Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(04-20-2018, 07:46 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism.

If the US is going to save Cuba?  

Cuba is in better shape than Puerto Rico.

(04-20-2018, 11:52 AM)Another Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-20-2018, 07:46 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism.

If the US is going to save Cuba?  

Cuba is in better shape than Puerto Rico.

GDP per capita Puerto Rico:  $26k/year.  GDP per capita Cuba:  $7k/year.

Also, you might want actually to read John's last post on this issue to understand the discussion.

(04-20-2018, 02:37 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-20-2018, 11:52 AM)Another Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-20-2018, 07:46 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism.

If the US is going to save Cuba?  

Cuba is in better shape than Puerto Rico.

GDP per capita Puerto Rico:  $26k/year.  GDP per capita Cuba:  $7k/year.

Also, you might want actually to read John's last post on this issue to understand the discussion.

There's nothing I didn't understand about John's last post.  

I think GDP per capita is a poor way to measure the well being of a territory that has not recovered from a Hurricane from 1/2 a year ago.  Americans not caring is why these US citizens are struggling so much.  

My snark about Puerto Rico aside, I agree that Cuba should be on its own without major reforms.  Even if Cuba did reform, I'd prefer to focus on Puerto Rico (and Flint).

(04-20-2018, 07:46 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism.

I hope for the Cubans' sake we don't (((save))) it the way we've "saved" these places.
Besides, why should we care if Cuba has socialism?  Cuba's economic model has more of a future than US crony capitalism.

*** 21-Apr-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse
  
• Will China or Russia save Venezuela?
  

****
**** Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse
****


Oil tank labeled 'PDVSA - Homeland, Socialism or Death' (PanamPost)

Socialist Venezuela's state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela
S.A. (PDVSA) is close to collapse, beset with an ever-growing array of
new and growing problems.

Venezuela's oil refineries worked at 31% of their in the first quarter
in 2018, well below 2017 levels. Venezuela has not seen such low
levels of oil production since the 1980s. Average oil production
declined dramatically over the past two years, by 12% in 2016 and
again by 13% in 2017. Production in December 2017 was 27% lower than a
year earlier.

Late last year, Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro
appointed a military man, Major General Manuel Quevedo, head of PDVSA,
with a mandate to increase production and rid the company of
corruption. Quevedo and his team of military officers had no
experience in the oil industry, and replaced long-time experienced
employees with soldiers. According to an executive, "The military
guys arrive calling the engineers thieves and saboteurs."

There has been a stampede of PDVSA workers resigning from the company.
Already, 25,000 of the company's 146,000 employees resigned in 2017,
and the exodus has accelerated in 2018, as General Quevedo "quickly
alienated the firm’s embattled upper echelon and its rank-and-file,"
according to union leaders. Many of those leaving now are engineers,
managers, or lawyers, professionals that are almost impossible to
replace. Some offices now have lines outside with dozens of workers
waiting to resign, and there have been so many resignations that some
offices are refusing to accept any more of them.

The loss of all these workers is one of the causes of the fall in
production, and also the inability of the company to properly maintain
its equipment. Many drilling rigs work only intermittently for lack
of crews, and several small fires have broken out because there are no
longer enough supervisors.

The apparent oil industry collapse is a major factor in Venezuela's
economic deback. More than 90% of the country's hard currency is
obtained through oil exports. The country is also suffering the worst
economic depression ever recorded in Latin America. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates gross domestic product (GDP) contracted
by 16.5 percent in 2016 and 12 percent in 2017, and forecasts a 15
percent contraction for 2018. Inflation reached more than 2,600
percent in 2017, the highest in the world by a wide margin, and the
IMF forecasts 13,000 percent for 2018.
Curaçao Chronicle
and OilPrice
and Reuters

****
**** Will China or Russia save Venezuela?
****

Only China and Russia can provide Venezuela with enough money to keep
it from going into full-blown default, but it's doubtful that they
will. However, Russia has been purchasing Venezuelan oil fields in
exchange for loans, extending Russian influence in Venezuela. The
Soviet Union propped up Cuba's economy for decades, but it seems
unlikely that Russia will do the same for Venezuela, which is several
times larger and more expensive than Cuba.

It's worth repeating that this disaster is the fault of Socialism. As
I discussed in my article yesterday on Cuba's Socialism,
Socialism has a 100% failure rate. Socialism
killed hundreds of millions of people during the twentieth century,
far more than Naziism killed, and now it's destroying Venezuela.

