Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(09-10-2016, 05:07 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 04:35 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 04:31 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 03:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 02:58 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]The Tri-County area is infested with a bunch of politically correct people virtue signaling assholes.  Like Eric the Obtuse they don't have enough sense to leave everyone else alone.  Its ironic when you think about it, if they weren't busy stealing from me and trying to run my life I wouldn't give a shit what they did.

Pay your taxes without complaint. Be a citizen.

Citizenship these days is badly overrated.  Medieval serfs got to keep more of their earnings.

They couldn't buy much with them, though, and they didn't have a government that served them in any way except (maybe) to protect them from brigands and other lords. Nor did they have any social and economic mobility, nor much freedom or much of a life. At least some Americans still have that mobility, though much less since the conservatives took over in 1980. What you forget is that quality of life is about more than just your own personal stash of money/wealth.

True enough but that society was the product of technological limits and the high costs of projecting force.  See Davidson and Rees-Mogg for a full explanation.  My personal quality of life is very much a function of the amount of my wealth that I can keep.  Actually, wealth inequality started getting worse in 1971 which was before Reagan.  An interesting year for a number of reasons.

I'm just starting into Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty.  One chart of interest shows income inequality restarting with Reagan and supply side over stimulus.  Interestingly, the period when America was great starts not with the New Deal, but with the massive taxes on the wealthy imposed to fight World War II.


The over all thesis of the book is interesting.

Thomas Piketty Wrote:When the rate of return on capital significantly exceeds the growth rate of the economy (as it did through much of history until the nineteenth century and as is likely to be the case again in the twenty-first century), then it logically follows that inherited wealth grows faster than output and income. People with inherited wealth need save only a portion of their income from capital to see that capital grow more quickly than the economy as a whole. Under such conditions, it is almost inevitable that inherited wealth will dominate wealth amassed from a lifetime’s labor by a wide margin, and the concentration of capital will attain extremely high levels—levels potentially incompatible with the meritocratic values and principles of social justice fundamental to modern democratic societies.

It's not an easy read.  Lots of data.  I'm not sure I'm enough into the numbers to work my way through it.  At a first look though, policies like the New Deal that reduce return on capitol and favor plowing profits back into the economy can blunt the effects of ever growing income equality.  However, such policies are historically rare.  

He reviews and disparages early historical economic theories.  These include pessimistic theories like Malthus and Marx predicting impending inevitable doom, and optimistic theories such as 1950's libertarianism that suggest free market forces will fix all if governments don't mess it up.  He illuminates and reviews the historical situations that led the historical writers to propose their theories, but points out that the data doesn't support the old theories.

He also shows a justified distrust for modern theoretical mathematical economics, saying a lot of work ought to be done and has been done collecting real world information on wealth distribution from sources such as tax records.  People just have to act on it.

An interesting book that confirms the blue approach to economics.

(09-10-2016, 03:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 02:58 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]The Tri-County area is infested with a bunch of politically correct people virtue signaling assholes.  Like Eric (insult redacted) they don't have enough sense to leave everyone else alone.  Its ironic when you think about it, if they weren't busy stealing from me and trying to run my life I wouldn't give a shit what they did.

Pay your taxes without complaint. Be a citizen.

Unless the government is grossly corrupt or incompetent, you generally get what you pay for. If you live in a giant city you require more services and more infrastructure. If you live in a rural area in which people must be more self-reliant and opportunities are few, then your taxes and cost of living can be low.

Now here might be a surprise: one might prefer the tax structure of one state to another. As a non-smoker and a near-non-drinker I might find ultra-conservative Utah a better bargain for taxes and public services than Kentucky, which pays more for public health because of the heavy smoking. Parks and recreation -- or medical treatment for cancerweed users?

My lungs and my liver might suggest that I am a Mormon.

(09-10-2016, 04:30 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]The Earth's temperature has varied by far more than the global warming people are whining about long before man ever showed up on the scene.  In the seventies no doubt you were whining about the impending ice age that everyone was predicting that strangely never happened.

