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(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

The best estimate of current cases: 10X the number reported. That's heartening in that most are very minor or totally asymptomatic. What's not so good is the issue of spread. If you have no idea that many of the people you see out-and-about are actually spreaders, how do you avoid being a victim?
(05-06-2020, 09:41 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]You guys, financed by right-wingers like Betsy DeVoss, are the ones whipping up hysteria on the grounds that the measures needed to protect ourselves from this virus are curtailing our freedom. It is you guys, led by the Liar in Chief, the fake president, who are whipping this hysteria up so that this tyrant can get himself re-elected because the economy is rebounding. Failing that, he will use you guys, with guns in hand, to carry out a coup attempt on Jan.20, 2021.

I'm not financed by anyone. Dude, the Democrats are the ones whipping up hysteria to gain power. See, the truth comes out of your mouth every now and then without you knowing it. It's not in your interest to have a economic rebound and things getting back to normal come fall. You don't think we know that and understand what the liberals are up to? As I mentioned before, I don't live in Minneapolis or St Paul and I'm not reliant upon either of them. What will we do when they're broke and there's a bunch of rioting. We'll arm up which will be new and then  go around them like we usually do. Like I've said, the Democratic governors better start showing the American voters that they care about them and get the lead out.

The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.
(05-06-2020, 10:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]Really? You think more testing that proves that we can start getting back to normal for the most part isn't in his interest. The issue with the lack of testing is that we don't manufacture stuff as much as we should in this country and we don't have issues with pandemics that often either.

Testing will get us to the most engaged place we can go without turning the nation into a COVID ward. That's all. Since we've been horrible at everything related to this pandemic, and the bad performance has been intentional on the part of the White House, how does testing make the Orange One look good or even open the economy more than a tad? We're 4% of the world's population but have 25% of the COVID cases and deaths. Testing can't change that.

Classic-Xer Wrote:Now, I could blame the governor of New York pissing away billions on everything else than what the state needed to combat a pandemic and save lives. I could call him a murderer for forcing nursing homes to deal with COVID19 patients to prevent overloading the healthcare system. I could but I won't bother because it helps no one to do it at this point.

Yes, you could blame Cuomo, and he's even taken some blame on himself, but he didn't leave the country wide open to travelers from Europe. That was a Federal decision, and one that triggered the entire outbreak in NYC. We know that because the virus in NYC is different that the one that came to the West Coast from China. Note: Trump handed out supplies to friends -- many who didn't even need them, but he stiff armed NYC because they bad mouthed him. That's as petty as it gets. Then, when the hospitals were overwhelmed, he pointed fingers., Nice guy!

Classic-Xer Wrote:I don't believe what the state run coastal media has to say about anything these days. You're hooked bit I'm not. Well, while she does her job and you watch as she's doing her job, I'm going to watch Fox and see what all the REAL experts have to say about what's going on these days.

Fox and "real experts" is oxymoronic. It's amazing that they are still believed by anyone. Feel free to watch and listen, but don't bitch when the "information" proves deadly.
(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 10:50 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 09:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 06:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]People who have already had it, who have an immunity

There's no actual indication that already having it gives one immunity.  That does not happen to any significant extent for that other coronavirus caused disease, the common cold.

The myriad viruses that cause the Common Cold are unstable, so vaccination is clearly impossible. This virus seems to follow a different, more stable paradigm. Note: if immunity from having the disease is nonexistent, then a successful vaccine seems unlikely.

How is this virus "more stable"?  Just because it doesn't have as many strains yet?

If there's no prolonged immunity, you're right, there's unlikely to be a successful vaccine.  Then we get to have repeated outbreaks each winter, with associated mitigations or deaths.

Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

I'm no expert so I can only report what the actual experts say, and this came from an infectious disease researcher.  Supposedly, the coronavirus strains we call the common cold are less stable, but all types are RNA viruses tend to mutate as they reproduce in a victim's cells.  SARS and MERS changed to our benefit, and that may happen to this virus too.  Viruses mutate in all directions, but more-lethal variants kill their victims and burnout quickly.  The mutations we tend to see are more mundane, and we live with them.
(05-07-2020, 03:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

You are expecting another trigger?  The boomers are going to age out of power soon, ending the window for the prophet - nomad - civic constellation of generations.  With crisis war triggers rare to impossible given nukes, that leaves the chance of something else blowing up to a trigger low.  After COVUS 19 is suppressed, the materialist selfish faction is going to want to shift rapidly into a high.