Cuba seems to be stepping back from the brink, having implemented
a few reforms, though there's still a very long way to go.
But Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro refuses to implement
any reforms at all, and seems willing to destroy Venezuela
for his own benefit.
Atlantic Council (PDF)
and Bloomberg
and Council on Foreign Relations

Related articles:

• Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution (20-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Colombia and Brazil close borders with Venezuela amid talk of possible military intervention (14-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Russia considers taking on a huge financial burden - Venezuela (05-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., PDVSA,
Nicolás Maduro, Manuel Quevedo, China, Russia

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*** 22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea promised to denuclearize in 2008, and proved its sincerity
  
• North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
  

****
**** North Korea promised to denuclearize in 2008, and proved its sincerity
****


This picture of the destruction of the nuclear reactor cooling tower in North Korea in 2008 went viral (AP)

In 2008, the North Koreans committed to denuclearization, and to prove
it, they blew up a nuclear reactor cooling tower. The reaction from
the West was euphoric. North Korea was taken off the international
terror list, and many sanctions were immediately removed.

Here's an AP news story from June 27, 2008:

<QUOTE>"North Korea destroyed the most visible symbol of its
nuclear weapons program today, blasting apart the cooling tower at
its main atomic reactor. ...

The demolition of the 60-foot-tall cooling tower at the North's
main reactor complex is a response to America's concessions after
the North delivered a declaration yesterday of its nuclear
programs to be dismantled.

"This is a very important step in the disablement process and I
think it puts us in a good position to move into the next phase,"
the U.S. State Department's top expert on the Koreas, Sung Kim,
who attended the demolition, said. Kim shook hands with a North
Korean official following the tower's tumble to the ground.

In its first reaction to the developments this week, North Korea's
Foreign Ministry welcomed Washington's decision to take the
country off the U.S. trade and sanctions blacklists.

"The U.S. measure should lead to a complete and all-out withdrawal
of its hostile policy toward (the North) so that the
denuclearization process can proceed smoothly," the ministry said
in a statement carried by the official (North) Korean Central News
Agency.<END QUOTE>

It was all very sweet and friendly, except that North Korea kept on
secretly developing nuclear weapons, and a year later started testing
again. The North Korean promises were completely meaningless, but
they got major concessions that remained for years. AP (27-June-2008)

****
**** North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
****

In what some analysts are calling a "dramatic about-face,"
North Korea promised on Saturday to end all nuclear and missile
tests and shut down a nuclear test site. Instead, the country
will pursue economic growth and a "strong Socialist economy."

According to the (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA):

<QUOTE>"[U]nder the proven condition of complete nuclear
weapons, we no longer need any nuclear tests, mid-range and
intercontinental ballistic rocket tests, and that the nuclear test
site in northern area has also completed its mission. ...

To secure transparency on the suspension of nuclear tests, we will
close the republic's northern nuclear test site.

Nuclear development has proceeded scientifically and in due order
and the development of the delivery strike means also proceeded
scientifically and verified the completion of nuclear weapons.

We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of
intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles and
because of this, the northern nuclear test site has finished its
mission. ...

We will concentrate all efforts on building a powerful socialist
economy and markedly improving the standard of people’s living
through the mobilization of all human and material resources of
the country,"<END QUOTE>

I am totally incapable of figuring out why anyone would think that
this is some sort of about-face or breakthrough. In fact, this is a
statement of the West's worst nightmare.

North Korea will stop nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing,
but will keep their existing weapons, and will continue development
without open testing.. In the past, the North Koreans have said that
they will manufacture an arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles. Furthermore, North Korea has sold chemical weapons
technology to Syria and other countries, and will do the same with
nuclear technology.

There is no mention of North Korean "denuclearization." Instead, the
statement elsewhere says "(It's an) important process for global
nuclear disarmament," meaning that North Korea will happily
denuclearize of the rest of the world denuclearizes.

In January, the North announced that all there would be no testing
during the Winter Olympics games being held in Seoul. So this
new announcement is just an extension and repetition of the previous
one.

I've heard a couple of analysts claim that this announcement
is extremely significant because the North didn't have to do it,
and the fact that they did do it proves that they're sincere.

