Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

** 26-Oct-2021 World View: The Official New Testament

Navigator Wrote:> This is getting at the fact that the New Testament didn't exist in
> its current form until HUNDREDS of years after the
> deaths/departures of the Apostles.

> It is my belief that this is not only where simple truths were
> lost, like Heavenly Father and Jesus Christ were separate
> individuals, but also the time period where the philosophies of
> the time were introduced into Christian worship. These things
> moved Christianity away from what Christ had taught and what he
> had established.

> Chief among these contemporary non-Christian philosophies were
> Gnosticism and Platonism.

The only comment I would add to this is that the fundamentalist
Christians that I have known, especially in college, would say that
whatever changes were made to the Apostolic letters, whatever letters
were found or lost, whatever led Bishop Athanasius to declare in 367
what were the all and only books of the official New Testament --
whatever went into all those decisions was guided by God at every step
of the way, and so every word in the official New Testament (and the
entire Bible) is the literal inspired word of God.

** 26-Oct-2021 World View: Generational Theory and Fatalism on personal and generational levels

tim Wrote:> You shall not bow down to them or worship them; for I, the Lord
> your God, am a jealous God, punishing the children for the sin
> of the parents to the third and fourth generation of those who
> hate me, 6 but showing love to a thousand generations of those
> who love me and keep my commandments.

> Exodus 20:5

> John,

> What are your thoughts? The Fourth Turning was spoke of long
> before Strauss and Howe created their theory.

When I write about generational theory, I usually talk about crisis
wars or crisis eras or the 58-year rule, and so forth.

However, there are core concepts in generational theory that are
very deep, and were well understood in Biblical times.

• Generational theory is extremely fatalistic, on the
  generational level, and even on the personal level.
  
  
• Catastrophes must happen at regular intervals.
  
  
• One reason they occur is that generations forget, and "Those who
  cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!"
  
  
• Another reason is that the population grows exponentially faster
  than the amount of food and other resources, so a war of extermination
  must occur at regular intervals.
  
  
• Moses must have understood generational concepts when he foresaw
  that he would lead his people out of Egypt in the Exodus.
  
  
• Later, Solomon had a profound grasp of generational theory,
  probably strongly influenced by his knowledge of the Exodus. As he
  writes in Ecclesiastes: "1:9 The thing that hath been, it is that
  which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:
  and there is no new thing under the sun. 1:10 Is there any thing
  whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old
  time, which was before us. 1:11 There is no remembrance of former
  things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to
  come with those that shall come after."
  
  
• I just have to repeat, the three verses just quoted are
  exceptionally deep and profound, and form part of the core
  of generational theory.
  
  
• Jeremiah must have been deeply affected by the words of Solomon,
  and he could see in real time the generational changes that would lead
  to disaster, which allowed him to predict with certainty the
  destruction of Jerusalem.
  
  
• Next, we move to fatalism on the personal level.
  
  
• The most obvious Biblical example is that Jesus knew that he would
  be betrayed, and that he would have to die. I can only speculate how
  this came about. I assume that as a young boy he was familiar with
  the Old Testament and the teachings of Moses, Solomon, Jeremiah, and
  others. He might well have foreseen the destruction of Jerusalem in
  the same way that Jeremiah did. But while Jeremiah was punished by
  being thrown into a pit, Jesus caused a split in the population
  between his followers (the Jews) and his enemies (the Romans). I
  won't attempt to carry this analysis out any further, but somehow
  Jesus foresaw not on the big picture of what was happening (the
  destruction of the temple in Jerusalem) and his own role in it.
  
  
• Personally, of course I knew nothing about generational theory
  when I was young. But I look back at what I studied and read in high
  school, college and later, and I see them all as being pieces in a
  jigsaw puzzle of my life that led me to generational theory. I
  believe that Generational Dynamics was my destiny, in the fatalistic
  sense. And it hasn't ended well for me, just as understanding
  generational theory didn't end well for Jeremiah, Jesus or Winston
  Churchill.
  
  
• What all of us have in common is that what we believe and how we
  behave for our entire lives depends on our childhood. To take one
  obvious example, why does one person become a Christian, another
  become a Jew, another become a Muslim, another a Hindu? Obviously it
  depends on their childhood. But I go a lot farther, and claim that
  many behaviors and attitudes from out childhood influence us, both
  positively and negatively, for our entire lives.
  
  
• I'll give one more example. When Joe Biden was a child, he grew
  up in the Democrat party culture that was still lynching young blacks
  via the KKK, and where Democrats were still bitterly angry that they
  had failed to destroy the Union in the Civil War. The Democrats,
  especially Biden's mentor Robert Byrd, were also bitterly opposed to
  the Republicans' Civil Rights law of 1964, and when that passed it was
  like losing the Civil War to the Republicans all over again.
  
  
• The Democrats' slogan when Biden was a child was "The South
  Shall Rise Again!", meaning that there would be a new Civil
  War, and the Democrats would win this one and reinstate slavery.
  
  
• Today, Biden has the chance to fulfill his childhood dream. In
  one policy area after another -- the border, Afghanistan, street
  crime, Covid, and so forth -- every policy weakens or destroys
  something in the United States. Not a single one strengthens the
  United States. Biden knows that he's running out of time since the
  2022 elections are coming, so he's rushing to destroy as much of the
  country as he can, while he can. Let's go, Brandon!

One more thing: I said that understanding generational theory does not
end well. King Solomon said the same thing in Ecclesiastes: "For in
much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth
sorrow."

I hope that answers your question. Navigator asked me a similar
question in March of last year, and I responded with a video of Judy
Collins and the Rainbow Connection, with particular attention to the
last verse:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrakVGeTi14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrakVGeTi14

Quote:Have you been half asleep and have you heard voices?
I've heard them calling my name.
Is this the sweet sound that calls the young sailors?
The voice might be one and the same.
I've heard it too many times to ignore it.
It's something that I'm s'posed to be.
Somewhere we'll find it, the Rainbow Connection,
The lovers, the dreamers and me.

If you do nothing else tonight, just sit back and listen to the
beautiful Judy Collins singing The Rainbow Connection, and think about
what you're s'posed to be.

(Above was updated to include another quote from Ecclesiastes.)

(10-18-2021, 01:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]** 18-Oct-2021 World View: At MIT, woke Twitter mob clashes with academic values

This controversy at MIT is of interest to me because I used to be an
MIT student, and because I live on the edge of the MIT campus.  I
became aware of this controversy because MIT's president, L. Rafael
Reif, sent a letter to the entire MIT community, apologizing for the
controversy.

Professor Dorian Abbot of the University of Chicago had been invited
to give a lecture at MIT on October 21 on his research, titled
"Climate and the Potential for Life on Other Planets."  And of course
anything to do with climate change, even on other planets, is
particularly important to the woke crowd since, after all, we're going
to die in nine years if we don't do as AOC and Biden demand.

To make a long story short, ocean planets are the most precarious abodes for life because the difference in temperature (a consequence of the thermal flux from the host star) between a freeze-over and a moist greenhouse is incredibly narrow. About two billion years ago and about 700 million years ago the Earth, which has never quite been an ocean world, froze from the poles to the equator rapidly. The average temperature in one case was about 15C just before the nearly-complete freeze-over as methane was depleted from the atmosphere, and in another case the earth had a similar average temperature before oxygen (not a greenhouse gas) replaced carbon dioxide and rusted exposed iron in the sea. The Earth went from a rust-like red to icy white. Ferric oxide is bright red, and as it forms from the rusting of iron, atmospheric oxygen vanishes, and atmospheric pressure plummets. Carbon dioxide is itself sequestered by plants (which is a partial loss of atmospheric pressure) and the oxygen (which comes from water) replaces oxygen in the atmosphere and dissolves in the seas. As it combines with iron the atmospheric pressure also drops, and so does the absolute temperature (based on absolute zero). Reduce the pressure in an insulated container and the temperature falls unless the container shrinks. Raise the pressure in the same container, and if the container does not expand the container gets hotter. On an ocean planet or one with a largely-oceanic surface like ours, the first place to go below the freezing point of water ices over, and nearly-white ice and snow reflect more warming radiation and the frozen zones expand. As those enter the middle latitudes, the icing accelerates. That's the cold end. The Earth is not far away from the average of 15C at the start of some of the nastiest ice ages. On the other side of temperature, an average temperature of about 30C is enough to initiate a dangerous wet greenhouse. 30C doesn't sound that bad, as it is just short of being a warm bath... but figuring that the laws of biological evolution are much the same on inhabited planets, 30C is a temperature at which oxygen-dependent creatures (like fish) die off because oxygen isn't so soluble in warm water. 30C is also the temperature of the hottest parts of the Earth's oceans, and those warm oceans have the high evaporation that fosters hurricanes. Hurricanes can dissipate much heat, but water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide.

Because the Earth has significant land masses and oceans in the tropical regions, something like the last Ice Age did not quite engulf the world. What wasn't iced up heavily became a sere desert planet, and there wasn't enough moisture in the atmosphere to expand the ice sheets into the subtropical regions. The tropical oceans themselves shrank, and being cooler they evaporated less moisture. Desert planets like those favored in science-fiction "space Westerns"... deserts and steppes make cinematography easy, which explains why most John Wayne westerns are filmed in the American Southwest and many scenes from Star Wars were filmed in Tunisia. Desert planets have greater ranges of temperature, but humidity is generally low, so both icing over and a wet greenhouse can happen only at more extreme temperatures worldwide.

OK. I'm done with some speculations on planetary conditions.

Quote:However, in August, Abbot co-authored an opinion piece for Newsweek in
which they wrote that the "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)"
agenda in academia seeks to increase the representation of some groups
through discrimination against members of other groups, violates the
ethical and legal principle of equal treatment, compromises the
university’s mission, and undermines the public's trust in
universities and their graduates.

Because they can? Because the minority groups that used to be hyper-disadvantaged aren't so disadvantaged as they used to be? Because affirmative action is no longer certain to cause an organization to end up with large numbers of incompetent people who cripple such an organization? Far more blacks and Hispanics have high-quality education, and a high-quality education usually suggests a work ethic. Lazy people are much less likely to graduate from college, including even mediocre-to-poor ones. Intellectual brilliance may be more relevant in STEM activities in deciding competence, but in bureaucratic organizations in which getting along with others and not stepping on the toes of co-workers matters far more. Bureaucracies are great places for giving jobs to people that a government agency or highly-regulated company that hires masses of employees yet cannot quite fire people who are marginally productive but personally pleasant.

When President Trump claims that blacks are doing better while he was President, then such is not the result so much of policies that make getting ahead easier for blacks, but instead because blacks are more likely to get the chances that blacks rarely got as late as 55 years ago in "Ku Kluxistan". I notice that black families in Michigan are often moving out of Dreadful -- excuse me, Detroit -- to rural areas where the educational standards are more rigorous and more of the funding goes into honest-to-Horace-Mann education and less into graft. K-12 education outside of Michigan's worst cities is horrible (I am sure that you can name plenty of examples), but in rural areas it is much more effective. Maybe building costs and maintenance aren't so expensive. Maybe the teachers don't have so many opportunities to do something more lucrative. K-12 teaching if any good is more salesmanship than anything else, and selling cars or real estate in a giant city can pay extremely well in a giant city, but not quite so well in a small town. If you have a well-paying (by local standards) job as a teacher, then cashiering in a convenience or box store, working in a motel or restaurant off Exit 23 off Interstate 60 (or is it Exit 60 off Interstate 23?), being a teller in a bank or credit union, or doing work on a farm or ranch might be the alternatives. It is easier for two black parents or a "mixed" couple (their kids will be black)  to insist that their kids not drown their talents in watching the Idiot Screen or playing video games instead of doing homework as they might more easily get away with in "Detritus, Michigan".

As for Hispanics... it might be surprising that many Hispanics are more imitating Asian-Americans than white Americans as a whole (there certainly are plenty of white losers who trivialize education, endure habits of meth and opiates, and move about aimlessly in life once a local mass-employer shuts down locally). Many are starting businesses.

