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(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-13-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

The GOP has always been a party of internal loyalists.  The military is primarily Republican for that very reason.  They tend to follow the orders of their clan, so 180 degree shifts in position are easily shrugged off.  Yes, Trump is the current capo d' tutti capo of that mafia family.  I'm not sure how permanent that is though.  

Eric the Green Wrote:Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

I'm sure of it. Whether it will prevail in actual elections remains to be seen.

And it depends on the quality and campaigning skill of the candidates, who actually gets elected. Some people are talking about AOC for president in 2024. I love her and support her work, but president? Democrats need to consider more carefully whom the independents and silent Democrats are likely to see as a leader, regardless of policies. My horoscope scores should be heeded. AOC doesn't measure up. She is just too small.

Kamala's score is 4-16. She is just not a very capable leader. People are not realizing this.
(08-15-2020, 12:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-13-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

The GOP has always been a party of internal loyalists.  The military is primarily Republican for that very reason.  They tend to follow the orders of their clan, so 180 degree shifts in position are easily shrugged off.  Yes, Trump is the current capo d' tutti capo of that mafia family.  I'm not sure how permanent that is though.  

Eric the Green Wrote:Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

I'm sure of it. Whether it will prevail in actual elections remains to be seen.

And it depends on the quality and campaigning skill of the candidates, who actually gets elected. Some people are talking about AOC for president in 2024. I love her and support her work, but president? Democrats need to consider more carefully whom the independents and silent Democrats are likely to see as a leader, regardless of policies. My horoscope scores should be heeded. AOC doesn't measure up. She is just too small.

Kamala's score is 4-16. She is just not a very capable leader. People are not realizing this.

People have bigger problems in life than their "stars". FDR was a literal cripple, and somehow he turned out well.
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

Or sooner if it is clear that Trump is out.  I sort of expect an interesting transfer of power, but as soon as the transfer is apparent the progressives are apt to find their tongues.
(08-16-2020, 06:10 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

Or sooner if it is clear that Trump is out.  I sort of expect an interesting transfer of power, but as soon as the transfer is apparent the progressives are apt to find their tongues.

Real change doesn't occur from the middle.  That's so blatantly obvious, I'm a bit ashamed to even type it.  Yet the PTB in the mainstream media and both non-Trumpian parties seem oblivious to that fact.  That only leaves one conclusion: real change is both scary and undesirable.  

The non-Trumpian GOP is simply hopeless, so ignore them for a moment.  What about the Dems?  How can change occur when the party is lead by octogenarians?  Fresh thinking rarely emerges from stale minds, and these folks are well past their use-by date.
For obvious reasons we are approaching the end of the line for the Silent. Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, and Joe Biden are among the last acts. There are no Silent leaders in the wings, so what follows will largely be Boom and X. I suspect that America will be more selective of the next Boom leader and end up, if we should get a Boom President, someone free of the vices of the economic elite of the Boom generation (the selfish greed, the arrogant rancor, and unprincipled ruthlessness) while seeking people who better exemplify Idealist virtues -- principle, decisiveness, and culture.

Put someone like me in values as Secretary of Education (I really have been a teacher, if 'only' as a substitute, but long enough to know how the curriculum dovetails and the consequence of inclusion and exclusion of certain material, which is far more than I can say of Betsy DeVos)... and I will push cultural richness as a substitute for mindless, costly hedonism from which people get no lasting improvement in their lives. Are you bored? Maybe you bore yourself, and it is your responsibility to evade boredom. So read! Listen to great music! Seek images of excellence, whether art or nature. Then not only will you not be bored; you will have something about which to talk and be less boring!

There is more to life than being prepared for the first job, which seems to be the current objective of American education. Those first jobs are almost never what someone keeps for five or more years. Yes, I know the right answer to the interview question "Where do you want to be ten years from now?", which is "doing exactly the job for which I am applying", even if it is as a fast-food worker. Of course every employer wants a five-year solution to any job opening. Is that employer right to expect such? Maybe in a time of rigid class stratification and a stagnant economy for the non-rich for the indefinite future. That will not last. I can think of jobs for which I could apply and be hired, but such jobs are those in which I might be thinking of sa complete exit from life itself if such is the only exit from such mindless, joyless work that offers only poverty of economics and experience.
(08-16-2020, 09:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]There is more to life than being prepared for the first job, which seems to be the current objective of American education. Those first jobs are almost never what someone keeps for five or more years. Yes, I know the right answer to the interview question "Where do you want to be ten years from now?", which is "doing exactly the job for which I am applying", even if it is as a fast-food worker...