I’m not seeing another trigger coming along as likely.  I was already working out what happens if a crisis configuration goes by without a trigger, which was looking likely until COVUS 19.  What do you anticipate?

It may be that having Trump bollox this up as badly as he has will be the needed impetus for real change.  That never happened last time, and there's a tiny window where it may this time. The only real limitation: the US Constitution. It's nearly impossible to amend and many of the problems we have as a nation are due directly to the imbalance in power between urban and rural.  We won't have the option of secession amendments this time.
(05-07-2020, 03:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

You are expecting another trigger?  The boomers are going to age out of power soon, ending the window for the prophet - nomad - civic constellation of generations.  With crisis war triggers rare to impossible given nukes, that leaves the chance of something else blowing up to a trigger low.  After COVUS 19 is suppressed, the materialist selfish faction is going to want to shift rapidly into a high.

I’m not seeing another trigger coming along as likely.  I was already working out what happens if a crisis configuration goes by without a trigger, which was looking likely until COVUS 19.  What do you anticipate?

I think Trump is the trigger. It has galvanized resistance already, since a trigger does not need to be a war or a government action. If Trump is voted out, and especially if the Republican Senate is voted out too, that will precipitate a reform era. When the right wing gun toters rise up against the reforms, which will include gun control, that will be another trigger. If Trump is re-elected, the resistance will grow, and so will his misconduct, leading to another impeachment. That could be a trigger if he is removed from office.

We are in a cold civil war; that is our 4T. It will be called that. Only a match is needed to turn up the temperature.
(05-07-2020, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.
Can you live without the American economy? Can you live without Social Security, Medicare, pension, your wife's job, food, electricity and everything else that's economically related? Shall we find out? Oh, that's right, you're not a blue city slicker anymore. You're an exurban these days So, you have an unfair advantage over those who will be trapped in blue cities with incompetent leaders who don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves these days.

I can live with COVID19 and we've been doing it for a while now. The blue cities can remain in economic shut down for as long as their leaders want and their base feels it needs to at this point. The rest of America isn't going to care and will adjust life without them and their support like it's been doing for years and begin to even further separate itself from blue leadership and the blue cities and blues like yourself and others here. I mean, blue values seem to center on the blues themselves these days.
(05-07-2020, 12:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.
Can you live without the American economy? Can you live without Social Security, Medicare, pension, your wife's job, food, electricity and everything else that's economically related? Shall we find out? Oh, that's right, you're not a blue city slicker anymore. You're an exurban these days. So, you have an unfair advantage over those who will be trapped in blue cities with incompetent leaders who don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves these days.

I can live with COVID19 and we've been doing it for a while now. The blue cities can remain in economic shut down for as long as their leaders want and their base feels it needs to at this point. The rest of America isn't going to care and will adjust life without them and their support like it's been doing for years and begin to even further separate itself from blue leadership and the blue cities and blues like yourself and others here. I mean, blue values seem to center on the blues themselves these days.

Hot spots in rural red areas are growing. Your area will not be immune if the virus spikes again.
(05-07-2020, 12:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I think Trump is the trigger. It has galvanized resistance already, since a trigger does not need to be a war or a government action. If Trump is voted out, and especially if the Republican Senate is voted out too, that will precipitate a reform era. When the right wing gun toters rise up against the reforms, which will include gun control, that will be another trigger. If Trump is re-elected, the resistance will grow, and so will his misconduct, leading to another impeachment. That could be a trigger if he is removed from office.

We are in a cold civil war; that is our 4T. It will be called that. Only a match is needed to turn up the temperature.
I think COVID19 is/will be the initial tripper myself. You're right, we've been participating in a cold civil war for many years now. Eventually, the Americans among you are going to have to choose between their country and the world. If Trump wins, Trump is going to win big and the Republicans are going to take back the House and increase their numbers in the Senate. You don't represent America these days. You represent the so called world, the liberals who still control Europe (soft socialism), Russia (soft fascism) and China (hard Communism) these days. As you know, America is way different than them.
(05-07-2020, 01:05 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 12:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I think Trump is the trigger. It has galvanized resistance already, since a trigger does not need to be a war or a government action. If Trump is voted out, and especially if the Republican Senate is voted out too, that will precipitate a reform era. When the right wing gun toters rise up against the reforms, which will include gun control, that will be another trigger. If Trump is re-elected, the resistance will grow, and so will his misconduct, leading to another impeachment. That could be a trigger if he is removed from office.

