretching from Nepal and
Bangladesh through India to Pakistan are dealing with "catastrophic"
floods from two months of continuous torrential rain in the worst
monsoon season in years.

Worldwide media have been heavily covering the floods in Texas from
hurricane Harvey, but the floods in South Asia have been far more
disastrous.

Wide-scale flooding stretching across the Himalayan foothills has
caused landslides and washed away tens of thousands of homes and vast
swathes of farmland. At least 1,400 people have been killed.
Elsewhere, hundreds of thousands of homes have been damaged or
destroyed, and many people are facing starvation. In Bangladesh,
1,300 cases of water-borne diseases have been reported. In Mumbai, a
multi-story residential building collapse claimed 33 lives, left 15
injured and dozens more buried in the rubble. In Karachi, at least 23
people have died, mostly due to electrocution. New Daily (Australia) and Reuters

Related: Pakistan appeals for international help with floods (08-Aug-2010)

****
**** Kenya's president Kenyatta lashes out as Supreme Court judges as 'crooks'
****

As we described yesterday,
Kenya's
president Uhuru Kenyatta was initially restrained on Friday, after
Kenya's Supreme Court declared that his presidential election victory
was "invalid, null and void" because of electoral committee
irregularities. Kenyatta said that he respected the court's decision,
and called for peace. But that didn't last long, as he began calling
the judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and
promising to "fix it" after he was reelected.

Isaac Okero, the president of the Law Society of Kenya, on Saturday
condemned Kenyatta's remarks:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Ominously declaring that they (judges) should wait
> for him (President Kenyatta) after he is successful in the coming
> fresh election is unfortunate and wholly inappropriate remark from
> the Head of State who under the constitution is a symbol of
> national unity, enjoys immunity from criminal and civil
> proceedings and must promote and enhance the unity of the
> nation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's not clear what Kenyatta meant when he said that he would "fix"
the problem with the court once he's elected, but if I were one of the
judges, I would be looking for a way to get out of the country
quickly. The Nation (Kenya)

Related: Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017)

****
**** Burmese Buddhist attacks on Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar becoming full-scale genocide
****

Attacks by Burmese Buddhists, led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu,
since 2011 as we've been reporting,
are now clearly crossing the line into full-scale
genocide.

Buddhists have been slaughtering Rohingyas, raping women and burning
down villages in a policy to exterminate them. Bangladesh, which
already hosts 400,000 Rohingya refugees, earlier refused to allow any
more to enter, but they've reversed that policy. In the last few
days, 60,000 more Rohingyas have crossed the Naf River into Bangladesh
to flee the Buddhist violence, and more are crossing every day.
However, even that path is dangerous, as Burma's army on foot and in
helicopters are shooting dead any Rohingyas they seen fleeing to
Bangladesh, leaving numerous dead bodies in the river.

When the Rohingyas do reach the Bangladesh side, they can turn around
and see their villages being burnt to the ground, and other Rohingyas
being shot to death.

This is rapidly turning into a full-scale genocide, similar to last
century's Nazi Holocaust of the Jews, Stalin's Holodomor in Ukraine,
and Pol Pot's Killing Fields in Cambodia. The only difference between
these is the methods used to implement the "holocaust." BBC

Related: Violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Myanmar/Burma escalates dramatically (28-Aug-2017)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan,
Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Isaac Okero, Law Society of Kenya,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Naf River

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(09-02-2017, 08:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]****
**** Burmese Buddhist attacks on Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar becoming full-scale genocide
****

Attacks by Burmese Buddhists, led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu,
since 2011 as we've been reporting,
are now clearly crossing the line into full-scale
genocide.

Buddhists have been slaughtering Rohingyas, raping women and burning
down villages in a policy to exterminate them.  Bangladesh, which
already hosts 400,000 Rohingya refugees, earlier refused to allow any
more to enter, but they've reversed that policy.  In the last few
days, 60,000 more Rohingyas have crossed the Naf River into Bangladesh
to flee the Buddhist violence, and more are crossing every day.
However, even that path is dangerous, as Burma's army on foot and in
helicopters are shooting dead any Rohingyas they seen fleeing to
Bangladesh, leaving numerous dead bodies in the river.

When the Rohingyas do reach the Bangladesh side, they can turn around
and see their villages being burnt to the ground, and other Rohingyas
being shot to death.