It's well past time to tell the business world that they are in charge of training; we're in charge of education.  Yes, we can partner with them on things that require it.  The current favorite is mechatronics.  But first and foremost, the commonweal is responsible for and should be focused on teaching children about the world they live in -- including the totally overlooked area of civics.  Education is intended to preserve the best in society and encourage improvement s that benefit society, not just a group of investors.  We need to start acting like responsible citizens instead of cogs in a capitalist wheel ... and soon.
(08-16-2020, 09:30 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-16-2020, 09:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]There is more to life than being prepared for the first job, which seems to be the current objective of American education. Those first jobs are almost never what someone keeps for five or more years. Yes, I know the right answer to the interview question "Where do you want to be ten years from now?", which is "doing exactly the job for which I am applying", even if it is as a fast-food worker...

It's well past time to tell the business world that they are in charge of training; we're in charge of education.  Yes, we can partner with them on things that require it.  The current favorite is mechatronics.  But first and foremost, the commonweal is responsible for and should be focused on teaching children about the world they live in -- including the totally overlooked area of civics.  Education is intended to preserve the best in society and encourage improvement s that benefit society, not just a group of investors.  We need to start acting like responsible citizens instead of cogs in a capitalist wheel ... and soon.

Part of civics is learning to reject demagoguery, including identity politics at their worst. Much of the mass appeal of Donald Trump is his strident vulgarity. Although people must learn economic functions they must also learn how to live. 

Civics is arguably the most boring class in K-12 education... but people must learn it if they are to avoid falling for people who would steal our liberties in the name of 'faith', 'prosperity', and 'national glory'... and the 'faith' is in something absurd, the 'prosperity' is for someone else to enjoy while we are shut out of it, and 'national glory' is wars for profit in which soldiers are cannon fodder. 

Back in the 1970's I remember reading Crime and PunishmentNineteen Eighty-Four, Animal Farm, Brave New World, Why I Am Not a Christian, To Kill a Mockingbird, The Catcher in the Rye, and Lord of the Flies as if such were acts of rebellion.   Don't forget Mad Magazine.  I got some telling lessons from those books... maybe the educational Establishment of the time wanted such to seem acts of rebellion.  

Mark Twain once quipped that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics". OK, figures don't lie, but liars can figure. Note also that Mark Twain missed the era of totalitarian politics, maybe not quite getting the extremist currents in Russia as Dostoevsky did (Dostoevsky was born about a decade and a half before Mark Twain, but he was in Russia and Mark Twain wasn't). The age of totalitarianism in politics begins with the founding of the Second Ku Klux Klan, which took on many characteristics of fascism before Mussolini used the word Fascismo to describe his vague beliefs at the time. Twain obviously missed the Russian Revolution and Bolshevism... people can use statistics to refute dubious statistics, as statistics is the easiest class in college-level mathematics. But Orwellian Newspeak is a monster, a destroyer of language and its capacity for subtlety and clarity of expression essential to honest politics and even something so basic as romantic love. People need recognize the ways of Newspeak when it emerges from the moral cesspool of totalitarianism and find it repugnant  if they are to keep their Republic. 

We need expand education from K-12 to K-14 just to teach people how to avoid being cheated out of a good life. High school may have too many legitimate objectives to offer the survey courses in economics, philosophy (especially formal logic), and psychology that one needs so that one can avoid getting snookered. Cinema is the legitimate new art form of the last century and a half, and it is a melding of literature and image... and even if it is only slightly and erratically verbal (silent film) then it has its own special means of non-verbal communication. Art and music appreciation? Those can enrich life greatly. People who know genuine music recognize rap as ugly noise and practically all country music as witless drivel. (OK, Roy Clark was a genuine virtuoso, and Johnny Cash did show some conscience... when his music took more of a folk direction).
CBS/YouGov. Match-ups for all fifty states and Dee Cee.