We are in a cold civil war; that is our 4T. It will be called that. Only a match is needed to turn up the temperature.
I think COVID19 is/will be the initial tripper myself. You're right, we've been participating in a cold civil war for many years now. Eventually, the Americans among you are going to have to choose between their country and the world. If Trump wins, Trump is going to win big and the Republicans are going to take back the House and increase their numbers in the Senate. You don't represent America these days. You represent the so called world, the liberals who still  control Europe (soft socialism), Russia (soft fascism) and China (hard Communism) these days. As you know, America is way different than them.
Yes, different from them, because we have such a backward faction, now ironically called "red," IOW you guys that hold us back and are over-represented in power. I'd choose the world over the USA's red faction any day. 

Although that's not to say that China and Russia are any better than you guys, but you guys would lump us blues in with them any day, because you only see what you choose to see and what helps your propaganda.
(05-07-2020, 12:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 12:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.
Can you live without the American economy? Can you live without Social Security, Medicare, pension, your wife's job, food, electricity and everything else that's economically related? Shall we find out? Oh, that's right, you're not a blue city slicker anymore. You're an exurban these days. So, you have an unfair advantage over those who will be trapped in blue cities with incompetent leaders who don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves these days.

I can live with COVID19 and we've been doing it for a while now. The blue cities can remain in economic shut down for as long as their leaders want and their base feels it needs to at this point. The rest of America isn't going to care and will adjust life without them and their support like it's been doing for years and begin to even further separate itself from blue leadership and the blue cities and blues like yourself and others here. I mean, blue values seem to center on the blues themselves these days.

Hot spots in rural red areas are growing. Your area will not be immune if the virus spikes again.
My area isn't immune now and hasn't been immune the entire time. You see, the coastal Progressives/big city blues/big government people weren't prepared to stop the spread of a global pandemic that began way over in China. You better get ready for changes and you better get ready for the return/resurgence of the Tea Party and your cozy elites better be prepared to fully fund all their programs themselves that keep them in power or accept the consequences of not doing/ failing to do so these days too. I'm sure the rural areas aren't going to like you more after their ravaged by COVID19.
(05-07-2020, 01:37 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 12:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 12:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.
Can you live without the American economy? Can you live without Social Security, Medicare, pension, your wife's job, food, electricity and everything else that's economically related? Shall we find out? Oh, that's right, you're not a blue city slicker anymore. You're an exurban these days. So, you have an unfair advantage over those who will be trapped in blue cities with incompetent leaders who don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves these days.

I can live with COVID19 and we've been doing it for a while now. The blue cities can remain in economic shut down for as long as their leaders want and their base feels it needs to at this point. The rest of America isn't going to care and will adjust life without them and their support like it's been doing for years and begin to even further separate itself from blue leadership and the blue cities and blues like yourself and others here. I mean, blue values seem to center on the blues themselves these days.

Hot spots in rural red areas are growing. Your area will not be immune if the virus spikes again.
My area isn't immune now and hasn't been immune the entire time. You see, the coastal Progressives/big city blues/big government people weren't prepared to stop the spread of a global pandemic that began way over in China. You better get ready for changes and you better get ready for the return/resurgence of the Tea Party and your cozy elites better be prepared to fully fund all their programs themselves that keep them in power or accept the consequences of not doing/ failing to do so these days too. I'm sure the rural areas aren't going to like you more after their ravaged by COVID19.

I think the Tea Party could resurge any time; that's who the Trump supporters are already. The government folk who weren't prepared to stop the pandemic were the Trump admin. Of course, the reds choose not to see the fault of their dear leader.
(05-07-2020, 01:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, different from them, because we have such a backward faction, now ironically called "red," IOW you guys that hold us back and are over-represented in power. I'd choose the world over the USA's red faction any day. 

