Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 06:18 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]There is a very long term way of looking at things which is laid out in the book The Cousin's Wars.  It proposes that the English Civil War started the split between what has become the modern red blue conflict.  There was an aristocratic, rural, high church cavalier faction, and a democratic, urban, low church roundhead faction.  The first immigrated to the southern states when they were losing, and the last immigrated to the north.  Both cultures made significant contributions, each in their own way, to how America evolved.

Still, it is generally the Roundhead pattern where equality, human rights and democracy is pushed forward.  The roundhead urban faction has wound up pushing the new values, the cavalier rural faction the old.

I suspect this has some bearing for why you are an advocate for the southern, rural, racist, red perspective of today.

Now I can't say that the cavalier culture hasn't contributed to America.  They just wind up supporting the racist violent element, which is a disadvantage when the 4T comes around.  They tend to get smoked.

How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

Rural areas would find themselves without the big urban markets for agricultural production. Oh -- so they would ship foodstuffs overseas for funds for the war? Most of the big port cities, including New Orleans and Houston, are liberal communities. Your beloved rural areas will lose a big market. 

Rural America gets much of its culture from liberal areas -- Hollywood, New York City, and even Nashville.  (Nashville is a fairly liberal city... and that's the center of country music in America.  Much of our GDP is intellectual property from movies to recorded music to books. The big publishing houses are in giant cities such as New York.  

Rural America would be missing much of the imported stuff from overseas as the ports are no longer yours. The shelves would be bare at Wal*Mart except for foodstuffs that are there. Your farmers would have to export food... which would be a big problem. 

You have a very narrow image of what constitutes America.

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

I'm not worried about suburbia. Right now suburbia is going big time towards Biden. The key is the virus. There are lots of people who value life, and more people are seeing the need for a scientific response, both for life and the economy. The idea of ignoring problems to keep government small and taxes low has gone way past the point of diminishing return. This is becoming obvious enough to a lot of people.

The rural militias are most concerned with the Second Amendment, and always have gone with democracy, no matter which way the transfer of power goes.

(07-20-2020, 11:33 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 02:38 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]You are defending the Confederates, which is racist. Stop denying that you are racist.

The Confederates were not Americans.

(North Americans though, I suppose, but not citizens of the USA)

Dude, there are no ex Confederates alive to defend these days. True, the Confederates weren't technically Americans during the Civil War years. You'll find that out and learn what it was like to be one of them soon enough as well. Like it or not, you are on the modern day version of the Confederate side today.

You admire the people who re-created the Confederate myth 105 years ago. That is when the Confederate statues started going up, fifty years after the end of the Civil War as the soldiers embarrassed and shamed by defeat were no longer around in large enough numbers to say no. 

1915 is also the year in which the second Ku Klux Klan was formed and when D. W. Griffith brought forth the movie spectacle The Birth of a Nation, the second half of which was a celebration of the eventual suppression of the Freedmen who had just been liberated from slavery and did what most Americans do when given a chance -- voting, running for public office, starting businesses, and getting formal education. Had Reconstruction succeeded the South might instead have become a rich land in which commerce and industry might have well served the agricultural economy. Blacks who had recently been slaves were forming banks and stores... which is about what most immigrant groups do. But free blacks had immigrated, so to speak, from enslavement to freedom and from feudal exploitation to capitalism. 

Let's not fool ourselves about the Second Klan. It had many of the characteristics -- violence, bigotry, cultural intolerance, and of course gaudy symbolism -- characteristic of fascist groups (including Mussolini's Blackshirts that would form later before such groups as the Nazi Party in Germany and Austria (and in German-speaking parts of Czechoslovakia), the Ustase in Croatia, the Arrow Cross in Hungary, and the Iron Guard in Romania. Those groups were ugly in different ways, but -- yes, all politically monstrous. 

Unlike the others, the second KKK failed before it could become a national power. This said, the Klan was far closer to achieving national power in America than the Nazis were in Germany in the mid-1920's. Not for export? There were Klan groups in Canada, and had the Klan taken over in America the word for Anschluss  would be undeniably Anglo-Saxon in origin. There was a short-lived Klan group that formed in Germany in the late 1920's, and it disbanded; its members chose to become Nazis. 