The global warming debate is over. We had a whole thread on it, which I didn't even start. If you didn't read it, that is not my problem if you are still a denier. It just shows your level of awareness.
 

Quote:The funny thing about this graph is that the phrase global warming was replaced with climate change.  The policy prescription is always the same no matter what is used to make people panic: tax and regulate the shit out everyone.  

The funny thing is deniers keep mentioning that terminology change as if it meant something; as if terminology change was more important than climate change. That you fall for it shows how obtuse you really are. And we need to tax and regulate, but you guys seem to identity "everyone" with the oil and coal companies. Are you a gas company employee, or what Galen? What do you do up in Portlandia? Most folks there are well-informed. What are you doing in such an environmentally-aware, blue state? Why not move to Idaho and hang out with your own kind? There's lots of other deniers there, and a lot fewer vegans and bike riders. You might like it there better. They go out and hunt lots of meat there, and drive lots of gas-guzzling trucks. They guy here who thinks a lot like you, but is slightly-more of a gentleman, at least walks his talk. He lives out in the country, while you apparently hang out a lot in a city and get all bothered by all the liberals there.

Quote:You are an idiot if you think that pushing people around isn't going to generate this kind of response.  Add some economic stress and it gets even worse.  I have known quite a few southerners, nice people in general until you start fucking with them.  I don't recommend you going there because they will not react well to your smug self-righteous attitude.

In case you hadn't noticed (lol) I hadn't planned on going there. I don't think "pushing people around" is the best persuasive technique, but your definition includes regulations and taxes, so "pushing people" doesn't mean anything when YOU say it. Pay your freakin' taxes and stfu about it.

Quote:I don't agree with them in many respects but they aren't a problem because I don't do things to them for their own good and I don't treat them like idiots the way you would.  Funny how easy it is to get along with people who mind their own business.

Yeah, just let the rich and powerful screw up the world for the rest of us. No, the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for enough people to think like you and do nothing.

(09-10-2016, 02:26 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]The militant vegans have problems with Christianity as so many on the left do and so will not take advice from the Adventists. Which is why so many of them fuck up their health in the way the Seventh Day Adventists don't. Seattle is crowded and expensive, approaching San Francisco and Los Angeles levels. The Tri-County area is rapidly heading that way for much the same reasons with the added attraction of the Urban Growth Boundary. It really isn't all its cracked up to be except the crime rates are relatively low because of the concealed weapon permit holders. The muggers and car jackers hae a pretty hard time of it these days.

Talk about "none of my business." I don't care whether vegans screw up their health or not. It's up to them to find the path that works for them, both personally and for the planet. Maybe YOU are the one trying to push Christianity on THEM and giving them advice; I don't know what your problem is with them. If they push eating advice on to you, why not just politely say no thank you and go about YOUR business, and just let them try to push people around if they wanna? Especially if you are so sure it doesn't work! LIVE AND LET LIVE! I am past the time where I try to convert fundamentalist Christians away from their ways. If they want to try to convert me, let them. Good luck, pal; I say to them! Myself, I don't give anyone hell. I just speak the truth, as well as I know it, and some people THINK it's hell! Thank you Harry.

What you individualists don't understand is that you are not an individual. Now THAT's basic physics. Or just try to live without eating and breathing, or even being conscious. YOU ARE THE EARTH. ALL of it! You are part and parcel of others, and to deny that is the act of the ultimate denier. "Just mind your own business" is literally the attitude of an idiot. Put your head back in the sand, Galen. And when all else fails, say something stupid about guns and divert the topic into that never-ending debate!