State by state on the map:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Biden edge 10% or higher   saturation 70%
Biden edge 5-9% with at least 50% saturation 50%
Biden edge less than 5% but at least 50% saturation 40%
Biden edge but short of 50% saturation 20%

tie -- white

Trump edge with less than 50% saturation 20% (there is no such state this time)
Trump edge less than 5% but with at least 50% saturation 30
Trump edge 5-9%   but at least 50% saturation 50
Trump edge 10% or higher saturation 70

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-d...8-16-2020/

Note well that Biden is winning every state that Hillary Clinton won with a margin of at least 10%. He is up by at least 5% in the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

(Snide-swipe at Classic X'er): I guess there aren't enough of your "real Americans" who love your Dear Leader voting this time.
(08-16-2020, 11:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Part of civics is learning to reject demagoguery, including identity politics at their worst. Much of the mass appeal of Donald Trump is his strident vulgarity. Although people must learn economic functions they must also learn how to live. 

Civics is arguably the most boring class in K-12 education... but people must learn it if they are to avoid falling for people who would steal our liberties in the name of 'faith', 'prosperity', and 'national glory'... and the 'faith' is in something absurd, the 'prosperity' is for someone else to enjoy while we are shut out of it, and 'national glory' is wars for profit in which soldiers are cannon fodder. 

Back in the 1970's I remember reading Crime and PunishmentNineteen Eighty-Four, Animal Farm, Brave New World, Why I Am Not a Christian, To Kill a Mockingbird, The Catcher in the Rye, and Lord of the Flies as if such were acts of rebellion.   Don't forget Mad Magazine.  I got some telling lessons from those books... maybe the educational Establishment of the time wanted such to seem acts of rebellion.  

Mark Twain once quipped that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics". OK, figures don't lie, but liars can figure. Note also that Mark Twain missed the era of totalitarian politics, maybe not quite getting the extremist currents in Russia as Dostoevsky did (Dostoevsky was born about a decade and a half before Mark Twain, but he was in Russia and Mark Twain wasn't). The age of totalitarianism in politics begins with the founding of the Second Ku Klux Klan, which took on many characteristics of fascism before Mussolini used the word Fascismo to describe his vague beliefs at the time. Twain obviously missed the Russian Revolution and Bolshevism... people can use statistics to refute dubious statistics, as statistics is the easiest class in college-level mathematics. But Orwellian Newspeak is a monster, a destroyer of language and its capacity for subtlety and clarity of expression essential to honest politics and even something so basic as romantic love. People need recognize the ways of Newspeak when it emerges from the moral cesspool of totalitarianism and find it repugnant  if they are to keep their Republic. 

We need expand education from K-12 to K-14 just to teach people how to avoid being cheated out of a good life. High school may have too many legitimate objectives to offer the survey courses in economics, philosophy (especially formal logic), and psychology that one needs so that one can avoid getting snookered. Cinema is the legitimate new art form of the last century and a half, and it is a melding of literature and image... and even if it is only slightly and erratically verbal (silent film) then it has its own special means of non-verbal communication. Art and music appreciation? Those can enrich life greatly. People who know genuine music recognize rap as ugly noise and practically all country music as witless drivel. (OK, Roy Clark was a genuine virtuoso, and Johnny Cash did show some conscience... when his music took more of a folk direction).

The school system in this country doesn't serve children and our future at all, it's just a way to keep the teen unemployment figures down. The disastrous way it's run definitely makes this seem like the case anyway.

I agree with you that civic education is severely lacking. Everywhere I go, it does seem to me that this country is a cultural vacuum, with people equating hedonistic entertainment with culture and vacuous expression with art. I too fall prey to this mindless drivel, losing hours of a day to reading and watching these things when I could be appreciating more intellectually stimulating media. I'm beginning to suspect that our culture as a whole (at least right now) cannot support intellectual enlightenment, given that people are too stressed out making ends meet to even have the mental energy to appreciate something greater. All they want is to put on another mind-numbing episode of their favorite TV show for 20 mins of escapism.

I think for this to happen we need a collective cultural awakening, a reevaluation of our values, that life is meant to be lived, not consumed. Our neoliberal values makes this impossible, where the ultimate goal is to climb the job ladder, drive the most powerful car, own the biggest house, run in the rat race. In many cases this isn't even possible, with crippling student debt being the ticket to the race, and expendable workers stopping anyone from getting far ahead at all.
(08-16-2020, 02:05 PM)RadianMay Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with you that civic education is severely lacking. Everywhere I go, it does seem to me that this country is a cultural vacuum, with people equating hedonistic entertainment with culture and vacuous expression with art. I too fall prey to this mindless drivel, losing hours of a day to reading and watching these things when I could be appreciating more intellectually stimulating media.