We will never know what a Klan-dominated America would be like... but I have contemplated a novel about an Axis victory in which Germany remains a democracy and Japan's early steps toward democracy fulfilled themselves. A hint on such a world: "Alaska" becomes "Arasuka" Prefecture in 1959, and Churchill and Adenauer basically switch roles in history. Fascistic leaders start wars but usually end up losing them. 

...at one point I saw America becoming rifted like Spain in the 1930's, with the more liberal parts of Spain being about as progressive as New England at the time and parts holding a nostalgia for a medieval and feudal ethos. Or maybe Yugoslavia in the 1990's along regional lines that reflect quasi-national divides. A hint: Boston has more in common with San Francisco than with central Pennsylvania. 

That opportunity for rending America in a civil war is almost certainly over. Your side lost the cultural struggle.

CNN opines that Trump's 'law and order' is starting to look like martial law.

If sending his secret police to cities under Democratic control consists of political harassment, that seems where we are going.  Will they have to start arresting federal cops for civil rights violations?

(07-20-2020, 10:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 06:18 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]There is a very long term way of looking at things which is laid out in the book The Cousin's Wars.  It proposes that the English Civil War started the split between what has become the modern red blue conflict.  There was an aristocratic, rural, high church cavalier faction, and a democratic, urban, low church roundhead faction.  The first immigrated to the southern states when they were losing, and the last immigrated to the north.  Both cultures made significant contributions, each in their own way, to how America evolved.

Still, it is generally the Roundhead pattern where equality, human rights and democracy is pushed forward.  The roundhead urban faction has wound up pushing the new values, the cavalier rural faction the old.

I suspect this has some bearing for why you are an advocate for the southern, rural, racist, red perspective of today.

Now I can't say that the cavalier culture hasn't contributed to America.  They just wind up supporting the racist violent element, which is a disadvantage when the 4T comes around.  They tend to get smoked.

How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

Liberal has gotten more Liberal as conservative has gotten more crazy conservative, and some suburbs are more diverse and thus more Democratic.

CA supplies most of the nation already. We'll be fine, unless too much of CA farm country refuses to go along with liberal America. Reds hate CA, but they forget how much they depend on us.

And, of course, blue America imports more. We have access to the sea and you guys don't.

You like American history. Do you remember which Jacksonian Democrat fought a war to conquer the SF Bay Area? Did you know that this president had a 22-2 horoscope score? There's even a street named after him in SF known for hosting a lot of gay stuff.

Really?? I disagree with you, Liberal has gotten less liberal and more crazy as the libertarian right has been gradually taking over the Republican party and changing the rules of the game. You think you are winning but I know you are loosing and boxing yourselves into a corner. Personally, I think Americans are content with watching how things eventually out in the cities. If I were you, I wouldn't expect much support with all the shit that America has seen lately. BTW, the President's name was James Polk.

(07-20-2020, 11:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 11:33 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 02:38 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]You are defending the Confederates, which is racist. Stop denying that you are racist.

The Confederates were not Americans.

(North Americans though, I suppose, but not citizens of the USA)

Dude, there are no ex Confederates alive to defend these days. True, the Confederates weren't technically Americans during the Civil War years. You'll find that out and learn what it was like to be one of them soon enough as well. Like it or not, you are on the modern day version of the Confederate side today.

You admire the people who re-created the Confederate myth 105 years ago. That is when the Confederate statues started going up, fifty years after the end of the Civil War as the soldiers embarrassed and shamed by defeat were no longer around in large enough numbers to say no. 

1915 is also the year in which the second Ku Klux Klan was formed and when D. W. Griffith brought forth the movie spectacle The Birth of a Nation, the second half of which was a celebration of the eventual suppression of the Freedmen who had just been liberated from slavery and did what most Americans do when given a chance -- voting, running for public office, starting businesses, and getting formal education. Had Reconstruction succeeded the South might instead have become a rich land in which commerce and industry might have well served the agricultural economy. Blacks who had recently been slaves were forming banks and stores... which is about what most immigrant groups do. But free blacks had immigrated, so to speak, from enslavement to freedom and from feudal exploitation to capitalism. 

Let's not fool ourselves about the Second Klan. It had many of the characteristics -- violence, bigotry, cultural intolerance, and of course gaudy symbolism -- characteristic of fascist groups (including Mussolini's Blackshirts that would form later before such groups as the Nazi Party in Germany and Austria (and in German-speaking parts of Czechoslovakia), the Ustase in Croatia, the Arrow Cross in Hungary, and the Iron Guard in Romania. Those groups were ugly in different ways, but -- yes, all politically monstrous. 

Unlike the others, the second KKK failed before it could become a national power. This said, the Klan was far closer to achieving national power in America than the Nazis were in Germany in the mid-1920's. Not for export? There were Klan groups in Canada, and had the Klan taken over in America the word for Anschluss  would be undeniably Anglo-Saxon in origin. There was a short-lived Klan group that formed in Germany in the late 1920's, and it disbanded; its members chose to become Nazis. 

We will never know what a Klan-dominated America would be like... but I have contemplated a novel about an Axis victory in which Germany remains a democracy and Japan's early steps toward democracy fulfilled themselves. A hint on such a world: "Alaska" becomes "Arasuka" Prefecture in 1959, and Churchill and Adenauer basically switch roles in history. Fascistic leaders start wars but usually end up losing them. 

...at one point I saw America becoming rifted like Spain in the 1930's, with the more liberal parts of Spain being about as progressive as New England at the time and parts holding a nostalgia for a medieval and feudal ethos. Or maybe Yugoslavia in the 1990's along regional lines that reflect quasi-national divides. A hint: Boston has more in common with San Francisco than with central Pennsylvania. 

That opportunity for rending America in a civil war is almost certainly over. Your side lost the cultural struggle.

Well, I see the bulk of the country remaining together as a few Democratic states (mainly cities) fight it out so to speak. We are seeing some signs of the cultural struggle that's occurring now. Your side of the Democratic spectrum appears be losing the cultural struggle. The Republican side hasn't committed and isn't directly involved yet and remains idle for the most part. By the way, the KKK failed because the northern Klan's viewed it more as social fraternity which were popular at the time than a political action group and they stopped being members when they found out what the Klan was doing to blacks in the South.

(07-20-2020, 11:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

I'm not worried about suburbia.  Right now suburbia is going big time towards Biden.  The key is the virus.  There are lots of people who value life, and more people are seeing the need for a scientific response, both for life and the economy.  The idea of ignoring problems to keep government small and taxes low has gone way past the point of diminishing return.  This is becoming obvious enough to a lot of people.

The rural militias are most concerned with the Second Amendment, and always have gone with democracy, no matter which way the transfer of power goes.

The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants and investment money flowing their way.

(07-21-2020, 10:27 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants  and investment money flowing their way.

If we agree that the virus is key, and solving the virus key to restoring the economy, Biden has that one.  The folks advocating and implementing a Scientific approach are getting high approvals.  The happy talk folk advocating opening up while the virus is not under control are getting low approvals.  It is leaning landslide.  The usual 4T.

The schools?  Trump wants to kill kids for a few approval points.  It will just sink him deeper.  Reopening after the curves are way down is possible, but Trump as never been one for that.  How to lose the parent's vote?

The violence?  The protests seemed to be winding down a month after George Floyd's death, but Trump is reigniting the violence sending his unmarked agents into blue cities and provoking.  If the stakes were not so high I would kinda like to lock the unmarked agents and the Boogaloo Bois into somewhere where they could enjoy each other's violence.  As is, the unmarked guys are targeting Black Lives Matter and the Boogaloo Bois are targeting the community.  Not constructive.  Still, Trump is leaving a door wide open for a Biden promise to end the violence.  It would be easy enough.

(07-21-2020, 09:40 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]Well, I see the bulk of the country remaining together as a few Democratic states (mainly cities) fight it out so to speak. We are seeing some signs of the cultural struggle that's occurring now. Your side of the Democratic spectrum appears be losing the cultural struggle. The Republican side hasn't committed and  isn't directly involved yet and remains idle for the most part. By the way, the KKK failed because the northern Klan's viewed it more as social fraternity which were popular at the time than a political action group and they stopped being members when they found out what the Klan was doing to blacks in the South.

I'm doubtful that the new values are losing.  The blue leaders just think they could do better when they have the White House and Senate.  The Republicans?  I see them less as sitting idle than turning blue.  Slip sliding away...

The modern incarnation of the KKK has been more protestor than terrorist, anyway, even in the south.  I suspect the recent incarnation is more titillated using the KKK name than serious terrorists anyway.

(07-21-2020, 11:27 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 10:27 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants  and investment money flowing their way.

If we agree that the virus is key, and solving the virus key to restoring the economy, Biden has that one.  The folks advocating and implementing a Scientific approach are getting high approvals.  The happy talk folk advocating opening up while the virus is not under control are getting low approvals.  It is leaning landslide.  The usual 4T.

The schools?  Trump wants to kill kids for a few approval points.  It will just sink him deeper.  Reopening after the curves are way down is possible, but Trump as never been one for that.  How to lose the parent's vote?

The violence?  The protests seemed to be winding down a month after George Floyd's death, but Trump is reigniting the violence sending his unmarked agents into blue cities and provoking.  If the stakes were not so high I would kinda like to lock the unmarked agents and the Boogaloo Bois into somewhere where they could enjoy each other's violence.  As is, the unmarked guys are targeting Black Lives Matter and the Boogaloo Bois are targeting the community.  Not constructive.  Still, Trump is leaving a door wide open for a Biden promise to end the violence.  It would be easy enough.

So, how long is Biden going to allow the violence to continue until he uses his political connections to end the violence. Do you know what your problem is Bob, you've failed to convince me that you and the liberals above you who are in charge of the mess that we are seeing right now actually care about the lives of black people who are living with and dying from the violence. At least I'm open about it but then again I don't view their lives as my responsibility or the party that I support these days.

So, who is funding Antifa and who is coordinating their efforts and supplying them with all the primate weapons these days? So, what is the American right supposed to do when it finds out that Democrats are in bed with those who are causing so much trouble for so during a national crisis for so many Americans and immigrants whose liberal ideology (live and let live) or religious beliefs or natural traits restricts them or prevents them from dealing with violence/violent people.

(07-21-2020, 11:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The modern incarnation of the KKK has been more protestor than terrorist, anyway, even in the south.  I suspect the recent incarnation is more titillated using the KKK name than serious terrorists anyway.

Yep. A couple dozen of them vs thousands seems pretty lop sided to me. But don't let that stop you from lying or scaring minorities enough to continue their support for Democrats. It's shitty but it still seems to work for the Democrats these days and winning is all that really matters right.

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, how long is Biden going to allow the violence to continue until he uses his political connections to end the violence. Do you know what your problem is Bob, you've failed to convince me that you and the liberals above you who are in charge of the mess that we are seeing right now actually care about the lives of black people who are living with and dying from the violence. At least I'm open about it but then again I don't view their lives as my responsibility or the party that I support these days.

The Antifa, or anti fascists, existed to counter demonstrate against the KKK and Neo Nazi. Since the Black Lives Matter demonstrations are far larger so the KKK and Neo Nazi kind of gave up, there has been no need for the Antifa to be active either. I suspect that many of them are protesting with the Black Lives Matter movement, but they have not been using the Antifa name. Why distract from the cause they are protesting for?

But a few reds are so detached from reality that they haven't noticed. They need something to work themselves up, so invoke the pre trigger organization that isn't really active anymore.

How could I wake you up and see reality? Kinda futile. Not really my job. You have assigned false motivations to keep your ideology intact in your own head. Making you notice your discrepancies and deal with the real motivations seems implausible at this point. Bigger protests? Collecting political capitol by passing legislation after collecting the White House and senate? Convicting racist and violent cops for their crimes? What would convince you that we are in earnest?

Is it in any way important? It is doing these things because black lives do matter that is important, not changing the alleged mind of someone clinging to old values.

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, who is funding Antifa and who is coordinating their efforts and supplying them with all  the primate weapons these days? So, what is the American right supposed to do when it finds out that Democrats are in bed with those who are causing so much trouble for so during a national crisis for so many Americans and immigrants whose liberal ideology (live and let live) or religious beliefs or natural traits restricts them or prevents them from dealing with  violence/violent people.

No one is funding the Antifa, but a few reds are so detached from reality that they haven't noticed.

(07-21-2020, 11:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 09:40 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]Well, I see the bulk of the country remaining together as a few Democratic states (mainly cities) fight it out so to speak. We are seeing some signs of the cultural struggle that's occurring now. Your side of the Democratic spectrum appears be losing the cultural struggle. The Republican side hasn't committed and  isn't directly involved yet and remains idle for the most part. By the way, the KKK failed because the northern Klan's viewed it more as social fraternity which were popular at the time than a political action group and they stopped being members when they found out what the Klan was doing to blacks in the South.

I'm doubtful that the new values are losing.  The blue leaders just think they could do better when they have the White House and Senate.  The Republicans?  I see them less as sitting idle than turning blue.  Slip sliding away...

The modern incarnation of the KKK has been more protestor than terrorist, anyway, even in the south.  I suspect the recent incarnation is more titillated using the KKK name than serious terrorists anyway.

So, what are the new values? I'm just curious to see how many we'll have in common?

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 11:27 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 10:27 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants  and investment money flowing their way.

If we agree that the virus is key, and solving the virus key to restoring the economy, Biden has that one.  The folks advocating and implementing a Scientific approach are getting high approvals.  The happy talk folk advocating opening up while the virus is not under control are getting low approvals.  It is leaning landslide.  The usual 4T.

The schools?  Trump wants to kill kids for a few approval points.  It will just sink him deeper.  Reopening after the curves are way down is possible, but Trump as never been one for that.  How to lose the parent's vote?

The violence?  The protests seemed to be winding down a month after George Floyd's death, but Trump is reigniting the violence sending his unmarked agents into blue cities and provoking.  If the stakes were not so high I would kinda like to lock the unmarked agents and the Boogaloo Bois into somewhere where they could enjoy each other's violence.  As is, the unmarked guys are targeting Black Lives Matter and the Boogaloo Bois are targeting the community.  Not constructive.  Still, Trump is leaving a door wide open for a Biden promise to end the violence.  It would be easy enough.

So, how long is Biden going to allow the violence to continue until he uses his political connections to end the violence. Do you know what your problem is Bob, you've failed to convince me that you and the liberals above you who are in charge of the mess that we are seeing right now actually care about the lives of black people who are living with and dying from the violence. At least I'm open about it but then again I don't view their lives as my responsibility or the party that I support these days.

So, who is funding Antifa and who is coordinating their efforts and supplying them with all  the primate weapons these days? So, what is the American right supposed to do when it finds out that Democrats are in bed with those who are causing so much trouble for so during a national crisis for so many Americans and immigrants whose liberal ideology (live and let live) or religious beliefs or natural traits restricts them or prevents them from dealing with  violence/violent people.

Antifa is not causing violence. Trump is. I don't know what the American right can do about its fantasies.

There has been a spike in violent crime on some days in some places. Trump doesn't have the sense to deal with it. So we'll see what Biden can do, if anything. He is not in favor of defunding the police and allowing violent crime. Local authorities are primarily responsible for controlling crime, reforming police and improving social and economic conditions. I would like to see them get more proactive in this, and to get help from a new president and congress.

(07-21-2020, 04:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, who is funding Antifa and who is coordinating their efforts and supplying them with all  the primate weapons these days? So, what is the American right supposed to do when it finds out that Democrats are in bed with those who are causing so much trouble for so during a national crisis for so many Americans and immigrants whose liberal ideology (live and let live) or religious beliefs or natural traits restricts them or prevents them from dealing with  violence/violent people.

No one is funding the Antifa, but a few reds are so detached from reality that they haven't noticed.

That's the rub, isn't it. Antifa is an idea, not a movement or even a group. Back when they were still active, I'm sure that the Antifa protestors got some help from their friends, but only enough to afford attending without starving.

(07-21-2020, 09:40 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 11:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 11:33 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 02:38 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]You are defending the Confederates, which is racist. Stop denying that you are racist.

The Confederates were not Americans.

(North Americans though, I suppose, but not citizens of the USA)

Dude, there are no ex Confederates alive to defend these days. True, the Confederates weren't technically Americans during the Civil War years. You'll find that out and learn what it was like to be one of them soon enough as well. Like it or not, you are on the modern day version of the Confederate side today.

You admire the people who re-created the Confederate myth 105 years ago. That is when the Confederate statues started going up, fifty years after the end of the Civil War as the soldiers embarrassed and shamed by defeat were no longer around in large enough numbers to say no. 

1915 is also the year in which the second Ku Klux Klan was formed and when D. W. Griffith brought forth the movie spectacle The Birth of a Nation, the second half of which was a celebration of the eventual suppression of the Freedmen who had just been liberated from slavery and did what most Americans do when given a chance -- voting, running for public office, starting businesses, and getting formal education. Had Reconstruction succeeded the South might instead have become a rich land in which commerce and industry might have well served the agricultural economy. Blacks who had recently been slaves were forming banks and stores... which is about what most immigrant groups do. But free blacks had immigrated, so to speak, from enslavement to freedom and from feudal exploitation to capitalism. 

Let's not fool ourselves about the Second Klan. It had many of the characteristics -- violence, bigotry, cultural intolerance, and of course gaudy symbolism -- characteristic of fascist groups (including Mussolini's Blackshirts that would form later before such groups as the Nazi Party in Germany and Austria (and in German-speaking parts of Czechoslovakia), the Ustase in Croatia, the Arrow Cross in Hungary, and the Iron Guard in Romania. Those groups were ugly in different ways, but -- yes, all politically monstrous. 

Unlike the others, the second KKK failed before it could become a national power. This said, the Klan was far closer to achieving national power in America than the Nazis were in Germany in the mid-1920's. Not for export? There were Klan groups in Canada, and had the Klan taken over in America the word for Anschluss  would be undeniably Anglo-Saxon in origin. There was a short-lived Klan group that formed in Germany in the late 1920's, and it disbanded; its members chose to become Nazis. 

We will never know what a Klan-dominated America would be like... but I have contemplated a novel about an Axis victory in which Germany remains a democracy and Japan's early steps toward democracy fulfilled themselves. A hint on such a world: "Alaska" becomes "Arasuka" Prefecture in 1959, and Churchill and Adenauer basically switch roles in history. Fascistic leaders start wars but usually end up losing them. 

...at one point I saw America becoming rifted like Spain in the 1930's, with the more liberal parts of Spain being about as progressive as New England at the time and parts holding a nostalgia for a medieval and feudal ethos. Or maybe Yugoslavia in the 1990's along regional lines that reflect quasi-national divides. A hint: Boston has more in common with San Francisco than with central Pennsylvania. 

That opportunity for rending America in a civil war is almost certainly over. Your side lost the cultural struggle.

Well, I see the bulk of the country remaining together as a few Democratic states (mainly cities) fight it out so to speak. We are seeing some signs of the cultural struggle that's occurring now. Your side of the Democratic spectrum appears be losing the cultural struggle. The Republican side hasn't committed and  isn't directly involved yet and remains idle for the most part. By the way, the KKK failed because the northern Klan's viewed it more as social fraternity which were popular at the time than a political action group and they stopped being members when they found out what the Klan was doing to blacks in the South.

My take on what it means to be an American is that there are many different ways in which to be an American. There is no single American culture, and there has never been one since the first people came to America through the (now-inundated)  Bering land bridge during the glacial maximum and spread from Alaska to the south and east and broke into tribes. 

The recent cultural struggle has been an attempt to meld cultures of two regional zones of America -- the Mountain South (Appalachia and the Ozarks after that culture developed a Fundamentalist-Evangelical bloc highly reactionary in its values) and the relatively-homogeneous culture of white people of the Deep South. Both cultures are anti-intellectual and racist and see anything different -- that is, cosmopolitan -- as suspect. About fifty years ago Southern whites were beginning to recognize that they had something in common in culture with Southern blacks, basically that one of those cultures cannot survive well if the other struggles just to thrive... but that came to an end. 

Most Americans have begun to recognize that "Us" and "Them" is good only for dividing people and diverting them from their real needs, including dignity in the workforce. Different as the black bourgeoisie, Jews, Arab-Americans, Asian-Americans (as if Asian Indians have much in common with Filipinos or Koreans), and middle-class Hispanics are in culture they seem to vote alike even if their stomachs turn if they had to eat much of the same cuisine. America's model minorities are basically on the liberal side of the political spectrum even if they are arch-conservatives on culture. 

Add to this, many white people despise the attempt of the Hard Right to impress upon them an anti-intellectual culture that can only doom them to poverty. I am one of those. 

...as for the extreme, fascistic Right -- it includes people who have merged Klan and Nazi ideology. The (second) 1915 Klan and the German Nazi Party shared the same racism and Jew-hatred. The problem for bringing the KKK and the Nazis together was that as long as the Nazis were decidedly German they were too 'exotic' for Kluxers who thought themselves "100% American".  

OK, J S Bach isn't American. Neither is Fyodor Dostoevsky. If I had the money I would surround myself with Japanese prints. Put those together and not one of those is American. Put those together in some syncresis -- and that is very American. 

Consider some kid's birthday party. Pizza is the main course, and perhaps the kids smash a pinata to unleash the goodies. The pizza is Italian, and the pinata is Mexican. Kid with an Italian-American parent and a Mexican-American parent? Maybe. That is American itself. The child might go by the name of Linda Schmidt... and the surname suggests the ancestry that you might expect. 

You can call people like me "rootless cosmopolites" if you wish (a warning: Josef Stalin used that term to describe Jews when he started to sour on them) ... but you cannot define what it means to be an American. I don't try. This said, it is un-American to promote terrorist violence or to seek  to divide us into "us" and "them".

(07-21-2020, 10:27 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 11:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

I'm not worried about suburbia.  Right now suburbia is going big time towards Biden.  The key is the virus.  There are lots of people who value life, and more people are seeing the need for a scientific response, both for life and the economy.  The idea of ignoring problems to keep government small and taxes low has gone way past the point of diminishing return.  This is becoming obvious enough to a lot of people.

The rural militias are most concerned with the Second Amendment, and always have gone with democracy, no matter which way the transfer of power goes.

The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants  and investment money flowing their way.

The Lichtman Keys are a good model of such "keys." Right now Donald Trump is trying hard to turn Key 8, the social unrest key, against himself, by provoking demonstrations and protests and trying to provoke violence by violently suppressing peaceful protest. This is the kind of behavior we see in Syria or China, and it will be resisted. Trump promises to bring his gestapo tactics from Portland to Seattle, Chicago and Oakland and to all the blue cities. So he is trying his best to turn key 8 against himself. We'll see what Lichtman himself says at the end of the month.

Lichtman gives Trump credit for changing national policy, Key #7, but this author from soapboxie (link below) does not, and I can't see that Trump has changed any national policy. His only legislative achievement is to continue the Reagan/Bush tax cut policy. He weakened Obamacare by destroying the national mandate, but the ACA is still there and his promised replacement never happens. Violating national law by not enforcing laws on pollution and by breaking laws on asylum is not a change in national policy, but mere failure to carry it out.

Some people argue that Trump's defeat of the IS turned Key 11 in favor if Trump. I argue that he just completed a policy that Obama had created, and eventually defeated his own policy by allowing IS terrorists to go free and betraying the Kurds who did most of the fighting.

I think Key 5, short term economy, has already turned against Trump, and Key 6 long-term economic performance may turn against him as well. But Lichtman himself will make a decision on this at the end of July, we think. The corona virus has gotten worse and put more people out of work. Although his task force team has done some work, it has not stopped the virus, and now it appears likely it will continue to threaten us for the rest of the year. I don't see how economic performance can improve under these conditions, but technically keys 5 and 6 remain uncertain.

6 Keys must turn false for Trump to lose. Including Key 7 (which Lichtman doesn't turn false, but soapboxie does), 5 have turned false:

Key 1: the Democrats took back the House, so Trump's party has lost ground since the previous midterm
Key 7: Trump has accomplished no major changes in domestic policy
Key 9: Scandal is ongoing in this administration
Key 11: Trump has not achieved a major foreign policy success
Key 12: the incumbent is not charismatic or a national hero

Keys now turning false against Trump, but still uncertain:

Key 5: short term economy not in recession during the campaign
Key 6: long term GDP surpasses that of the previous 2 terms
Key 8: social unrest not happening

Keys holding true for Trump, as of now:

Key 2: Incumbent's party nomination is not contested.
Key 3: The incumbent party's nominee is the current president
Key 4: No important third party or independent challenge
Key 10: Trump admin has not had a major foreign policy defeat or failure
Key 13: Challenging candidate is not charismatic or a national hero

https://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Predic...rn-in-2020

(07-21-2020, 04:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, how long is Biden going to allow the violence to continue until he uses his political connections to end the violence. Do you know what your problem is Bob, you've failed to convince me that you and the liberals above you who are in charge of the mess that we are seeing right now actually care about the lives of black people who are living with and dying from the violence. At least I'm open about it but then again I don't view their lives as my responsibility or the party that I support these days.

The Antifa, or anti fascists, existed to counter demonstrate against the KKK and Neo Nazi.  Since the Black Lives Matter demonstrations are far larger so the KKK and Neo Nazi kind of gave up, there has been no need for the Antifa to be active either.  I suspect that many of them are protesting with the Black Lives Matter movement, but they have not been using the Antifa name.  Why distract from the cause they are protesting for?

But a few reds are so detached from reality that they haven't noticed.  They need something to work themselves up, so invoke the pre trigger organization that isn't really active anymore.

How could I wake you up and see reality?  Kinda futile.  Not really my job.  You have assigned false motivations to keep your ideology intact in your own head.  Making you notice your discrepancies and deal with the real motivations seems implausible at this point.  Bigger protests?  Collecting political capitol by passing legislation after collecting the White House and senate?  Convicting racist and violent cops for their crimes?  What would convince you that we are in earnest?  

Is it in any way important?  It is doing these things because black lives do matter that is important, not changing the alleged mind of someone clinging to old values.

(07-21-2020, 04:10 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, who is funding Antifa and who is coordinating their efforts and supplying them with all  the primate weapons these days? So, what is the American right supposed to do when it finds out that Democrats are in bed with those who are causing so much trouble for so during a national crisis for so many Americans and immigrants whose liberal ideology (live and let live) or religious beliefs or natural traits restricts them or prevents them from dealing with  violence/violent people.

No one is funding the Antifa, but a few reds are so detached from reality that they haven't noticed.

It takes organization and funding and resources to pull off what we've seen occur across the country. That's a reality determined by use of common sense. I can't speak for you but the American ideology has served me well. I assume based on your financial situation that you've shared that the American ideology served you well too. I forget that you had a brain tumor that was surgically removed not so long ago. The liberals do a very good job at working me up.

(07-21-2020, 04:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]So, what are the new values? I'm just curious to see how many we'll have in common?

Part of the new values is the cycles.  In the crisis, you see a willingness to sacrifice for the common good, which includes a willingness to pay for it.  In an unravelling there is a selfishness.  This time around it took the shape of not solving problems, low taxes and small government.  This puts progressives on top come the high, a more conservative flow in the unravelling.  Repeat as the cycles go around.

I view it also as part of the age perspective.  Things were ugly in the Agricultural Age.  With the Enlightenment came the arrow of progress, away from the Agricultural Age, towards democracy, human rights and equality.  Each crisis, the most severe problems facing the culture come to the fore to move us further along.  They are related to democracy, human rights and equality.  This time around and thus far, racism and COVUS 19 have become the core problems to be addressed.  At the moment, the Democrats look like they will acquire power, and other issues will be addressed by their agenda.  Thus far global warming, fixing the bridges and poverty look like they might bubble up, but the economy looks to be in bad shape as a result of the virus, so it is not certain that they will.

But that is my perspective.  Many blues have not thought as much on history or seen the patterns.  They think more that this time period stands alone, and do not perceive the larger patterns, the cycles or ages.  They will look at the need to solve COVUS 19 and face down violent racist policing as more unique issues of this time, not as part of a larger pattern that has been going on for centuries.

The opposite older values?  Finding a reason to continue the selfish attitude and deny the problems which have to be solved.  Keep the unraveling selfishness.  Yell fake news or hoax whenever a problem that others want to solve comes up.

Thing is, you can’t do that with COVUS 19.  Try, and it will kill you.  It is also hard to ignore the protests.  When enough people cry change loud enough, even something a stubborn as culture has to give.  Other problems such as global warming and the bridges are slow.  You can get away with putting them off and letting other generations deal with them.  That is why the virus makes a good trigger.  The incubation time is short enough that you can’t not see it, you can’t remain committed to selfishness and not solving problems.

Others will see the new values a bit differently.  Other versions of them would be welcome.

(07-21-2020, 07:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]It takes organization and funding and resources to pull off what we've seen occur across the country. That's a reality determined by use of common sense.

How much energy does it take to watch for KKK or Neo Nazi protests, and to send please show up notices to a mailing list? Not hard. Not requiring a lot of money. Individual Antifa members handle transportation costs to get there. Not a big deal financially.

Black Lives Matter? I imagine they have more organization, a national committee. Still, for most sympathizers, they handle their own costs for things like transportation. You just hop into your car and show up in the local city.

The Boogaloo Bois are deliberately trying to minimize organization. The less organization you have, the harder you are to infiltrate. It is enough to watch for protests on any issue which might distract the police, then take advantage of the distraction.

The Democratic Party? I quite believe they have a large budget, committees, structure, and organization. But then, so do the Republicans.