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Could Trump pull off another upset?

https://www.axios.com/trump-upset-biden-...j7rWd8UxaM

The article makes good points, but I don't think the Republicans can make it stick that Biden and "Democrat-run cities" are causing or stoking the riots, such as they are, or that Trump's image is improving when it has been stuck at 41-42% for years.

The minimum scenario for Trump to win: recover Florida and North Carolina, but not AZ; keep the other tossup states, and the Maine and Nebraska districts, but lose in Minnesota and WI, and take PA. Win in the House of Reps. since they vote by state and not by individual membership.

The same scenario would work if Trump recovers AZ and keeps WI, but loses PA, in which case he wins outright 270 to 268. In other words, keep the states he won in 2016, and win just one of the three former blue-wall rust-belt states in won in 2016. But if Trump loses NE district 2, but wins only WI of the three, in this scenario, then the House decides.

[Image: eA7Rg]
270 to win polling averages:
Arizona Biden +3.6
Florida Biden +5.0
Georgia Biden +0.4
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +7.0
Maine 2 even
Michigan Biden +4.6
Minnesota Biden +4.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.0
North Carolina Biden +0.6
Ohio even
Pennsylvania Biden +5.6
South Carolina Trump +5.0
Texas Trump +2.7
Wisconsin Biden +5.2
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
A slight Republican gain has not held up too well, but we'll see...  unless the Biden margins in PA and WI go back above 7 percent, it's grounds for worry about a Trump upset.....


National Biden +8.8
Arizona Biden +4.2
Colorado Biden +14.3
Florida Biden +5.5
Georgia Trump +0.5
Iowa Trump +1.1
Kansas Trump +8.5
Michigan Biden +7.1
Minnesota Biden +5.5
Missouri Trump +5.0
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +7.8
New Hampshire Biden +8.9
North Carolina Biden +1.7
Ohio Trump +0.4
Pennsylvania Biden +5.6
South Carolina Trump +6.1
Texas Trump +1.1
Utah Trump +10.6
Virginia Biden +11.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
Donald Trump does not have the troops on his side, at least politically:

[Image: QETXYB4M5ZCUNDC2SAYSH5TN2Y.jpg]

[Image: KI5AQK3GZVEN5KJD27FITIPRP4.jpg]
I can just see Trump announcing that a recent poll shows significantly less than 10% of the troops have an unfavorable opinion of him, while a much larger group has a positive view.  Wink
Trump got his Bump. Whether from the convention or his calls for law and order after riots is not clear. Biden has launched a counter-attack and plans to visit swing states. So we'll see.

On real clear politics, the swing state averages are closing fast, but that's partly due to their emphasis on conservative polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Another conservative poll, Emerson, now gives Trump +2 job approval, though the average remains in the -9/10 range.
edited/revised Sept.1, 5:15 PM EDT

National Biden +7.1
Arizona Biden +4.0
Colorado Biden +12.1
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.9
Kansas Trump +9.5
Michigan Biden +6.5
Minnesota Biden +5.9
Missouri Trump +7.6
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +7.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +1.9
Pennsylvania Biden +4.7
South Carolina Trump +6.7
Texas Trump +1.5
Utah Trump +11.8
Virginia Biden +10.7
Wisconsin Biden +6.3

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

[Image: zrQlK]

State averages are also affected by the national average, and vice-versa, in the fivethirtyeight method. The map is based on those state averages as listed on the fivethirtyeight website, using the 270towin site to make the map, and using the 270towin designations where there are no polls on fivethirtyeight. On my map, +-3% is toss up, 3-9% is leaning (light color), 9-15% is likely, and 15+% is safe (deep color). Arkansas still has only 1 poll showing Trump +2%, but historically it is deep red so I keep it here as leaning Trump. Montana went over 9 points for Trump Aug.31, so I'll keep it as likely for now. Red = Republican (Trump), Blue = Democratic (Biden).

Trump is going to Kenosha Wisconsin today to stoke false fear of antifa and rioters. Kenosha County is something of a bellweather. It voted solidly for Obama, about 44 to 34 thousand, but voted for Trump by just over 200 votes. With a population of 100,000, the city itself is still 75% white with other races increasing. A former industrial town, white collar and high tech professions are growing. Biden will campaign in PA today.
"Chances are...."