OK, we have plenty of ways of judging people. A degree from a highly-selective university (Harvard, the University of California system) means more than one from a not-so-selective place (the University of Southern Illinois, which churns out a disproportionate number of "education" majors), and then even more than some questionable Bible School that does not challenge the values of the students who attend it or a questionable "technical institute" that promises to train people for careers. Such a college may advertise (and a college that advertises is suspect; MIT doesn't need to advertise, but a bunch of colleges that died when Obama was President because their graduates ended up with huge debt and no possibility of a paying career that they could not have gotten out of high school) does. Degrees from diploma mills are worthless except for temporarily bamboozling people. The effect rarely lasts, as the recipient of a degree from a diploma does nothing to prepare one for the complexities of a competitive world:

Quote:Many people receive advertisements for "colleges" offering the opportunity to earn college degrees (usually for personal advancement) with little or no work.<ref group=note>[[Ben Goldacre]] managed to get a degree for his cat, who had been dead for a few years at the time.</ref> These degrees, of course, typically do not represent a substantial learning opportunity and do not give the "students" the knowledge and skills represented by a traditional degree. The dedication of four academic years to achieving a bachelor's degree at a genuine college or university is also a life-changing experience whose effects are difficult to replicate with other experiences, which explains why a bachelor's degree from even a mediocre college or university suggests virtues that many employers cherish (such as recognizing that there is more to life than "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll"), and a degree from a diploma mill is worthless.

Earning a real degree implies a dedication of time, effort, and often great cost at some rigorous study at an institution at which one can flunk for inadequate performance or academic misconduct and receive no recognition of achievement. To be sure, many vocational schools that offer a certificate in a desirable trade never claim that their degrees are comparable to academic degrees, so such schools are not diploma mills.  

What gives a real qualification or degree its power is the fact that it is recognised by other institutions or authorities worldwide.<ref group=note>So in case you don't learn anything, at least it gets you qualified for job(s). Not that it would get you hired, just "qualified".</ref> Anyone can sign a piece of paper saying that they have a qualification in "being a badass," but unless the "Departments of Badass" at "Badass Universities" all over the world  recognise that piece of paper as meaning something, it means ''precisely nothing''. ''Real'' educational institutions that are recognised as being able to give degrees and qualifications are ''accredited''; meaning that their curriculum and standards have been examined and approved by an appropriate board of experts and we can be reasonably sure that the person holding the piece of paper can do what that piece of paper says they can.

America is still largely a capitalist society, and when bureaucratic behemoths fail because society deems them more Too Corrupt to Save or Contemptibly Obsolete instead of Too Big to Fail there will be niches for small businesses to take over where the corporation failed. When such happens on a large scale we will have another Great Depression. Ironically the Great Depression was a time in which many people started new businesses. For a paleontological model, I once saw "Sue" at the Natural History Museum of Chicago "Sue", the best fossil reconstruction of a T. Rex, was placed next to a mock-up against an African elephant. The elephant would have never had a chance. A modern creature arguably as bloodthirsty as any cinematic depiction of T. Rex (Meow!) is an absolute terror to any creature smaller than itself aside from perhaps a small dog... then again, small dogs are very cat-like. Prey for the mini-tigers prowling about the suburban shrubbery as if those were the Sunderbans of the Ganges Delta typically have rapid reproduction rates and large litters, so the mouse, sparrow, and lizard populations are not in danger. Elephants and humans get along with small litters, long gestation periods, and long childhoods -- and neither could get along in the presence of T. Rex. OK, we might get an edge over T. Rex if we had Katusha rockets, but those are not the sorts of things that hunter-gatherers can make.

In retailing, Sears and K-Mart are dying and JC Penney is on life support. I am tempted to believe that small businesses could start clothing stores in small towns that JC Penney left thirty years ago... and don't let me get started on the bloated, exorbitant, and now dull enclosed shopping malls. People will shop where the selection and quality are good and prices are fair, and they will not concern themselves with the religion, ethnicity, educational level, or even sexual preference of the owners. The chains became excessively rigid and unimaginative. OK, Wal*Mart thrives in part because it jumped onto the IT bandwagon when other retailers thought such incomprehensible. I'm not so sure that Wal*Mart will be able to fit an America that is less white and rural over the years.
 

Quote:Here are some excerpts from the Newsweek article:

Quote:    "American universities are undergoing a profound
   transformation that threatens to derail their primary mission: the
   production and dissemination of knowledge. The new regime is
   titled "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" or DEI, and is enforced
   by a large bureaucracy of administrators. Nearly every decision
   taken on campus, from admissions, to faculty hiring, to course
   content, to teaching methods, is made through the lens of
   DEI. This regime was imposed from the top and has never been
   adequately debated. In the current climate it cannot be openly
   debated: the emotions around DEI are so strong that
   self-censorship among dissenting faculty is nearly universal.

   The words "diversity, equity and inclusion" sound just, and are
   often supported by well-intentioned people, but their effects are
   the opposite of noble sentiments. Most importantly, "equity" does
   not mean fair and equal treatment. DEI seeks to increase the
   representation of some groups through discrimination against
   members of other groups. The underlying premise of DEI is that any
   statistical difference between group representation on campus and
   national averages reflects systemic injustice and discrimination
   by the university itself. The magnitude of the distortions is
   significant: for some job searches discrimination rises to the
   level of implicitly or explicitly excluding applicants from
   certain groups.

   DEI violates the ethical and legal principle of equal
   treatment. It entails treating people as members of a group rather
   than as individuals, repeating the mistake that made possible the
   atrocities of the 20th century. It requires being willing to tell
   an applicant "I will ignore your merits and qualifications and
   deny you admission because you belong to the wrong group, and I
   have defined a more important social objective that justifies
   doing so." It treats persons as merely means to an end, giving
   primacy to a statistic over the individuality of a human
   being. ...

   Viewed objectively, American universities already are incredibly
   diverse. They feature people from all countries, races and
   ethnicities (for example, one of us was born and raised in Chile,
   and is classified as Hispanic by his university). This is in stark
   contrast with most universities in Europe, Asia and South
   America. American universities are diverse not because of DEI, but
   because they have been extremely competitive at attracting talent
   from all over the world. Ninety years ago Germany had the best
   universities in the world. Then an ideological regime obsessed
   with race came to power and drove many of the best scholars out,
   gutting the faculties and leading to sustained decay that German
   universities never fully recovered from. We should view this as a
   warning of the consequences of viewing group membership as more
   important than merit, and correct our course before it is too
   late."

The last paragraph, comparing to DEI activists to Nazis, must have
been particularly infuriating to the woke crowd.

Pedagogic fads come and go, and "woke" will be one of them. The "woke" crowd will sink or swim depending on how they can achieve desirable results. Should they mess up the colleges, then there will be alternatives in the private sector. College students do not themselves cluster around educational fads such as the "value-free learning" that I recall being touted in the 1970's. No values? Then colleges might as well be playgrounds for "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll". Big deal! One can wallow in "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll" without attending college. Wallowing in "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll" while attending the University of Michigan is one sure way to both get nothing from the educational experience and never graduate. The more recent fad that reflects 3T values (It's all about the money") that has made people look to college more as a means of getting ahead in life irrespective of the harm that one does to others.

All in all, what matters most in an undergraduate education? It's the same old objective of the medieval university: to improve the student as a person. Obviously the necessary improvements deemed necessary at the University of Bologna over 900 years ago are different from those appropriate now because the technology and institutions of our time are no longer medieval, and the great lore of essential learning is mostly from later -- much later. Moral standards of a millennium ago (heretics and witches deserve to be burned at the stake) would now be abominable.

Quote:So the lecture was canceled, thanks to attacks by what Abbot describes
as a "Twitter mob."

Here's my prediction on social media: social media will clean up their acts or they will die for being asocial.

Quote:What's interesting is that Abbot has apparently received a great deal
of support, perhaps even more supporters than people in the Twitter
mob.  My guess is that this is true because the controversy is a
conflict between two woke programs -- climate change and
Stalinism/Fascism.  I gather that Abbot's work on climate change is so
advanced that the climate change side had an advantage over the
Stalinist/Fascist side.

It is possible to be a fascist or Stalinist and recognize the hazard of climate change. A fascist or Stalinist would see climate change as an opportunity to exterminate people to create a supposedly-better world. A liberal or libertarian would cavil at such... and rightly so. The rules that begin "Thou Shalt Not" can be terribly inconvenient. Just try living without them.

Quote:The result is that Abbot has been invited to give his lecture
internally at MIT, and also Princeton University has invited him to
gave the same lecture over Zoom.  According to news reports, thousands
of people have signed up to watch the Princeton lecture.  Who wouldn't
want to see a lecture on climate change on other planets?

Got a link?

Quote:I do believe that the loony trend is reversing.  It's been going on at
least since the 2000s, when Obama and Biden started using the
"teabagger" epithet to refer to political enemies, so it won't reverse
overnight, though Biden's presidency has been and is so thoroughly and
incredibly disastrous, that the reversal is occurring more rapidly
than might otherwise have been expected.

Do you truly believe that someone who has the "Tea Party" or its derivative "MAGA" agenda typically overflows with new ideas or can well expound old virtues that we need to rediscover the hard way at times? Vices and blunders must both seduce by exaggerating their attractiveness and denying their harm. Given a second chance, the Confederacy would have not repeated the insane thrust to Gettysburg, and the Nazis would have withdrawn from Stalingrad. I've known plenty of people who regretted such habits as alcoholism, smoking, drugs, and bed-hopping when those wrecked their lives. Those vices are blunders.

I rarely see the word "teabagger" any more. Indeed it does not pass spell-check, which not only finds spelling errors but also warns people of triviality and irrelevance. Juan Crisostomo Arriaga was one of the most promising young composers to have ever lived (he wrote some works suggesting that he might be on par with Beethoven when he died around age 20), but spellcheck suggests that such is largely irrellavunt to most people. "Irrelllavunt" is simply a misspelling. "Teabagger" is largely irrelevant to contemporary discussion of politics.

Donald Trump has done as much as any President to demonize opponents and rivals as any President in history. Not even Lincoln could say as much against the Confederacy as Trump has said about harmless, honest people. If you are going to demonize someone, then make sure that that person is thoroughly vile and lacking in moral virtues.

Quote:MIT is debating academic values versus loony woke policies.  It's a
good debate because there is some value to the loony work policies.
However, the fact that there's a debate at all is a sign that the
reversal is in progress.

College grads have an unpleasant habit of abandoning academic fads that do them no good. The only ones who continue those are the ones who maintain those in academia. Just think of "value-free education. Egad!



[/quote]


College grads have an unpleasant habit (at least as their professors see it) of abandoning academic fads that do them no good. The only ones who continue those are the ones who maintain those in academia. Just think of "value-free education. Egad!

(10-10-2021, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]*** 11-Oct-21 World View -- Tensions heat up between China and Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
  
• China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
  
• Xi Jinping is running out of time
  
• China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
  
• Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
  
• The Beijing Olympics
  
• When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
  
• Moving
  

****
**** Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
****


Isabel Zhang was born in mainland China, while her husband James Xu is Taiwanese.  The Australian couple are worried about their respective families in case of war (Australian Broadcasting)

On October 10, 1911, the Wuchang Uprising began, launching the Chinese
Revolution and forming the Chinese Nationalists, led by Sun Yat-Sen.
He created the Republic of China based on his "Three Principles of the
People," developed in 1905 -- nationalism, democracy and welfare.
Later in the century, the Chinese Communists, led by Mao Zedong,
defeated the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the
Chinese civil war that climaxed in 1949.  Chiang Kai-shek and the
Chinese Nationalists fled to Formosa and formed the nation of Taiwan.
On Sunday, October 10, Taiwan celebrated the anniversary of the
uprising that led to the Republic of China.

Beijing prefers to celebrate its own China National Day on October 1,
which commemorates the creation of the People's Republic of China in
1949.  The Chinese Communists hate Taiwan's National Day, and this has
led to dueling rhetoric.

Taiwan celebrated with huge parades highlighted by military equipment.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen said the following:

   <QUOTE>"We will do our utmost to prevent the status quo from
   being unilaterally altered.

   We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate
   our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that
   nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for
   us.

   The path that China has laid out offers neither a free and
   democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23
   million people."<END QUOTE>

****
**** China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
****

During the past few days, the Chinese Communists have sent hundreds of
fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace.  China's state media
explained this aerial invasion in this way:

   <QUOTE>"According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA
   has sent warplanes into the island's "airspace" in 198 days so far
   this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out
   wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with
   battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units
   having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to
   attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced
   veterans." ...