I think all through time there is a complaint that the younger people are seeking hedonistic art, unlike the supposedly intellectually superior elders. I tend to see it as taste. The elders will always tut tut the young.

The young are just growing up in an uglier world. They see the ugliness. Their art reflects that this ugliness makes the world go round. I would like to respect the old arts of the awakening. People like Bob Dylan and the Beatles had a real message in their time, at least when they were not proclaiming that she loves you, yeh, yah, yah. Today? It is as if the young were celebrating the ugliness. I don’t expect that this reduces their cynicism any.
(08-16-2020, 02:05 PM)RadianMay Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-16-2020, 11:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ](deleted for brevity)

The school system in this country doesn't serve children and our future at all, it's just a way to keep the teen unemployment figures down. The disastrous way it's run definitely makes this seem like the case anyway.

I agree with you that civic education is severely lacking. Everywhere I go, it does seem to me that this country is a cultural vacuum, with people equating hedonistic entertainment with culture and vacuous expression with art. I too fall prey to this mindless drivel, losing hours of a day to reading and watching these things when I could be appreciating more intellectually stimulating media. I'm beginning to suspect that our culture as a whole (at least right now) cannot support intellectual enlightenment, given that people are too stressed out making ends meet to even have the mental energy to appreciate something greater. All they want is to put on another mind-numbing episode of their favorite TV show for 20 mins of escapism.

I think for this to happen we need a collective cultural awakening, a reevaluation of our values, that life is meant to be lived, not consumed. Our neoliberal values makes this impossible, where the ultimate goal is to climb the job ladder, drive the most powerful car, own the biggest house, run in the rat race. In many cases this isn't even possible, with crippling student debt being the ticket to the race, and expendable workers stopping anyone from getting far ahead at all.

High-school attendance became much more of a norm in the 1930's.  Maybe if there wasn't adequate work for the teenagers (then apprenticeships or casual labor, later fast food), then teenagers might as well go to school and refine their lives in preparation for better times. It is arguable that people born in the early 1920's, late-wave GI's, were just as intellectually sophisticated as today's youth. 

It is possible that after people are relieved of a political disaster they become much more attentive to the political order than before. I would guess that the legislative process in Spain, Portugal, or Greece was far more interesting after the overthrow of military dictatorships in the 1970's. Figure how exciting politics could be in Chile or Czechoslovakia alike after the demise of dictatorial regimes supposedly antitheses but really having much in common. People took American politics for granted before Donald Trump, and I suspect that they will take a long time in which to get complacent about political processes again. 

Optimally politics is boring and dull.  Political life is much more exciting under Trump than under Obama, if for all the wrong reasons. 

...........

Consider well: American mass culture is mostly awful. It may be slick in image and highly sophisticated in execution, but it is mostly empty. You may have seen the knocks I made on country and rap, very dissimilar expressions of music but neither capable of elevating life in any way. We all know that mass culture is most effectively done for maximal profit if is directed at the stupidest people who might actually pay for it... and of course that is the borderline-retarded.  People stupider usually lack any disposable income and others typically buy their 'stuff' for them. It may be superficially entertaining, but it is the nutritional equivalent of cotton candy. 

This is the antithesis of cotton-candy entertainment:



 

The culmination of a complex story that has multiple themes upon which to ponder is far more intellectually nourishing. This is not twenty minutes of escapist entertainment, and people in the know pay a high price to see this. They remember it for years, which is more than one can say of Top 40 pap. And most of it is pap, the cultural equivalent of cotton candy. 

But before I seem too much of a cultural snob... eighty years ago the Big Band era had sophisticated music that, like Mozart and Haydn a hundred-fifty years earlier, operated at multiple levels of aesthetic attractiveness. Example:



  

It is derivative of a piece of classical music, Invitation to the Dance by Carl Maria von Weber... but arguably better because of a tighter organization. 