(09-10-2016, 01:22 AM)taramarie Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 01:11 AM)gabrielle Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-07-2016, 09:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Having worked in retail soon after graduating from college (d@mned undiagnosed Asperger's!), I can tell you that retail sales clerks are among the laziest, stupidest, materialistic, and hollowest people that you will ever meet in the workplace. Those who don't fit that pattern simply took the job in desperation and believe that it is easier to get a job elsewhere if one can work nights and weekends (employers find such people hard to find and will accommodate that) and interview for jobs by day. Some go into the work saying things like "I don't want to be a mere office clerk or assembly-line worker"... and three months later they are happy that they got a job as an office clerk or an assembly-line worker. Turnover is high enough that someone can often get into a low-level managerial job (with similar pay and more responsibility) within a year. But being a 'manager trainee' means little on a curriculum vitae. People who have any intellectual substance or work ethic don't stay on that job for long. "Office clerk" has more promise for someone with a college degree.

Id you wonder why the traditional department store has practically disappeared in America (Kohl's, one of the biggest chains in America, has gone to a grocery-style checkout, which may be good for thwarting shoplifting) ... it's because American shoppers have caught on. If you want good advice on merchandise at Wal*Mart, then ask a fellow customer.

I work retail.  I work for a mid-size company that buys and sells books, games, music, movies, toys, comics and collectibles.  I am in charge of the book section, and we have a fairly large one in our store, thousands of titles.  I have a bachelor's degree in history.  It's not a prestigious or high paying job, but I like what I do.  I don't want an office job, sitting at a desk all day long, getting fatter and more unhealthy, doing boring repetitive work and seeing only the same few faces every day (whom I may or may not even like).  I sure as hell wouldn't want to be an assembly line worker.  I love books, love to see new titles and interesting things people bring in to sell.  I get to move around all day, shifting and shelving merchandise and keeping relatively fit, and occasionally do creative stuff like build and arrange my own displays.  A lot of families come into my store, and it's fun to help kids find the books and toys they want and show them books I liked as a kid.  I suppose I am not a terribly ambitious person, but I don't think I am "lazy, stupid, materialistic, and hollow."  And I like the majority of people I work with, thanks in large part due to shared interests related to the merchandise we sell.  Only a small minority over the years have proven to be dishonest. 

The irony of you writing that ignorant passage immediately following a criticism of Galen's prejudice against vegans.  "What people say about the rest of humanity as a whole says what that person is himself." 

Sorry everyone, had to get that off my chest.  Carry on with your Trump vs Clinton, red/blue divide conversation.

Btw i understand you getting it off your chest. It was totally called for. Hopefully it will educate a certain someone.

I was talking about the traditional department store, and I know of what I speak. The pay is near-minimum wage, so one can just imagine the quality that one finds among their employees. In a recession they might get someone with an 'unmarketable' college degree... who of course hates the job. Bookstores and (when they existed) record stores attracted a different sort of person. People can love the written word and the musical phase as I do, and that humanizes them.

I do spend time in bookstores, and I enjoy books. But bookstores seem to be a dying business.

(09-10-2016, 11:06 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]Wow!  You guys are gonna have a lot of fun with "Basket of
Deplorables!"

Here we go:

Quote:New York (CNN)

Hillary Clinton told an audience of donors Friday night that half of Donald Trump's supporters fall into "the basket of deplorables," meaning people who are racist, sexist, homophobic or xenophobic.
In an effort to explain the support behind Trump, Clinton went on to describe the rest of Trump supporters as people who are looking for change in any form because of economic anxiety and urged her supporters to empathize with them. "To just be grossly generalistic, you can put half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables," Clinton said. "Right? Racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, you name it."

She added, "And unfortunately, there are people like that and he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people, now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric."

Clinton went on to say that some of these people were "irredeemable" and "not America."

Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, quickly pounced on the remarks. "One day after promising to be aspirational & uplifting, Hillary insults millions of Americans. #desperate," she tweeted.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/h...index.html

[url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-basket-of-deplorables/index.html][/url]
Nobody likes being called racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, or (religiously) bigoted... but the descriptions are all cause for shame.