   The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it
   did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the
   situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and
   how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the
   Chinese mainland."<END QUOTE>

Well, that's an interesting historical comparison.  They're relating
the "siege" of Taiwan to a siege that the Communists used to defeat
the Nationalists in 1949.

So the Communists say that the purpose of sending hundreds of
warplanes over Taiwan is to allow their pilots to gain experience and
become "experienced veterans."  There are two possible interpretations
of this.  One is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, and
the other is that the current incursions are merely practice for a
future invasion to occur sometime in the future.

That the Communists intend to invade Taiwan is certain.  China has
repeatedly declared the intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to
China.

Last week, as the hundreds of warplanes were threatening Taiwan,
Communist leader Xi Jinping said the following:

   <QUOTE>"Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest
   obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the
   most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation. ...

   Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with
   the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan
   compatriots. ...

   No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch
   determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national
   sovereignty and territorial integrity. The historical task of the
   complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and
   will definitely be fulfilled."<END QUOTE>

****
**** Xi Jinping is running out of time
****

Xi's problem is that, in many ways, he's running out of time, mostly
for generational reasons.

Until the 1990s, the Nationalists ruled Taiwan, and most Taiwanese
believed that it was only a matter of time before Taiwan would be
reunitied with the mainland, although many would have demanded that
the Nationalists govern the reunited country.

Since then, the survivors of the 1940s civil war have died off, and
new generations have grown and come to power.  A major turning point
was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which the citizens of Taiwan
watched with horror.  This led to the rise of the nominally
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose leader is
the current president Tsai Ing-wen.  As the new generations have come
to power, and young people displace old people, more and more people
oppose reunification.  In recent years, Beijing's brutal treatment of
Hong Kong has reinforced this opposition.  According to polls, fewer
than 10% of the people today favor reunification, and many of those
would agree to reunification only if mainland China became a
democratic country, something that's not going to happen.

So Xi Jinping is running out of time in Taiwan, but he's also running
out of time on the mainland.  Younger generations are increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and are demanding that Xi Jinping stop
stalling and take action in Taiwan.

****
**** China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
****

The one-child policy, adopted in 1979, has been a disaster for China.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized.  If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.

The policy accelerated the aging of the population, and a decline in
the working-age population, which threatens economic growth.
Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer elderly people could be cared
for by their children.  In 2015 there were eleven working age Chinese
for every retiree. By 2050, if not earlier, there will only be two for
each retiree.

In addition, parents often aborted girl babies, since they wanted
their one child to be a boy.  The result is that millions of young
males have been unable to find a wife, and so females are enticed or
coerced (kidnapped by criminal gangs) to become wives of Chinese men
who have no other options, which is raising tensions with China's
neighbors.

The result is that the number of elderly people is growing, while the
population as a whole is shrinking.  This puts a strain on the
country's pension system, and creates a constantly shrinking labor
force.  China is already finding it difficult to fill many difficult
jobs, including jobs in the military, resulting in lower GDP growth.

There are other domestic problems facing Xi Jinping.  The collapse of
Evergrande is spreading and could have far-reaching consequences,
including outside of China.  (See "25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default"
)

Internationally, China is facing criticism about its brutal crackdown
on the free press in Hong Kong, China's arrest and enslavement of
millions of Uighurs, and illegal belligerent actions in the South
China Sea.  The Chinese Communists have made it abundantly clear that
they don't care at all what others think of them, and what
international laws they violate.  What we're seeing is the
millennia-old Chinese culture saying that the rest of the world are
barbarians, and are to be treated as donkeys, with no purpose except
to serve the Chinese Communists.

****
**** Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
****

According to analysts, China would prevail in an invasion of Taiwan,
although Taiwan would inflict a great deal of damage on China at the
same time.  However, that assumes that Taiwan would fight Taiwan
alone.

By the way, to my knowledge nobody supports China's invasion of
Taiwan.  Cambodia and Pakistan are close allies with China, but I'm
not aware that they or any other country would join China in an
invasion of Taiwan.

However, there are several countries that are likely to help defend
Taiwan.

The most obvious friend is the United States, and it's debated
endlessly whether the US would defend Taiwan, or would just stand by
and allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by China.  My personal belief is
that this would constitute a "generational regeneracy" event
(regenerating civic unity behind the president), and we would be at
war with China within a few hours or days.

America has been helping Taiwan to defend itself, mainly by providing
weapons systems.  In the last few days, it was reported that about two
dozen U.S. troops have been deployed to Taiwan for at least the last
year to train local military forces to bolster the island's defenses.
The special operators have worked with Taiwanese ground troops and the
Marines have worked with maritime forces on small-boat operations.

Taiwan has other friends, most notably Japan.  As I've been writing
for years, China has been thirsting for a war with Japan in revenge
for the atrocities (chemical warfare, rape of Nanking) committed by
Japan on China during World War II.  Furthermore, and nationalism and
xenophobia have increased in both countries, and there are now signs
that the Japanese are thirsting for a new war with the Chinese.  It
shouldn't take long for both thirsts to be quenched.

One trigger for a Japanese war with China would be a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan.  Although Japan has a "pacifist" constitution, in 2015 the
law was reinterpreted to permit Japanese forces to defend an ally
(Taiwan or the US) as "collective self-defense," provided that Japan's
government determined that the war was a security threat that
threatened Japan's own survival.  For example, the Japanese might view
the invasion of Taiwan as a stepping-stone to a planned invasion of
Japan.  (See "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China"
)

Beyond Japan, there is also the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,
linking the United States, Japan, India and Australia, This grouping
does not have any military commitments, but it will hold talks to
"hold China accountable."

****
**** The Beijing Olympics
****

The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will begin on Friday, February 4,
and end on Sunday, February 20.  This is an interesting milepost in
the discussions of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

On the one hand, the Olympics games are a matter of enormous
prestige for the Chinese Communists, and they would not want to
besmirch the games by an untoward event, like a major war.  This suggests
that any planned invasion of Taiwan would have to come after February 20.

On the other hand, it's expected that there will be substantial
boycotts of the games, for two reasons.  One reason is that China is
actively committing genocide, ethnic cleansing and enslavement of
millions of Muslim Uighurs, and many people will boycott in protest.
The second reason is that China kidnaps and jails foreigners without
charges in order to gain political advantage, in a policy known as
"hostage diplomacy," and many people want to stay away from China for
fear of being held hostage to some political dispute.

****
**** When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
****

Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen both upped rhetoric this past week, in
celebration of the "National Days" for China and Taiwan, respectively,
with China going much farther by launching hundreds of warplanes to
fly over Taiwan.

There is enormous and growing pressure on Xi Jinping to do something
to solve the Taiwan problem.  However, I agree with those analysts who
say that Xi cannot risk an invasion at this time (or at any time,
really) because the results would be too unpredictable and potentially
catastrophic.  So you have the "pressure cooker" analogy, where you
don't know when the pressure will be too great, but you know that the
pressure has to blow at some point.  Or maybe you prefer the "straw
that breaks the camel's back" analogy where you know that if you keep
piling on straw, then eventually a straw will break the camel's back,
though you don't know in advance which one.

As I've written in the past, crisis wars begin with a chaotic
unexpected event.  World War I began because a 12-year-old high school
student decided in 1914 that it would be fun to shoot an Archduke.  WW
II began in 1937 because a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods.  Those wars were a complete surprise, even to the
belligerents.  That's how WW III will begin.  It will be totally
irrational, insane and unexpected, and it could happen any day.

****
**** Moving
****

During the last two weeks, I've been moved to a new apartment, and I
still can't figure out where many things are in the new apartment.  At
the same time, my computer's hard disk crashed, though fortunately I
had everything backed up.  All of this has been extremely
overwhelming, and it turns out that at age 77 it's even more so, when
everything happens at once.

So anyway, anyone who wants to contact me by snail mail should use my
new address, which is the same as my old address, except for the
apartment number:

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China mounts largest incursion yet near Taiwan, blames U.S. for tensions (Reuters, 4-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of PLA warplanes flying over Taiwan Straits as form of National Day ‘military parade’ (Global Times, Beijing, 3-Oct-2021)
  
• The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan says it's 'on alert' amid China air incursions (Deutche Welle, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of China planes enter Taiwan air defence zone (BBC, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan marks ‘national day’ today under looming shadow of China (Hindustan Times, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan rejects China's 'path' amid show of military force (AP, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping vows to fulfil Taiwan ‘reunification’ with China by peaceful means (Guardian, London, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping Warns World to Butt Out of 'Taiwan Question' (Newser, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Chinese President Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan is in country’s best interests (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan (Reuters, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan won't be forced to bow to China, president says (Reuters, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• There's talk of the threat of war between China and Taiwan, and it's impacting Asian Australians (Australian Broadcasting, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Attrition: Revising Chinese History As It Happens (Strategy Page, 28-May-2021)
  
• China Slams [former PM Tony] Abbott Warning It Could 'Lash Out Disastrously' Over Taiwan as Xi Vows Reunification (Australian Broadcasting, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Canberra’s provocative actions over Taiwan may render irreparable damage to China-Australia relations (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan’s Tsai turns to masters for help out of fear of catastrophic consequences: Global Times editorial (Global Times, Beijing, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Recognize That China Has Huge Demographic Problems (Forbes, 25-Mar-2021)
  
• US troops deployed to Taiwan to train local forces amid growing tensions with China, report says (Stars And Stripes, 7-Oct-2021)
  
• Deflation Threat Looms As China Suffers First Population Decline Since 1949 (Zero Hedge, 27-Apr-2021)
  
• Japan Sees China-Taiwan Friction as Threat to Its Security (Bloomberg, 24-Jun-2021)
  

Related Articles:

• Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China (28-Jun-2021)
  
  
• China Evergrande construction firm heads to default (25-Sep-2021)
  
  
• China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan (24-Jul-2021)
  
  
• China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability (16-Sep-2021)
  
  
• ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet (17-Sep-2021)
  
  
• The Afghanistan catastrophe (23-Aug-2021)
  
  
• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
Sun Yat-Sen,  Wuchang Uprising, Chinese Revolution,
Republic of China, Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong,
one-child policy, Japan, Australia, India,
Beijing Olympics, hostage diplomacy

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

I thought World War II began in September 1939, not 1937. Did historians revise the date based on new information about that time?

** 28-Oct-2021 World View: Dorian Abbot at Princeton

Quote:> The result is that Abbot has been invited to give his lecture
> internally at MIT, and also Princeton University has invited him
> to gave the same lecture over Zoom. According to news reports,
> thousands of people have signed up to watch the Princeton lecture.
> Who wouldn't want to see a lecture on climate change on other
> planets?

(10-27-2021, 11:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]> Got a link?

-- James Madison Program hosts geophysics professor Dorian Abbot after
MIT cancels lecture
https://www.dailyprincetonian.com/articl...-princeton
(Princetonian, 26-Oct-2021)

-- Dorian Abbot / Princeton welcomes professor whose lecture was
canceled at MIT
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/10/17/...princeton/
(Boston Herald, 17-Oct-2021)

** 29-Oct-2021 World View: Start of World War II

(10-28-2021, 09:42 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: [ -> ]> I thought World War II began in September 1939, not 1937. Did
> historians revise the date based on new information about that
> time?

World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident in July 1937,
which was followed by the Japanese invasion of China and
the Rape of Nanking.


*** World View 2-Feb-2019: When will World War III begin?
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...876#p43876

*** 31-Oct-21 World View -- Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador over Iran's increasing influence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador over Iran's increasing influence
  
• Judge Tarek Bitar the center of the Beirut's October 14 gun battle
  

****
**** Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador over Iran's increasing influence
****


Christian protesters block the streets in Beirut (Al-Jazeera)

Lebanon continues to face one disaster after another, following a
historic port implosion last year and an eight-hour gun battle in
Beirut earlier this month. Lebanon now faces a major diplomatic and
trade crisis with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.

Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador to Lebanon on Friday for
consultations, and requested the departure of Lebanon's Saudi envoy by
Monday. Saudi Arabia futhermore halted all imports of all products
from Lebanon. Bahrain followed Saudi Arabia in solidarity, and Kuwait
and the United Arab Emirates did the same.

The action was triggered by the airing last week of an August 5
interview in which Lebanon's Information Minister George Kordahi made
harsh criticisms of the Saudi Arabia led coalition in the war in Yemen
against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. In the interview, Kordahi that
the Houthi rebels were "defending themselves ... against an external
aggression," and that "homes, villages, funerals and weddings were
being bombed" by the coalition.