The fivethirtyeight current forecast:

[Image: fivethirtyeight-2020-election-forecast]

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+).
Biden: 'Weak' Trump Has Fomented Violence in US Cities

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/biden-.../id/984665
(08-31-2020, 06:17 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Biden: 'Weak' Trump Has Fomented Violence in US Cities

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/biden-.../id/984665

This is a scathing review from a news site and magazine that list markedly to the Right. Joe Biden makes clear, virtually calling for the "pox on both houses" of extremists, Left and Right. Trump, in contrast, eggs on one side. 

At this point, Biden loses the potential vote of those who want things to get worse so that they can have a better chance of achieving 'their' totalitarian revolution.  Such people have, mercifully for America, typically had no home in the American political system. I would guess that Joe Biden will continue the "do the crime. do the time" attitude of Donald Trump's more illustrious predecessor.
Trump has certainly gotten a bump out of the RNC which was pretty successful. However the big test is now the debates. If Joe successfully turns up to all three and gives a decent performance, I think he could actually still pull a potential victory.

However if he fails to materialise, only has one debate or offers a teleprompter "we've heard it all before" response, then Trump I think will definitely win in 2020. 

To be honest though, the debates could backfire on Trump. If he goes into a long winded, insulting tirade against a weak Biden, people might actually feel sorry for the chap and he wins votes that way.

But there is one thing I can say for certain. Trump has radically changed the political landscape in America. So even if he loses, the whole concept of "America First" and eventually abandoning the U.S Empire is something that is going to stick around in the long term. It is inevitable on that front and I could see even a future Democratic administration voting to endorse such an isolationist concept later on down the pipe line.
270 to win polling averages:
Arizona Biden +4.7
Colorado Biden +10
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Biden +1.0
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +7.0
Maine 2 even
Michigan Biden +5.8
Minnesota Biden +3.7
New Hampshire Biden +8.0
North Carolina even
Ohio Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Biden +6.2
South Carolina Trump +5.0
Texas Trump +3.2
Wisconsin Biden +5.8
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
Trump invents new conspiracy theory to link rioters and looters to Joe Biden and the radical left, and praises QAnon and excuses his own vigilante that killed two people.

“A person was on a plane, said that there were about six people like that person, more or less, and what happened is the entire plane filled up with the looters, the rioters, the anarchists, people that were obviously looking for trouble and the person felt very uncomfortable on the plane,” Trump said Tuesday at Joint Base Andrews before departing to visit Kenosha, Wisconsin.....

The president has yet to reveal the identity of the person who allegedly saw the left-wing activists on the plane. “I will see whether or not I can get that person to speak to you but this was a first-hand account of a plane going from Washington to wherever and I’ll see if I can get that information for you, maybe they’ll speak to you, maybe they won’t,” he said Tuesday. ....

People that you haven't heard of. They are people that are on the streets, they're people that are controlling the streets. We had somebody get on a plane from a certain city this weekend,” Trump said. “And in the plane, it was almost completely loaded with thugs wearing these dark uniforms, black uniforms with gear and this and that. They're on a plane.”

Trump and his administration have continued to push fear of left-wing mobs while ignoring right-wing violence. After saying believers in the violent QAnon conspiracy theory “are people that love our country” last month, on Monday Trump said Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old accused of killing two people in Wisconsin last week, may have acted in self defense.

“That was an interesting situation. You saw the same tape as I saw and he was trying to get away from them I guess it looks like,” Trump said. “He fell and then they very violently attacked him and it was something that we’re looking at right now and it’s under investigation. But I guess he was in very big trouble ... he probably would have been killed.”

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/09...zj1eyoNuDR



(09-02-2020, 12:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Trump invents new conspiracy theory to link rioters and looters to Joe Biden and the radical left, and praises QAnon and excuses his own vigilante that killed two people.

“A person was on a plane, said that there were about six people like that person, more or less, and what happened is the entire plane filled up with the looters, the rioters, the anarchists, people that were obviously looking for trouble and the person felt very uncomfortable on the plane,” Trump said Tuesday at Joint Base Andrews before departing to visit Kenosha, Wisconsin.....

The president has yet to reveal the identity of the person who allegedly saw the left-wing activists on the plane. “I will see whether or not I can get that person to speak to you but this was a first-hand account of a plane going from Washington to wherever and I’ll see if I can get that information for you, maybe they’ll speak to you, maybe they won’t,” he said Tuesday. ....