Bigotry in any form is an unwelcome character trait.

By the way -- what is the excuse for any lingering question that the President is not an American? I have more legitimate question about the loyalty of the Republican nominee for President.

She was quite correct, probably; but not wise to say it. Of course, Trump has made 1000x more gaffes than Hillary, but watch everyone jump on her.

She may have lost no votes among people who were never, ever, ever going to vote for her.

Yes, it is easy for liberals to kick racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, and religiously-bigoted people. Bigotry is practically illiberal by definition. But does one have a real excuse ion a world with so much sophistication to be racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, and religiously-bigoted? Anyone who has read The Diary of Anne Frank and To Kill a Mockingbird, standards of late-K-12 education,  has no excuse for racial or religious bigotry.

Donald Trump has scapegoated people who have gotten ahead of people who see themselves as salt of the earth -- but generally lacking in marketable skills. So if Mexican-American kids are doing better in school than their kids and getting better lives... then something must be wrong! Told by half-witted preachers that Muslims worship the "Moon God" Allah, that "Allah akbar" means "Kill Christians!", that Osama bin Laden is the true face of Islam, and that the President that offends them by being non-white is a Muslim, they see Muslims in much the same light as Germans who saw Jews as a devious conspiracy to dominate and exploit the world based on some Jewish conception or racial superiority and thus to be driven out.

So what if Donald Trump fails this time? The nastiness of hatred will be back in right-wing American politics. What used to be the fringe associated with likes like the Birch Society, Posse Comitatus, and Patriot movements have become mainstream within the Republican Party. To be sure, our economic order, one in which the primary objective of which is to maximize easy income for economic elites by enforcing hardship and fear upon everyone else, creates a populace  that feels that economic elites have cheated them but dares not blame those elites. But people full of fear of elites turns to 'safe" enemies that people can identify easily by some difference. Race. Rejection of heterosexual patriarchy. Ethnicity. Religion.

(09-10-2016, 02:12 PM)taramarie Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 01:20 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 01:22 AM)taramarie Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-10-2016, 01:11 AM)gabrielle Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-07-2016, 09:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Having worked in retail soon after graduating from college (d@mned undiagnosed Asperger's!), I can tell you that retail sales clerks are among the laziest, stupidest, materialistic, and hollowest people that you will ever meet in the workplace. Those who don't fit that pattern simply took the job in desperation and believe that it is easier to get a job elsewhere if one can work nights and weekends (employers find such people hard to find and will accommodate that) and interview for jobs by day. Some go into the work saying things like "I don't want to be a mere office clerk or assembly-line worker"... and three months later they are happy that they got a job as an office clerk or an assembly-line worker. Turnover is high enough that someone can often get into a low-level managerial job (with similar pay and more responsibility) within a year. But being a 'manager trainee' means little on a curriculum vitae. People who have any intellectual substance or work ethic don't stay on that job for long. "Office clerk" has more promise for someone with a college degree.

Id you wonder why the traditional department store has practically disappeared in America (Kohl's, one of the biggest chains in America, has gone to a grocery-style checkout, which may be good for thwarting shoplifting) ... it's because American shoppers have caught on. If you want good advice on merchandise at Wal*Mart, then ask a fellow customer.

I work retail.  I work for a mid-size company that buys and sells books, games, music, movies, toys, comics and collectibles.  I am in charge of the book section, and we have a fairly large one in our store, thousands of titles.  I have a bachelor's degree in history.  It's not a prestigious or high paying job, but I like what I do.  I don't want an office job, sitting at a desk all day long, getting fatter and more unhealthy, doing boring repetitive work and seeing only the same few faces every day (whom I may or may not even like).  I sure as hell wouldn't want to be an assembly line worker.  I love books, love to see new titles and interesting things people bring in to sell.  I get to move around all day, shifting and shelving merchandise and keeping relatively fit, and occasionally do creative stuff like build and arrange my own displays.  A lot of families come into my store, and it's fun to help kids find the books and toys they want and show them books I liked as a kid.  I suppose I am not a terribly ambitious person, but I don't think I am "lazy, stupid, materialistic, and hollow."  And I like the majority of people I work with, thanks in large part due to shared interests related to the merchandise we sell.  Only a small minority over the years have proven to be dishonest. 