OK. Youth need to learn that there is more to life than material gain, status symbols, ease, comfort, sex, chemical highs, and bureaucratic power. Any of these can become irrelevant or rare or come at a horrific cost. As scarcity becomes less a norm because everything material (except perhaps living space and things producible only in minimal quantities) becomes easily available, status symbols of suspect desirability become pitiable more than admirable. People unable to find things worthy of sacrifice are amoral swine. Bureaucratic power which has become the most reliable way to get rich without the sacrifices of starting a business that one grows could easily disappear, and with it the spectacular pay that some of our executives enjoy (for treating people badly), if the next response to a nasty economic meltdown is to decide that some institutions are too big to save instead of (as was so the last time) too big to fail. We may go from favoring bloated, vertically-integrated oligopolies to favoring small business that does far better at serving people and providing opportunities... and jobs..
(08-15-2020, 05:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 12:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-13-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

The GOP has always been a party of internal loyalists.  The military is primarily Republican for that very reason.  They tend to follow the orders of their clan, so 180 degree shifts in position are easily shrugged off.  Yes, Trump is the current capo d' tutti capo of that mafia family.  I'm not sure how permanent that is though.  

Eric the Green Wrote:Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

I'm sure of it. Whether it will prevail in actual elections remains to be seen.

And it depends on the quality and campaigning skill of the candidates, who actually gets elected. Some people are talking about AOC for president in 2024. I love her and support her work, but president? Democrats need to consider more carefully whom the independents and silent Democrats are likely to see as a leader, regardless of policies. My horoscope scores should be heeded. AOC doesn't measure up. She is just too small.

Kamala's score is 4-16. She is just not a very capable leader. People are not realizing this.

People have bigger problems in life than their "stars". FDR was a literal cripple, and somehow he turned out well.

The horoscope scores are a good indication of how well a candidate can connect with voters. Whether you believe this or not, the empirical research shows that the scores do correspond to performance remarkably well. FDR's score of 21-4 was one of the best ever.

Kamala Harris's campaign in 2020 fizzled as her audiences dwindled, because she doesn't connect well. Democrats will need to realize this in 2024. They can get away with Biden choosing a veep that may work for other reasons now. But when the campaign for 2024 starts, they'd better consider voter connectivity when they choose a presidential candidate. 

This candidate will need to be exceptionally capable in this regard, like Mitch Landrieu (score 16-2), and not exceptionally poor, like Kamala Harris (score 4-16), if they are going to win in 2024 and keep the pendulum from swinging back to the excrement called Republican presidencies as it has done ever since 1968.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentia...tions.html



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 18 poll averages

Swing states slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago.

National Biden +8.4
Arizona Biden +3.5
Colorado Biden +13.4
Florida Biden +5.3
Georgia Trump +0.9
Iowa Trump +1.4
Kansas Trump +9.1
Michigan Biden +7.4
Minnesota Biden +5.6
Missouri Trump +5.5
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.8
New Hampshire Biden +9.3
North Carolina Biden +1.3
Ohio Biden +0.5
Pennsylvania Biden +6.5
South Carolina Trump +6.5
Texas Trump +2.0
Utah Trump +11.1
Wisconsin Biden +6.7

The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.
(08-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-16-2020, 02:05 PM)RadianMay Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with you that civic education is severely lacking. Everywhere I go, it does seem to me that this country is a cultural vacuum, with people equating hedonistic entertainment with culture and vacuous expression with art. I too fall prey to this mindless drivel, losing hours of a day to reading and watching these things when I could be appreciating more intellectually stimulating media.

I think all through time there is a complaint that the younger people are seeking hedonistic art, unlike the supposedly intellectually superior elders.  I tend to see it as taste.  The elders will always tut tut the young.

The young are just growing up in an uglier world.  They see the ugliness.  Their art reflects that this ugliness makes the world go round.  I would like to respect the old arts of the awakening.  People like Bob Dylan and the Beatles had a real message in their time, at least when they were not proclaiming that she loves you, yeh, yah, yah.  Today?  It is as if the young were celebrating the ugliness.  I don’t expect that this reduces their cynicism any.

But I enjoyed the yeah yeah yeahs too. It was strong music. The most significant "message" of music is always in the music. Our cerebral and often heartless and insensitive culture neglects this fact. Today's "mindless drivel" doesn't generally measure up to the best of The Beatles' "mindless drivel," because it is less musical. Cynically celebrating ugliness indeed. That is a generalization of course, as there was some rather unmusical mindless drivel put out in their time as well, as there is in all modern commercial times. And no doubt some contemporary commercial mindless drivel is pretty good.