This is rapidly turning into a full-scale genocide, similar to last
century's Nazi Holocaust of the Jews, Stalin's Holodomor in Ukraine,
and Pol Pot's Killing Fields in Cambodia.  The only difference between
these is the methods used to implement the "holocaust."  BBC

Related: Violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Myanmar/Burma escalates dramatically (28-Aug-2017)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan,
Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Isaac Okero, Law Society of Kenya,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Naf River

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

 Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding a region of the Islamic scourge. The Muslims by embracing barbarism deserved what they got.

(09-03-2017, 01:15 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: [ -> ]> Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding
> a region of the Islamic scourge. The Muslims by embracing
> barbarism deserved what they got.

No, it's the Buddhists and Burmese who are embracing barbarism --
just like Pol Pot's Buddhists, and Stalin's and Hitler's
Christians.

(09-03-2017, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-03-2017, 01:15 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]>   Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding
>   a region of the Islamic scourge. The Muslims by embracing
>   barbarism deserved what they got.  

No, it's the Buddhists and Burmese who are embracing barbarism --
just like Pol Pot's Buddhists, and Stalin's and Hitler's
Christians.

Your own source says that the muslims are killing buddhists, too, including a bunch of policemen, though I notice you omitted that part from your post.  To me this sounds like an ethnic war and the muslims just happened to be on the losing side.  In some conflicts there are no good guys.

(09-03-2017, 08:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]> Your own source says that the muslims are killing buddhists, too,
> including a bunch of policemen, though I notice you omitted that
> part from your post. To me this sounds like an ethnic war and the
> muslims just happened to be on the losing side. In some conflicts
> there are no good guys.

So if someone in Somerville decided to kill a cop or two, then the
government would be justified to kill you, rape your wife, kill your
family, rape your neighbors' wives, kill their families, and then burn
down your home and the entire neighborhood. Is that what you're
saying?

The rapes and slaughter of Rohingyas has been going on for years.
Last year, Rohingya activists killed some border guards, and it
happened again a couple of weeks ago. But that doesn't justify the
massive scorched earth slaughter that's going on now. Maybe it will
turn into an ethnic war, but it hasn't so far, and I don't believe
that it will unless some other nation (Bangladesh) intervenes
militarily.

*** 4-Sep-17 World View -- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
  
• World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable'
  
• Will the United States take some military action against North Korea?
  

****
**** Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
****


The giggling North Korean news reader Ri Chun-Hee announces the nuclear test

North Korea claimed on Sunday to have successfully tested a hydrogen
bomb, the country's sixth nuclear test. The detonation produced 10
times more power than the fifth nuclear test a year ago, based on
earthquake monitoring measurements.

According to Kune Y. Suh, a nuclear engineering professor at Seoul
National University in South Korea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"That scale is to the level where anyone can say (it
> is) a hydrogen bomb test. North Korea has effectively established
> itself as a nuclear state. This is not just a game changer, it’s a
> game over."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

North Korea claimed in state media that they have the capability to
produce as many hydrogen bombs as they want, and that they have the
ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) technology to reach almost
any part of mainland United States.

However, many experts point out that North Korea has not yet proven
that it can weigh down a ballistic missile with a nuclear weapon, and
still have the power to reach mainland United States. But even if
they don't yet have that capability, the extremely rapid development
of their nuclear and ballistic missile technology indicates that they
will have that capability soon. Tribune Media (India) and 38 North (S. Korea) and
KCNA (N. Korea)

****
**** World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable'
****

Many world leaders gave laughable expressions of outrage that
we've heard dozens of times before, repeatedly over many years.

South Korea's president Moon Jae-in said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea has made an absurd tactical mistake, by
> committing a series of provocations such as launching ICBM
> missiles, and conducting a nuclear test. This has heightened
> tensions on the peninsula and is threatening world peace. It will
> isolate them further."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe said that the test
was totally unacceptable:

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially said, "The North's
nuclear test, if it turns out to be true, could never be tolerated."
Later, his office issued a statement saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In addition, given the fact that North Korea has
> belligerently conducted ballistic missile launches repeatedly this
> year, the UN Security Council has strongly condemned these
> actions. Under such circumstances, this nuclear test, which North
> Korea conducted today despite these calls, is totally
> unacceptable.
>
> Taking into consideration that North Korea has enhanced its
> capabilities through its six nuclear tests, including the one
> today, as well as more than ten launches of ballistic missiles
> conducted this year, which could serve as a means to deliver
> weapons of mass destruction, including the two ICBM-class
> ballistic missile launches in July and the ballistic missile
> launch in August that flew over the Japanese territories, North
> Korea’s nuclear and missile development has entered a new level of
> threat - more grave and imminent - against Japan’s national
> security and seriously undermines the peace and security of the
> region as well as the international community."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The nuclear test was conducted near China's border, and the Chinese
have announced that they are test some border towns for nuclear
fallout.