People that you haven't heard of. They are people that are on the streets, they're people that are controlling the streets. We had somebody get on a plane from a certain city this weekend,” Trump said. “And in the plane, it was almost completely loaded with thugs wearing these dark uniforms, black uniforms with gear and this and that. They're on a plane.”

Trump and his administration have continued to push fear of left-wing mobs while ignoring right-wing violence. After saying believers in the violent QAnon conspiracy theory “are people that love our country” last month, on Monday Trump said Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old accused of killing two people in Wisconsin last week, may have acted in self defense.

“That was an interesting situation. You saw the same tape as I saw and he was trying to get away from them I guess it looks like,” Trump said. “He fell and then they very violently attacked him and it was something that we’re looking at right now and it’s under investigation. But I guess he was in very big trouble ... he probably would have been killed.”

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/09...zj1eyoNuDR




Jaw-dropping stuff. Looters and rioters coming by the plane-load?

The projection is deep. 

...All of the sudden I lost my connection to a bunch of websites, including YouTube..
Slight improvement for Biden nationally, but not in swing states, while Trump's job approval rating still improves.

National Biden +7.4
Arizona Biden +4.7
Colorado Biden +12.2
Florida Biden +4.1
Georgia Trump +1.4
Iowa Trump +1.7
Kansas Trump +9.3
Michigan Biden +6.5
Minnesota Biden +6.0
Missouri Trump +6.5
Montana Trump +8.6
Nevada Biden +6.5
New Hampshire Biden +8.1
North Carolina Biden +1.6
Ohio Trump +1.8
Pennsylvania Biden +4.3
South Carolina Trump +6.7
Texas Trump +1.5
Utah Trump +11.5
Virginia Biden +10.8
Wisconsin Biden +6.9

Trump disapproval +9.0
Trump's disapproval is back to pre-pandemic levels. I guess many stupid Americans agree with stupid Republicans and think the pandemic is over.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

Real Clear Politics has about the same numbers as fivethirtyeight right now. Disapproval +9.4, Biden +7.2
Anyone who thinks that the pandemic is over either isn't thinking.. or is wrong. Perhaps dead wrong, like the late Herman Cain, except for not being dead... yet.
I am really getting even more fed up each day with Trump and his supporters than I have been. My patience, such as it is, is running low.
If we say Biden will lose the states now polling under Biden +4.3, including PA and FL, but still carries AZ (now at Biden +4.7 on fivethirtyeight.com), then the election will hinge on Nebraska's 2nd district, which last time I check was polling Biden +6.

If this happens, the chances of winning the senate seats in Georgia and North Carolina go down. Also, one or two net faithless electors could give the election to Trump.

[Image: KQBjn]

270 to win polling averages Sept.2:
Arizona Biden +6.8
Colorado Biden +10
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.2
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +7.0
Maine 2 even
Michigan Biden +5.5
Minnesota Biden +3.7
New Hampshire Biden +8.0
North Carolina Biden +0.6
Ohio Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.4
South Carolina Trump +5.0
Texas Trump +3.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.1
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
(09-03-2020, 12:18 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I am really getting even more fed up each day with Trump and his supporters than I have been. My patience, such as it is, is running low.

I sympathize.  I think I have done an adequate job of timing my expectations.  The news shows are doing a pretty good job of counting down the days before election.  I think I've timed my patience with that.  Then again, I'm not spending a lot of time on worst case poll results.
MSNBC had a whole bunch of polls come in.  They have no significant change in the race shown, with Biden's lead at current 7.2% while a month ago it was 7.4%.  I'm pretty sure these polls were to get a feel for the two convention bounces, and they pretty much cancelled out.

It seems there is a new anti Trump book coming out every few days.  Trump is looking for a vaccine October surprise. There are still the debates coming.  Many who are not as much into politics as we generally are here start to become invested into the race after the conventions.

We'll see how it goes.
Former (Republican, Tea-Party type) Rick Snyder just endorsed Joe Biden. He is a piece of work, having acquiesced with Right-to-Work (for much less) legislation and of course the takeovers of largely-minority cities such as Detroit, Flint, and Benton Harbor by "emergency managers" who gut local politics in favor of more centralized authority of the State. Rick Snyder's economic policies are to make Michigan a typical Southern state in economics and social conditions... you know, no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns a profit.