Last week, Kordahi told local reporters on Wednesday that he refused
to apologize and that the interview was his "personal opinion," since
he was still a private citizen at the time. He said, "I did not wrong
anyone. I did not attack anyone. Why should I apologize? I stated my
position with love as a human who feels Arab suffering."

Well, the Saudis apparently did not feel the love, as the Saudis
withdrew their ambassador shortly thereafter.

Saudi Arabia has considered Lebanon a close ally for decades, but
relations have soured as Hezbollah has gained power in Lebanon.
Hezbollah is recognized as a Shia terrorist group by the West and by
the Arab League. Saudi Arabia and Lebanon got along well for years,
as long they could agree that Israel was the bad guy. But things
started deteriorating in 2011 when Syria's Shia/Alawite president
Bashar al-Assad started attacking innocent Sunni protesters, and and
Hezbollah's militias began fighting in Syria in support of al-Assad's
army. Relations between Lebanon and Saudi further eroded in 2020,
when the Abraham Accords were signed during the Trump administration.

A particularly dramatic incident occurred in 2017, when Saad Hariri,
the prime minister of Lebanon, made a seemingly routine trip to Saudi
Arabia, but then shocked everyone by resigning as prime minister while
there, giving as a reason the fear that Iran and Hezbollah would
assassinate him. Hariri's father, Rafiq Hariri, was killed in 2005 by
a massive explosion in Beirut
that
was blamed on Syria and Hezbollah. (See "5-Nov-17 World View -- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia"
)

So George Kordahi's harsh criticism of Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen
may have been stated "with love," but now that he is Lebanon's
Information Minister, he is under increasing pressure to resign.

****
**** Judge Tarek Bitar the center of the Beirut's October 14 gun battle
****

The new actions by Saudi Arabia followed a six hour gun battle in
downtown Beirut, Lebanon's capital city, on October 14. Hezbollah
supporters were marching peacefully to protest the investigation of
last year's port explosion, which was led by Judge Tarek Bitar. The
gun battle was between Hezbollah supporters and supporters of Samir
Geagea, who is leader of the Lebanese Forces party (which is a
political party, not the Lebanon army). Each side accuses the other
of firing the first shot, and seven people were killed, with dozens
injured.

At the center of all this is Judge Tarek Bitar, who has been described
as incorruptible, and who is conducting the investigation into who is
responsible for the Beirut port explosion last year. On Tuesday,
August 4, 2020, a catastrophic explosion in the Beirut seaport leveled
thousands of homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left
300,000 people homeless. It's considered by many to be the biggest
non-nuclear explosion in history. (See "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion"
)

Lebanon is a country where corruption runs deep and politicians are
assassinated, all with impunity. Meanwhile, there is no regular
electricity or water or garbage collection, the value of the currency
has fallen 90%, and the politicians appear to be doing very well. The
ordinary people of Lebanon are sick and tired of the impunity, and
want someone to be named responsible for the port blast. It's widely
believed that Hezbollah is responsible, though the crime may be great
enough to enmesh other politicians as well. The reason that Hezbollah
supporters were marching on October 14 is that they were demanding
that Judge Bitar's investigation be ended, leaving no one to take the
blame for the port blast.

Lebanon is hoping for aid from the international community before the
economy collapses completely. Aid is being blocked, pending reforms
and democratization of Lebanon's government, and Bitar's investigation
has been seen by the international community as the best hope for
reform. Lebanon's politicians were particularly hoping for support
from the Arab nations, but that now seems impossible.

The October 14 gun battle has further paralyzed Lebanon's government.
Hezbollah is refusing to allow any cabinet meetings to occur unless
Judge Bitar's investigation is permanently ended. Lebanon's
government was disastrously weak before, but now can't even hold a
meeting.

Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah is blaming Samir Geagea and
the Lebanese Forces party with being responsible for the October 14
shootout, and is accusing Saudi Arabia of providing support and
perhaps instigating the attack on Hezbollah protesters. This
infuriated the Saudis, and after the airing of George Kordahi's
interview, and his harsh criticisms of the Saudi Arabia led coalition
in the war in Yemen, the Saudis withdrew their ambassador from
Lebanon.

Sources:

• Saudi-Lebanon diplomatic crisis worsens as envoy expelled, imports banned (Reuters, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador amid Yemen row (BBC, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia, Bahrain expel Lebanese ambassadors (Al-Jazeera, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Lebanon: Gulf diplomatic crisis mounts over minister's Yemen war comments (Mideast Eye, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia expels Lebanese Ambassador, bans all imports from Lebanon (Saudi Gazette, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia issues calming statement as Lebanese tensions rise over port explosion case (Arab News, 27-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia recalls envoy to Lebanon over 'insulting' remarks on Yemen war (France24, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia expels Lebanese ambassador, cuts imports over Yemen war comments (Times of Israel, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Saudi Arabia orders Lebanon envoy to leave, recalls its ambassador to country (Arab News, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Kuwait, UAE join Saudi Arabia with measures against Lebanon (AP, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• Tarek Bitar, Lebanon's judge with a grudge (France24, 14-Oct-2021)
  
• Beirut blast probe again interrupted as interrogation of ex-PM halted - source (Reuters, 28-Oct-2021)
  
• Samir Geagea / Lebanese Forces supporters protest party leader’s summoning (Al-Jazeera, 27-Oct-2021)

Related Articles:

• Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion (22-Aug-2020)
  
  
• Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses (19-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon (21-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq (03-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia (05-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Arab League brands Lebanon's Hezbollah a terrorist organization (12-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe (24-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
  
• Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock (16-Feb-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait,
George Kordahi, Yemen, Houthis, Iran,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria,
Saad Hariri, Rafiq Hariri,
Tarek Bitar, Beirut, Samir Geagea, Lebanese Forces

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 2-Nov-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
  
• ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar
  

****
**** Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
****


ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy)

When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance
operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in
2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were
like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire
villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot
down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist
act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across
the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still
live in refugee camps.

As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing
troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about
"clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a
sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin
people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter"
)

The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun
"clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military
shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings,
including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save
the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was
“deliberately set ablaze.”

So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past.
Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the
fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid
enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own
villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now.

However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas
versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas
simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are
fighting back.

According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of
Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers
looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of
simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters,
mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to
their claims, which are probably exaggerated.

However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in
a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban
underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to
reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their
grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to
1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to
fight, where the Rohingyas were not.

As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational
Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war.
(See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads"
)

Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and
belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and
ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other
ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is
turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that
ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History
is now repeating itself.

****
**** ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar
****

ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even
when the member governments committed atrocities.

ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the
biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung
Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking
move by the organization, which has previously made a point
of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states.

ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain
relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments
that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized.

In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time
ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the
disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship
was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of
China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse,
or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines
objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a
great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on
China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting"
)

More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been
challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the
so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the
United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is
the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will
help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has
triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since
Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines
from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying
France.)

Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with
the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially
Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it
remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant.

Sources:

• Rebels fighting Myanmar’s junta are doing better than expected (Economist, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• Another 25 Myanmar Junta Soldiers Killed in Upcountry Clashes (The Irawaddy, Myanmar, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• After Standing Up to Myanmar Military, What Next for ASEAN? (The Irawaddy, Myanmar, 30-Oct-2021)
  
• ASEAN summits bring wins but leave big questions on Myanmar, unity (Nikkei, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Army shelling in Myanmar blamed for setting 160 homes ablaze (AP, 29-Oct-2021)
  
• Asean in uncharted waters as it snubs Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Oct-2021)
  
• U.S. concerned over Myanmar army operations in Chin state, town ablaze (Reuters, 1-Nov-2021)
  
• National Unity Gov / ASEAN urged to take ‘decisive step’ by recognising Myanmar’s NUG (Al-Jazeera, 27-Oct-2021)
  
• UN envoy says ‘civil war’ has spread throughout Myanmar (AP, 27-Oct-2021)
  
• Opinion: Time to support democracy in Myanmar (NewIndianExpress, 1-Nov-2021)

Related Articles:

• Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads (24-Jun-2021)
  
  
• ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet (17-Sep-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting (21-Nov-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Philippines,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Quad, Australia, India, Japan, ANKUS, UK, France

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war
  
• Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border
  
• Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy
  

****
**** UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war
****


Globe showing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service)

For six weeks after the February 1 military coup in Myanmar, the army,
known as the Tatmadaw, took a measured approach to the peaceful
pro-democracy demonstrations. However, this was followed by "an
uptick in violence and much more violent methods used to suppress the
demonstrators," according to a UN report issued on Friday:

<QUOTE>"We do feel now having observed the events and
collected preliminary evidence that the facts show a widespread
and systematic attack on the civilian population amounting to
crimes against humanity.

This was happening in different places at the same time,
indicating to us it would be logical to conclude this was from a
central policy. And, also, we saw that particular groups were
targeted, especially for arrests and detentions that appear to be
without due process of law. And this includes, of course,
journalists, medical workers and political
opponents."<END QUOTE>

According to Nicholas Koumjian, the UN official who issued the report,
there are more and more groups within Myanmar calling for a full civil
war, which is not surprising, as the junta continues to escalate its
violence.

It's worth pointing out that the junta really couldn't care less what
some United Nations agency claims. Myanmar is in the opening stages
of a full-scale generational crisis civil war, and no outside
political pressure can have much of an effect, just as a tsunami could
not be stopped by a UN agency.

In fact, none of this is particularly surprising. Myanmar entered a
generational Crisis era in 2016, and the Buddhist army began by
committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas. So now,
the army is performing the same "clearance operations" against the
Chin people in northern Myanmar, and is preparing similar operations
against other non-favored ethnic populations.

****
**** Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border
****

According to China's state media, there are over 10,000 Chinese
nationals in Myanmar waiting to cross the border into Ruili, China.
Regulations and restrictions by China's government are permitting only
about 100 people to cross the border into China each day. The
restrictions were put in place in June because of the instability in
Myanmar, and also because the delta variant of the Covid virus is
spreading in China, and steps are being taken to block it.

In addition, there's also been a sharp increase in cross-border crimes
against China or Chinese citizns, such as telecommunications and
internet fraud, gambling and money laundering. Chinese citizens
living in northern Myanmar are being told register their identities,
and to confess any crimes they've committed.

Ruili is a city of 260,000 residents, and they've suffered almost 200
days under lockdown, because of the two factors -- China's Covid
policy and the turmoil in Myanmar. According to the city's mayor:
"The epidemic has ruthlessly looted [Ruili] over and over again,
draining the city’s last trace of life and devouring the hope of its
residents. Please save this hero city! Please pay attention to this
beautiful border town!"

There is also anti-Chinese violence in Myanmar far from the Chinese
border. Many people in Myanmar blame China for supporting the junta
in its violence against peaceful protesters, and Chinese factories and
citizens in Yangon have been attacked in Yangon. The Chinese have
deflected these accusations by blaming the attacks on incitement by
the United States.

China is actually pursuing a dual strategy in Myanmar. At the top
level, and in the national media, China is not referring to a "coup,"
but to euphemisms like a "cabinet reshuffle." On the other hand,
local media in China are referring to the violence in Myanmar
following the "coup."

****
**** Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy
****

The coup and the threat of civil war in Myanmar have been a lot more
than a mere annoyance to the Chinese. They represent a threat to
China's grand geopolitical strategy for world domination.

China has for years been supplying weapons to Myanmar's government,
led by Aung San Suu Kyi until the February 1 coup. Since then, the
Chinese have cautiously maintained good relations with the junta,
because of Myanmar's part in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

As I've written in the past, China's grand plan is that it will become
the leader of the world within 5-10 years, and that almost all
countries will gladly accept China's leadership. This goes beyond
invading and annexing Taiwan. It also means that the 20+ border
disputes that China has with India, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and
other countries will be settled amicably in China's favor, and that
includes China's control of the South China Sea.

China's vision is like Isaiah 2:4, which says: "The Lord will judge
between the nations and will settle disputes for many peoples. They
will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning
hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they
train for war anymore." This is exactly China's delusional vision,
except that the role of the Lord will be played by the Chinese
Communist Party. (Incidentally, that's why China is promising to stop
increasing coal production by 2030.)