But the proliferation of garage bands and psychedelic pop arts of their time was a virtual renaissance, just because there was so MUCH of this wonderful (even if often mindless -- message-less) drivel, and sometimes it came with mindful messages and poetry as well. Bob Dylan was judged worthy of a Nobel Prize. Whatever prizes today's rap artists get is undeserved, IMNSHO. Mostly because of the way it's delivered.
I watched much of the convention last night.  It was interesting, though it did not go over much ground we haven't covered here.  I likely will watch less on the other three nights.

MSNBC had three female anchors commenting on the proceedings, but convention bits were canned and fast paced enough that the network didn't seem willing to break away often.  It seems they tried to make up for the lack of delegates using fast pace.  It felt more like a long political ad than a convention.  The minority group least represented between the Democrats and NBC was white males.  Of the two best known, both were chasing target audiences.  One was Republican and the other Bernie Sanders.

One line of the night was from a woman whose father was lost to the virus.  "His only preexisting condition was trusting Donald Trump."

Most or the other interesting lines came from Michelle Obama.  For stating opinions I have heard many a time here, she managed to say them well and intensely.  Worth a look.  MSNBC commented that the Republicans didn't have anyone to match her stature, and I tend to agree.
(08-16-2020, 08:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-16-2020, 06:10 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

Or sooner if it is clear that Trump is out.  I sort of expect an interesting transfer of power, but as soon as the transfer is apparent the progressives are apt to find their tongues.

Real change doesn't occur from the middle.  That's so blatantly obvious, I'm a bit ashamed to even type it.  Yet the PTB in the mainstream media and both non-Trumpian parties seem oblivious to that fact.  That only leaves one conclusion: real change is both scary and undesirable.  

The non-Trumpian GOP is simply hopeless, so ignore them for a moment.  What about the Dems?  How can change occur when the party is lead by octogenarians?  Fresh thinking rarely emerges from stale minds, and these folks are well past their use-by date.

During the unravelling we saw a great deal of change from the middle. The extremists set forth their opposing agendas, but it was the middle that flip flopped between the Republicans hurting minorities by cutting domestic spending, and the Democrats helping minorities by striving to do the opposite.

In a 4T the old values go away and those looking for radical change take advantage of the vacuum. You get real change from the extreme. You get transformation.

The blue agenda was put together when the supposedly stale minds were still agile. I kind of agree a less stale mind would be preferable to implement it. Still, everybody wanted to play it carefully. The Democratic primaries seemed to find an acceptable candidate to get rid of Trump and considered that defeat more important than what comes after.

Still, we know what has to be done. There will be no vacuum of people striving to do it. If the current nominated people do not push it, we get a repeat of this crisis in 2024. The conservatives will fall in love with their latest hero while Biden tries to hold off an aggressive challenger or three. Will the new hero be viable? Will the Democrats still feel in a mood to play it safe?

But I will worry about that next year. For now, we have to watch the election.
(08-16-2020, 08:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-16-2020, 06:10 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

Or sooner if it is clear that Trump is out.  I sort of expect an interesting transfer of power, but as soon as the transfer is apparent the progressives are apt to find their tongues.

Real change doesn't occur from the middle.  That's so blatantly obvious, I'm a bit ashamed to even type it.  Yet the PTB in the mainstream media and both non-Trumpian parties seem oblivious to that fact.  That only leaves one conclusion: real change is both scary and undesirable.  

The non-Trumpian GOP is simply hopeless, so ignore them for a moment.  What about the Dems?  How can change occur when the party is led by octogenarians?  Fresh thinking rarely emerges from stale minds, and these folks are well past their use-by date.

I certainly agree, lol. However, we are stuck with who steps up to run. The competition to Biden and Sanders were just not up to snuff. There was no Obama or Bill Clinton or even a Jimmy Carter among them. Not by a long shot. Better candidates need to come forth. I have yet to see one of them speak at the convention. And no-one seems able or willing to step into Nancy Pelosi's shoes either. Tim Ryan? Gimme a f**king break. Younger people often have stale minds too; youth is no guarantee.