Even worse, the test appears to have timed specifically to embarrass
China's president Xi Jinping. Xi is hosting the opening of a major
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) conference, and
North Korea's test came hours before Xi was scheduled to give his
welcoming address.

China's Foreign Ministry said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>[North Korea] disregarded universal opposition of the
> international community by conducting the test. We strongly urge
> North Korea side to face up to the firm will of the international
> community on the denuclearization of the peninsula, abide by
> relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, stop taking wrong
> actions that exacerbate the situation and are not in its own
> interest, and return to the track of resolving the issue through
> dialogue."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

All of the above statements are just hot air, and totally
meaningless.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to augment his equally
meaningless statements with a threat of sanctions:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am going to draft a sanctions package to send to
> the president for his strong consideration that anybody that wants
> to do trade or business with them would be prevented from doing
> trade or business with us. People need to cut off North Korea
> economically. This is unacceptable behavior."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Once again, this is completely laughable. North Korea has ignored
sanctions for decades, and will continue to do so. Sanctions,
negotiations, bilateral talks, six-party talks, have all been tried
and have all failed, and they will again.

President Donald Trump tweeted:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States is considering, in addition to
> other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business
> with North Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is presumably targeted at China, but it's a completely empty
threat. At most there might be some tiny symbolic sanctions directed
at some of China's banks. If any real sanction is attempted, China
will announce counter-sanctions. Either way, North Korea won't be
affected. CNN and Japan's government and CNN Money

****
**** Will the United States take some military action against North Korea?
****


Pyongyang residents cheer the televised announcement (Reuters)

Some people are suggesting that if North Korea becomes a nuclear
power, it's OK. After all, China and Russia are nuclear powers, so
why not North Korea? Let them have their nuclear ICBMs that can reach
any part of the US mainland, and then everything will settle down,
according to these experts.

The problem with that reasoning is that the testing would never stop.
North Korea would continue developing bigger and more powerful
missiles and nuclear weapons, launching one nuclear ballistic missile
after another, presumably resulting in a nuclear explosion in the
Pacific Ocean. North Korea's child dictator is obviously having too
much fun to want to "settle down" after one nuclear weapon is
successful.

President Trump has said, "North Korea best not make any more threats
to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the
world has never seen." This is being viewed by many observers as
having defined a "red line," similar to Obama's "red line" threat over
Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. Trump followed through on
Obama's threat after Obama didn't, and now everyone is watching to see
whether Trump will back down the way Obama did.

A month ago, Senator Lindsey Graham said that he had spoken with
Donald Trump, and said that it is inevitable that war is coming with North Korea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I’m saying it’s inevitable unless North Korea changes
> because you’re making our president pick between regional
> stability and homeland security.
>
> If there’s going to be a war to stop him [Kim], it will be over
> there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there.
> They’re not going to die here. And he [Trump] has told me that to
> my face."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Saturday, hours before the nuclear test took place, Graham
said the following in a BBC interview:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am 100% certain that if Kim Jong-un continues to
> develop missile technology that can hit America, if diplomacy
> fails to stop him, there will be an attack by the United States
> against his weapons systems. I'm assuming the worst. I'm
> assuming that if we drop one bomb, he fires at South Korea, and
> maybe Japan. Let me tell you have the war ends. It ends with his
> utter destruction. Thousands of people could be killed or maimed.
> There's a lot at stake here. And let me ask you - why would the
> world, given his track record, the North Korean leader, allow him
> to get a hydrogen bomb with a missile to deliver it anywhere in
> the world? Why would we do that?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Sunday, Defense Secretary James Mattis met with Donald Trump, Mike
Pence and top national security advisers, and promised "a massive
military response" to any threat from North Korea against the United
States or its allies, including Japan or Guam.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries versus India, Russia, Iran and the
West. It's impossible to predict the scenario that will lead to this world war,
but right now it looks
like the most likely scenarios involved North Korea. BBC and CNN and RFE/RL

Related Articles

• China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea (09-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Rex Tillerson warns China is risking 'open conflict' with the United States (03-Aug-2017)
  
  
• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  
  
• America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems (14-Feb-2017)
  
  
• South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea (12-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
Ri Chun-Hee, Kune Y. Suh, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping,
Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, James Mattis,
Rex Tillerson

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John J. Xenakis
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