According to the delusion, the only possible reason why this plan
might fail is that the United States would be jealous of China's power
and might come to the defense of Taiwan and Japan. That's why China
is developing hypersonic and ballistic nuclear missiles, in order to
attack the United States and bring about this millennium of peace.

So now getting back to Myanmar, the major BRI project in Myanmar is
the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is strategically
essential to China's grand plan, since it provides a corridor for the
transport of people and goods between China's Yunnan province and the
Indian Ocean, through Myanmar's ports on the Andaman Sea. This is
similar to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects
China's Xinjiang province to Pakistan's Gwardar port, which China now
controls.

Both CMEC and CPEC are essential to China's delusional grand plan, and
so the civil war in Myanmar represents a threat in two different ways
-- because it could spill over into the population of China, and
because it would threaten the strategically important CMEC.

So China is taking a cautious approach to the Myanmar junta. The
junta leaders couldn't care less what a United Nations agency says,
but they might listen to what the Chinese say. However, what's going
on in Myanmar is a generational crisis civil war, and the drive to
fight the war is deeply organic and buried deep in the DNA of all the
parties. The Chinese probably understand that because of their own
deeply organic ethnic atrocities, so all they can do is hope that the
Myanmar war will fizzle out, which is highly improbable in a
generational Crisis era.

Sources:

• Myanmar Emergency Update (1 November 2021) (ReliefWeb, 1-Nov-2021)
  
• China is not happy about Myanmar’s coup (Economist, 10-Jul-2021)
  
• Chinese Media’s Conflicting Narratives on the Myanmar Coup (Diplomat, 14-Aug-2021)
  
• Myanmar locals urged not to be incited by West as 32 Chinese factories in Yangon suffer from attacks (Global Times, Beijing, 15-Mar-2021)
  
• Chinese nationals in northern Myanmar told to register identities amid crime fight (Global Times, Beijing, 23-Jun-2021)
  
• Over 10,000 Chinese waiting at China-Myanmar border city to turn themselves in: official (Global Times, Beijing, 2-Oct-2021)
  
• Myanmar: Systematic attack on civilians, rights mechanism reveals (United Nations, 5-Nov-2021)
  
• UN investigator: Crimes against humanity under Myanmar junta (AP, 6-Nov-2021)
  
• Attacks on civilians in Myanmar ‘crimes against humanity’: UN (Al-Jazeera, 6-Nov-2021)
  
• China envoy visits Myanmar as new route to Indian Ocean opened (Reuters, 1-Sep-2021)
  
• Myanmar villagers tear down Chinese fences built along the border (Radio Free Asia, 6-Nov-2021)
  
• Chinese border town Ruili ‘ruthlessly looted’ after almost 200 days of COVID-19 lockdown (Globe And Mail, 28-Oct-2021)

Related Articles:

• Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches (02-Nov-2021)
  
  
• China's delusional geopolitical strategy (16-Dec-2020)
  
  
• Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads (24-Jun-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State,
Nicholas Koumjian, United Nations, Yangon,
China, Ruili, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Isaiah 2:4,
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, CMEC, Yunnan province,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Xinjiang province

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment]
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 8-Nov-21 World View -- Pro- and Anti-Iran violence grows in Iraq as PM survives assassination attempt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
  
• Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
  
• Growing anti-Iran riots
  
• Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists
  

****
**** Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks
****


Riots in Baghdad on Friday

Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination
attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones
attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a
third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards.
Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily
fortified "Green Zone."

The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday,
where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October
10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only
17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament.

Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone
attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because
Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border
with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that
the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility
for the failed drone attacks.

****
**** Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
****

Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the
1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those
wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against
the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the
1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and
bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale
missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and
refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)")

Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance
of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are
still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain
political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have
triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq.

Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when
Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the
country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the
Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats.

****
**** Growing anti-Iran riots
****

However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September
2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran.
Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the
Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging
to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war"
)

In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests,
this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms,
and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government
that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious
sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a
particular focus on Iran.

So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the
pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had
gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political
alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held.

So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in
October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were
protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by
Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that
last month's parliamentary elections were rigged.

****
**** Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists
****

The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to
be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73
seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly
respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during
the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention,
including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey.

With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's
violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one
analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10
election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a
governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those
negotiations to end.

There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one
side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the
meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government
to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the
Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will
continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that
America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans
are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the
disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Sources:

• Mustafa al-Kadhimi / Pro-Iran militias mock drone attack on Iraqi PM’s residence (Rudaw, 7-Nov-2021)
  
• Iraq PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi survives ‘assassination attempt’ (Al-Jazeera, 7-Nov-2021)
  
• Iraqi PM safe after drone attack on residence, military says (Reuters, 7-Nov-2021)
  
• Zeidon Alkinani / Tishreen’s Interaction With Iraq’s Early Elections (2021) (Iram Center, 20-Oct-2021)
  
• Zeidon Alkinani / Beyond the Parallels, Iraq’s Direct Repercussions from Afghanistan (Iram Center, 13-Sep-2021)

Related Articles:

• American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury (31-Dec-2019)
  
  
• Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread (29-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq (03-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Mustafa al-Kadhimi,
Fatah Alliance, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMFs,
Iraqi Revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Basra,
Muqtada al-Sadr, Sadrists

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants
  
• Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing
  
• Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off
  

****
**** Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants
****


Hundreds of migrants are trapped in a Belarus forest along the border with Poland (AFP)

There is a growing possibility of military clashes across the border
between Poland and Belarus, as Belarus attempts to push thousands of
migrants into Poland. The policy is in revenge for sanctions imposed
after Belarus illegally forced a passenger plan to land, in order to
jail a reporter on the flight.

Hundreds of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia are trapped
in Belarus on the border with Poland, with thousands more migrants on
the way to the border. Poland has installed a barbed-wire border
fence to prevent the migrants from crossing, but the migrants are
using wire cutters and shovels, supplied by the Belarus military, to
cut the wire or dig up the fence.

The Belarus military is standing behind the migrants, shooting their
guns into the air, threatening any migrants who attempt to turn back
from the border. Poland's military is standing on the other side of
the barbed-wire fence, blocking any attempts by the migrants to cut
the barbed wire and cross into Poland.

Poland has deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to the border and a
volunteer Territorial Defense force was put on alert, according to
Poland's defense ministry.

The European Union is describing the Belarus policy as "weaponizing
migrants." Belarus has extended this policy from Poland to Lithuania
and Latvia.

****
**** Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing
****

The reason that these thousands of migrants are in Belarus is because
they were solicited on the orders of dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarus has been soliciting migrants from the Middle East, Africa and
Asia to travel to Belarus, and has provided free air travel for them
to do so. The migrants are promised an opportunity to cross the
border into Poland or Germany.

The current crisis began on May 23, when a Ryanair passenger plane
with 126 passengers crossing Belarus air space was ordered by Belarus
air traffic controllers to land in the Belarus capital city Minsk,
supposedly because of a "potential security threat on board." The
demand was backed up by a Belarus fighter jet.

When the plane landed in Minsk, Belarus security forces boarded the
plane and arrested a Belarus journalist, Raman Pratasevich, and his
girlfriend Sofia Sapega. Pratasevich had been a vocal critic of
Lukashenko, including accusations of rigged elections. After his
arrest, Pratasevich was paraded in staged events.

In June, the EU, US and UK imposed coordinated sanctions on Belarus.
The EU has banned flights from Balavia and other Belarus
airlines from its airports and airspace. The EU is also
planning to sanction airlines that are cooperating with Belarus
in flying migrants from the Mideast and Africa to Belarus.

Already, Poland's defense ministry has thanked Iraq for having Belarus
close its consulates in Baghdad and Irbil that were giving tourist
visas to migrants.

These sanctions have infuriated Lukashenko. He has retaliated and
taken revenge by launching his program of weaponizing migrants --
transporting them from the Middle Ease and Africa, and then trying to
push them into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.

****
**** Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off
****

Video from the border is showing a tense military standoff.
Polish border guards have used teargas to push back people who
tried to cut through the barbed wire. Gunshots were thought
to come from Belarus border guards, shot in the air to
frighten migrants and prevent them from moving away from the border.

Hundreds of migrants have set up a tent city on the Belarus side of
the border in a forested area, where they are essentially trapped.

As more thousands of migrants are headed to the same area, it seems
certain that there will be some kind of military confrontation on the
border. There is the possibility that lives will be lost, or that a
gunfight will break out between the border guards on the two sides.
And with Russia supporting Belarus, it's possible that a clash could
spread.

Sources:

• Poland warns of further large migrant clashes on Belarus border (Reuters, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Poland blocks hundreds of migrants at Belarus border (BBC, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Migrants aided by Belarus try to storm border into Poland (AP, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Poland says Belarus 'fully' controls migrants after attempted breach (Deutsche Welle, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Poland blocks hundreds of migrants, refugees at Belarus border (Al-Jazeera, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Belarus escorts 1,000 migrants towards Polish border (Guardian, London, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Crisis worsens on Poland-Belarus border as migrants congregate and troops are mobilized (CNN, 8-Nov-2021)
  
• Lithuania expects further action after ICAO report on Ryanair flight's diversion to Minsk (Baltic Times, 11-Oct-2021)
  
• Raman Pratasevich / Online Appearance By Dissident Belarusian Journalist Pratasevich Raises Questions (RFE/RL, 8-Nov-2021)

Related Articles:

• Gleeful China wins big Hong Kong victory at UN Human Rights Council (05-Jul-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko,
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Middle East, Africa, Asia,
Ryanair, Raman Pratasevich, Sofia Sapega, Balavia

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 12-Nov-21 World View -- Israel holds joint naval exercises with UAE, Bahrain, affirming Abraham Accords

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bahrain, UAE, Israel, US hold joint exercises in Red Sea
  
• After one year, the military drills affirm the continuation of Abraham Accords
  

****
**** Bahrain, UAE, Israel, US hold joint exercises in Red Sea
****


Signing ceremony for Abraham Accords at the White House on 15-Sep-2020, with officials from Bahrain, Israel, USA and UAE

Israel's navy is taking part in joint maritime drills with the United
Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and the United States in the Red Sea.
This is the first time that Israel's navy has publicly taken part in
naval drills with Gulf Arab states.

According to a statement by the US Naval Fifth Fleet, which is
headquartered at a base in Bahrain:

<QUOTE>"The five-day exercise includes at-sea training aboard
amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland (LPD 27) focused on
visit, board, search and seizure tactics. The training will
enhance interoperability between participating forces' maritime
interdiction teams.

"It is exciting to see U.S. forces training with regional partners
to enhance our collective maritime security capabilities," said
Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of NAVCENT, U.S. 5th Fleet and
Combined Maritime Forces. "Maritime collaboration helps safeguard
freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade, which are
essential to regional security and stability."<END QUOTE>

This statement doesn't say so, but the drills are aimed at Iran. In
March and April, Iran and Israel allegedly attacked each others ships
in the Persian Gulf with missiles and explosive. And the US Navy had
to fire warning shots during encounters with Iranian vessels in the
Gulf.


****
**** After one year, the military drills affirm the continuation of Abraham Accords
****

The Abraham Accords were announced on August 13, 2020, and signed by
the participants in September. The Accords were negotiated by Donald
Trump's administration between Israel and UAE, later joined by
Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Trump described the Accords as historic
because they were the first public normalization of relations between
Israel and an Arab country since the agreement with Jordan in 1994 and
the agreement with Egypt in 1979.

There was a lot of skepticism that the Accords would survive for long,
but after a year they've even survived an 11-day war between Israel
and Gaza. Israel has exchanged ambassadors with the other
signatories, and has initiated trade relations with them. The joint
naval exercises that Israel is holding with UAE and Bahrain indicate
that the Accords are continuing as intended.

One (simplistic) way of looking at the Mideast is that Israel is part
of two major fault lines.

One fault line is Sunni vs Shia. This conflict is pitting Iran versus
the Arab Gulf nations, and Israel against its will has been drawn into
this conflict by Iran. The Abraham Accords directly address this
fault line.