Although that's not to say that China and Russia are any better than you guys, but you guys would lump us blues in with them any day, because you only see what you choose to see and what helps your propaganda.
I'm glad to hear that you have already chosen the world over us. I don't have to feel bad for you as you're waiting for the world to save you from starving, suffering from some disease without medicine, avoiding being killed or robbed or enslaved by groups of armed anarchists while the world talks and talks and talks and argues and argues and argues and engages in petty politics while the situation gets worse and more worse for clowns like you and others here. You've already been lumped in with them and you've already proved that you deserve to be lumped in with them.
(05-07-2020, 12:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]The best estimates -- those offered by real experts -- puts the Fall reemergence in the worse-than-original category.  Are you willing to die for the economy? If not, then assume it will be slammed shut yet again, with many additional avoidable deaths too boot.  If staying open is your best option, then the total number of dead may reach into the millions in the US alone -- and we will be alone in this.

And let's talk about cities and not-cities.  I doubt the residents of the cities will be willing cannon fodder in your economic war.  Since most of the economic activity in the country is driven from the cities, and the residents will not offer to die for you, then your guns are of little use.  Feel free to rally away, and wave those guns.  It may be your last act on earth, because the virus doesn't care.

Can you live without the American economy? Can you live without Social Security, Medicare, pension, your wife's job, food, electricity and everything else that's economically related? Shall we find out? Oh, that's right, you're not a blue city slicker anymore. You're an exurban these days So, you have an unfair advantage over those who will be trapped in blue cities with incompetent leaders who don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves these days.

What people get as aid will go back into the American economy as, among other things, insurance payments, property rents, taxes, food, fuel, entertainment media (OK, in my case complete sets of Bartok and Haydn string quartets will be more enlightenment than entertainment), vehicle repairs, maintenance, vet bills, and in my case the rescue of a canine companion and some dog food. Therapist's orders! 

Quote:I can live with COVID19 and we've been doing it for a while now. The blue cities can remain in economic shut down for as long as their leaders want and their base feels it needs to at this point. The rest of America isn't going to care and will adjust life without them and their support like it's been doing for years and begin to even further separate itself from blue leadership and the blue cities and blues like yourself and others here. I mean, blue values seem to center on the blues themselves these days.


Over 75,000 Americans have died of it, and at a grim toll of 2000 deaths a day (there is no evidence of any slowing) we will be past the American military death toll of World War I in about twenty days. That is the third-deadliest war in sheer numbers of American combat deaths.

You are in one of those Blue States, but some Red States, especially South Dakota, are already being ravaged. 

People care about the losses of loved ones, and the death of loved ones due to a President and his lackeys failing to respond appropriately to a dangerous infectious disease will not go well with the survivors of those loved ones. OK, white people in Rapid City or Sioux Falls may not care so much about people dying on the Reservation, but they will give a big d@mn about parents, grandparents, aunts, and uncles dying of COVID-19. Until recently, people were commonly living into their 70's and 80's, and the Grim Reaper has been doing some harvesting long before the typical grain harvest. The Grim Reaper is harvesting people who thought that they had some good years left. People in advanced industrial countries just did not die of respiratory infections unless dying of something else such as cancer or congestive heart failure.   

I'm 64. I am scared of COVID-19 as I was scared of four Rottweiler-sized dogs charging a door with a flimsy latch while giving me the message that burglars are meat.  I was only taking the Census! (I do not know what dog I will get; I want one that can get along with cats, as there is a declawed cat in my house). But I was able to walk away from the equivalent of a tiger, and once I was driving off I felt safe. I did report the incident as a warning to my supervisor. Except for being about forty pounds overweight, I am doing much right for living into my eighties as did three of my four grandparents. 

But here we go again. I don't care what you think of me. You can do nothing to me except to vote for a doddering fool who can kill me through his negligence and incompetence. I will be doing what I can to protect the lives of your loved ones by supporting Joe Biden for President and Democrats down the line except for the county sheriff who seems to be doing a good job here. 

Stay safe, and don't get COVID-19. It can mess up the rest of your life even if you survive the initial attack. I remember the AIDS scare; COVID-19 scares me far more. Then again, AIDS was easier to avoid.  I'm not going into the details. 