The irony of you writing that ignorant passage immediately following a criticism of Galen's prejudice against vegans.  "What people say about the rest of humanity as a whole says what that person is himself." 

Sorry everyone, had to get that off my chest.  Carry on with your Trump vs Clinton, red/blue divide conversation.

Btw i understand you getting it off your chest. It was totally called for. Hopefully it will educate a certain someone.

I was talking about the traditional department store, and I know of what I speak. The pay is near-minimum wage, so one can just imagine the quality that one finds among their employees. In a recession they might get someone with an 'unmarketable' college degree... who of course hates the job. Bookstores and (when they existed) record stores attracted a different sort of person. People can love the written word and the musical phase as I do, and that humanizes them.

I do spend time in bookstores, and I enjoy books. But bookstores seem to be a dying business.

Yes because you automatically know of the person before you have met them.It tells me nothing of their character but it sure tells me a hell of a lot about what you are like. Judging a person because of the job they they take. Nice character trait Pbrower. You know nothing of the person nor why they took the job. How about going up to them and ASKING THEM why they are in that position hmm? Btw no i am not in that field. I am an Designer/animator/concept artist/visual story-teller. But I am also someone who gets to know people before I automatically judge and judging from what you have said so far disgusts me. This uppity attitude about lower class people and their culture is revolting and this is not the first time I have seen this from you. I have seen this in you several times enough to warrant a message about it from me. Get to know people before casting an instant judgement on them. May be asking too much though.

One can see norms -- and exceptions. Maybe the problem was the store that I worked for in a company now recognized as one of the worst for which to work. People were really paid next to minimum-wage but expected to be ferociously competitive on the job. They were expected to dress well on the job... and did, or they were gone. The company was heavily concentrated in the South, where rents and taxes were still low. This company could have never operated in high-living-cost areas in the Acela corridor (Boston to Washington) or California where people needed much more than the minimum wage, and so far as I know still does not. Workers there had nice clothes -- and nothing else.  The employee discount comes in handy for corporate needs.

With the possible exceptions of military service, fast food, and domestic service, no business pays worse. So, yes, imagine who gets to work there. Corporate culture was to push an obsession with "fashion".

Yes, we all have faults. I too, and I know it. Maybe if I hadn't had undiagnosed Asperger's and hadn't gotten such bad advice as my parents gave, I might have never ended up in that superficially-attractive, yet degrading place. Maybe I would not have as cynical a view of the American economy as I have.

A future president? Of whom?

It only makes sense to have a cynical view of the American economy as it is set up now. It is only a matter of studying it. No-one can help rubbing up against it in some personal way.

And it is Trump, not Hillary, who wants to "make America," and its economy, as much as possible, fully as it has been at its worst.

(09-10-2016, 03:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]She was quite correct, probably; but not wise to say it. Of course, Trump has made 1000x more gaffes than Hillary, but watch everyone jump on her.

And Trump has made 1000s of gaffes, and only apologized, sort of, once. And not even specifically. Hillary has already apologized for this specific comment (about the "basket of deplorables"). She was imitating Trump, though. He has rubbed off on her. She was working her crowd of donors, and got a laugh from this comment. So basically it was a sarcastic joke, maybe like Maher would make. It was similar to Romney's 47% gaffe in that respect though; he was working HIS crowd of donors too at the time.

The retailer for which I worked made it a point to not hire anyone taking college courses, and to fire anyone who started taking them. College courses made one less "flexible" to take whatever hours were requested, and suggested that one wanted some other career. So it may have been the company for which I worked -- and it was then and still is a nasty place to work. Maybe the company liked its employees to be overawed by the merchandise and the money that customers had.