The other fault line is Israel vs Palestinians. This conflict comes
out of the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. This fault line is
completely unrelated to the Abraham Accords, and is still headed for
conflict as much as before.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there
is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis"
of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major
new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of
1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part
of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus
Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

Sources:

• US, Israel, UAE and Bahrain hold joint Red Sea naval exercise in message to Iran (Times Of Israel, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• U.S. and Regional Partners Conduct Maritime Security Exercise in Red Sea (US 5th Fleet, Bahrain, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• US, Israel, UAE, Bahrain launch joint naval drills in Red Sea (Al-Jazeera, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• UAE, Egypt complete ‘Zayed 3’ joint military exercise (Al Arabiya, 16-Aug-2021)
  
• UAE, Bahrain, Israel and U.S. forces in first joint naval drill (Reuters, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• UAE, Bahrain, "Israel", US Together in Joint Security Exercises (Al-Mayadeen, Beirut, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• Israel holds first navy drills with ‘frenemies’ from Persian Gulf (Russia Today, 11-Nov-2021)
  
• The two pillars of the Abraham Accords (Middle East Institute, 12-Aug-2021)
  
• It’s been one year since the Abraham Accords. Gulf-Israel ties are still far from normal. (Atlantic Council, 13-Aug-2021)

Related Articles:

• The aftermath of the Israel - Gaza war (26-May-2021)
  
  
• Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket (20-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Israel, Iran,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, US Naval 5th Fleet,
Abraham Accords, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan, Egypt

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 25-Nov-21 World View -- Ahmaud Arberry verdict and the KKK Democrats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Overwhelmingly white jury finds three white defendants guilty of murdering black Arberry
  
• The return of the Democrat KKK
  
• Kyle Rittenhouse and George Floyd
  
• CNN commentary
  
• Loony left comments on the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict
  
• Darryl Brooks
  
• Lessons learned
  

****
**** Overwhelmingly white jury finds three white defendants guilty of murdering black Arberry
****


Black murder victim Ahmaud Arberry and three convicted white murderers (Getty, toofab.com)

Despite the hysteria and threats of violence from the left-wing loons
on CNN and MSNBC, a jury of 11 white people and one black person
convicted three white defendants of murder of a black person, Ahmaud
Arberry.

The leftist loons claimed that white jurors only vote in a racist,
bigoted way, but instead they examined the evidence, and the evidence
was overwhelming that Ahmaud Arberry had been murdered.

So the court system worked correctly.

****
**** The return of the Democrat KKK
****

It was pretty clear that the Democrat KKK attitudes and hatred of
blacks were still in place during the Arberry trial.

A defense attorney stood up and asked for black pastors to be banned
from the courtroom. A Southern judge last century would probably have
granted that request, but today, the request is idiotic. Today, it
takes a Democrat attorney steeped in KKK hatred to try it.

Also, in closing arguments, the defense tried to appeal to the white
jurors by saying that Arberry was no victim, and that he was in the
neighborhood with "dirty khakis with no socks to cover his long dirty
toenails." This would certainly have worked with the Democrats in the
KKK in the last century, and would probably also have worked with many
Democrats steeped in KKK hatreds today, but instead it appears to have
badly backfired, even among the white Democrats on the jury.

These acts by the defense attorneys were typical of the KKK in the
last century, and they would have worked. They're less common today
because they frequently backfire, even among many Democrats. But it's
clear that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep in the Democrat
party. This dates back to the Civil War, and the fury that Democrats
felt that the Republicans under Abraham Lincoln freed the slaves and
won the war, causing the Democrats to create the KKK and the Jim Crow
laws, and spend the next century lynching and killing blacks, and
frequently using the epithet, "The South Shall Rise Again!"

In fact, Joe Biden grew up in that hate-filled atmosphere, with a
mentor of Democrat Party scion Robert Byrd, who was a Grand Cyclops in
the KKK and a recruiter for the KKK. If Joe Biden had been on the
Arberry jury, he might well have found the defendants innocent.
Robert Byrd would almost certainly have done so.

It's impossible to overstate what's going on - almost a resurgence of
the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the Democrat party. You have thousands of
blacks being killed in the streets of Chicago, LA, San Francisco,
Baltimore, and other cities run by Democrats. Killing blacks is just
as much the policy of Democrats today as it was in the last century.
That's not true of all Democrats, just as it wasn't true of all
Democrats in the last century, but it is true of a large segment of
the Democrat party today. And, unfortunately, that segment of the
Democrat party is now the loony left that is running the Democrat
party, and they appear to want to re-fight the Civil War, in the hope
of winning it this time and re-enslaving the blacks.

****
**** Kyle Rittenhouse and George Floyd
****

The evidence was overwhelming that Kyle Rittenhouse had fired only in
self defense, and so he was found innocent. So the court system
worked correctly.

Derek Chauvin was found guilty last year of murdering George Floyd.
So the court system worked correctly.

These are two more examples of how the court and jury system worked
correctly, so it makes no sense for the people on the loony left to
want to destroy the American court system by packing the Supreme Court
and by making every case about racial justice.

****
**** CNN commentary
****

On CNN, the Arberry commentary focused on the dog whistles and racial
baiting that we described earlier to get the white people in the jury
not to convict.

CNN commentary on the Rittenhouse verdict was apoplectic.

I saw the Jim Acosta show on CNN shortly after the Rittenhouse
verdict. Recall that Acosta made a jackass of himself every day
during the Trump administration by screaming stupid questions and
epithets at Trump during press conferences, but being a jackass only
made him a hero to the loony left, and made him a star at CNN.

The contrast between Fox News and CNN was enormous. Analysts on Fox
News almost universally said that finding Rittenhouse not guilty was
the correct verdict, based on the overwhelming evidence. But they
contrasted that to the event, which they said was a tragedy because
two people had been killed, and they said that Rittenhouse was not a
hero.

But Acosta was unable to distinguish between those two things --
finding innocence and not being a hero. What I've found is that many
people in general are unable to do fourth grade math or even second
grade math, to the extent of being baffled by fourth grade percentage
problems. AOC is a prime example of this, as she showed her stupidity
in that issue over the Amazon HQ issue in 2019. AOC is one of the
stupidest people in Washington, and the only people who are stupider
than she is are her millions of followers in the Democrat party.

It takes a certain grasp of logic to be able to do fourth grade math,
and people who can't do fourth grade math should not be expected to
distinguish between seeing Rittenhouse as not guilty and Rittenhouse
as some kind of hero. Even worse, you have to be really stupid not to
understand that a case where a white man shoots three white men is not
a racial issue. Acosta is clearly that stupid. CNN attracts
commentators who are too stupid to do fourth grade math. From what
I've seen, Fox News attracts commentators who are intelligent enough
to do fourth grade math.

CNN headquarters is in Atlanta, where the Arberry trial was held.
Atlanta is a hotbed of Democrat racists and idiots, which makes it the
perfect location for CNN. Nonetheless, the brilliant American jury
system, which is the best in the world and in the history of the
world, came to the correct verdict.

****
**** Loony left comments on the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict
****

Anyone who watched the Kyle Rittenhouse trial could see that the
innocence verdict was justified, but left-wing Democrat politicians
and journalists became hysterical, and called for the virtual
detruction of the American jury system. Many of the claims made in
the following quotes were lies, made by people who knew they were
lies, but who didn't care:

Mayor Bill de Blasio: "This verdict is disgusting and it sends a
horrible message to this country. Where is the justice in this? We
can't let this go. We need stronger laws to stop violent extremism
from within our own nation. Now is the time."

Joy Reid, MSNBC: We knew, but it’s sometimes helpful to remind
ourselves how America was designed to work. It continues to work as
designed. We have learned again what is considered legal for *some*
people to do in America. It’s helpful to know where you stand in your
country. Be safe out there.

Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes: "Over the last few weeks, many
dreaded the outcome we just witnessed. The presumption of innocence
until proven guilty is what we should expect from our judicial system,
but that standard is not always applied equally. We have seen so many
black and brown youth killed, only to be put on trial posthumously,
while the innocence of Kyle Rittenhouse was virtually demanded by the
judge."

NY Governor Kathy Hochul: "Kyle Rittenhouse used an assault weapon to
kill two people. This is not justice. If there was any question about
why we need strong gun safety laws, this is your answer. This should
never have been allowed to happen in the first place. We have a lot of
work to do."

Reverend Al Sharpton: "These continue to be dark days for black people
killed at the hands of people that believe our lives do not
matter. This verdict was not only outrageous and dangerous, it was
also an obvious signal that encourages and notifies "vigilantes" that
they can continue to use violence to assert their power, and more
importantly that they are above the criminal justice system when they
do. While it is disheartening that we take one step forward, then
several steps back, let this be a reminder that our activism cannot
take a backseat"

Eric Adams, NYC Mayor-elect: "This decision is an indictment of
irresponsible laws that make our society far more violent and unsafe
under the guise of personal freedom and so called self-defense. It
also sends an extremely dangerous message to those in our country who
seek agendas of anarchy - often born in prejudice and ignorance - to
wreak havoc in their communities and potentially murder their
neighbors. We should not be shocked. We should be focused on swift and
righteous action."

Jumaane Williams, NYC Public Advocate: "This trial and the verdict it
produced are clear and devastating representations of the way our
country and our legal system view innocence and guilt, vigilantes and
villains, race and the fight against racial injustice. A white
seventeen year old killing protesters with a weapon of war is
celebrated and acquitted. A black seventeen year old walking the
community with a bag of Skittles is criminalized and murdered.

Rep. Jerry Nadler: "This heartbreaking verdict is a miscarriage of
justice and sets a dangerous precedent which justifies federal review
by DOJ. Justice cannot tolerate armed persons crossing state lines
looking for trouble while people engage in First Amendment-protected
protest."

Nikole Hannah-Jones, NY Times: "In this country, you can even kill
white people and get away with it if those white people are fighting
for Black lives. This is the legacy of 1619."

George Takei, former Star Trek actor: "Justice denied is a body blow
to our national psyche. On trial was not only a killer, but a system
that continues to kill. Today that system defeated true justice, once
again. But mark these words: We will never stop fighting for what is
right and just."

****
**** Darryl Brooks
****

In the midst of all this, Darryl E. Brooks, a black male in late 30s,
killed six people and injured 60 others by running them over
intentionally with a car as they marched in the Christmas Parade in
Waukesha, Wisconsin, on Sunday.


Screen shot from video, just before Brooks' red SUV plows into parade marchers

Brooks had previously been out on bail after pimping out a 16 year old
girl who got pregnant, and for attempting to kill the mother of his
baby by running her over with his car, and almost succeeding in
killing her, and after numerous other felonies, dating back to 1999.
He was out on bail because of a "woke" District Attorney who was
following "woke" policies of not jailing convicted criminals. Brooks
was let out of jail, and he repeated the crime of killing people by
running over with this car, this time succeeding spectacularly.

Examination of Darryl Brooks's media posts shows him to be a man
filled with hatred for whites and women.


Darryl Brooks tweet: 'The old white ppl ... knock dem TF out!'

This reminds me of the e-mail messages found on Hunter Biden's laptop,
which showed similar hatred of blacks. Like father, like son.

Not surprisingly, CNN did not mention the Darryl Brooks case.

****
**** Lessons learned
****

The main lesson learned from all of these cases is that the brilliant
American jury system works. As everyone points out, there are reforms
to be made. In this case, there were many complaints about
prosecuters in both the Arberry and Rittenhouse cases. But the
American jury system, at its core, is the best for determining guilt
or innocense.

Another lesson to be learned is that racial hysteria doesn't always
work, and shouldn't work. Race hysteria was raised in all the cases
I've mentioned, and in the end, race didn't matter in any of them.

A third lesson to be learned is the importance of video evidence.
This is a relatively new development in jury trials, and it fits in
well with the American jury system, since it provides a new and very
powerful means for juries to assess what happened.

The fourth lesson is that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep
in the Democrat party. Unfortunately, this is evident in the policies
of Joe Biden and the Democrat party leadership. This is evident in
policies that lead to the deaths of thousands of blacks in
Democrat-run cities, and it's also evident in the drive for "Critical
Race Theory," whose purpose if to victimize and marginalize blacks, as
was done in the last century by the KKK and the Jim Crow Laws.