The people may well decide just how far, and how long, our 4T goes. The leaders may have to comply; how soon we don't know. I mentioned in another thread that Mikebert's suggestion may come true, and the 4T last well into the 2030s. Our current state of affairs is not sustainable. But it will continue until the scary change is confronted. Not changing will become more scary than changing. When the thread entitled "Are we in a 4T or a 1T" appears here, I will still argue for 2008 for the start date, which is the date I originally predicted here and elsewhere based on my cosmic sources. These sources also say that the early years of our 1T could be like the early years of the saeculum that began in 1865, which some 4T fans say should be included in the civil war 4T. These sources also led me to say that real change in our 4T would not begin until this year. So it has begun.
(08-18-2020, 05:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]... Still, we know what has to be done.  There will be no vacuum of people striving to do it.  If the current nominated people do not push it, we get a repeat of this crisis in 2024.  The conservatives will fall in love with their latest hero while Biden tries to hold off an aggressive challenger or three.  Will the new hero be viable?  Will the Democrats still feel in a mood to play it safe?

But I will worry about that next year.  For now, we have to watch the election.

I think Joe Biden already knows that this is his swan song -- may even be running for that very reason. I see him as he is portraying himself: Healer In Chief. The real questions: did he pick Kamala Harris as his protégé or as a one term partner, and what are her intentions? Both Biden and Harris are Fixers, Not Visionaries, and we still need one of those if this 4T is to live up to it's billing.

So far, the GOP has created messes for the Dems to clean up so they can be pushed aside for new GOP messes. This is not a viable pattern in a 4T. All mainstream Dems seem genetically ill disposed to grow real spines and take the fight to the Republicans. It will take an AOC or someone of similar ilk to make that transition.
(08-19-2020, 09:04 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-18-2020, 05:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]... Still, we know what has to be done.  There will be no vacuum of people striving to do it.  If the current nominated people do not push it, we get a repeat of this crisis in 2024.  The conservatives will fall in love with their latest hero while Biden tries to hold off an aggressive challenger or three.  Will the new hero be viable?  Will the Democrats still feel in a mood to play it safe?

But I will worry about that next year.  For now, we have to watch the election.

I think Joe Biden already knows that this is his swan song -- may even be running for that very reason.  I see him as he is portraying himself: Healer In Chief. The real questions: did he pick Kamala Harris as his protégé or as a one term partner, and what are her intentions? Both Biden and Harris are Fixers, Not Visionaries, and we still need one of those if this 4T is to live up to it's billing.  

So far, the GOP has created messes for the Dems to clean up so they can be pushed aside for new GOP messes.  This is not a viable pattern in a 4T.  All mainstream Dems seem genetically ill disposed to grow real spines and take the fight to the Republicans. It will take an AOC or someone of similar ilk to make that transition.

It will have to happen, or else the people and the times will make the leader.

We need a visionary, but (s)he must also connect well and convince Americans that (s)he is a real leader. This comes from the heart and the gut, whereas Democrats too often stay in the head, and thereby lose.
(08-19-2020, 09:19 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-19-2020, 09:04 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-18-2020, 05:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]... Still, we know what has to be done.  There will be no vacuum of people striving to do it.  If the current nominated people do not push it, we get a repeat of this crisis in 2024.  The conservatives will fall in love with their latest hero while Biden tries to hold off an aggressive challenger or three.  Will the new hero be viable?  Will the Democrats still feel in a mood to play it safe?

But I will worry about that next year.  For now, we have to watch the election.

I think Joe Biden already knows that this is his swan song -- may even be running for that very reason.  I see him as he is portraying himself: Healer In Chief. The real questions: did he pick Kamala Harris as his protégé or as a one term partner, and what are her intentions? Both Biden and Harris are Fixers, Not Visionaries, and we still need one of those if this 4T is to live up to it's billing.  

So far, the GOP has created messes for the Dems to clean up so they can be pushed aside for new GOP messes.  This is not a viable pattern in a 4T.  All mainstream Dems seem genetically ill disposed to grow real spines and take the fight to the Republicans. It will take an AOC or someone of similar ilk to make that transition.

It will have to happen, or else the people and the times will make the leader.

We need a visionary, but (s)he must also connect well and convince Americans that (s)he is a real leader. This comes from the heart and the gut, whereas Democrats too often stay in the head, and thereby lose.

True enough. Republicans are always visceral, playing on the hate and fear aside of the ledger, but doing it effectively.  Transformation can't emerge from hate and fear, so the Dems had better find an inspiring message that connects on the positive side -- and soon. Catastrophic failure is a form of transformation too, just not one we should want to see, but Trump is playing that hand all-in.