So perhaps it was the company for which I worked.

It is worth noting that Starbucks, a coffee-house chain, now offers free tuition to its employees without a bachelor's degree to an on-line university for an accredited degree. A firm like Starbucks must believe that such is good for

(1) attracting desirable employees,
(2) retaining desirable employees, and
(3) creating better employees.

People better able to converse with clients might get customers to buy several coffee-based drinks instead of one. Those drinks are profitable. Turnover has always been a problem for low-wage employers of any kind, especially when the low-wage employer has obvious competition.

Getting the chance to keep wait and bar help for four years instead of four months might be worth it. To be sure, the degree isn't exactly from a renowned university, but what the heck?

...We may see such a change. So work for (name fast-food company, clothing store, etc.) and get a chance at a college degree. Graduate and you will be a more desirable employee there, but look elsewhere afterward if you get a degree in accounting? Then the company got a sandwich-maker or checker-cashier to stay much longer than is normal in the business.

At least the low-wage business got to solve part of its 'turnover' problem, and I don't mean that its peach turnovers failed.

It may be no coincidence that peaks of inequality of income happened just before the 1929 and 2008 crashes. It is arguable that much of the economic activity in America is economic rent, basically easy money that the economic elites extract from everyone else for the questionable privilege of living in the world that those elites literally own -- and the elites will not let us forget that they are the economic masters. But we dare not show dissent.

if you wonder why, despite such marvelous technology and inexpensive entertainment (and really, it is) and envy your grandparents living in the 1950s -- then you now know why.

Donald Trump said Friday night that he would shoot Iranian vessels "out of the water" if they bother American ships.

"Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats and they make gestures at our people that they shouldn't be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water," the GOP presidential candidate said at a campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-tr...ips-2016-9

(09-12-2016, 11:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

!?Töm bild här, varför?

The Washington Post concludes:

Imagine how history would judge today’s Americans if, looking back at this election, the record showed that voters empowered a dangerous man because of . . . a minor email scandal. There is no equivalence between Ms. Clinton’s wrongs and Mr. Trump’s manifest unfitness for office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...192ea49500

Trump’s Empire: A Maze of Debts and Opaque Ties
By SUSANNE CRAIG AUG. 20, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/pol...-debt.html

On the campaign trail, Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has sold himself as a businessman who has made billions of dollars and is beholden to no one.

But an investigation by The New York Times into the financial maze of Mr. Trump’s real estate holdings in the United States reveals that companies he owns have at least $650 million in debt — twice the amount than can be gleaned from public filings he has made as part of his bid for the White House. The Times’s inquiry also found that Mr. Trump’s fortunes depend deeply on a wide array of financial backers, including one he has cited in attacks during his campaign.

For example, an office building on Avenue of the Americas in Manhattan, of which Mr. Trump is part owner, carries a $950 million loan. Among the lenders: the Bank of China, one of the largest banks in a country that Mr. Trump has railed against as an economic foe of the United States, and Goldman Sachs, a financial institution he has said controls Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, after it paid her $675,000 in speaking fees.

Real estate projects often involve complex ownership and mortgage structures. And given Mr. Trump’s long real estate career in the United States and abroad, as well as his claim that his personal wealth exceeds $10 billion, it is safe to say that no previous major party presidential nominee has had finances nearly as complicated.

As president, Mr. Trump would have substantial sway over monetary and tax policy, as well as the power to make appointments that would directly affect his own financial empire. He would also wield influence over legislative issues that could have a significant impact on his net worth, and would have official dealings with countries in which he has business interests.

Yet The Times’s examination underscored how much of Mr. Trump’s business remains shrouded in mystery. He has declined to disclose his tax returns or allow an independent valuation of his assets......

That Actually Happened. Wasn't there a Broadway play called hairspray, or a movie, or somethin with music in it? It sure didn't make my best songs ever thread!