So we would have to agree that there's a lot of work to be done to
cure systemic racism, but that work has to be done almost exclusively
within the Democrat party, especially its leadership.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Sources:

• Jurors saw through the preposterous defense by Ahmaud Arbery's killers (CNN, 24-Nov-2021)
  
• EXCLUSIVE: 'The old white ppl ... knock dem TF out!' Waukesha suspect shared social media posts promoting violence towards white people and claiming black people were the 'true Hebrews' (Daily Mail, 23-Nov-2021)
  
• Reaction to the verdict in the Kyle Rittenhouse trial, found not (ABC News, 19-Nov-2021)
  
• 'Absolutely no words': Gabrielle Union, Megyn Kelly, more celebs react to Kyle Rittenhouse verdict (USA Today, 19-Nov-2021)

Related Articles:

• America and the standard Genocide Playbook (12-Jan-2021)
  
  
• Happy Juneteenth, everyone! (20-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ahmaud Arberry, Kyle Rittenhouse,
George Floyd, Darryl Brooks, CNN, Jim Acosta

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Beyond any question, Darryl Brooks is a very nasty person. Nasty people do horrible things.

*** 25-Dec-21 World View -- Merry Christmas! America plays Santa to keep Europe from freezing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy
  
• American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe
  
• Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy
  
• The outlook in Europe
  

****
**** Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy
****


Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Putin may next be planning to invade the seaports Mariupol and Berdyansk, in order to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea

Merry Christmas, everyone! There's peace in Europe right now, but we
don't know how long it will last.

The drama is growing on Russia's border with Ukraine, where Russia now
has over 120,000 troops, along with tanks and other military
equipment, apparently in preparation for an imminent invasion of
Ukraine. Vladimir Putin says that the US and Nato are to blame for
the hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with Ukraine, which
is typical of the garbage that comes out every time Putin opens his
mouth. Putin claims that there are no invasion plans, but Putin would
say that, no matter what his plans. Putin is following the exact same
playbook that he followed in 2014, when he illegally invaded eastern
Ukraine, and he illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, after claiming
he wouldn't do so.

However, there's a very interesting and amusing sub-plot to the
current drama, where American energy firms are playing Santa Claus to
keep Europe from freezing to death, despite the efforts of Grinch
Putin.

Starting last weekend, flows of natural gas from Russia into Europe
have been falling, depriving the Europeans of the natural gas needed
to heat their homes. By Tuesday, European gas prices had spiked 40%
to an all-time historic high. Freezing temperatures across Europe,
low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany all
combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records.

It's not known whether Russia capped gas flows because of a shortage
of gas in Russia, or because Putin wants to use extortion to force the
EU to accede to his demands on Ukraine.

Part of the geopolitical situation is that Putin wants Germany to
approve a new pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This is important
because much of Russia's gas flow to Europe currently comes through a
pipeline that passes through Ukraine, forcing Russia to pay
commissions to Ukraine. Once the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is approved,
then Russia can bypass Ukraine, and end the payments.

****
**** American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe
****

The situation has pushed European gas prices way above Asian prices,
and 14 times higher than prices in the US. As a result, a flotilla of
at least 30 LNG (liquified natural gas) tankers from American energy
firms have been or are being diverted from Asia to Europe.

As a result, gas prices in Europe fell over 20% on Friday. The fall
in gas prices was helped by forecasts of warmer weather on Friday
through Monday.

America's Santa Claus flotilla is expected to keep European gas
prices down for several weeks, but it's a temporary fix. By
summer, at the latest, gas prices are expected to spike once again.

****
**** Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy
****

Europe's energy problems are substantially exacerbated by the
climate change chaos going on in Europe, which is pitting
Germany and France against each other.

France is first in the world in its reliance on nuclear energy. But
France was forced to shut down two nuclear power plants last week,
because of potential safety faults. The shut down reactors accounted
for 10% of the nation's nuclear capacity, straining the nation's
power grids in the cold weather. This has led a desperate president
Emmanuel Macron to approve the firing up of six oil-fired power plants
on Tuesday morning.

Macron has previously stated his commitment to "green energy," meaning
wind and solar, and so many people were shocked last month when he
announced in a televised speech, "For the first time in decades
[France] will relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors."
Macron’s government argues that investments in nuclear power will
allow France to keep energy costs in check, while meeting its climate
goals.

Macron's announcement infuriated the anti-nuclear activists in
Germany. Germany has no such political disputes, because Germany is
producing energy by burning coal, flooding the atmosphere with
pollutants and emissions. Indeed, the country continues to raze
villages to make way for new coal mines.

Nuclear power plants produce "clean energy," with no carbon emissions,
but activists claim that they're too dangerous. However, pro-nuclear
activists point out that far more people die from air pollution in
Germany than could ever die from a nuclear power plant meltdown.

After the meltdown in 2011 of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in
Japan, Germany has banned further nuclear development. Germany,
Denmark and Austria are fiercely opposed to any further building of
nuclear-power plants, or of designating nuclear energy as
"climate-friendly."

****
**** The outlook in Europe
****

America's Santa Claus flotilla of LNG tankers may keep the
Europeans from freezing this winter. At least, the LNG shipments
will help keep gas prices down so that Europeans can afford
to heat their homes.

But the big question in Europe is Putin's apparent plans to invade
Ukraine. He claims that he has no plans to do so, but he would say
that no matter what he plans, and he keeps massing more and more
troops and military equipment on the border.

So it would be quite surprising if Europe got through the
next few months unscathed.

Sources:/

• Europe’s Gas Prices Jump To Record As Key Pipeline From Russia Halts Flows (OilPrice.com, 24-Dec-2021)
  
• U.S. LNG Cargoes Flock To Europe Amid Record-High Gas Prices (OilPrice.com, 23-Dec-2021)
  
• A Flotilla of U.S. LNG Cargoes Is Headed to Fuel-Starved Europe (Bloomberg, 22-Dec-2021)
  
• EUROPE GAS-Prices extend downward trend on warmer weather, LNG arrivals (Reuters, 24-Dec-2021)
  
• EUROPE GAS-Prices dip on LNG supply boost, warmer temperatures (Hellenic Shipping News, 24-Dec-2021)
  
• Macron faces dire situation as Belgium blindsides France and shuts all nuclear plants (Express, London, 24-Dec-2021)
  
• Macron 'struggles to keep lights on' as France turns back on green energy in desperate bid (Express, London, 22-Dec-2021)
  
• Is nuclear energy green? France and Germany lead opposing camps. (Washington Post, 18-Dec-2021)
  
• Germany portrays itself as a climate leader. But it’s still razing villages for coal mines. (Washington Post, 23-Oct-2021)

Related Articles:

• Russia launches its massive disinformation campaign (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia (12-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
Santa Claus, Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Germany,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Japan, Fukushima,
Denmark, Austria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

I would say that restriction of natural gas is a warning-"Don't interfere in Russia's plan for Ukraine."

And, of course, not to interfere in Russia's geopolitical plans in general.

Reminds me of the recent move by France to with hold electricity from the Brits. As well as the OPEC oil embargo.

I won't be surprised if we see more of these tactics in the years to come.

*** 8-Jan-22 World View -- Kazakhstan protests threaten Russia-China stability in Central Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning
  
• Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan
  
• China versus Russia
  

****
**** Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning
****


Kazakhstan map (BBC)

Protests began in western Kazakhstan over the weekend, and were
triggered by the removal of government fuel subsidies and the
resulting price rises. However, the protests spread quickly, across
the country and over numerous other issues related to government
corruption. The result is the worst riots since the country became
independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union Empire in 1991.

Kazakhstan was ruled since independence by a dictator, ex-president
Nursultan Nazarbayev, who selected his successor, Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev, in 2019. Nazarbayev has remained head of the country's
Security Council after stepping down as president in 2019. Both
Nazarbayev and Tokayev were and are unpopular and thought to be
corrupt. There were widespread anti-government farmer riots in 2016
when the government announced a "land reform" program that would have
permitted China's agriculture businesses to buy up huge tracts of
Kazakh land. Because of the protests, the "reforms" were never
implemented. (See "22-May-16 World View -- Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China"
)

In the last week, protesters have attacked a military barracks, and
also brought down a monument of the former president Nazarbayev. The
2016 protests were brutally oppressed by Nazarbayev, and now the new
protests, which are far more widespread and dangerous, are being
suppressed by Tokayev, who has issued a "shoot to kill without
warning" order to the police. Dozens of people have already been
killed.

****
**** Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan
****

President Tokayev has declared a state of emergency, and has shut down
the internet and other communications.

At the invitation of president Tokayev, Russian troops are now
entering Kazakhstan to help quell the protests. It's not clear what
these troops will do in a country as enormous as Kazakhstan, but
presumably they'll concentrate on Almaty, the largest city.

It's not just Russian troops. Tokayev made the request through the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led
military alliance which was formed in the 1990s as a counterweight to
Nato. This is the first time that the CSTO is deploying troops on
foreign soil since the organization was formed. So there are now
troops from five foreign countries on Kazakh soil: Russia, Belarus,
Armenia, Tajijistan and Kyrgyzstan.

According to the CSTO charter, one CSTO member may send troops to
another member country only in the case of "foreign interference." No
details of this "foreign interference" have been provided, but I heard
one report that both Russian and Kazakh officials are blaming "Muslim
jihadist terrorists," without providing evidence.

According to several reports that I've heard, this deployment of
foreign troops is not very popular with anyone.

Many Kazakhs are opposed to any foreign troops on their soil. The
Armenians are really furious that Russia didn't help them out in the
Nagorno-Karabakh war with Azerbaijan, and now Armenian troops are
being deployed to Kazakhstan. The Tajiks are unhappy with the
deployment of their soldiers, and the Kyrgyzstan government is so
concerned about the situation that they've closed their border with
Kazakhstan.

There is one region of Kazakhstan that's certain to be under the
protection of Russian troops, and that's the city of Baikonur which is
the home of Baikonur spaceport. All Russian space flights are
launched from Baikonur spaceport. According to Dmitry Rogozin, the
head of the Russian state space agency, "Today it was calm at
Baikonur. The branches of Roscosmos’ enterprises, law enforcement
agencies, city services and organizations are working as normal. The
crisis center set up at Baikonur’s administration is fully controlling
the situation in the city. Armed security at the cosmodrome’s key
facilities has been boosted."

While all this is going on in Kazakhstan, Russia is also continuing
its buildup of troops along the border of Ukraine. Will Russia invade
Ukraine again this month? We'll have to wait and see.

****
**** China versus Russia
****

Kazakhstan is a mostly Sunni Muslim country, with Kazakhs having the
same Turkic ethnicity as the Turks, the Azerbaijanis, and the Chinese
Uighurs. Kazakhs in China's Xinjiang province (East Turkestan) are
subjected to the same torture, beatings, sterilization and enslavement
as the Uighurs. Kazakhstan is a kind of poster-child for China's use
of money to gain compliance for the worst atrocities since the Nazis
in the 1930s. Kazakhstan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni
Muslim countries are simply ignoring China's torture and enslavement
of their Turkic brothers, because China is bribing them to do so.

Nonetheless, it's hard to escape the view that Russian troops in
Kazakhstan are less about unnamed Muslim jihadists and more about
China. Kazakhstan is rich in oil, gas, copper, and other commodities,
and China has invested billions of dollars since independence to buy
them.

Furthermore, as I've described in the past, China has 20 border
disputes with its neighbors. This includes claiming 34,000 sq km of
Kazakhstan's territory, and also claiming much of Russia's Far East,
including Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, (See "5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements"
)

As I've described many times, Russia and China are historic enemies,
at war most recently in the 1960s. They currently have a kind of
"marriage of convenience" in opposition to the United States and West,
who oppose their respective threatened invasions of Ukraine and
Taiwan.

But it won't be long before the historic differences turn to new
disagreements and war. Russia's sending troops into Kazakhstan, with
little or no information about their mission, may well be first step
in that development.