You saw the article from WebMD. I trust WebMD far more than I trust your cranky ideas about a dangerous disease, including your reckless assessment of having gotten it and being safe from it.
(05-07-2020, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Tea Party could resurge any time; that's who the Trump supporters are already. The government folk who weren't prepared to stop the pandemic were the Trump admin. Of course, the reds choose not to see the fault of their dear leader.
The Tea Party and the primary Trump supporters are different groups of people.
(05-07-2020, 02:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Tea Party could resurge any time; that's who the Trump supporters are already. The government folk who weren't prepared to stop the pandemic were the Trump admin. Of course, the reds choose not to see the fault of their dear leader.
The Tea Party and the primary Trump supporters are different groups of people.

Nope, not at all. Same people. Same as the Gingrich contract with America folks, same as the Reagan folks, same as the McCarthyism folks. All the way back, all the way forward, all the same! They just donned red hats for Donnie!
(05-07-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 02:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Tea Party could resurge any time; that's who the Trump supporters are already. The government folk who weren't prepared to stop the pandemic were the Trump admin. Of course, the reds choose not to see the fault of their dear leader.
The Tea Party and the primary Trump supporters are different groups of people.

Nope, not at all. Same people. Same as the Gingrich contract with America folks, same as the Reagan folks, same as the McCarthyism folks. All the way back, all the way forward, all the same! They just donned red hats for Donnie!

Well... They each had a different emphasis which went with the issues of the day, but in broad terms you are far more right than not.

And Lincoln was different. For a long time the Republicans were the party of the Robber Barons, but Lincoln was a bit different.
(05-07-2020, 11:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]It may be that having Trump bollox this up as badly as he has will be the need impetus for real change.  That never happened last time, and there's a tiny window where it may this time. The only real limitation: the US Constitution. It's nearly impossible to amend and many of the problems we have a nation are due directly to the imbalance in power between urban and rural.  We won't have the option of secession amendments this time.

I have long thought we need another constitutional convention.  For as long I have thought that it wasn’t time yet.  It would have to wait until just after the crisis ends, when the problems are fresh in everyone’s minds, and everyone is chanting ‘never again.’

Still not time yet.  Not sure that even after this particular crisis it will be the time.
(05-07-2020, 11:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-07-2020, 03:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

You are expecting another trigger?  The boomers are going to age out of power soon, ending the window for the prophet - nomad - civic constellation of generations.  With crisis war triggers rare to impossible given nukes, that leaves the chance of something else blowing up to a trigger low.  After COVUS 19 is suppressed, the materialist selfish faction is going to want to shift rapidly into a high.

I’m not seeing another trigger coming along as likely.  I was already working out what happens if a crisis configuration goes by without a trigger, which was looking likely until COVUS 19.  What do you anticipate?

It may be that having Trump bollox this up as badly as he has will be the need impetus for real change.  That never happened last time, and there's a tiny window where it may this time. The only real limitation: the US Constitution. It's nearly impossible to amend and many of the problems we have a nation are due directly to the imbalance in power between urban and rural.  We won't have the option of secession amendments this time.

Trump has practically made impossible that a Boomer will be the political hero of this Crisis. 

He has discredited the descent into an increasingly-elitist economic paradigm that has failed badly despite making the promise that if we go along things will eventually get better. It's been forty years, and when failure comes, the Hard Right shouts "YOU HAVEN'T SUFFERED ENOUGH!" 

Not since at least Hoover have we had a President so reviled for dubious achievements. But Hoover was tied to an orthodox view of economic practice; Donald Trump is moral malignancy as well as incompetence. All in all his incompetence at playing the role of the despot (he hasn't shut down opposing media as Duterte is doing to the network ABS-CBN -- no relation to Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network in the Philippines, and he hasn't offed or even regulated the opposition Party). Maybe we are not out of the woods yet, and a few years from now the Hard Right will get someone as ruthless and corrupt -- more effective in stifling opposition. On the other hand, maybe the political climate of America will change so that such is impossible. 

We have gone as far as we can with plutocracy before we end up with people starving on the street as government represents wealth instead of the People. That is the economic basis of feudalism and fascism.
(05-07-2020, 10:07 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

The best estimate of current cases: 10X the number reported.  That's heartening in that most are very minor or totally asymptomatic. What's not so good is the issue of spread.  If you have no idea that many of the people you see out-and-about are actually spreaders, how do you avoid being a victim?
You avoid COVID19 the same way you avoid climate change, I guess.