However, three days ago, president Donald Trump said this,
in reference to his planned meeting with North Korea's
child dictator Kim Jong-un:

<QUOTE>"I hope to have a very successful meeting. If I think
it's a meeting that is not going to be fruitful, we are not going
to go. If the meeting, when I'm there, is not fruitful, I will
respectfully leave the meeting."<END QUOTE>

So it's possible that North Korean officials decided to make
Saturday's announcement in response to Trump's remarks. From the
North's point of view, Trump's meeting with Kim will send the
following message to the world: North Korea is an advanced nuclear
power, and is an equal to the United States.

Trump and South Korea are demanding that North Korea "denuclearize,"
which means that the North give up all its weapons. This is never
going to happen without a war. The North has been building nuclear
weapons for decades, and they will not stop now just when they are
finally building their arsenal.

Really, the situation hasn't changed since the beginning of the year:
Either North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear weapons and
ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, as well as Asian
targets that include Japan, or else the US will have to launch a
military strike to take out North Korea's nuclear capabilities, if
such a strike is even possible. Korea Herald
and BBC and
CNN and Korea Times

Related Articles:

• South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, denuclearization, Syria

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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At least we didn't have to make any concessions to get the lack of concession this time.

We'll see what happens. To me the most hopeful sign is the strong implication by Chinese sources that North Korea will denuclearize. I doubt they're quite as easy to fool as the western press.

North Korea has recognized that their bluff has been called, therefore they are backing down.

(04-21-2018, 10:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]At least we didn't have to make any concessions to get the lack of concession this time.

We'll see what happens.  To me the most hopeful sign is the strong implication by Chinese sources that North Korea will denuclearize.  I doubt they're quite as easy to fool as the western press.

Chinese media are close to the political leadership -- or else. The Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China both agree on the desirability of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. Don't fool yourself: even if the People's Republic of China is a nuclear power, it has much the same dread of a third-rate military power under capricious or evil leadership getting a nuke as did the Soviet Union -- explaining why the Soviet Union could turn so quickly on Saddam Hussein once he invaded Kuwait.

The message from China is surely 'Get rid of that nuclear program or else!'

As Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has explained in his YouTube videos, and written about, there is a problem with Venezuelan crude. This "sludge" is so thick-the consistency of toothpaste-and "sour" that only a handful of refineries can handle it.

Almost all of the suitable refineries are on the U.S. Gulf Coast. And they are, or have been, converted to process shale crude. One other possibility is Trinidad and Tobago.

To summarize, the Venezuelan oil industry is in danger of having no customers.

Maduro would likely be overthrown or else Venezuela would degenerate into civil war. Whatever happens there, events would be driven by the mass opinions and passions of the Venezuelan people and political factions. In the west this is not the case, because globalists have implemented tyranny and have freezed the immediate post-cold war system in place. Under boomer globalists the system essentially is "you can participate and your actions would be allowed have political effects as long as you agree the current system is the best thing ever" anyone who disagree with current fundamentals is effectively disenfranchised and are considered "defective" people who are to be politically ignored. THAT is what makes the current system tyranny.

There are lots of oil countries without freedom. I'm not sure why I'm supposed to get worked up about Venezuela. Is it because they won't play ball with American oil companies?

*** 23-Apr-18 World View -- ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suicide bomber in Kabul, Afghanistan, kills over 50 registering to vote
  
• ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K) becomes more prominent in South Asia
  

****
**** Suicide bomber in Kabul, Afghanistan, kills over 50 registering to vote
****


Clothes and shoes are seen at the site of a suicide bomb attack in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Sunday. The items were placed in a row for the victims' families to claim afterwards. (Getty)

A massive suicide bombing on Sunday struck a voter registration office
in Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. More than 50 people were
killed, including women and children, while over 100 others were
injured.

The voter registration office is one of dozens that the Independent
Election Commission (IEC) has set up across the country to register
voters for the national elections in October. As of Saturday,
the voter registration process had been in process for seven
days, but turnout had been disappointing low. Only 189,061
people, including just over 42,000 women, had registered to
vote as of Saturday.

People were afraid to vote for fear of violence by jihadists,
even though the IEC and the army had been reassuring the public
that all the voter registration offices would be secure.

There had been several small jihadist attacks on the centers across
the country in the last week, but the attack on Sunday of the
registration center in Kabul was the most devastating attack in Kabul
since January, when about 100 people were killed by a bomb
concealed in an ambulance.

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
credit for the Kabul bombing through its Amaq public relations agency.

Sunday's attack targeted an area of western Kabul inhabited by many
members of the mainly Shia ethnic Hazara community, who were part of
the Northern Alliance that fought against the Pashtuns (Taliban) in
the civil war of 1991-96.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic
Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a
generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is
coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the
atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for
revenge.

So Sunday's attack has multiple purposes. First, it targets Shia
Muslims who Sunni jihadists say are infidel. Second, it targets the
hated Hazaras, in revenge for actions take in the 1990s civil war.
And third, it cripples the registration effort, and makes it far less
likely that there will be an election that brings Hazaras to power.

As I've written many times in the past, there is no possibility
whatsoever that these attacks will stop, through negotiations or
American or Afghan military action. To the contrary, they will get
worse, as new young Pashtuns come of age and decide to get revenge
against the Hazaras. Tolo News (Kabul) and CBS News and Long War Journal and Tolo News and Reuters




****
**** ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K) becomes more prominent in South Asia
****

The group taking credit for Sunday's attack is ISIS-K, or "ISIS
Khorasan" ("Wilayah Khorasan") or ISKP, the South Asian branch of
ISIS, claiming parts of Iran, three Central Asian republics,
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Kashmir and Xinjiang in western China.

Since 2014, some Taliban groups in Afghanistan have been changing
their allegiance from al-Qaeda to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
mainly for public relations purposes.

However, with the loss in Syria and Iraq of most the territory
formerly controlled by ISIS, many of the tens of thousands of
jihadists who came from over 80 countries to join ISIS and
fight Syria's president Bashar al-Assad are now returning to
the home countries. In the case of Afghanistan, it means
that some of the Pashtuns that left home to join ISIS in
Syria are now battle-hardened, and are returning to Afghanistan
and joining existing jihadist Taliban groups that have
sworn allegiance to ISIS.

Up until the last few months, the ISIS-K groups in Afghanistan had no
real connection to the ISIS in Syria. But with the influx of fighters
from Syria returning home, ISIS-K is becoming a more serious threat to
Afghanistan, and there will be further attacks. Long War Journal (21-Mar) and Diplomat and Business Insider (11-Feb)

Related Articles

• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects (24-Mar-2018)
  
  
• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Independent Election Commission, IEC,
Kabul, Amaq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazars, Uzbeks,
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 24-Apr-18 World View -- Number of Israeli 'price tag' hate crime attacks by radical Jewish settlers surges

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Number of Israeli 'price tag' hate crime attacks by radical Jewish settlers surges
  
• Hilltop youth from Yitzhar settlement considered the epicenter of 'price tag' attacks
  

****
**** Number of Israeli 'price tag' hate crime attacks by radical Jewish settlers surges
****


An imam at the Sa'ada Mosque Aqraba looks at the damage from a price-tag arson attack on April 13. Graffiti messages included 'death,' 'revenge' and 'price tag.' (Times of Israel)

In recent weeks, there has been a surge in "price tag" attacks by
young ultra-nationalist Israeli Jews on Palestinians in the West Bank,
as many in April alone as there were in all of 2017. These price tag
attacks are considered by Shin Bet, Israel's security agency, as being
terrorist activities, and are condemned by all political parties.

“Price tag” refers to terrorism and other hate crimes carried out by
Jewish ultra-nationalists ostensibly in retaliation for Palestinian
violence or government policies perceived as hostile to the settler
movement. The attacks are usually on Palestinians and their property,
but they're also frequently targeted on Christians, Israeli peace
activists and soldiers, anyone perceived as hostile to the far-right
settler movement.

Here is a summary of the "price tag" attacks launched in April so far:

• April 4: Several cars had windows smashed and tires punctured
  in the Palestinian village of Fara'ata, near Nablus in the West Bank.
  Spray-painted graffiti messages included "Administrative price tag,"
  scrawled on vehicles and buildings. Times of Israel (4-Apr)
  
  
• April 5: Several Palestinian and Arab Israeli parked cars in the
  Arab neighborhood of Beit Hanina in East Jerusalem were spray-painted
  with graffiti messages and some of their tires were punctured.
  Times of Israel (5-Apr)
  
  
• April 13: The Sa'ada Mosque in the northern West Bank village of
  Aqraba was torched in an anti-Arab hate crime attack. Messages of
  “death,” “revenge” and “price tag” were found graffitied on the walls.
  The same mosque had been the target of an arson attack five years ago.
  Times of Israel (13-Apr)
  
  
• April 17: in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Issawiya and the
  West Bank village of Luban a-Sharqiya, car tires were deflated, and
  messages including "Expel or kill" were scrawled on walls. Times of Israel (17-Apr)
  
  
• April 18: Over two dozen olive trees were destroyed, while
  messages like "Death to Arabs" and "Drive them out" were spray-painted
  on walls in the West Bank village of Urif. Times of Israel (18-Apr)
  
  
• April 20: Vandals spray-painted a building in the West Bank town
  of Burqa, near Ramallah, with the words, “Supporters of terror, expel
  or kill.” CCTV camera footage from the scene showed men in dark,
  clothes, their faces, hidden, puncture the tires of a truck. Times of Israel (20-Apr)
  
  
• April 23: Tires were slashed and Hebrew-language graffiti were
  spray-painted in the villages of Ramun and Beit Iksa in the West
  Banks. The graffiti included phrases like “Let us take care of them”
  and “We’ll take our fate into our own hands." Times of Israel (23-Apr)

Phrases like “Administrative revenge” are used when the price tag
attacks target Israeli police or soldiers, and refer to means taken to
prevent Israeli settler violence, such as police detentions, bans on
entry into the West Bank, nightly curfews, and bans on contacting
certain individuals.

One of the worst price tag attacks occurred on March 20, 2016, when an
arson attack killed a Palestinian family in the West Bank village of
Duma, south of Nablus. Two homes were set ablaze in the attack and
the Hebrew slogans “revenge” and “long live the king messiah” were
spray-painted on their walls, alongside a Star of David.
Eighteen-month-old Ali Dawabsha was burned to death, and other family
members died after months of treatments for burns.

Shin Bet, Israel's security agency, published statistics showing a
sharp increase in price tag attacks in 2018, with 13 price tag attacks
in the first four months of 2018, compared to 8 in the entire year
2017.

Last month, an Israeli court handed down a five-year prison sentence
to a settler teen convicted of membership in a terror organization,
for carrying out a string of so-called “price-tag” attacks against
Palestinians and their property. Times of Israel and WAFA (Palestine) and I24 News


****
**** Hilltop youth from Yitzhar settlement considered the epicenter of 'price tag' attacks
****

Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency, declared in 2011 that the
"price tag" attacks were terrorist activity, and that they had moved
from spontaneous acts to organized planning, including the use of a
database of potential targets.

Since then, many groups have complained that Israel's government have
not taken price tag attacks seriously. In 2014, the Roman Catholic
Church in Israel condemned price tag attacks on church property in
Jerusalem, and issued a statement saying, "The wave of fanaticism and
intimidation against Christians continues." In one price tag attack,
the threat "Death to Arabs, Christians and all those who hate Israel,”
was topped with a star of David in a Catholic church.

Many Palestinian activists and rights groups have accused Israel of
fostering a "culture of impunity" for Israelis committing violent
price tag attacks against Palestinians.

IDF (Israeli defense force) officials say that the surge in violent
attacks over the past month have been carried out by "hilltop youth"
from Yitzhar Jewish settlement in the West Bank.

The young activists are often referred to as “hilltop youth” due to
their practice of setting up illegal outposts on West Bank hilltops.
In June, 2017, the IDF evacuated a large illegal outpost in Baladim,
and dozens of Baladim settlers moved into the Yitzhar settlement.
It's believed that the Yitzhar settlement has been used as a base for
the surge in price tag attacks in the last few weeks.

The Yesh Din rights group has also slammed police “incompetence” in
being unable to make a single arrest in any of the instances over the
past week, saying it has “provided a tailwind for ideological crimes
against Palestinians.” UPI (13-Sep-2011) and Forward (8-May-2014) and Ma'an News (West Bank) and Times of Israel

Related articles:

• Israeli 'price tag' attacks against soldiers and Palestinians grow (14-Dec-2011)
  
  
• Jewish Israeli youths lynch Palestinians in Jerusalem as hundreds watched (22-Aug-2012)
  
  
• Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks (18-Jun-2013)
  
  
• Jerusalem violence triggered by 'price tag' killing of Palestinian teen (03-Jul-2014)
  
  
• Palestinian violence spreads after new atrocities are revealed (06-Jul-2014)
  
  
• Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows (09-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Tensions with Palestinians soar after brutal Israeli settler 'price tag' attack (01-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, price-tag attacks, West Bank, Jerusalem,
Beit Hanina, Sa'ada Mosque, Aqraba, Issawiya, Luban a-Sharqiya,
Urif, Burqa, Ramallah, Ramun, Beit Iksa, Duma, Nablus, Ali Dawabsha,
Shin Bet, Yitzhar settlement, hilltop youth, Yesh Din

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 25-Apr-18 World View -- Congo's Kabila and Burundi's Nkurunziza use violence and corruption to stay in power

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila attacks Catholic Church opposition violently
  
• Burundi's Nkurunziza uses violence on opposition to his May 17 referendum
  

****
**** DR Congo's Joseph Kabila attacks Catholic Church opposition violently
****


Sunday mass in the St. Christine Catholic Church in DRC's capital city Kinshasa. (Riva Press / Redux)

The next presidential election for the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC) is scheduled for December 23. International leaders are
demanding that he step down and let the elections be free and fair,
demands that there is little possibility he'll meet.

Joseph Kabila was supposed to step down as president when his mandate
ran out on December 19, 2016. Instead, he pulled a breathtaking stunt
late in 2016 by doing nothing to prepare the country for new
elections, and then claimed that he couldn't step down because there
were no elections to select a president to replace him.

This stunt triggered large riots and a threat of civil war in DRC, but
the Catholic Church intervened and brokered an agreement: Elections
would be held in December of 2017 to choose Kabila's successor, and
this time Kabila would really step down. However, the agreement was a
farce: It was signed by members of Kabila's government, but it wasn't
even signed by Kabila himself. It was pretty clear throughout
2017 that Kabila would not honor the agreement.

So now we supposedly have a commitment for an election in
December of this year.

Leaders of African countries almost uniformly refuse to criticize
Kabila, mainly because many of them are just as corrupt as Kabila is.
However, Botswana's president Mokgweetsi Masisi has become the first
(and perhaps the only) African leader to take a stand and criticize
Kabila. Earlier this year, Botswana's government issued a statement
openly blaming Kabila for DRC's deteriorating humanitarian and
security situation.

And last week, Masisi said in an interview,

<QUOTE>"The president of the DRC has stayed in power longer
than the time that was expected. Hopefully we can get from
(Kabila) a real commitment to not attempt to come back to power by
whatever means."<END QUOTE>

However, as we've been reporting for months, there is no
possibility whatsoever that Kabila will step down.

Kabila and his family own, either partially or wholly, more than 80
companies and businesses in the country and abroad. He and his
children own more than 71,000 hectares (175,444 acres) of farmland.
His family owns diamond mines, a part of the country's largest mobile
phone network, companies that mine mineral deposits, gold and
limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a share of the
country's banks, and a fast-food franchise. This is pure criminal
corruption by Kabila and his family.

With tentacles reaching into so many businesses, it's not surprising
that Kabila is willing to use any method -- massacres, atrocities,
jailings, torture -- to stay in power. If he were to step down, he
would probably be arrested or else shot and killed, rather than
writing a book and going on tour as Western leaders do when they step
down.

As in 2016, the Catholic Church is taking on Kabila. Earlier this
year, the church organized protest events in DRC's capital city
Kinshasa. They were violently broken up by Kabila's police using live
rounds and tear gas, and at least 15 people were killed.

Kabila's attacks on the Catholic Church are only a small part of the
violence that he's causing. In the past, I've written about the
bloody wars in the southwestern Kasai region, where the armies and
militias reporting to the government of president Joseph Kabila are
committing genocide; about the bloody tribal wars in northeastern Kivu
region, causing massive refugee flows into Uganda; as we reported in February,
another a
humanitarian disaster of "extraordinary proportions" emerged in
Tanganyika province in southeastern DRC. The genocide by Kabila's
army has resulted in 3.9 million people forced to flee their homes to
escape the violence. Hundreds of thousands have fled to Zambia,
Angola and other neighboring countries as refugees, creating a
humanitarian disaster in those countries. Reuters and Irin (1-Feb) and Ozy (29-Mar) and Reuters (23-Jan)

Related Articles

• DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo (14-Apr-2018)
  
  
• 22-Feb-18 Tanganyika province in DR Congo faces a humanitarian disaster of 'extraordinary proportions' (22-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability (21-Jun-2017)
  

****
**** Burundi's Nkurunziza uses violence on opposition to his May 17 referendum
****

DRC's Joseph Kabila is rumored to be preparing a referendum to amend
the constitution to allow him to remain in power into the 2030's.
Leaders of Rwanda and Uganda have already arranged for their
countries' constitutions to be amended in a similar way.

Burundi's president Pierre Nkurunziza, who calls himself the "eternal
supreme guide" of Burundi, has set May 17 as a date for a national
referendum to change the constitution to permit him to stay in office
until at least 2034.

According to Human Rights Watch, Nkurunziza is using violence
to guarantee that the referendum will pass. This violence
includes beatings, arrests, jailings and torture.

Nkurunziza should have stepped down as leader in 2015, since the
constitution limits any leader to two terms. When Nkurunziza
announced that he would run for a third term, his police force used
bullets, tear gas and water cannons to control the protests. He's
expected to continue to use as much force as necessary to rig
the May 17 elections and guarantee that the referendum will
pass.

I remember a time, 15-20 years ago, when I knew almost nothing about
any African country. Well, I knew a little about Egypt, South Africa,
Morocco, and a few other countries, but not much. That's why, in the
last ten years, I've made a point to learn as much as I can about
African countries. And in almost all of them, the story is the same
-- massive corruption, massive government violence, ethnic and tribal
violence. African leaders have been promising democracies, but
instead we see one leader after another using violence to stay
in power in order to protect his cronies who have been stealing
money from the treasury, often money that the West provided in
aid. That's why after forty years and billions of dollars in
Western aid, ordinary African people are just as poor as they were
forty years ago.

As in the case of DRC, we can expect more violence in the form of
killings, torture, rape, arrests, jailings, beatings, and anything
else necessary for the corrupt politicians Kabila and Nkurunziza to
keep themselves in power.

From the point of view of General Dynamics, many leaders follow
exactly the same patterns following a generational crisis civil war
between different tribes or ethnic groups. After the war ends, the
leader of the country, usually from the winning tribe or ethnic group,
refuses to give up power, and becomes increasingly violent and
authoritarian, using as an excuse that peaceful protests or negative
news articles can turn into a new civil war. This excuse provides
justification for mass slaughter, rape, torture, mass jailings,
mutilations, and so forth. I've described this behavior in Bashar
al-Assad in Syria, who has gone to the extent of using Sarin gas and
barrel bombs packed with explosives and metal and laced with chlorine
gas onto civilian neighborhoods and markets in order to kill as many
women and children as possible. Other leaders that I've described
exhibiting this type of behavior include Hun Sen in Cambodia, Paul
Biya in Cameroon, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and Joseph Kabila in DRC. East Africa Monitor and Human Rights Watch and AFP

Related Articles

• Burundi's Hutu 'eternal supreme guide' Nkurunziza to remain in power eternally (19-Mar-2018)
  
  
• 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war (30-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Uganda lawmakers throw fists and chairs at each other over Museveni's power grab (28-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Rwanda's president Kagame becomes another leader refusing to leave office (19-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide (13-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Joseph Kabila,
Botswana, Mokgweetsi Masisi, Uganda, Rwanda, Zambia, Angola,
Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
  
• Fears grow that Armenia's instability will spill over into Russia
  
• Armenian political chaos follows the path of America in the 1960s
  

****
**** Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister
****


Soldiers from Armenia's army join the anti-government protests in Yerevan (charter97.org)

As we reported last week,

Armenia's opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan called for a "non-violent
velvet revolution," alluding to the peaceful 1989 uprising that ousted
the Communist regime in the former Czechoslovakia.

Answering Pashinyan's call, thousands of protesters blockaded streets
and government in Armenia's capital city Yerevan, with the objective
of preventing the parliament from voting to make Serzh Sargsyan, who
had already served ten years as president under the previous
constitution, the new prime minister under the new constitution.

The parliament did vote to make Sargsyan the next prime minister, but
as the street protests continued. The tide turned for Sargsyan on
April 23 when soldiers from the Armenian military left their barracks
and joined the protesters in the streets. Sargsyan announced on April
23 that he was stepping down, and would be replaced by acting prime
minister Karen Karapetyan (male), an ally of Sargsyan.

This was a clear victory for Pashinyan, and it was hoped that the
protests would end, and that Armenia would return to "normal."
Instead, tens of thousands of opposition protesters have returned to
the streets in Yerevan, demanding that the new prime minister and his
entire government step down. EurasiaNet and Guardian (London) and Charter97 (Russia)
and (Trans)

****
**** Fears grow that Armenia's instability will spill over into Russia
****

Armenia is a small country of 3 million people, strongly dependent
on Russia. In religion, the Armenian Apostolic Church is
very close to the Russian Orthodox Church. In trade,
Armenians working in Russia supply 20% of the country's GDP.
So Armenia has little choice but to do as directed by
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. And long-time president
Serzh Sargsyan, who was just forced to step down as prime minister,
always aligned policies with Russia, not with the West.

But a popular revolution could change all that, and there is already
talk of a new "color revolution" in Armenia. The opposition leader
Nikol Pashinyan has already invoked the 1989 Velvet Revolution in the
former Czechoslovakia that ousted the Communist regime.

Other color revolutions that have occurred in Russia's backyard
include the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003, the Orange Revolution
in Ukraine in 2004, and the Tulip Revolution (or Pink Revolution) in
Kyrgyzstan in 2005.

So Russia could be legitimately afraid that another color revolution
might occur, this time in Armenia, and bring to power a government
that was friendly to the West and unfriendly to Russia. Russia did
militarily invade Georgia and Ukraine after their respective
revolutions, so an invasion of Armenia at some point in the future is
a possibility, if things really get out of hand.

There's another concern that Putin might have. Putin himself
served two terms as president of Russia, then switched and
became prime minister to stay in power, then switched back
and became president again, arranging to the constitution to
be amended so that he could be president forever.

That, of course, is similar to what Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia. And
not were there massive protests, but Sargsyan was forced to step down
when the army joined the protests. Putin might fear that the Russian
people might copy the Armenian people's example and hold massive
anti-Putin protests, and then have army soldiers join the protests.
If that every happened in Russia, the outcome would be much bloodier
than in Armenia.
Washington Post and Jamestown and Moscow Times and Trend News (Azerbaijan) and Reuters

****
**** Armenian political chaos follows the path of America in the 1960s
****

As I described last week,
Armenia
is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the bloody
conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.

An Awakening era is the time when the first generation that grows up
after the war comes of age, and starts to make itself felt. Their
parents, the traumatized soldiers and other survivors of the war, try
to set rules and impose restrictions so that such a war will never
occur again. The kids in the younger generation, with no personal
memory of the war, rebel against these restrictions, creating
a "generation gap," or a political conflict between generations.

The forced resignation of Serzh Sargsyan might be roughly compared to
the President Lyndon Johnson's forced decision in 1968 not to run for
another term. He had hoped that by stepping down he would encourage
an end to the massive street protests, including some violence.
However, the protests and violence did not end. There were still
several "long, hot summers" to come, there was the violence at the
Democratic National Convention in 1968, there was Woodstock in 1969,
and there was the shootings at Kent State. Finally, the resignation
of Richard Nixon in 1974 was the Awakening climax, because it resolved
the generational conflict in favor of the younger post-war generation,
specifically the Boomers, over the GI Generation that had fought in
the war.

Today we're seeing exactly the same kind of generational conflict in
Armenia. The tens of thousands of young people who protested in the
streets of Yerevan may have won their first victory, but the protests
will continue in other forms for years, and there will be bursts of
violence. There will be no "return to normal" for Armenia for many
years. BBC

Related articles:

• Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country (18-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia. (18-Apr-2008)
  
  
• 21-Mar-10 News - 'Day of Anger' anti-Putin protests in Russia (21-Mar-2010)
  
  
• Putin becomes president of Russia again, facing harsh new challenges (08-May-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Karen Karapetyan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Kent State, Woodstock

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"? Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991?

(04-25-2018, 10:04 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"? Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991?

Thanks for the corrections.

(04-25-2018, 10:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2018, 10:04 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"?  Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991?

Thanks for the corrections.

 Guys, try 1969.

(04-25-2018, 10:27 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2018, 10:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2018, 10:04 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"?  Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991?

Thanks for the corrections.

 Guys, try 1969.

Thanks. At my age my brain is addled, and I should always
look up dates to be sure.