Sources:

• CSTO Deploys to Kazakhstan at Tokayev’s Request (The Diplomat, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• The Consequences Of Inviting Russian-Led CSTO Troops Into Kazakhstan (Rferl, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• CSTO agrees to intervene in Kazakhstan unrest (Eurasianet, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Armenians take dim view of deployment to Kazakhstan (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan: Shoot to kill protesters, orders tough-talking Tokayev (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• What does China make of the Kazakhstan unrest? (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• Kyrgyzstan sends troops to Kazakhstan, but not everybody is happy (Eurasianet, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• CSTO to send peacekeeping troops to help quell unrest in Kazakhstan (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Mandatory Vaccinations: A Key Under Reported Reason For The Revolt In Kazakhstan (Red Pill Reality, 5-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan unrest: Dozens killed in crackdown (BBC, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan unrest: Troops ordered to fire without warning (BBC, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakh president: Forces can shoot to kill to quell unrest (AP, 7-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan unrest: what are the protests about? (Guardian, London, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan unrest latest updates: Russia-led troops arrive (Al-Jazeera, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Anti-China protests / Land Protests Testify to Kazakhstan’s Internal Vulnerability (Jamestown, 16-May-2016)
  
• Security at Baikonur spaceport’s key facilities tightened, Roscosmos chief says (Tass, Moscow, 5-Jan-2022)
  
• How Kazakhstan could shift Putin’s calculus on Ukraine (Atlantic Council, 6-Jan-2022)
  
• Kazakhstan / The Coming Russian-Chinese Clash (National Interest, 21-Aug-2020)

Related Articles:

• Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China (22-May-2016)
  
  
• Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive (07-Jul-2021)
  
  
• US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability (03-May-2021)
  
  
• India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements (05-Jul-2020)
  
  
• Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers' (25-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan (28-Apr-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Almaty,
Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,
China, Russia, Soviet Union,
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan,
Baikonur spaceport, Ukraine, Turkey, Vladivostok

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

During the Iranian Revolution President Carter warned Shah Reza Pahlavi that, whatever he did, he was to never order any violent attacks upon peaceful protesters. In 1989, the Romanian Revolution became a trap for Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu because they gave the Securitate (secret police) and the Romanian Army orders to shoot to kill. The Army turned against the Securitate and effectively cleared the streets for peaceful protesters. Meanwhile neighboring states (including the Soviet Union) closed escape routes for the Ceausescus. Supposedly they were headed to Iran, but that had three problems for them. First, their plane was overloaded, so had it gotten out of Romania it would have likely crashed into the Black Sea. Well, at least their loot was saved. Second, they would have been arrested in Turkey, one country they would have to get through to get through Iran if they wanted to stay clear of the Soviet Union, and they would have been returned to Romania for judgment. Third, the Soviet Union would have arrested them and returned them to Romania for judgment.

One gets at most a few days of spurious safety for having the troops and secret police shooting peaceful protesters. Most likely either the troops turn on one. When the revolution has the Army on its side, the revolution is over.

** 09-Jan-2022 World View: Kazakhstan: Never waste a crisis and Follow the money

• Monuments to Nazarbayev are targeted by violent protesters

When I wrote my article on Kazakhstan, one of the great mysteries was
Vladimir Putin's warp speed response to the request by Kazakh
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, through CSTO, for Russian troops.
Putin okayed the request with lightning speed and, before you knew it,
some 3,500 troops mostly from Russia but also from Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia, were pouring into Kazakhstan. The
request was justified by claims of terrorism sponsored by an unnamed
foreign country.

But there were many unanswered questions. What was the unnamed
country? What was the urgency in responding to the request -- which,
incidentally, was unprecedented -- when normally a similar request
would take days or weeks of negotiations? Since the nationwide
protests were obviously organic, and the country is enormous, what was
the mission of the 3,500 troops?

Some, but not all, of those questions are now being answered. The
nationwide protests were triggered by ending fuel subsidies and
resulting increases in fuel prices. The protests spread and became
increasingly violent and destructive, creating a crisis. I have not
seen any reports that say that the fuel subsidies were ended with the
purpose of causing violent protests and a crisis, or whether the
protests were an unintended consequence.

So apparently the saying "Never let a crisis go to waste" is coming
into play. The supporters of Nursultan Nazarbayev. the former
president, are apparently being accused of using the protest crisis as
a means to engineer a coup, and bring them back to power in some form.

This resulted in the subsequent actions. Tokayev fired Nazarbayev
from his remaining government role, chairman of the security council,
and he fired Karim Masimov, a Nazarbayev loyalist, from his position
as head of security services, accusing Masimov of treason.

That's the context in which the Russian-led CSTO forces poured into
Kazakhstan. They were there to make sure that Tokayev remained in
power, and was not brought down by a coup. They are also there to
guarantee that Vladimir Putin has a great deal to say in what the
government of Kazakhstan does in the future.

So Putin may not be able to re-create the old Soviet Empire, but he's
doing what he can in Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to pull
pieces of it back together when possible.

Another angle to this story is to "Follow the money!" Many members of
Nazarbayev's family, and many of his business cronies, have become
billionaires as a result of Nazarbayev's 30 year dictatorship. Many
of last week's violent protests were directed specifically at
Nazarbayev and his family and cronies for 30 years of corruption.
Members of Nazarbayev's family apparently have extensive property
holdings in Britain. Indeed, there are reports that Nazerbayev’s
daughter Nazarbayeva and her son are the owners of 221b Baker Street,
the fictional home of the character Sherlock Holmes.

So this story is far from over. Russian troops are now "protecting"
president Tokayev and his ministers, and Putin may be partially
running the country, but the fate of Nazarbayev's billionaires has yet
to be decided.

A word about American involvement. Whenever anything happens anywhere
in the world, many people assume that it's because the American
administration did something, or didn't do something, or said
something, or didn't say something. In this case, even the Chinese
press blamed American involvement for the protests. In fact, many,
many, many things, good and bad, go on in the world, driven by people
living their own lives day to day, who couldn't care less what the
American president said or did. I've written about this many times in
the past. Blaming America for everything may feel good, but it rarely
makes sense.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, most things happen in
the world because of generational changes, ethnic differences, class
differences, jealousy, passion, or sociopathy, no matter what America
does.

In this case, fuel subsidies were reduced, fuel prices rose, there
were protests, the protests spread across the country and encompassed
other issues, especially the corruption of the Nazarbayev family,
leading to threats of a coup. and Russian intervention. The American
administration had nothing to do with this, and could not have
engineered it with anything but a magic wand.

** 8-Jan-22 World View -- Kazakhstan protests threaten Russia-China stability in Central Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e220108


**** Sources:

-- Kazakhstan / Nursultan Nazarbayev | The ‘old man’ and the unrest
https://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio...193186.ece
(The Hindu, 9-Jan-2022)

-- Kazakhstan: Ex-security services chief and Nazarbayev ally arrested
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-ex-sec...y-arrested
(Eurasianet, 8-Jan-2022)

-- Kazakhstan’s Tycoons–Including Members Of Nazarbayev Family–Shed
Billions As Stocks Plunge
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkin...ks-plunge/
(Forbes, 7-Jan-2022)

-- Kazakhstan explainer: Who’s in, who’s out as Tokayev tries to take
back control?
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-explai...ck-control
(Eurasianet, 6-Jan-2022)

*** 19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
  
• Iran's support for the Houthis
  
• The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE
  

****
**** Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
****


Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters)

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday evening attacked
targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including airports in Dubai
and in an oil refinery in Musaffah, as well as "a number of important
and sensitive Emirati sites and facilities," with five missiles and a
number of drones. Three people were killed.

Early on Tuesday, warplanes from Saudi Arabia, UAE's coalition
partner, attacked Houthi camps and strongholds in Sanaa, Yemen's
capital city, including he home of a high-ranking Houthi military
official, including his wife and son. About 20 people were killed,
according to the Houthis.

The Yemen war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took
control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international
airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by
Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets.

The war escalated substantially in November 2017, when the
Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran,
that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about
800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own
escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports.

The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then
in June 2018, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on the highly strategic Port Hodeidah in Yemen.
The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian
weapons to the Houthis, as well as a source of income.

The battle over Port Hodeidah continued for years, until November
2021, when the Houthis scored a complete takeover of the port,
marking an important turning point in the war. Tuesday's Houthi
attack on the UAE targets with drones and missiles marks another
turning point.

****
**** Iran's support for the Houthis
****

Since the Yemen war began in 2015, it's been seen as largely a proxy
war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. In the wars between
Sunnis and Shias the following the death of the prophet Mohammed, one
Shia sect was known as the Saydis or "fivers," because of their
allegiance to the fifth Imam descendant. Most Shias, including the
Persians, had allegiance to the twelth Imam descendant, and so they
are sometimes called "twelvers." The Zaydis have become today's
Houthis. Despite this theological dispute, the fivers and the
twelvers identify with each other as not-Sunni Shias, and so the
Iranians are supporting the Houthis in Yemen in a proxy war against
the Arab Sunnis. (See my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy," for the history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.)

Iran is denying that they've had anything to do with Tuesday's
attack by the Houthis on the UAE. However, this claim has
little credibility since the Houthis have no ability to develop
and manufacture the drones and missiles that were used in the
attack.

It seems likely that the Houthis' recent takeover of Port Hodeidah has
enabled the Houthi attack, because Iran can use the port to smuggle
drones and missiles and other weapons to the Houthis. Two weeks ago,
a UN group announced that it would be investigating whether the port
has been militarized

According to Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen:

<QUOTE>"The accusations of the militarization of the ports of
Hodeidah are worrying and the threats of attacking them are
equally disturbing given that these ports are a lifeline for many
Yemenis. [The UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement was]
closely monitoring the situation in the ports and has requested
as part of its mandate to undertake an inspection."<END QUOTE>

Well, we can hardly wait until the UN report comes out. These
UN committees always produce useful results, don't they.

****
**** The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE
****

What is the purpose of the Houthi attack on UAE targets? Here
are some possibilities:

• The Houthis are drunk on their success with the takeover
  of the Hodeidah Port, and they may think that with Iran's backing they can
  defeat the Saudis and Emiratis, just as the Japanese thought
  they could defeat the Americans in 1941.
  
  
• Iran has been holding "peace talks" separately with Saudi Arabia
  and UAE, and the Houthis may wish to sabotage those talks.
  
  
• Iran may wish to send a message that it wants America and
  the West to end the sanctions on Iran.

Each one of these objectives is likely to backfire.

Houthi Yemeni military expert Brigadier-General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi
was interviewd on Monday by Russia Today TV, and said the
following:

<QUOTE>"We sent a message [with the Abu Dhabi drone
strike], and the UAE should take this message seriously. The UAE is
not like Saudi Arabia, which is bigger in size, and which can perhaps,
take the hit and absorb the shock. The UAE is a country made of
cardboard and glass. ...

The second thing is that we hope to receive Iranian weapons, and
to have Iranian experts with us. [Our enemies] have Zionist
experts, as well as American and French experts, They have
gathered all of the world's vagabonds in their command center and
in the battlefield. ...

We have the power, the will, and the determination to strike in
the UAE and in Saudi Arabia. If it turns out that the Americans
attacked in Yemen, or if they declare that they did, we will
target the American interests wherever they may be. Wherever they
may be!"<END QUOTE>

Right now, there's a bit of a lull, as both the UAE and the Houthis
decide what to do next. If this is as much of a turning point
as it seems, then we should see some additional military reactions
soon.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there
is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis"
of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major
new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of
1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part
of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus
Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

Sources:

• UAE vows retaliation for Houthi-claimed attack, but questions emerge over potential Iran role (CNBC, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Saudi coalition strikes Houthis after drone attack on UAE (Jerusalem Post, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Saudi-led coalition targets Houthi rebels in Yemen after Abu Dhabi attack (The Hill, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Oil hits seven-year high as Houthi attack on UAE rattles regional tensions (CNBC, 17-Jan-2022)
  
• Saudis hit back with deadly airstrikes in Yemen after Houthis’ UAE drone attack (Guardian, London, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• How the world reacted to the Houthi attack on UAE (Al-Jazeera, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Houthi drone attacks expose UAE vulnerabilities, say analysts (Al-Jazeera, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Houthi Military Expert Brig.-Gen. Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi: The UAE Is A Country Made Of Cardboard And Glass, It Should Take The Abu Dhabi Drone Strike Seriously; If The U.S. Carries Out Any Attacks In Yemen, We Will Target Its Interests Wherever They May Be (Memri, 18-Jan-2022)
  
• Yemen: UN calls for talks on Houthi takeover of Hodeidah port (Guardian, London, 15-Nov-2021)
  
• Coalition in Yemen welcomes UN decision to inspect Hodeidah (Arab News, 13-Jan-2022)
  
• Former Palestinian Minister: The West Bank Is In Complete Chaos; Palestinian Authority Has Failed To Build Properly Governed Lawful State (Memri, 18-Jan-2022)

Related Articles:

• Ceasefire in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen war holds on the first day (19-Dec-2018)
  
  
• The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war (08-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• UAE troops and tanks deployed to Yemen's Socotra island in dispute with Saudi Arabia (05-May-2018)
  
  
• Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden (29-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Port Hodeidah, Zaydis, Fivers, Twelvers,
Hans Grundberg, Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe